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This study aims to estimate Pakistan’s export potential in new and existing export products, as well as their potential destination markets.

This study uses a nonparametric approach based on demand, supply and easiness factors for estimating export potential at disaggregated product and destination levels.

A significant number of new export products (extensive margin) and existing products (intensive margin) are identified that have export potential. The estimated unrealized export potential at extensive margins is $2bn and at intensive margins is $5bn. The range of new products included value-added products, semifinished products and intermediate products. Surprisingly, there is high potential to diversify in China and export existing products more intensively in the EU. Moreover, the potential at extensive margins is regional diverse compared to intensive margins.

The methodology used in this paper only provides export potential for short-to-medium term period because the global demand conditions are varying. Also, the mineral and resource-based products cannot be included in the analysis because their exports are heavily dependent on the availability of natural resources.

The findings have important policy implications in terms of providing guidelines for government policies related to industrial development, international trade and export promotion at the product and destination level. Overall, the study reveals that traditional sectors lack room for product diversification. As the existing export incentives favor major industries. To foster diversification, existing incentives must be redesigned to cover new products or sectors. Moreover, China has the greatest potential for product diversification, while Europe has the greatest potential to export current products more intensively. Further research is needed to simulate trade policy scenarios and estimate demand, supply and ease factors in export potential.

This study provides a unique perspective on export potential assessment at disaggregated product and destination levels, reinforcing the importance of redesigning trade policies and export incentives separately for export diversification.

The Russian export flow is highly concentrated on few trading partners that results in its high vulnerability to external shock. Furthermore, the Russian–Ukraine conflict and corresponding western sanctions has enhanced the need of export markets diversification for Russia. Therefore, this study is a baseline attempt to explore determinants of export flow along with identifying potential export markets. This objective is realized by employing an augmented version of gravity model on export flow of Russian Federation to 108 trading partners from 2000 to 2020.

The augmented gravity model of export flow is estimated by using employing contemporary panel econometrics such as panel generalized ordinary least square estimation technique with cross-sectional weight along with heteroskedasticity consistent white coefficients is employed to explore impact of selected macroeconomic and policy variables. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed by using panel random effect along with the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors with pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effect generalized least square (GLS) estimator techniques. The estimated result of panel GLS technique is subjected to in-sampled forecasting technique to explore potential export markets.

The findings show that an increase in the income of trading partners and enhancement of domestic production capacity has significant positive impact on Russian export flow, whereas geographic distance has a significant negative impact. Income of trading partners emerged as major determinant of export flow with high explanatory power. Among augmented variables, the real exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact of lower intensity, whereas binary variables for the common border, common history and preferential/free trade agreement show a significant positive impact. The finding of export potential reveals a high concentration of export with existence of large potential for exports across the globe. For instance, many developing countries in Asia, Africa and America reveal high potential for Russian exports.

The findings urge Russian Federation to diversify its export markets by targeting potential export markets. Many emerging developing countries are witnessing a high potential for Russian exports, therefore attempts should be taken to diversify toward them. The expansion of existing transportation facilities along with development of cargo trade can be important policy instrument to realize objective of export diversification.

This study is the first comprehensive analysis that employs augmented gravity model to explore potential export markets for Russian Federation by using panel data of 108 global trading partners from 2000 to 2020. This finding of this study provides a framework of export diversification toward potential markets across the globe.

The aim of the proposed classification approach of potential market alternatives (CAPMA) is to provide exporting countries with a framework for identifying potential market opportunities for their products or services.

In today's global market conditions, with competition increasing daily, companies, businesses and states must seek new markets at the national and international level. Target market selection is a strategic process that directly affects the success of an organization and can lead to important results in the short and long term. The process requires systematic research and digitization of data to analyse target markets.

The study tested the proposed approach by analysing Turkey's potential markets for hazelnut exports and identifying new target markets. A significant part of Turkey's hazelnut exporting is confined to the European geography of Turkey, the leading country in hazelnut production and export. Twenty potential markets were evaluated on the basis of 11 criteria, and feasible alternatives were categorized into four classes. The study revealed that the USA, India, the United Kingdom and Japan were in the category of markets with the greatest potential for increasing exports (Dimension 1).

This study has developed a novel approach that allows the comparison of the current market situation with potential market outcomes and creates an accurate classification of target markets.

