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1 – 10 of over 4000John Kwaku Amoh, Abdallah Abdul-Mumuni and Richard Amankwa Fosu
While some countries have used debt to drive economic growth, the asymmetric effect on sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has received little attention in the empirical…
Abstract
Purpose
While some countries have used debt to drive economic growth, the asymmetric effect on sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has received little attention in the empirical literature. This paper therefore examines the asymmetric effect of external debts on economic growth.
Design/methodology/approach
The panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach was employed in the study for 29 sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2021. The cross-sectional dependence test was used to determine the presence of cross-sectional dependence, while the second-generation panel unit root tests was used to examine the unit-root properties.
Findings
The empirical results show that external debt has an asymmetric effect on economic growth in both the short and long run. In the long run, a positive shock in external debts of 1% triggers an upturn in economic growth by 0.216% while a negative shock triggers 0.354% decline in economic growth. This implies that the negative shock of external debts has a much stronger impact on economic growth than the positive shock. In the short run, a positive shock in external debts by 1% triggers a decline in economic growth by 0.641%, while a negative shock of 1% triggers a fall in economic growth of 0.170%.
Originality/value
The paper used the NARDL model to examine the asymmetric impact of external debt on the economic growth of SSA countries, which has not been extensively studied. It is recommended that governments in the selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa should drive economic growth by promoting domestic revenue mobilization since external debts impede economic growth.
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Gildas Dohba Dinga, Dobdinga Cletus Fonchamnyo and Nges Shamaine Afumbom
This study examines the effect of external debt and domestic capital formation on economic development in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies.
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the effect of external debt and domestic capital formation on economic development in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the Dynamic Common Correlation Effects (DCCE) technique and the Driscoll and Kraay fixed-effect technique, this paper conducts a multidimensional assessment of external debt and domestic investment on economic development across a panel of 35 SSA countries from 1995 to 2018. The data utilized are sourced from the World Development Indicators (2021) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) database (2021).
Findings
The results reveal that domestic investment has a positive impact on economic development in SSA countries, consistent across all three dimensions of the human development index (income, education and life expectancy). However, external debt exhibits an adverse effect on economic development, consistently yielding negative outcomes for life expectancy, education and income.
Practical implications
Based on these findings, the authors recommend that SSA economies implement appropriate policies, such as reducing bureaucratic requirements and addressing corruption, to enhance domestic capital investment. Additionally, efforts should be directed toward channeling contracted debt into productive sectors like road construction and electricity provision.
Originality/value
This study is among the first to assess the impact of domestic investment and external debt on the three dimensions of human development outlined by the UNDP. Furthermore, it employs a robust econometric method that considers cross-sectional dependence (CD).
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This paper aims to revisit the relationship between sales growth and profitability by exploring the direct and indirect effects of cost stickiness in the growth process. Cost…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to revisit the relationship between sales growth and profitability by exploring the direct and indirect effects of cost stickiness in the growth process. Cost stickiness refers to asymmetric variations of costs associated with increases and decreases in sales. Cost stickiness is analyzed as a strategic liability that negatively affects profitability because it contributes to organizational rigidity that causes opportunity costs.
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical design is based on a large sample of 65,599 French firms drawn from the Amadeus database and it covers the period 2010 to 2019. The authors take advantage of the presentation of expenses made by nature in Amadeus to calculate cost stickiness in a more direct way than what is commonly done in the literature. The authors use various regression models to test the hypotheses.
Findings
For firms that experience rapid growth in sales, cost stickiness has a positive moderating effect on the relation between sales growth and profitability because of a higher asset turnover efficiency. However, for firms that experience slow growth, no growth or a decrease in sales, cost stickiness plays a negative moderating effect on the relation between sales and profitability.
Originality/value
This work contributes to the discussion about the conditions under which high growth is associated with greater profitability and conceptualizes cost stickiness as a strategic liability. The empirical context, privately held firms, has been overlooked by previous research.
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Yahuza Abdul Rahman, Anthony Kofi Osei-Fosu and Daniel Sakyi
This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.
Findings
Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.
Practical implications
The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.
Originality/value
The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.
