Search results

Demand forecasting has long been an imperative tenet in production planning especially in a make-to-order environment where a typical manufacturer has to balance the issues of holding excessive safety stocks and experiencing possible stockout. Many studies provide pragmatic paradigms to generate demand forecasts (mainly based on smoothing forecasting models.) At the same time, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been emerging as alternatives. In this chapter, we propose a two-stage forecasting approach, which combines the strengths of a neural network with a more conventional exponential smoothing model. In the first stage of this approach, a smoothing model estimates the series of demand forecasts. In the second stage, general regression neural network (GRNN) is applied to learn and then correct the errors of estimates. Our empirical study evaluates the use of different static and dynamic smoothing models and calibrates their synergies with GRNN. Various statistical tests are performed to compare the performances of the two-stage models (with error correction by neural network) and those of the original single-stage models (without error-correction by neural network). Comparisons with the single-stage GRNN are also included. Statistical results show that neural network correction leads to improvements to the forecasts made by all examined smoothing models and can outperform the single-stage GRNN in most cases. Relative performances at different levels of demand lumpiness are also examined.

The work of Scott, Bruce and Cooper on small firm growth and development is reviewed. It is shown that by adapting exponential smoothing forecasting procedures it is possible to monitor the commercial health of a small firm. This is achieved by ‘tracking’ key indicators and producing an exception message when a signal exceeds certain predetermined control limits. The procedure is equally effective for either a step or ramp change in the underlying input data. This suggested approach requires little sophistication in either data or technique and has a practical application to small firm management, while adding to our understanding of the process of growth of small businesses.

Forecasting is a vital part of hospitality operations because it allows businesses to make imperative decisions, such as pricing, promotions, distribution, scheduling, and arranging facilities, based on the predicted demand and supply. This chapter covers three main concepts related to forecasting: it provides an understanding of hospitality demand and supply, it introduces several forecasting methods for practical application, and it explains yield management as a function of forecasting. In the first section, characteristics of hospitality demand and supply are described and several techniques for managing demand and supply are addressed. In the second section, several forecasting methods for practical application are explored. In the third section, yield management is covered. Additionally, examples of yield management applications from airlines, hotels, and restaurants are presented.

This research examines the use of a number of time series model structures of a moderate allocation mutual fund, PRWCX. PRWCX was rated as the top fund in its category during the past five years. The fund invests at least 50% of its total assets that the fund manager believes that have above average potential for capital growth. The remaining assets are generally invested in convertible securities, corporate and government debt bank loans, and foreign securities. Forecasting the total NAV of such a moderate allocation mutual fund, composed of an extremely large number of investments, requires a method that produces accurate results. These models are exponentially smoothing (single, double, and Winter’s Method), trend models (linear, quadratic, and exponential) are Box-Jenkins models.

House price fluctuations send vital signals to many parts of the economy, and long-term predictions of house prices are of great interest to governments and property developers. Although predictive models based on economic fundamentals are widely used, the common requirement for such studies is that underlying data are stationary. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of alternative filtering methods for forecasting house prices.

We specifically focus on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment and multiplicative decomposition using median house prices for Sydney from Q3 1994 to Q1 2017. The model performance is evaluated using out-of-sample forecasting techniques and a robustness check against secondary data sources.

Multiplicative decomposition outperforms exponential smoothing at forecasting accuracy. The superior decomposition model suggests that seasonal and cyclical components provide important additional information for predicting house prices. The forecasts for 2017–2028 suggest that prices will slowly increase, going past 2016 levels by 2020 in the apartment market and by 2022/2023 in the detached housing market.

We demonstrate that filtering models are simple (univariate models that only require historical house prices), easy to implement (with no condition of stationarity) and widely used in financial trading, sports betting and other fields where producing accurate forecasts is more important than explaining the drivers of change. The paper puts forward a case for the inclusion of filtering models within the forecasting toolkit as a useful reference point for comparing forecasts from alternative models.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper undertakes the first systematic comparison of two filtering models for the Sydney housing market.