The present study provides evidence on export advantages of horticultural commodities based on competitiveness, trade balance and seasonality dimensions.

The study delineated horticultural commodities in terms of comparative advantage, examined temporal shifts in export advantages (mapping) and estimated seasonality. Product mapping was carried out using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI). Seasonal advantages were examined through a graphical approach along with the objective tests, namely, modified QS-test (QS), Friedman-test (FT) and using a seasonal dummy.

Cucumbers/gherkins, onions, preserved vegetables, fresh grapes, shelled cashew nuts, guavas, mangoes, and spices emerged as the most favorable horticultural products. India has a strong seasonal advantage in dried onions, cucumber/gherkins, shelled cashew nut, dried capsicum, coriander, cumin, and turmeric. The untapped potential in horticulture can be addressed by handling the trade barriers effectively, particularly the sanitary and phytosanitary issues, affecting the exports. Proper policies must be enacted to facilitate the investment in advanced agricultural technologies and logistics to ensure the desired quality and cost effectiveness.

Commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.

There is no holistic and recent study illustrating the horticulture export advantages covering a large number of commodities in the Indian context. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders for drawing useful policy implications.

This study explores the integration of smallholder farmers into the export market in Vietnam, an emerging economy. By introducing a prospective framework, we seek to provide insight into factors that influence this integration process.

This study examines the expected growth and entry of Vietnamese smallholder farmers into high-value export markets. We collected information from 200 independent farmers as well as from five local extension workers, who provided information on 50 farmers.

The study reveals that the adoption of new business models is more influential than the variables traditionally included in models of export-market integration in predicting expected growth and entry into high-value export markets. In addition, the results highlight divergent views between farmers and extension workers regarding the role of collectors, with farmers perceiving collectors as potential partners, while extension workers see them as impediments to growth.

The prospective model presented in this study highlights the importance of policy interventions aimed at promoting new business models and addressing infrastructure and capital constraints for the sustainable transformation of agricultural sectors in emerging markets.

This is one of the first articles to apply a prospective approach to export-market integration and demonstrate its efficacy through an empirical study. The suggested prospective approach could facilitate the design of policies aimed at export-market integration within the context of dynamic, emerging markets.

The article examines whether cross-border trade in digitally delivered services (DDSs) has an influence on European female entrepreneurship. Two research questions were asked to assess the potential impact of trade in DDSs both on the import and export sides.

To answer the research questions, the panel data for 26 European countries for the years 2008–2019 were implemented to estimate panel regression models. Based on the results of variance inflation factors (VIFs) and Breusch–Pagan and Hausman tests, the estimations of panel models were conducted for female entrepreneurship as a dependent variable and measures of import and export of digitally delivered services as independent variables.

The imports of digitally delivered services positively affect female entrepreneurship in European countries, whilst the impact of the export of digitally delivered services is statistically insignificant. The possibility of being a customer of digitally delivered services through its import may become a gender equaliser in entrepreneurship. However, as differences in digital competencies and growth intentions prevent women from acting as the providers of digitally delivered services, the export of DDSs can sustain the existing gender gap in entrepreneurship.

The research findings provide the added value in the field of female entrepreneurship, referring to institutional theory and human capital theory. The import of DDSs seems to support female entrepreneurs through the reduction of cultural distance, whilst the human capital theory gains the perspective of limited digital competencies needed to export DDSs as a pathway to the internationalisation of women's ventures. The practical implications for trade policy, digitalisation and gender equality should aim not only at supporting women's export propensity, but should also focus on the development of their digital competencies.

Instead of commonly used perspective of international entrepreneurship, the authors implemented the lens of cross-border trade to check whether there is a linkage between internationalisation, measured by imports and exports of DDSs and female entrepreneurship. Trade economists neglect the gender dimension in their studies of pro-growth internationalisation. In contrast, research on female entrepreneurship does not consider the potential of cross-border trade in DDSs as a gender equaliser.

This paper aims to analyze relative contribution of intensive margin (IM) and extensive margin (EM) to growth in India's agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. It also analyses the determinants of IM and EMs through a standard gravity model.

The study uses export data from United Nations Comtrade, which is accessed through World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) software. Data for the period 2001 to 2020 were compiled for analysis using the Harmonized System (HS) of commodity classification system at the six-digit level. This study decomposed the contribution of IM and EM in the growth of Indian agricultural trade by using Hummels and Klenow's approach. After performing the export decomposition analysis, the authors analyze the factors influencing IM and EM by using the Tobit regression model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method of estimation.