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Thembeka Sibahle Ngcobo, Lindokuhle Talent Zungu and Nomusa Yolanda Nkomo
This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with those of newly democratized European countries (Germany and Ukraine) during the period 1990–2022.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology involves three stages: identifying the appropriate transition variable, assessing the linearity between public debt and economic growth and selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helps identify the nature of relationships between public debt and economic growth. The wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier test is used to evaluate the model’s appropriateness. All these tests would be executed using the Lagrange Multiplier type of test.
Findings
The results signify the policy switch, as the authors find that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by two transitions that symbolize that the current stage of the relationship is beyond the U-shape; however, an S-shape. The results show that for newly democratized African countries, the threshold during the first waves was 50% of GDP, represented by a U-shape, which then transits to an inverted U-shape with a threshold of 65% of GDP. Then, for the European case, it was 60% of GDP, which is now 72% of GDP.
Originality/value
The findings suggest that an escalating level of public debt has a negative impact on economic growth; therefore, it is important to implement fiscal discipline, prioritize government spending and reduce reliance on debt financing. This can be achieved by focusing on revenue generation, implementing effective taxation policies, reducing wasteful expenditures and promoting investment and productivity-enhancing measures.
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María María Ibañez Martín, Mara Leticia Rojas and Carlos Dabús
Most empirical papers on threshold effects between debt and growth focus on developed countries or a mix of developing and developed economies, often using public debt. Evidence…
Abstract
Purpose
Most empirical papers on threshold effects between debt and growth focus on developed countries or a mix of developing and developed economies, often using public debt. Evidence for developing economies is inconclusive, as is the analysis of other threshold effects such as those probably caused by the level of relative development or the repayment capacity. The objective of this study was to examine threshold effects for developing economies, including external and total debt, and identify them in the debt-growth relation considering three determinants: debt itself, initial real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and debt to exports ratio.
Design/methodology/approach
We used a panel threshold regression model (PTRM) and a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) for a sample of 47 developing countries from 1970 to 2019.
Findings
We found (1) no evidence of threshold effects applying total debt as a threshold variable; (2) one critical value for external debt of 42.32% (using PTRM) and 67.11% (using DPTM), above which this factor is detrimental to growth; (3) two turning points for initial GDP as a threshold variable, where total and external debt positively affects growth at a very low initial GDP, it becomes nonsignificant between critical values, and it negatively influences growth above the second threshold; (4) one critical value for external debt to exports using PTRM and DPTM, below which external debt positively affects growth and negatively above it.
Originality/value
The outcome suggests that only poorer economies can leverage credits. The level of the threshold for the debt to exports ratio is higher than that found in previous literature, implying that the external restriction could be less relevant in recent periods. However, the threshold for the external debt-to-GDP ratio is lower compared to previous evidence.
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The study examines the impacts of debt financing on infrastructure development, investment, creation of new business entities, subsidies to private sector and GDP growth.
Abstract
Purpose
The study examines the impacts of debt financing on infrastructure development, investment, creation of new business entities, subsidies to private sector and GDP growth.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is based on five simultaneous equations which have been estimated through panel least square.
Findings
The most important conclusion of this study is the significant role of sovereign bonds in determination of subsidies to private sector. The role of domestic credit is important in South Asian context because of its significant role in creation of new businesses.
Research limitations/implications
This study supports the enhancement in credit financing to private sector for creation of new business activities in the economy.
Practical implications
The improvement in liquidity position by enhancing domestic credit facilities may ensure the sustainability and continuity of business activities. Such activities may improve GDP growth in future.
Social implications
The most important aspect of the study is to identify the role of debt financing in subsidies and creation of new businesses which are important elements of social economics.
Originality/value
Usually the impacts of sovereign bonds and external debts on infrastructure development and GDP growth are examined. But, to relate these debts to creation of business entities and subsidies is a new dimension.
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Lord Mensah and Felix Kwasi Arku
This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the error correction model (ECM) to establish the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable (external debt) and the independent variables (debt service, exchange rate, gross domestic product, government expenditure, import and trade openness), using a time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019.
Findings
The results indicate that debt service, GDP, government expenditure and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while import and exchange rates have a negative relationship with external debt in the long run. In the short run, debt service, import, exchange rate and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while GDP has a negative relationship with external debt.
