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1 – 10 of 22Yan Wang, Shoudong Chen and Xiu Zhang
The purpose of this paper is to measure a single financial institution's contribution to systemic risk by using extremal quantile regression and analyzing the influential factors…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to measure a single financial institution's contribution to systemic risk by using extremal quantile regression and analyzing the influential factors of systemic risk.
Design/methodology/approach
Extreme value theory is applied when measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions. Extremal quantile regression, where extreme value distribution is assumed for the tail, is used to measure the extreme risk and analyze the changes in and dependencies of risk. Furthermore, influential factors of systemic risk are analyzed using panel regression.
Findings
The key findings of the paper are that value at risk and contribution to systemic risk are very different when measuring the risk of a financial institution; banks’ contributions to systemic risk are much higher; and size and leverage ratio are two significant and important factors influencing an institution's systemic risk.
Practical implications
Characterizing variables of financial institutions such as size, leverage ratio and market beta should be considered together when regulating and constraining financial institutions.
Originality/value
To take extreme risk into account, this paper measures systemic financial risk using extremal quantile regression for the first time.
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The mandatory adoption/convergence of IFRS has increased the information quality of reported earnings in equity markets across the globe. The purpose of the study is to explore…
Abstract
Purpose
The mandatory adoption/convergence of IFRS has increased the information quality of reported earnings in equity markets across the globe. The purpose of the study is to explore whether the mandatory convergence of Indian Accounting Standards (Ind AS) with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) affect the financial reporting quality of listed firms in India.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample includes 355 non-financial publicly listed firms on National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India with 1,065 firm-year observations. The authors use models similar to Jones (1991), and DeFond and Jiambalvo (1994) to investigate value relevance in the period “1st January 2017 to 31st December 2019”. The study uses the quantile regression (QR) analysis to verify our hypothesis.
Findings
The findings suggest that IFRS convergence process adds value to accounting quality of reported earnings in Indian stock market. The authors' QR estimations produce collaborating evidence on the uneven impact of IFRS across quantiles and the financial reporting quality skewed in favour of investors of high-valued firms.
Research limitations/implications
The effects of convergence with IFRS in value relevance of financial statements could be reinforced by considering alternate accrual models and incorporating more accounting measures on an expanded sample of stocks from several global markets.
Practical implications
Presently, convergence of local accounting standards to IFRS in India is only partial. The findings may produce useful insights for regulators and standard setters to further increase the value relevance of financial reports whilst they move towards full convergence.
Originality/value
The study explores the information quality of reported earnings of Indian listed firms in post-IFRS convergence period, which is not properly investigated in the literature. Moreover, the research is unique in terms of applying QR estimations to examine the value relevance of IFRS-converged financial reporting from the emerging market perspective.
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Michaelia Widjaja, Gaby and Shinta Amalina Hazrati Havidz
This study aims to identify the ability of gold and cryptocurrency (Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) Price) as safe haven assets (SHA) for stocks and bonds in both…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify the ability of gold and cryptocurrency (Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) Price) as safe haven assets (SHA) for stocks and bonds in both conventional (i.e. stock indices and government bonds) and Islamic markets (i.e. Islamic stock indices and Islamic bonds (IB)).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employed the nonadditive panel quantile regression model by Powell (2016). It measured the safe haven characteristics of gold and UCRY Price for stock indices, government bonds, Islamic stocks, and IB under gold circumstances and level of cryptocurrency uncertainty, respectively. The period spanned from 11 March 2020 to 31 December 2021.
Findings
This study discovered three findings, including: (1) gold is a strong safe haven for stocks and bonds in conventional and Islamic markets under bearish conditions; (2) UCRY Price is a strong safe haven for conventional stocks and bonds but only a weak safe haven for Islamic stocks under high crypto uncertainty; and (3) gold offers a safe haven in both emerging and developed countries, while UCRY Price provides a better safe haven in developed than in emerging countries.