The EM grew at 1.24% per annum, while the intensive margin (IM) increased by 0.23%. The contribution of growth at the EM increased from 58.8% in 2001 to 70.2% in 2020. Export growth along the IM was relatively high for animal products and agricultural raw materials, while growth at the EM was an important contributor to the export growth of horticultural and processed agricultural products. There was a positive and significant effect of the free trade agreement (FTA) on export margins.

More disaggregated commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.

There is a scarcity of holistic and recent studies illustrating the role of IM and EMs in agricultural trade growth, covering a large number of commodities and geographies associated with Indian agricultural trade. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders in facilitating informed policy decisions.

Although the significance of technological progress in economic development is well-established in theory and policy, it has remained challenging to agree upon shared priorities for strategies and policies. This paper aims to develop a model of how policymakers can develop effective and easy to communicate strategies for science, technology and economic development.

By integrating insights from economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature, a replicable research framework for analysing the opportunities and challenges of technological revolutions for small catching-up countries is developed. The authors highlight key lessons from piloting this framework for informing the strategy and policies for bioeconomy in Estonia towards 2030–2050.

The integration of economic complexity research with traditional foresight methods establishes a solid analytical basis for a data-driven analysis of the opportunities for industrial upgrading. The increase in the importance of regional alliances in the global economy calls for further advancement of the analytical toolbox. Integration of complexity, global value chains and export potential assessment approaches offers valuable direction for further research, as it enables discussion of the opportunities of moving towards more knowledge-intensive economic activities along with the opportunities for winning international market share.

The research merges insights from the economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature in a novel way and illustrates the applicability and priority-setting in a real-life setting.

Stable high growth in the service sector has made India free from the stigma of slow and steady ‘Hindu rate of growth’ of about 3.5% per annum during the first three decades of independence. Service-led growth has placed India among the top performing giant economies in the world. India is now a 3 trillion USD (United States Dollar) economy in terms of Nominal GDP (IMF, 2020). Under this milieu, the chapter aims to examine whether the growth in the service sector in India is inclusive or not. The observations of the study have shown that the service sector has been growing at fast pace compared to the other two sectors, which makes the system into jobless status. The sectoral contribution of service sector to the GDP is increasing after the new economic reform of 1990, but the employment contribution is going down. So the country is now in the grip of ‘jobless’ growth, and the grip is strengthening because of some structural issues such as changes in consumers’ demand with rising per capita income. Further deepening of finance capital in the savings sphere of service sector has made the wide disconnect between the real economic activity and growth of finance capital. Revival of high linkage sectors with higher potential for employment growth, such as agriculture and manufacturing, can be game changer towards the goal of inclusiveness.

Upon completion of this case study, students will be able to identify the main conceptual foundations of strategy in international business, determine the strategy of entry into a country through the analysis of dual pressures and propose the mode of entry into a country by analyzing the sources of competitive advantage in a firm’s value chain.

Café Galavis stood out as one of the most outstanding family businesses in industrial development, with a century-long trajectory in the production and sale of roasted and ground coffee in Cucuta, Colombia. However, in 2015, the diplomatic, humanitarian and economic crisis between the governments of Colombia and Venezuela led to the indefinite closure of the Colombian–Venezuelan border. As a result, the illegal coffee trade increased, and competition from traditional brands significantly affected sales, leading to financial difficulties and an urgent need for change in senior management. In addition, the demise of the manager who had been leading the company until 2018 exacerbated the business situation. Juan Francisco Yáñez, the new manager, joined the management of an emblematic company. From his first years of management, he implemented different strategies related to organizational policies, production, innovation and export of products to achieve stability. For the year 2023, the challenges for the new CEO were to lead a brand with more than a century of tradition and business roots and to enter new markets, owing to the high dependence on the Venezuelan market. Which countries should they enter in the internationalization process? Furthermore, what type of strategy and entry mode should Café Galavis implement to penetrate new markets? These were some of the challenges faced by the CEO; therefore, he required objective information to make decisions in consensus with his collaborators.

This case study is suitable for students of postgraduate academic programs in knowledge areas of international management, international business or MBA.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 5: International business.