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The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of institutional quality on the export-led growth (ELG) with global evidence of a panel of 119 countries.

The research framework looks at the role of exports in promoting growth via. good institutional quality. The methods of testing are panel data approach of causality, and fixed and random effects models.

Empirical results show that good Institutional quality mediates the ELG relationship in general, and middle income group in specific. The legal institutional quality has significant positive impact, whereas political and economic institutional quality have significant negative impact on ELG for all sampled countries.

The Kuncic’s (2014) institutional quality data are annually available between 1990 and 2010. Therefore, time series analysis for individual country is bias with 21 observations. And, this study ignores other potential variables such as capital, labor, real exchange rate, and so on, may possibly contribute to omitted-variables bias.

Policymakers may well utilize institutional quality reforms either in terms of improving existing institutional quality or enhancing “second-best” institutions as a policy instrument to reap success from export-oriented growth strategies.

Existing studies on ELG have ignored institutional quality as a relevant variable. It looks at the three institutional quality indicators, namely political, economic, and legal in ELG framework.

This study examines the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1980 to 2017. The study also examines whether the causality between these two macroeconomic variables depends on the countries' stage of development as proxied by their per capita income.

The study uses a panel cointegration test and panel Granger-causality model to examine the link between exports and growth. The study also incorporates external debt as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between exports and economic growth, thereby creating a dynamic multivariate panel Granger-causality model.

Although the study found the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, the study failed to find any export-led growth response in both low-income and middle-income countries. Instead, the study found evidence of a bidirectional causality and a neutrality response in middle-income and low-income countries, respectively. The study, therefore, concludes that the benefits of an export-led growth hypothesis may have been oversold, and that the strategy may not be desirable to some low-income developing countries.

These findings have important policy implications as they indicate that the causality between exports and economic growth in SSA countries varies with the countries' stage of development. Consistent with the contemporary literature, the study cautions low-income SSA countries against over-relying on an export-led growth strategy to achieve a sustained growth path as no causality between exports and economic growth has been found to exist in those countries. Instead, such countries should consider pursuing new growth strategies by building the domestic demand side of their economies alongside their export promotion strategies in order to expand the real sector of their economies. For middle-income countries, the study recommends that both export promotion strategies and pro-growth policies should be intensified as economic growth and exports have been found to reinforce each other in those countries.

Unlike the previous studies, the current study disaggregated the full sample of SSA countries into two subsets – one comprising of low-income countries and the other consisting of middle-income countries. In addition, the study uses a multivariate Granger-causality model in order to address the emission-of-variable bias. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind in recent years to examine in detail the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in SSA countries using an ECM-based multivariate panel Granger-causality model.

本研究旨在探討在1980年至2017年期間撒哈拉以南非洲國家的出口、與其經濟增長之間的因果關係，亦探討這兩個宏觀經濟變量之間的因果關係、會否取決於有關國家所處以人均收入來衡量的發展階段。

本研究雖然發現出口與經濟增長存有一個長期性關係，唯未能於低收入國家或中等收入國家、找到任何出口帶動的增長反應。研究反而找到證據，證實中等收入國家為一雙向性因果關係反應，而低收入國家則為一中立性反應。因此，研究的結論是：出口必能帶動經濟增長這假設被過度吹噓，而且，對部份低收入發展中國家而言，實施以出口帶動經濟增長的策略或許是沒有用的。

本研究的結果在政策方面有其重要意義。這是因為研究結果顯示、於撒哈拉以南非洲國家、出口與經濟增長之間的因果關係，會因有關國家所處的發展階段而有所變更。與當代文獻一樣，本研究提醒低收入的撒哈拉以南非洲國家，不要過度依賴以出口帶動增長的策略來謀求踏上持續增長之路，這是因為在這些國家，出口與經濟增長之間的因果關係仍未確立。他們反而應考慮推行新增長經濟策略，方法是在實施推動出口的策略的同時，也要建立其經濟的國內需求面，以擴大其經濟實業部門。就中等收入國家而言，本研究建議他們應增強推動出口的策略及強化促進增長的政策，這是因為在這些國家裏，經濟增長及出口已被證實會互為增強。

有別於過去的研究，本研究把撒哈拉以南非洲國家的整體樣本分解為兩個子集：一個包括低收入國家，另一個則包括中等收入國家。而且、研究使用了多變量面板格蘭傑因果關係模型、以處理遺漏變數偏差的問題。據我們了解，這大概是近年首個同類研究、以基於歐洲共同市場多變量面板格蘭傑因果關係模型、來詳細探討於撒哈拉以南非洲國家、出口與經濟增長之間的因果關係。

The purpose of this paper is to examine how the linkage effect provides a better understanding of export‐led growth hypothesis in developing countries.