In contrast to recent forecasting developments, “Old School” forecasting techniques, such as exponential smoothing and the Box–Jenkins methodology, do not attempt to explicitly model or estimate breaks in a time series. Adherents of the “New School” methodology argue that once breaks are well estimated, it is possible to control for regime shifts when forecasting. We compare the forecasts of monthly unemployment rates in 10 OECD countries using various Old School and New School methods. Although each method seems to have drawbacks and no one method dominates the others, the Old School methods often outperform the New School methods for forecasting the unemployment rates.

The purpose of this study is to present a hybrid approach to model and predict long-term energy peak load using Bayesian and Holt–Winters (HW) exponential smoothing techniques.

Bayesian inference is administered by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. Machine learning tools are used to calibrate the values of the HW model parameters. Hybridization is conducted to reduce modeling uncertainty. The technique is applied to real load data. Monthly peak load forecasts are calculated as weighted averages of HW and MCMC estimates. Mean absolute percentage error and the coefficient of determination (R²) indices are used to evaluate forecasts.

The developed hybrid methodology offers advantages over both individual combined techniques and reveals more accurate and impressive results with R² above 0.97. The new technique can be used to assist energy networks in planning and implementing production projects that can ensure access to reliable and modern energy services to meet the sustainable development goal in this sector.

This is original research.

The paper aims to describe and apply a commercially oriented method of forecast performance measurement (cost of forecast error – CFE) and to compare the results with commonly adopted statistical measures of forecast accuracy in an enterprise resource planning (ERP) environment.

The study adopts a quantitative methodology to evaluate the nine forecasting models (two moving average and seven exponential smoothing) of SAP^®'s ERP system. Event management adjustment and fitted smoothing parameters are also assessed. SAP^® is the largest European software enterprise and the third largest in the world, with headquarters in Walldorf, Germany.

The findings of the study support the adoption of CFE as a more relevant commercial decision‐making measure than commonly applied statistical forecast measures.

The findings of the study provide forecast model selection guidance to SAP^®'s 12+ million worldwide users. However, the CFE metric can be adopted in any commercial forecasting situation.

This study is the first published cost assessment of SAP^®'s forecasting models.

When forecasting intermittent demand the method derived by Croston (1972) is often cited. Previous research favorably compared Croston's forecasting method for demand with simple exponential smoothing assuming a nonzero demand occurs as a Bernoulli process with a constant probability. In practice, however, the assumption of a constant probability for the occurrence of nonzero demand is often violated. This research investigates Croston's method under violation of the assumption of a constant probability of nonzero demand. In a simulation study, forecasts derived using single exponential smoothing (SES) are compared to forecasts using a modification of Croston's method utilizing double exponential smoothing to forecast the time between nonzero demands assuming a normal distribution for demand size with different standard deviation levels. This methodology may be applicable to forecasting intermittent demand at the beginning or end of a product's life cycle.

The purpose of this article is to provide a critique of SAP's enterprise resource planning (ERP) (release ECC 6.0) forecasting functionality and offer guidance to SAP practitioners on overcoming some identified limitations.

The SAP ERP forecasting functionality is reviewed against prior seminal empirical business forecasting research.

The SAP ERP system contains robust forecasting methods (exponential smoothing), but could be substantially improved by incorporating simultaneous forecast comparisons, prediction intervals, seasonal plots and/or autocorrelation charts, linear regressions lines for trend analysis, and event management based on structured judgmental forecasting or intervention analysis.

The findings provide guidance to SAP forecasting practitioners for improving forecast accuracy via important forecasting steps outside of the system.

The paper contributes to the need for studies of widely adopted ERP systems to critique vendor claims and validate functionality through prior empirical research, while offering insights and guidance to SAP's 12 million+ worldwide enterprise system practitioners.