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This study aims to examine the illicit capital movement through trade misinvoicing in Burundi, at disaggregated levels by major trading partners and by major export and import commodities.

Trade misinvoicing is estimated by comparing the trade values declared by Burundi with those declared by trading partners in a bilateral international transaction, after adjusting for the cost of freight and insurance. Disaggregated trade misinvoicing by major trading partners is computed using the Direction of Trade Statistics database of the International Monetary Fund over the period 1970–2019. Disaggregated trade misinvoicing by major trading commodities is computed using the UN-COMTRADE database over the period 1993–2019.

Exports of Burundi to most of its major trading partners are found to be underinvoiced. The top destinations for export underinvoicing are United Arab Emirates, Belgium and Germany. However, exports to UK and Switzerland are found to be overinvoiced. The major export commodities considered, coffee and gold, are found to be affected by trade misinvoicing to a great extent. On the import side, the estimation results indicate that imports of Burundi from its major trading partners are in general overinvoiced. High import overinvoicing is observed in the trade with Saudi Arabia, China and Japan. At commodity level, for the top 6 commodities considered, imports were to a great extent found to be overinvoiced. Cases of illicit capital outflows and inflows through trade misinvoicing are highlighted.

Some policy implications are drawn from this study. First, in collaboration with its development partners, the Government of Burundi should put in place measures to reduce the trade misinvoicing phenomenon, which undermines poverty reduction efforts. The study has shown which trade partners are involved and which commodities are mostly affected. Policy efforts could then be focused in that regard. Investigations at the company and transaction levels can be made to identify the mechanisms of trade misinvoicing. Second, more effort is needed in ensuring systematic and transparent reporting of international trade transactions. To fight trade misinvoicing, transparency in international trade is key, through coordinated enforcement of reporting rules.

Previous studies analyzed the problem of trade misinvoicing at an aggregated level. However, this leaves out essential information on trading partners involved in the phenomenon as well as trading commodities affected. This study investigates trade misinvoicing at disaggregated levels, at product level and by trading partner.

This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model between the government, the core enterprises of film copyright export and imports and uses the system dynamics model to simulate and find the optimal selection results of single and mixed government incentives under dynamic changes, aiming to promote the development of foreign trade of film copyright and innovation and development of the film industry so as to improve the overall social benefits of the film industry and provide policy enlightenment for enhancing the import power of foreign core enterprises to introduce domestic film copyrights.

In this paper, a tripartite evolutionary game model of the government, the core enterprises of film copyright export and imports is constructed, the evolution process of cooperation strategy is derived, the impact of innovation income coefficient, mixed incentive policy and single incentive policy on the evolution results is analyzed, and the system dynamic model is used to simulate to find the optimal selection results of single and mixed government incentives under dynamic changes, so as to provide reference for the government’s dynamic incentive decision-making.

The results show that export-oriented core firms are more sensitive to mixed incentives, while import-oriented core firms respond more quickly to single incentives. The large innovation income coefficient has a negative impact on the willingness of import-oriented core enterprises to cooperate. The study proposes measures to increase the willingness of core companies to participate.

Due to the fact that numerical simulation is based on simulation, there may be a certain gap between it and the actual situation. Therefore, it is necessary to further use actual data to conduct empirical analysis on the theoretical model.

This article mainly focuses on analyzing the impact of strategy choices and related parameters of various entities on the incentive mechanism and studying the foreign trade cooperation strategies of film copyright export enterprises under policy support from a theoretical model perspective. Furthermore, research has proven that in order to effectively enhance the willingness of foreign import core enterprises to participate in the foreign trade of domestic film copyrights, the government needs to coordinate the use of single incentive policies and mixed incentive policies. This study provides a major contribution for policymaker to develop film copyright import and export trade.

Based on the research conclusions, this paper puts forward management countermeasures to further improve the development of the film copyright import and export trade. The first is to enrich government incentive methods and stimulate the vitality of film copyright and foreign trade market entities. The second is to guide the core enterprises of film copyright export to increase investment in innovation and stimulate the endogenous driving force of industrial development. Finally, lengthen the foreign trade industry chain of film copyright and increase the income of film derivatives.