The literature review on the externalities of export‐led growth implied a hypothesis that the higher the linkage effect of export manufacture or industry is, the greater the externality effect and the faster the export growth of it will be in developing countries. The export growth pattern of the Hong Kong electronics industry and some selected data from China's export manufactures have been used to verify the hypothesis.

The findings have strongly supported the research hypothesis at both the product and industry level.

In the ELG model, it is the externality and the linkage effect of export that lead to the output growth of an economy. The findings have illustrated that the ELG model cannot simply be based on the effect of the amount of export or the export growth rate, rather the externality and the linkage effect of export should also be incorporated into the model.

The study aims to examine the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Bangladesh. The direction of causality between export and output largely determines the success of export-oriented trade policies. A unidirectional causality running from export to output growth is required according to the narrow definition, while bidirectional causality is allowed for the broader definition. The study offers the causality inference, both from narrow and broader senses.

The study uses the bootstrap version of Toda and Yamamoto-modified causality tests, a recent development in time series econometrics, robust against the regularity conditions such as stationarity, properties of integration and cointegration and constancy of parameters. It uses monthly secondary data for the period of 1990-2014.

Test results suggest a unidirectional positive causal relationship from exports to output growth, meaning that the policies and strategies supporting exports are promoting output growth and thereby approve the ELG hypothesis for Bangladesh from the narrow sense. However, the absence of bidirectional causality between export and output growth, necessary to support the ELG hypothesis from the broader perspective, discards the conjecture that output growth is reinvigorated through the probable second-round effects of ELG produced from output growth to exports.

Lower investments in infrastructure, technology and education are reasons for the absence of ELG from the broader sense. Therefore, directing returns generated from exports for the development of technology, infrastructure and human capital, with regular and continuous revision of trade-liberalization policies so as to make its exports more competitive in the world market, will help Bangladesh trigger the second-round effect of ELG produced from output growth to exports.

Beyond the conventional approaches, this is the first contemporary time series econometrics causality analysis between export and output growth of Bangladesh, both from narrow and broader senses.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the export‐led growth, growth‐led export, import‐led growth, growth‐led import and foreign deficit sustainability hypothesis in the case of China, using annual time series data from 1978‐2009.

For estimation evidence this study employs the Phillips Perron unit root tests to examine the level of integration and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to determine the long run relationship, and the direction of long run and short run causal relationship is examined by using modified Granger causality test.

The results confirm the bidirectional long run relationship between the economic growth and exports, economic growth and imports, and exports and imports. These findings guided the authors to conclude that the exports‐led growth, growth‐led exports, imports‐led growth and growth‐led imports hypothesis is valid, and foreign deficit is sustainable for China. The long run elasticities are as follows: the elasticity of economic growth with respect to exports is 0.591, and elasticity of exports with respect to economic growth is 1.635. The elasticity of economic growth with respect to imports is 0.621, and elasticity of imports with respect to economic growth is 1.392. Further more the elasticity of exports with respect to imports is 1.322, and imports elasticity with respect to exports is 0.975.

This study utilizes the relative new cointegration method of ARDL approach. The empirical findings of this study are vital for policy makers of China in the formulation of trade policies.

This study aims to examine the relationship between tourism development and economic growth while considering exports simultaneously. Governments in many countries have been developing and deploying strategies to attract tourism receipts as a means for economic growth. However, assessing the potential impact of tourism on economic growth among large economies is still in its infancy.

Using a vector error correction model framework, this study examines the relationship among exports, gross domestic product (GDP) and tourism receipts (including international tourism receipts and domestic tourism receipts in two separate models) with macro data that covers two recent decades (1994-2013) in China.

The empirical findings confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship in each of these two tri-variate models. The empirical findings reveal that (1) both tourism-led-growth and export-led-growth hypotheses are supported, (2) the growth rate of tourism receipts exhibit a higher relevance with GDP growth than export growth and (3) the growth rate of international tourism shows a higher relevance with GDP growth than domestic tourism growth.