Practical implications
The study found that variables such as government expenditure, debt service and import contribute significantly to the nation’s external debt stock. These findings suggest that policymakers should focus on prioritising and cutting down expenditure in their quest to curtail the debt menace facing the nation. Since existing debt service has the tendency of influencing debt stock, it is recommended that government should reduce borrowing in order avoid debt trap. Home-grown policies to reduce imports must also be encouraged. As these drivers of external debt are tackled head-on, Ghana can be rightly positioned to record lower levels of public debt and subsequently reap the benefits of economic growth.
Originality/value
The study adds to the public debt literature, specifically addressing the idiosyncratic determinants of external debt within the Ghanaian context.
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Biswajit Patra and Narayan Sethi
This paper analyzes the direct effect of financial development and the mediating impact of financial development through foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign aid and trade on…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper analyzes the direct effect of financial development and the mediating impact of financial development through foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign aid and trade on economic growth for all Asian countries.
Design/methodology/approach
A fixed-effect model with Driscoll–Kraay panel corrected estimators was employed to find the direct and mediating impact of financial developments on growth for all 47 Asian economies from 1980 to 2020. The bootstrapped panel-quantile regression (BPQR) model is used to check how this effect varies for different income groups of countries.
Findings
The results demonstrated that financial development positively impacts countries' economic growth. The interaction effect of financial development with FDI, foreign aid and foreign trade negatively impacts economic growth. The BPQR results showed that FDI and foreign aid help in the growth of lower quantile economies; however, the impact is negative for middle- and upper-income countries. Trade impacts growth positively for all the quantiles of economies.
Research limitations/implications
The results suggest that the Asian economies must continue to provide thrust on the financial development of their own countries to achieve better growth. It also implied that the dependence on external finance is good for low-income countries and not advisable for middle- and upper-income countries.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is the first to provide empirical evidence on analyzing both the direct and interaction effect of financial development on economic growth by considering all the Asian economies.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0587
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Ahmet Keser, Ibrahim Cutcu, Sunil Tiwari, Mehmet Vahit Eren, S.S. Askar and Mohamed Abouhawwash
The main objective of this research is to investigate if there is a long-term relationship between “terrorism” and sustainable “economic growth” in Big Ten Countries.
Abstract
Purpose
The main objective of this research is to investigate if there is a long-term relationship between “terrorism” and sustainable “economic growth” in Big Ten Countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The data was tested via Panel ARDL Analysis. The growth rate (GR) is the dependent variable, and the “Global Terror Index (GTI)” is the independent variable as the terror indicator. The ratio of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the ratio of External Balance (EB) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are included in the model as the control variables due to their effect on the growth rate. A Panel ARDL analysis is conducted to examine the existence of long-term co-integration between terror and the economy. The planning of the study, the formation of its theoretical and conceptual framework, and the literature research were carried out in 2 months, and the collection of data, the creation of the methodology and the analysis of the analyzes were carried out in 2 months, the interpretation of the findings and the development of policy recommendations were carried out within a period of 1 month. The entire study was completed in a total of 5 months.
Findings
Results showed that “Terror” has a negative impact on “Growth Rate” in the long term while “External Balance” and “Foreign Direct Investment” positively affect the Growth Rate. The coefficients for the short term are not statistically significant.
Research limitations/implications
The sample is only limited to Big Ten including China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Poland and South Africa. The period for annual data collection covers the years between 2002 and 2019 and due to the unavailability of data.
Practical implications
Considering the risks and the mutual negative effect that turns into a vicious circle between terrorism and the economy, it is necessary to eliminate the problems that cause terrorism in the mentioned countries, on the one hand, and to develop policies that will improve economic performance on the other.
Social implications
Trustful law enforcement bodies have to be established and supported by all technological means to prevent terror. The conditions causing terror have to be investigated carefully and the problems causing terror or internal conflict have to be solved. International cooperation against terrorism has to be strengthened and partnerships, information, experience sharing have to be supported at the maximum levels.
Originality/value
It is certain that terror might have a negative influence on the performance of economies. But the limited number of studies within this vein and the small size of their sample groups mostly including single-country case studies require conducting a study by using a larger sample group of countries. Big Ten here represents at least half of the population of the world and different regions of the Globe.
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