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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 August 2021

Kailun Feng, Shiwei Chen, Weizhuo Lu, Shuo Wang, Bin Yang, Chengshuang Sun and Yaowu Wang

Simulation-based optimisation (SO) is a popular optimisation approach for building and civil engineering construction planning. However, in the framework of SO, the simulation is…

1364

Abstract

Purpose

Simulation-based optimisation (SO) is a popular optimisation approach for building and civil engineering construction planning. However, in the framework of SO, the simulation is continuously invoked during the optimisation trajectory, which increases the computational loads to levels unrealistic for timely construction decisions. Modification on the optimisation settings such as reducing searching ability is a popular method to address this challenge, but the quality measurement of the obtained optimal decisions, also termed as optimisation quality, is also reduced by this setting. Therefore, this study aims to develop an optimisation approach for construction planning that reduces the high computational loads of SO and provides reliable optimisation quality simultaneously.

Design/methodology/approach

This study proposes the optimisation approach by modifying the SO framework through establishing an embedded connection between simulation and optimisation technologies. This approach reduces the computational loads and ensures the optimisation quality associated with the conventional SO approach by accurately learning the knowledge from construction simulations using embedded ensemble learning algorithms, which automatically provides efficient and reliable fitness evaluations for optimisation iterations.

Findings

A large-scale project application shows that the proposed approach was able to reduce computational loads of SO by approximately 90%. Meanwhile, the proposed approach outperformed SO in terms of optimisation quality when the optimisation has limited searching ability.

Originality/value

The core contribution of this research is to provide an innovative method that improves efficiency and ensures effectiveness, simultaneously, of the well-known SO approach in construction applications. The proposed method is an alternative approach to SO that can run on standard computing platforms and support nearly real-time construction on-site decision-making.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 30 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 September 2023

Paravee Maneejuk, Binxiong Zou and Woraphon Yamaka

The primary objective of this study is to investigate whether the inclusion of convertible bond prices as important inputs into artificial neural networks can lead to improved…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this study is to investigate whether the inclusion of convertible bond prices as important inputs into artificial neural networks can lead to improved accuracy in predicting Chinese stock prices. This novel approach aims to uncover the latent potential inherent in convertible bond dynamics, ultimately resulting in enhanced precision when forecasting stock prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employed two machine learning models, namely the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model and the extreme learning machine neural networks (ELMNN) model, on empirical Chinese financial time series data.

Findings

The results showed that the convertible bond price had a strong predictive power for low-market-value stocks but not for high-market-value stocks. The BPNN algorithm performed better than the ELMNN algorithm in predicting stock prices using the convertible bond price as an input indicator for low-market-value stocks. In contrast, ELMNN showed a significant decrease in prediction accuracy when the convertible bond price was added.

Originality/value

This study represents the initial endeavor to integrate convertible bond data into both the BPNN model and the ELMNN model for the purpose of predicting Chinese stock prices.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 7 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 July 2020

E.N. Osegi

In this paper, an emerging state-of-the-art machine intelligence technique called the Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is applied to the task of short-term load forecasting…

Abstract

In this paper, an emerging state-of-the-art machine intelligence technique called the Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is applied to the task of short-term load forecasting (STLF). A HTM Spatial Pooler (HTM-SP) stage is used to continually form sparse distributed representations (SDRs) from a univariate load time series data, a temporal aggregator is used to transform the SDRs into a sequential bivariate representation space and an overlap classifier makes temporal classifications from the bivariate SDRs through time. The comparative performance of HTM on several daily electrical load time series data including the Eunite competition dataset and the Polish power system dataset from 2002 to 2004 are presented. The robustness performance of HTM is also further validated using hourly load data from three more recent electricity markets. The results obtained from experimenting with the Eunite and Polish dataset indicated that HTM will perform better than the existing techniques reported in the literature. In general, the robustness test also shows that the error distribution performance of the proposed HTM technique is positively skewed for most of the years considered and with kurtosis values mostly lower than a base value of 3 indicating a reasonable level of outlier rejections.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 July 2020

Harleen Kaur and Vinita Kumari

Diabetes is a major metabolic disorder which can affect entire body system adversely. Undiagnosed diabetes can increase the risk of cardiac stroke, diabetic nephropathy and other…

11338

Abstract

Diabetes is a major metabolic disorder which can affect entire body system adversely. Undiagnosed diabetes can increase the risk of cardiac stroke, diabetic nephropathy and other disorders. All over the world millions of people are affected by this disease. Early detection of diabetes is very important to maintain a healthy life. This disease is a reason of global concern as the cases of diabetes are rising rapidly. Machine learning (ML) is a computational method for automatic learning from experience and improves the performance to make more accurate predictions. In the current research we have utilized machine learning technique in Pima Indian diabetes dataset to develop trends and detect patterns with risk factors using R data manipulation tool. To classify the patients into diabetic and non-diabetic we have developed and analyzed five different predictive models using R data manipulation tool. For this purpose we used supervised machine learning algorithms namely linear kernel support vector machine (SVM-linear), radial basis function (RBF) kernel support vector machine, k-nearest neighbour (k-NN), artificial neural network (ANN) and multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR).

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 March 2023

Tangjian Wei, Xingqi Yang, Guangming Xu and Feng Shi

This paper aims to propose a medium-term forecast model for the daily passenger volume of High Speed Railway (HSR) systems to predict the daily the Origin-Destination (OD) daily…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a medium-term forecast model for the daily passenger volume of High Speed Railway (HSR) systems to predict the daily the Origin-Destination (OD) daily volume for multiple consecutive days (e.g. 120 days).