Firstly, this paper applies the research methods of evolutionary game and system dynamics simulation to the field of foreign trade research on film copyright and expands the research perspectives and methods of the film industry. Secondly, by analyzing the “cost-benefit incentive” relationship of the evolutionary game of government export-oriented core enterprises and importing core enterprises, an evolutionary game model is constructed, the quantitative point of tripartite interest decision-making is solved and the research object of the evolutionary game method is expanded. Finally, the system dynamics model is used to simulate and find the optimal selection results of single and mixed government incentives under dynamic changes, so as to provide reference for the government’s dynamic incentive decision-making.

Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade.

The authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries.

The results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries.

One of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies.

Removing trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of the oil price shocks. However, the asymmetric oil-macroeconomy relationship across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries puts oil-exporting countries in a more vulnerable position as they cannot rely on trade with oil-importing countries to reduce the negative impacts of lower oil prices on their growth. Therefore, it is crucial for oil-exporting countries to reassess their oil-dependent development plans and invest their oil revenues in non-oil sectors to diversity their economies and prepare for a future with reduced dependence on oil.

The recent technological advances, structural changes, and increasing energy efficiency suggest that major oil-importing countries will become less dependent on oil in near future. As a result, oil-exporting countries will also need to undergo structural changes in order to sustain their income level. These significant changes will have important social implications, particularly in the labor market, during the transition, for which preparation will be necessary.

While the literature on the total impact of oil price shocks on either oil-exporting or oil-importing countries is rich, studies on their spillover impacts are limited. Recent research has shown that trade and migration can affect the impact of oil price shock on the economy in federated countries such as Canada. However, the trade effect on oil price shocks in the international level, where countries are subject to different regulations/restrictions and institutional variations, remains scarce. By considering the trade relationship between different groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, the authors aim to contribute to the literature of the global impacts of oil price shocks on the world economy.

Drawing on the resource dependence theory (RDT), this paper investigates ownership composition, export intensity, and industry class as moderating factors to investigate the role of imported raw materials in performance of inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) in Ethiopia.

The hypotheses were tested using secondary data obtained from the 2016 Central Statistical Agency (CSA) on Large- and Medium-Scale Manufacturing and Electricity Industries Survey. The data included basic quantitative information on the country's manufacturing industry. The data items for the 2016 manufacturing and electricity industries surveyed are the numbers of proprietors or establishments involved in various sectors. The report did not record small firms that employed fewer than 10 people and did not use power-driven machinery. Two-Stage least squares (2SLS) regression analysis was performed to test the proposed hypotheses.

The results of this study indicate that three moderators (ownership composition, export intensity, and industry classification) interact with the hypothetical relationships between imported raw materials and performance. These findings enrich the knowledge of IFDI firms' operations in Ethiopia and in other least-developed countries (LDCs). The findings could provide information for IFDI firms that are looking to invest in LDCs.

Like all social science research, this study has some limitations. First, the research was conducted with the data found in the Report on Large- and Medium-Scale Manufacturing and Electricity Industries Survey In 2016. This was the first year of the second five-year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), a national development plan for the 2016–2020 period. Continual research on IFDI in Ethiopia in the following years will be needed to get a full picture of the effects of the determinants on IFDIs.

To IFDI investors, the result of this thesis demonstrates several alternatives to overcoming hurdles in manufacturing operation. The results find that J.V. firms make better use of imported raw materials than W.O. subsidiaries in order to achieve better performance. Concerning the choice between focusing on export or domestic markets, the study suggests that domestic market—oriented companies require less imported raw materials to achieve better performance. Concerning the comparative advantage on different industries, this study found the performance of firms in Industry 12 depended on imported raw materials. These findings highlight the challenges and opportunities for potential foreign investors. Ownership composition, market factors, and industry factors should be well considered in making investment decisions.

This is one of few studies on IFDI in Ethiopia, the most populous LDC. Ownership composition, export intensity, and industry class are used as moderating variables to investigate the difference between imported raw materials and the level of expatriate deployment to IFDI performance. For IFDI investors, the results of this study demonstrate several alternatives to overcoming hurdles in manufacturing operation.

The authors empirically aim to study the implications of uncertainty generated by oil price volatility on some key macroeconomic variables, including production, exchange rates and interest rates, of both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Using a block exogeneity structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model that mutes the effects of domestic variables on global factors and that is suitable for small open economies because of significant differences in the responses of domestic production in oil-importing countries will most likely decrease through reducing planning horizons, postponing investment projects and relocating resources more inefficiently.

