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Article
Publication date: 11 November 2014

Yan Wang, Shoudong Chen and Xiu Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to measure a single financial institution's contribution to systemic risk by using extremal quantile regression and analyzing the influential factors…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to measure a single financial institution's contribution to systemic risk by using extremal quantile regression and analyzing the influential factors of systemic risk.

Design/methodology/approach

Extreme value theory is applied when measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions. Extremal quantile regression, where extreme value distribution is assumed for the tail, is used to measure the extreme risk and analyze the changes in and dependencies of risk. Furthermore, influential factors of systemic risk are analyzed using panel regression.

Findings

The key findings of the paper are that value at risk and contribution to systemic risk are very different when measuring the risk of a financial institution; banks’ contributions to systemic risk are much higher; and size and leverage ratio are two significant and important factors influencing an institution's systemic risk.

Practical implications

Characterizing variables of financial institutions such as size, leverage ratio and market beta should be considered together when regulating and constraining financial institutions.

Originality/value

To take extreme risk into account, this paper measures systemic financial risk using extremal quantile regression for the first time.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 4 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 18 January 2022

James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon and Gian Luigi Mazzi

This chapter uses an application to explore the utility of Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) methods in producing density nowcasts. Our quantile regression modeling strategy is…

Abstract

This chapter uses an application to explore the utility of Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) methods in producing density nowcasts. Our quantile regression modeling strategy is designed to reflect important nowcasting features, namely the use of mixed-frequency data, the ragged-edge, and large numbers of indicators (big data). An unrestricted mixed data sampling strategy within a BQR is used to accommodate a large mixed-frequency data set when nowcasting; the authors consider various shrinkage priors to avoid parameter proliferation. In an application to euro area GDP growth, using over 100 mixed-frequency indicators, the authors find that the quantile regression approach produces accurate density nowcasts including over recessionary periods when global-local shrinkage priors are used.

Details

Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-062-7

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 December 2013

Federico Echenique and Ivana Komunjer

In this article we design an econometric test for monotone comparative statics (MCS) often found in models with multiple equilibria. Our test exploits the observable implications…

Abstract

In this article we design an econometric test for monotone comparative statics (MCS) often found in models with multiple equilibria. Our test exploits the observable implications of the MCS prediction: that the extreme (high and low) conditiona l quantiles of the dependent variable increase monotonically with the explanatory variable. The main contribution of the article is to derive a likelihood-ratio test, which to the best of our knowledge is the first econometric test of MCS proposed in the literature. The test is an asymptotic “chi-bar squared” test for order restrictions on intermediate conditional quantiles. The key features of our approach are: (1) we do not need to estimate the underlying nonparametric model relating the dependent and explanatory variables to the latent disturbances; (2) we make few assumptions on the cardinality, location, or probabilities over equilibria. In particular, one can implement our test without assuming an equilibrium selection rule.

Details

Structural Econometric Models
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-052-9

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 December 2021

T.G. Saji

The mandatory adoption/convergence of IFRS has increased the information quality of reported earnings in equity markets across the globe. The purpose of the study is to explore…

Abstract

Purpose

The mandatory adoption/convergence of IFRS has increased the information quality of reported earnings in equity markets across the globe. The purpose of the study is to explore whether the mandatory convergence of Indian Accounting Standards (Ind AS) with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) affect the financial reporting quality of listed firms in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample includes 355 non-financial publicly listed firms on National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India with 1,065 firm-year observations. The authors use models similar to Jones (1991), and DeFond and Jiambalvo (1994) to investigate value relevance in the period “1st January 2017 to 31st December 2019”. The study uses the quantile regression (QR) analysis to verify our hypothesis.

Findings

The findings suggest that IFRS convergence process adds value to accounting quality of reported earnings in Indian stock market. The authors' QR estimations produce collaborating evidence on the uneven impact of IFRS across quantiles and the financial reporting quality skewed in favour of investors of high-valued firms.

Research limitations/implications

The effects of convergence with IFRS in value relevance of financial statements could be reinforced by considering alternate accrual models and incorporating more accounting measures on an expanded sample of stocks from several global markets.

Practical implications

Presently, convergence of local accounting standards to IFRS in India is only partial. The findings may produce useful insights for regulators and standard setters to further increase the value relevance of financial reports whilst they move towards full convergence.

Originality/value

The study explores the information quality of reported earnings of Indian listed firms in post-IFRS convergence period, which is not properly investigated in the literature. Moreover, the research is unique in terms of applying QR estimations to examine the value relevance of IFRS-converged financial reporting from the emerging market perspective.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. 23 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 May 2023

Michaelia Widjaja, Gaby and Shinta Amalina Hazrati Havidz

This study aims to identify the ability of gold and cryptocurrency (Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) Price) as safe haven assets (SHA) for stocks and bonds in both…

1979

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify the ability of gold and cryptocurrency (Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) Price) as safe haven assets (SHA) for stocks and bonds in both conventional (i.e. stock indices and government bonds) and Islamic markets (i.e. Islamic stock indices and Islamic bonds (IB)).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employed the nonadditive panel quantile regression model by Powell (2016). It measured the safe haven characteristics of gold and UCRY Price for stock indices, government bonds, Islamic stocks, and IB under gold circumstances and level of cryptocurrency uncertainty, respectively. The period spanned from 11 March 2020 to 31 December 2021.