Design/methodology/approach

By analyzing the characteristics of the historical data on daily passenger volume of HSR systems, the date and holiday labels were designed with determined value ranges. In accordance to the autoregressive characteristics of the daily passenger volume of HSR, the Double Layer Parallel Wavelet Neural Network (DLP-WNN) model suitable for the medium-term (about 120 d) forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR was established. The DLP-WNN model obtains the daily forecast result by weighed summation of the daily output values of the two subnets. Subnet 1 reflects the overall trend of daily passenger volumes in the recent period, and subnet 2 the daily fluctuation of the daily passenger volume to ensure the accuracy of medium-term forecast.

Findings

According to the example application, in which the DLP-WNN model was used for the medium-term forecast of the daily passenger volumes for 120 days for typical O-D pairs at 4 different distances, the average absolute percentage error is 7%-12%, obviously lower than the results measured by the Back Propagation (BP) neural network, the ELM (extreme learning machine), the ELMAN neural network, the GRNN (generalized regression neural network) and the VMD-GA-BP. The DLP-WNN model was verified to be suitable for the medium-term forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR.

Originality/value

This study proposed a Double Layer Parallel structure forecast model for medium-term daily passenger volume (about 120 days) of HSR systems by using the date and holiday labels and Wavelet Neural Network. The predict results are important input data for supporting the line planning, scheduling and other decisions in operation and management in HSR systems.

Details

Railway Sciences, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2755-0907

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 October 2023

Abdelhadi Ifleh and Mounime El Kabbouri

The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in…

Abstract

Purpose

The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in attractive SMs. This article aims to apply a correlation feature selection model to identify important technical indicators (TIs), which are combined with multiple deep learning (DL) algorithms for forecasting SM indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves using a correlation feature selection model to select the most relevant features. These features are then used to predict the fluctuations of six markets using various DL algorithms, and the results are compared with predictions made using all features by using a range of performance measures.

Findings

The experimental results show that the combination of TIs selected through correlation and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) provides good results in the MADEX market. The combination of selected indicators and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) in the NASDAQ 100 market outperforms all other combinations of variables and models. In other markets, the combination of all variables with ANN provides the best results.

Originality/value

This article makes several significant contributions, including the use of a correlation feature selection model to select pertinent variables, comparison between multiple DL algorithms (ANN, CNN and Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM)), combining selected variables with algorithms to improve predictions, evaluation of the suggested model on six datasets (MASI, MADEX, FTSE 100, SP500, NASDAQ 100 and EGX 30) and application of various performance measures (Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) and Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE)).

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present…

1001

Abstract

Purpose

Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.

Findings

The final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.

Originality/value

Through the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.

Details

EconomiA, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 January 2022

Dinda Thalia Andariesta and Meditya Wasesa

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

4804

Abstract

Purpose

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

Design/methodology/approach

To develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Findings

Prediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.

Originality/value

First, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 June 2022

Abhishek Das and Mihir Narayan Mohanty

In time and accurate detection of cancer can save the life of the person affected. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), breast cancer occupies the most frequent…

Abstract

Purpose

In time and accurate detection of cancer can save the life of the person affected. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), breast cancer occupies the most frequent incidence among all the cancers whereas breast cancer takes fifth place in the case of mortality numbers. Out of many image processing techniques, certain works have focused on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for processing these images. However, deep learning models are to be explored well.

Design/methodology/approach

In this work, multivariate statistics-based kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) is used for essential features. KPCA is simultaneously helpful for denoising the data. These features are processed through a heterogeneous ensemble model that consists of three base models. The base models comprise recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU). The outcomes of these base learners are fed to fuzzy adaptive resonance theory mapping (ARTMAP) model for decision making as the nodes are added to the F_2ˆa layer if the winning criteria are fulfilled that makes the ARTMAP model more robust.

Findings

The proposed model is verified using breast histopathology image dataset publicly available at Kaggle. The model provides 99.36% training accuracy and 98.72% validation accuracy. The proposed model utilizes data processing in all aspects, i.e. image denoising to reduce the data redundancy, training by ensemble learning to provide higher results than that of single models. The final classification by a fuzzy ARTMAP model that controls the number of nodes depending upon the performance makes robust accurate classification.

Research limitations/implications

Research in the field of medical applications is an ongoing method. More advanced algorithms are being developed for better classification. Still, the scope is there to design the models in terms of better performance, practicability and cost efficiency in the future. Also, the ensemble models may be chosen with different combinations and characteristics. Only signal instead of images may be verified for this proposed model. Experimental analysis shows the improved performance of the proposed model. This method needs to be verified using practical models. Also, the practical implementation will be carried out for its real-time performance and cost efficiency.

Originality/value

The proposed model is utilized for denoising and to reduce the data redundancy so that the feature selection is done using KPCA. Training and classification are performed using heterogeneous ensemble model designed using RNN, LSTM and GRU as base classifiers to provide higher results than that of single models. Use of adaptive fuzzy mapping model makes the final classification accurate. The effectiveness of combining these methods to a single model is analyzed in this work.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 July 2020

Xisto L. Travassos, Sérgio L. Avila and Nathan Ida

Ground Penetrating Radar is a multidisciplinary Nondestructive Evaluation technique that requires knowledge of electromagnetic wave propagation, material properties and antenna…

5862

Abstract

Ground Penetrating Radar is a multidisciplinary Nondestructive Evaluation technique that requires knowledge of electromagnetic wave propagation, material properties and antenna theory. Under some circumstances this tool may require auxiliary algorithms to improve the interpretation of the collected data. Detection, location and definition of target’s geometrical and physical properties with a low false alarm rate are the objectives of these signal post-processing methods. Basic approaches are focused in the first two objectives while more robust and complex techniques deal with all objectives at once. This work reviews the use of Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning for data interpretation of Ground Penetrating Radar surveys. We show that these computational techniques have progressed GPR forward from locating and testing to imaging and diagnosis approaches.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

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