Practical implications
Gold always wins big for safe haven properties during unstable economy. It can also win over investors who consider shariah compliant products. Therefore, it should be included in an investor's portfolio. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are more common for developed countries. Thus, the governments and regulators of emerging countries need to provide more guidance around cryptocurrency so that the societies have better literacy. On top of that, the investors can consider crypto to mitigate risks but with limited safe haven functions.
Originality/value
The originality aspects of this study include: (1) four chosen assets from conventional and Islamic markets altogether (i.e. stock indices, government bonds, Islamic stock indices and IB); (2) indicator countries selected based on the most used and owned cryptocurrencies for the SHA study; and (3) the utilization of UCRY Price as a crypto indicator and a further examination of the SHA study toward four financial assets.
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SERGIO M. FOCARDI and FRANK J. FABOZZI
Fat‐tailed distributions have been found in many financial and economic variables ranging from forecasting returns on financial assets to modeling recovery distributions in…
Abstract
Fat‐tailed distributions have been found in many financial and economic variables ranging from forecasting returns on financial assets to modeling recovery distributions in bankruptcies. They have also been found in numerous insurance applications such as catastrophic insurance claims and in value‐at‐risk measures employed by risk managers. Financial applications include:
Carla Ramos, Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo and Danny P. Claro
This study aims to capture how the association between a multichannel relational communication strategy (MRCS) and customer performance is contingent upon such customer…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to capture how the association between a multichannel relational communication strategy (MRCS) and customer performance is contingent upon such customer performance (low- versus high-performance customers) and to reconcile past contradictory results in this marketing-related topic. To this end, the authors propose and validate the method of quantile regression as an unconventional, yet effective, means to proceed to that reconciliation.
Design/methodology/approach
This study collected data from 4,934 customers of a private pension fund firm and accounted for both firm- and customer-initiated relational communication channels (RCCs) and for customer lifetime value (CLV). This study estimated a generalized linear model and then a quantile regression model was used to account for customer performance heterogeneity.
Findings
This study finds that specific RCCs present different levels of association with performance for low- versus high-performance customers, where outcome customer performance is the dependent variable. For example, the relation between firm-initiated communication (FIC) and performance is stronger for low-CLV customers, whereas the relation between customer-initiated communication (CIC) and performance is increasingly stronger for high-CLV customers but not for low-CLV ones. This study also finds that combining different forms of FIC can result in a negative association with customer performance, especially for low-CLV customers.
Research limitations/implications
The authors tested the conceptual model in one single firm in the specific context of financial services and with cross-sectional data, so there should be caution when extrapolating this study’s findings.
Practical implications
This study offers nuanced and precise managerial insights on recommended resource allocation along with relational communication efforts, showing how managers can benefit from adopting a differentiated-customer performance approach when designing their MRCS.
Originality/value
This study provides an overview of the state of the art of MRCS, proposes a contingency analysis of the relationship between MRCS and performance based on customer performance heterogeneity and suggests the quantile method to perform such analysis and help reconcile past contradictory findings. This study shows how the association between RCCs and CLV varies across the conditional quantiles of the distribution of customer performance. This study also addresses a recent call for a more holistic perspective on the relationships between independent and dependent variables.
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Francis X. Diebold, Til Schuermann and John D. Stroughair
Extreme value theory (EVT) holds promise for advancing the assessment and management of extreme financial risks. Recent literature suggests that the application of EVT generally…
Abstract
Extreme value theory (EVT) holds promise for advancing the assessment and management of extreme financial risks. Recent literature suggests that the application of EVT generally results in more precise estimates of extreme quantiles and tail probabilities of financial asset returns. This article assesses EVT from the perspective of financial risk management. The authors believe that the recent optimism regarding EVT may be appropriate but exaggerated, and that much of its potential remains latent. They support their claim by describing various pitfalls associated with the current use of EVT techniques, and illustrate how these can be avoided. In conclusion, the article defines several specific research directions that may further the practical and effective application of EVT to risk management.
This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover effects between Southeast Asian stock markets, bitcoin and gold in the periods before and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover effects between Southeast Asian stock markets, bitcoin and gold in the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The interdependence among different asset classes, the two leading stock markets in Southeast Asia (Singapore and Thailand), bitcoin and gold, is analyzed for diversification opportunities.