Findings

This study discovered three findings, including: (1) gold is a strong safe haven for stocks and bonds in conventional and Islamic markets under bearish conditions; (2) UCRY Price is a strong safe haven for conventional stocks and bonds but only a weak safe haven for Islamic stocks under high crypto uncertainty; and (3) gold offers a safe haven in both emerging and developed countries, while UCRY Price provides a better safe haven in developed than in emerging countries.

Practical implications

Gold always wins big for safe haven properties during unstable economy. It can also win over investors who consider shariah compliant products. Therefore, it should be included in an investor's portfolio. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are more common for developed countries. Thus, the governments and regulators of emerging countries need to provide more guidance around cryptocurrency so that the societies have better literacy. On top of that, the investors can consider crypto to mitigate risks but with limited safe haven functions.

Originality/value

The originality aspects of this study include: (1) four chosen assets from conventional and Islamic markets altogether (i.e. stock indices, government bonds, Islamic stock indices and IB); (2) indicator countries selected based on the most used and owned cryptocurrencies for the SHA study; and (3) the utilization of UCRY Price as a crypto indicator and a further examination of the SHA study toward four financial assets.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 33 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 11 November 2014

Xuejun Jin

84

Abstract

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 4 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Article
Publication date: 1 April 2003

SERGIO M. FOCARDI and FRANK J. FABOZZI

Fat‐tailed distributions have been found in many financial and economic variables ranging from forecasting returns on financial assets to modeling recovery distributions in…

Abstract

Fat‐tailed distributions have been found in many financial and economic variables ranging from forecasting returns on financial assets to modeling recovery distributions in bankruptcies. They have also been found in numerous insurance applications such as catastrophic insurance claims and in value‐at‐risk measures employed by risk managers. Financial applications include:

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Book part
Publication date: 18 September 2006

Joel A.C. Baum and Bill McKelvey

The potential advantage of extreme value theory in modeling management phenomena is the central theme of this paper. The statistics of extremes have played only a very limited…

Abstract

The potential advantage of extreme value theory in modeling management phenomena is the central theme of this paper. The statistics of extremes have played only a very limited role in management studies despite the disproportionate emphasis on unusual events in the world of managers. An overview of this theory and related statistical models is presented, and illustrative empirical examples provided.

Details

Research Methodology in Strategy and Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-339-6

Article
Publication date: 13 March 2024

Carla Ramos, Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo and Danny P. Claro

This study aims to capture how the association between a multichannel relational communication strategy (MRCS) and customer performance is contingent upon such customer…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to capture how the association between a multichannel relational communication strategy (MRCS) and customer performance is contingent upon such customer performance (low- versus high-performance customers) and to reconcile past contradictory results in this marketing-related topic. To this end, the authors propose and validate the method of quantile regression as an unconventional, yet effective, means to proceed to that reconciliation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study collected data from 4,934 customers of a private pension fund firm and accounted for both firm- and customer-initiated relational communication channels (RCCs) and for customer lifetime value (CLV). This study estimated a generalized linear model and then a quantile regression model was used to account for customer performance heterogeneity.

Findings

This study finds that specific RCCs present different levels of association with performance for low- versus high-performance customers, where outcome customer performance is the dependent variable. For example, the relation between firm-initiated communication (FIC) and performance is stronger for low-CLV customers, whereas the relation between customer-initiated communication (CIC) and performance is increasingly stronger for high-CLV customers but not for low-CLV ones. This study also finds that combining different forms of FIC can result in a negative association with customer performance, especially for low-CLV customers.

Research limitations/implications

The authors tested the conceptual model in one single firm in the specific context of financial services and with cross-sectional data, so there should be caution when extrapolating this study’s findings.

Practical implications

This study offers nuanced and precise managerial insights on recommended resource allocation along with relational communication efforts, showing how managers can benefit from adopting a differentiated-customer performance approach when designing their MRCS.

Originality/value

This study provides an overview of the state of the art of MRCS, proposes a contingency analysis of the relationship between MRCS and performance based on customer performance heterogeneity and suggests the quantile method to perform such analysis and help reconcile past contradictory findings. This study shows how the association between RCCs and CLV varies across the conditional quantiles of the distribution of customer performance. This study also addresses a recent call for a more holistic perspective on the relationships between independent and dependent variables.

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2000

Francis X. Diebold, Til Schuermann and John D. Stroughair

Extreme value theory (EVT) holds promise for advancing the assessment and management of extreme financial risks. Recent literature suggests that the application of EVT generally…

1183

Abstract

Extreme value theory (EVT) holds promise for advancing the assessment and management of extreme financial risks. Recent literature suggests that the application of EVT generally results in more precise estimates of extreme quantiles and tail probabilities of financial asset returns. This article assesses EVT from the perspective of financial risk management. The authors believe that the recent optimism regarding EVT may be appropriate but exaggerated, and that much of its potential remains latent. They support their claim by describing various pitfalls associated with the current use of EVT techniques, and illustrate how these can be avoided. In conclusion, the article defines several specific research directions that may further the practical and effective application of EVT to risk management.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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