The authors integrated into the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model the block exogeneity feature since all the countries in this study are small open economies that cannot influence the global economic variables. The block exogeneity feature imposes the restriction that the domestic variables have neither a contemporaneous nor a lagged impact on the global variables. This model has eight variables: oil price volatility, world demand and federal funds rate as the global variables; and domestic production, monetary aggregate, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate as domestic variables. The authors assemble the data for 12 developing countries for which the necessary data for the analysis are available: six oil exporting countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Colombia) and six oil importing countries (Turkey, India, Philippines, Poland, South Africa and Indonesia).

The results point out significant differences in the responses of macroeconomic variables to oil price volatility shocks between oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Furthermore, the local currencies of these countries depreciate due to concerns about possible current account worsening. In response to the shock, domestic interest rates are reduced so as to alleviate the negative exposure of the shock on domestic economic activity. While domestic production in some oil-exporting countries (i.e. Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran) increases during oil price uncertainty; in some other countries (i.e. Mexico, Kazakhstan and Colombia), domestic production decreases.

Several components of the study contribute to its novelty. One of them is the period under consideration. The time frame that encompasses the most significant geopolitical and financial events, such as the Middle East Spring and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. The research was conducted using the block-exogeneity SVAR model, which includes 12 oil exporting and importing developing countries. With this model, the global dynamics, particularly the energy market, that these nations may influence and are influenced by, i.e. global and nonglobal factors can be constrained. This makes it easy to determine the various effects prices have on macroeconomic variables.

1. Oil prices and volatility still matter to the global economy

2. Monetary and fiscal policy interventions in response to oil price volatility create uncertainty and impede investment activity

3. The response of macroeconomic variables to volatility shocks in oil prices varies across oil importers and exporters

4. Interest rates help stabilize production in oil-importing economies that have well-functioning financial markets

Oil prices and volatility still matter to the global economy

Monetary and fiscal policy interventions in response to oil price volatility create uncertainty and impede investment activity

The response of macroeconomic variables to volatility shocks in oil prices varies across oil importers and exporters

Interest rates help stabilize production in oil-importing economies that have well-functioning financial markets

A better understanding of the determinants of demand through accurate estimates of the elasticity of import demand can help policymakers and exporters improve their market access and competitiveness. This study analyzed the EU's demand for imported potato from major suppliers between 1994 and 2018, with the aim to evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato.

This study adopted an import-differentiated framework to investigate demand relationships among the major potato suppliers to the EU's. To evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato on the EU market, expenditure and price demand elasticities for various suppliers were calculated and compared.

The empirical results indicated that as income allocation of fresh potatoes increases, the investigated EU markets import more potatoes from other suppliers compared to imports from Egypt. The results show that EU importers may switch to potato imports from other suppliers as the import price of Egyptian potatoes increases, which enter the EU markets before domestically produced potatoes are harvested.

Due to data unavailability, the present study relied on yearly data on quantities and prices of EU potato imports. A higher frequency of observations should allow for considering seasonal effects, and thereby providing a more transparent picture of market dynamics and demand behavior of EU countries with respect to potato import from various sources of origin.

The study used a system-wide and source differentiated approach to analyze import demand. In particular, the empirical approach allowed for comparing different demand models (AIDS, Rotterdam, NBR and CBS) to filter out the superior and most suitable model for that data because the suitability and performance of a demand model depends rather on data than on universal criteria.

This study aimed to measure the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the value of imports and the food trade balance in Saudi Arabia.

Estimating the suggested model using econometric analysis for the years 1990–2021.

The amount of deficit increased in the food trade balance from 11.58 billion riyals in 1990 to 72.98 billion riyals in 2021. As for the increase in the index of food production by 10%, it leads to a decrease in the value of food imports for Saudi Arabia by 1.88%. Also, the value of the deficit in Saudi Arabia's food trade balance decreases by 5.24% as a result of a 10% rise in food exports to the country.

In light of the increase in the food price index to 145.8, the value of food imports and the deficit in the food trade balance exceed their counterparts in the current situation for the year 2021, at a rate of 37.1% and 44.5% for each respectively. In view of achieving huge financial surpluses as a result of the rise in oil prices, the Saudi Arabia is able to bear the high import bill and the amount of food trade balance deficit. Finally, the Russian–Ukrainian war leads to an increase in the cost of obtaining food commodities and their unavailability in the markets and thus affects the food security environment. Therefore, this study recommends the necessity of conducting more studies on the impact of the war on the food security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

This article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these countries.