Design/methodology/approach
The vector autoregressive-Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to capture the return and volatility spillover effects between different financial assets. The data cover the period from October 2013 to May 2021. The full period is divided into two sub-sample periods, the pre-pandemic period and the during-pandemic period, to examine whether the financial turbulence caused by COVID-19 affects the interconnectedness between the assets.
Findings
The stocks in Southeast Asia, bitcoin and gold become more interdependent during the pandemic. During turbulent times, the contagion effect is inevitable regardless of region and asset class. Furthermore, bitcoin does not provide protection for investors in Southeast Asia. The pricing mechanism and technology behind bitcoin are different from common stocks, yet the results indicate the co-movement of bitcoin and the Singaporean and Thai stocks during the crisis. Finally, risk-averse investors should ensure that gold constitutes a significant proportion of their portfolio, approximately 40%–55%. This strategy provides the most effective hedge against risk.
Originality/value
The mean return and volatility spillover is analyzed between bitcoin, gold and two preeminent stock markets in Southeast Asia. Most prior studies test the spillover effect between the same asset classes such as equities in different regions or different commodities, currencies and cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the time-series data are divided into two groups based on the structural break caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of this study offer practical implications for risk management and portfolio diversification. Diversification opportunities are becoming scarce as different financial assets witness increasing integration.
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This study explores the interconnectedness and complexity of risk-varied climate initiatives such as green bonds (GBs), emissions trading systems (ETS) and socially responsible…
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores the interconnectedness and complexity of risk-varied climate initiatives such as green bonds (GBs), emissions trading systems (ETS) and socially responsible investments (SRI). The analysis covers the period from September 2011 to August 2022, using six indices: three representing climate initiatives and three indicating uncertainty.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this, the study first examines dynamic lead-lag relations and correlation patterns in the time-frequency domain to analyse the returns of the series. Additionally, it applies an innovative approach to investigate the predictability of uncertainty measurements of climate initiatives across various market conditions and frequency spillovers in the short, medium and long run.
Findings
The findings indicate changing relationships between the series, increased linkages during turbulent market periods and strong co-movements within the network. The ETS is recommended for diversification and hedging against uncertainty indices, whereas the GB may be suitable for long-term diversification.
Practical implications
This study highlights the role of climate initiatives as potential hedges and contagion amplifiers during crises, with implications for policy recommendations and the asymmetric effects on market connectedness.
Originality/value
The paper answers questions that previous studies have not and contributes to the literature regarding financial risk management and social responsibility.
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Ingo Hoffmann and Christoph J. Börner
This paper aims to evaluate the accuracy of a quantile estimate. Especially when estimating high quantiles from a few data, the quantile estimator itself is a random number with…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to evaluate the accuracy of a quantile estimate. Especially when estimating high quantiles from a few data, the quantile estimator itself is a random number with its own distribution. This distribution is first determined and then it is shown how the accuracy of the quantile estimation can be assessed in practice.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper considers the situation that the parent distribution of the data is unknown, the tail is modeled with the generalized pareto distribution and the quantile is finally estimated using the fitted tail model. Based on well-known theoretical preliminary studies, the finite sample distribution of the quantile estimator is determined and the accuracy of the estimator is quantified.
Findings
In general, the algebraic representation of the finite sample distribution of the quantile estimator was found. With the distribution, all statistical quantities can be determined. In particular, the expected value, the variance and the bias of the quantile estimator are calculated to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation process. Scaling laws could be derived and it turns out that with a fat tail and few data, the bias and the variance increase massively.
Research limitations/implications
Currently, the research is limited to the form of the tail, which is interesting for the financial sector. Future research might consider problems where the tail has a finite support or the tail is over-fat.
Practical implications
The ability to calculate error bands and the bias for the quantile estimator is equally important for financial institutions, as well as regulators and auditors.
Originality/value
Understanding the quantile estimator as a random variable and analyzing and evaluating it based on its distribution gives researchers, regulators, auditors and practitioners new opportunities to assess risk.
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