Using macroeconomic data collected by the Chinese government, the current study employs an advanced econometric methodology to explore the potential benefits of tourism on economic growth in China.

This paper aims to analyse the relationship between exports and non-export gross domestic product (GDP) in the context of Indian economy during 1988-2012. It considers export both at aggregate and disaggregated levels to examine whether export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is sensitive to types of goods India exports.

The OLS-based autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been employed to analyse the potential long-run equilibrium relationship. Further, the error correction model within the ARDL framework is applied to examine the short-run and long-run causal relationship between non-export GDP, export and other variables. The study is based on secondary data.

The study indicates that at aggregate level, exports do not have any significant impact on output of non-export sector, and therefore, it is maintained that ELG hypothesis is not valid at aggregate level in India; when the authors disaggregate exports into merchandise and services exports, the latter has been found to have positive spillover effects on non-export sector of the economy. However, the association between merchandise export and non-export GDP is found to be statistically insignificant. When the authors further disaggregated merchandise exports, the authors observed that primary-product export has a negative association with non-export GDP, but export of manufacturing products found to have a significant positive impact on non-export GDP. Finally, export of petroleum product shows a negative long-run association with non-export GDP, but the association is statistically insignificant.

It is not the case that India can simply increase its exports per se and be sure of witnessing economic growth, but instead it is the composition and the concentration of these exports that matters.

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the function of foreign trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and regional gross domestic product (GDP) in China, explore how these two variables affect regional GDP together and provide evidence to export‐led growth (ELG) and FDI‐led growth.

Artificial neural network (ANN) is introduced in the model. This nonlinear and adaptive computation obtains a three‐dimension function that is different from linear models.

New evidence was found for ELG and FDI‐led growth with data of 28 regions in China in the period of 1994‐2005. The simulation reveals that with foreign trade and FDI scale varying, marginal GDP in different Chinese regions is positive. Because of the nonlinear system, a wave pattern of marginal GDP was found and an optimal scale of foreign trade and FDI for Chinese regions. Results in the simulation also indicate the possibility of economic deconcentration in some Chinese regions.

New evidence is provided for ELG and FDI‐led growth. Different from conventional methods, ANN model as a nonlinear system is introduced in the study in which optimal scale of foreign trade and FDI for Chinese regions is obtained.

As the world economies have become more integrated and with the global economy subsequently growing, there is increasing concern regarding how such trends will affect the developing and developed nations’ trade, trade in services, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and climate change. In fact, the relationship between globalization and the environment has become quite contentious in policy circles. In part in response to these controversies, a burgeoning amount of academic attention has emerged that examines the globalization linkage between trade and economic growth as an after effect (positive and negative). Although there have been advances in the thinking about these relationships, significant challenges still persist. In light of the above, this chapter talks about the evolution of globalization, prevailing benefits and also caters to the views of some famous economists like Stiglitz, Simon Kuznets. The crucial aspects include the review of globalization on the basis of certain parameters like Trade (as % of GDP), Trade in services (as % of GDP), per capita CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP that have impacted the trends of both developed and developing nations. It arrives at the position that many current and proposed national and multilateral environmental policies are in a possible conflict with current and proposed trade and investment rules. When climate policy and global trade rules are combined, the nature of their linkage is often a function of both domestic and international politics. This also implies that, despite the worldwide awareness of climate change, the address of climate change in trade will become increasingly significant for reducing carbon footprints.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze possible causal relationships between exports, inward foreign investment and economic growth in Portugal and identify their direction.

The paper uses a three‐stage procedure based on unit root, cointegration and causality tests applied to annual data from 1977 to 2004.

The paper reveals that exports and FDI foster growth in the long‐run while in the short‐run there is a bi‐directional causal relationship between FDI and growth and a univariate causal relationship running from FDI to exports. FDI is viewed as a major determinant of economic growth, both directly and indirectly, via exports for both long and short‐run cases.

The results provide important corollaries in terms of policy implications and their relevance is far from being parochial. Some lessons in terms of domestic policies can be drawn by many countries that are now becoming EU members with economic structures and problems similar to those presented by the Portuguese economy in the 1980s.

This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the Portuguese economy during the 1977‐2004 period, over which many efforts were developed in order to increase the external competition of the economy, in particular in the context of community structural frameworks. In order to reinforce the inflows of FDI, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers to FDI and the reforms of the labour market which started in the early 2000s.