The Mundell–Fleming model (MMF) is the analytical framework adopted in this paper with import demand and export supply functions estimation borrowed to Thirlwall (1979). This study covers four countries in West Africa from 1990 to 2021. The estimation procedure used is an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration.

The findings reveal that there is a strong marginal propensity to import in the WAEMU countries. The hypothesis of a non-significant price effect on imports in the short-term is confirmed for several countries while only Togo satisfies the MLRC in the short and long run.

This study presents several originalities: (1) it evaluates MLRC with a clear analytical framework; (2) unlike other studies, this article quantifies the MLRC from a theoretical, econometric and empirical point of view; (3) this article presents the results country by country in order to reveal heterogeneity between countries; (4) this study adds to the Marshall–Lerner condition for the derivation of Robinson by considering a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an early assessment of India’s South-South cooperation for trade and technology (SSTT) with East Africa, focusing on Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It aims to analyse the role of SSTT in providing support to targeted sectors.

The paper examines SSTT, focusing on India and East Africa over a specific period (2000–2016) of its emergence, and extends the public sponsorship literature in international business (IB) to better understand the relationship between SSTT and value addition – applying to a particular case study of SSTT interventions in spices.

The paper highlights SSTT as a pathway to support value addition in global value chains (GVCs). Trade between India and East African countries has grown, with three developments over the period of analysis in particular: shifting trade patterns, growing share of intermediate goods trade and differences in GVC insertion. However, East African exports are largely of lower value. Capacity building to support processing capability and thriving markets can encourage greater value addition. Preliminary findings suggest early gains at the margins, as SSTT interventions have been focusing on capacity boosting with buffering and bridging mechanisms for increased volume of trade. Moving up the value chain however requires that specific value-enhancing activities continue to be targeted, building on regional capacities. Our high-level case study for spices suggests that activities are starting to have a positive effect; however, more focus is needed to specifically target value creation before export and in particular higher levels of processing.

While findings are preliminary, policy implications emerge to guide SSTT interventions. There is capacity for building higher value-added supply chains as is evident among East African countries that trade with each other – future SSTT programmes could tap into this and help build capacity in these higher-value value chains. Future SSTT programmes can take a comprehensive approach by aiming at interventions at key points of the value chain, and especially at points that facilitate higher value addition than initial processing. An example is that Ethiopia and Rwanda are likely to benefit from an expanded spice industry, but the next phase should be towards building processing for value-addition components of the value chain, such as through trade policies, incentivising exporters to add value to items before export. From a development perspective, more analysis needs to be done on the value chain itself – for instance, trade facilitation measures to help processers engage in value chains and to access investments for increasing value add activities. (iv), Future research should examine more closely the development impacts of SSTT, namely, the connection between increased trade, local job creation and sustained innovation, as it is these tangible benefits that will help countries in the Global South realise the benefits of increased trade.

The paper underlines how the SSTT approach can contribute to the critical IB and GVCs literature using a theoretical grounded approach from public sponsorship theory, and with a unique lens of development cooperation between countries in the global south and its emerging impact on development outcomes in these countries.

This paper aims to analyse the wine market in relation to international competitiveness and international market structure.

To describe the international market structure, this paper uses Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and Net Export Index to measure export competitiveness revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA). Finally, survival function analyses were developed using the Kaplan–Meier product-limit estimator to characterise the stability and duration of the competitiveness in the international wine market of each country and after they were grouped into Old and New World wine-exporting countries, and Wilcoxon and the Log-rank tests were used to compare the survivor functions.

The findings have revealed that the import market structure has remained unconcentrated, whereas the export market structure is moderately concentrated. Concerning trade characteristics, France, Italy, Spain, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Portugal, Argentina, South Africa and Georgia are exporters. Austria is a trader (re-exporter), and the USA, Germany, the UK and the Netherlands are importers with strong domestic consumption. Regarding the RSCA, the New and Old World wine-exporting countries have high scores, specifically France, Italy, Spain, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Portugal, Argentina, South Africa and Georgia. However, the advantages have weakened for most of the countries analysed. Only a few Old World wine-exporting counties (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Georgia) have demonstrated stable comparative advantages over time. However, when grouped into Old World and New World, their survivor functions present little statistical differentiation during the period.

The originality of the paper is that it applies the industrial organisation and comparative advantage approaches to the wine international market, highlighting the top global players. The paper also makes valuable contributions to the wine literature by analysing the duration and stability of comparative advantage in the worldwide wine trade at a country level and comparing them grouped into Old and New World wine-exporting countries.