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This study aims to investigate the existence of bubbles and their contagion effect in crude oil and stock markets of oil-exporting countries Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from 2016 to 2021.

The authors use Generalized Sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) and Backward Sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (BSADF) to significantly identify multiple bubbles stock and oil markets with precise dates. Furthermore, the authors check the contagion effect of bubbles between crude oil and GCC stock markets based on the time-varying Granger causality test.

First, the authors find empirical evidence of downwards bubbles in crude oil prices and in all GCC stock indexes (except the Saudi stock index) during the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Second, the authors do not detect empirical evidence of bubble transmission between crude oil markets and GCC stock markets (except with the Dubai Financial Market index).

The findings of this study would illuminate policymakers not to limit the factors of systematic financial crises in oil-exporting countries to crude oil and to consider factors such as monetary policy and economic diversification measures. This study has also crucial implications for investors. In fact, investors should not ignore the responses of the stock markets to oil price shocks that are heterogeneous across countries when looking for investment opportunities in the GCC region.

The study justifies the changing nature of the bubble contagion effect through the novel implementation of the time-varying Granger causality test to detect whether bubble contagion exists between oil and GCC stock markets and if that does, in which direction.

This paper aims to explore virtual simulations, merging artificial intelligence with real-world simulations, supporting Canadian armed forces (CAF) junior military leaders (JMLs) leadership development. Our research questions are: (1) How do virtual simulations support CAF junior military leadership development within a globalized and complex environment in the 21st century? (2) Could virtual simulations support a leadership culture change through efficacious “soft skills” training? In this paper, we explore the efficacy of virtual simulations for enhancing or developing leadership in JMLs in the CAF through a four-day pilot project with twenty JMLs (n = 20).

To assess the efficacy of virtual simulations for leadership development, we designed and studied a four-day leadership workshop for JMLs in the CAF using several virtual artificial intelligence leadership role-play simulations developed by McGraw Hill in their smart book textbook (Manning & Curtis, 2022) and several non-virtual in-class simulations for comparison. We selected four twenty to thirty-minute virtual role-play simulations that synergized with the in-person morning leadership workshop. We facilitated the three-hour leadership workshops and virtual/in-class simulations over four consecutive days. We emulated the ELESS model (De Freitas & Routledge, 2013) to assess soft and leadership skills.

The participants (JMLs) reported beneficial learning utility associated with the virtual simulations. Participants also expressed that further utility might be leveraged through virtual simulations incorporating greater complexity with multiple potential outcomes. They also suggested that leadership simulations designed around military situations would prove highly beneficial, something that was outside of the scope of this small pilot project.

Since this phase of our research is a pilot project, we secured a small amount of funding to test our hypothesis that simulations enhance leadership development for JMLs. These funding limitations resulted in several constraints in the research, such as the availability of virtual simulations articulating leadership from a military perspective. However, we believed the assigned organizational leadership simulations in the McGraw Hill Smart Book ecosystem would approximate generic leadership situations enough to test the hypothesis with the JMLs. As a pilot project, our sample size was relatively small (n = 20 JMLs) since participation was voluntary amidst a busy spring season for the JMLs. Since this is a pilot project, we suggest that twenty JMLs are an adequate sampling to test the hypothesis that simulations enhance JML leadership development. We will expand the sample size in the next phase of our research as we work with the CAF to expand the pool of participants to at least forty JML participants (n = 40). We also plan to secure further funding to collaborate with subject matter experts to design virtual simulations based on Canadian military leadership scenarios.

The CAF host robust simulations capabilities for combat training, but have not exploited the potential training and analytical capacity of virtual leadership simulations for leadership development within the CAF. We believe that virtual simulations provide an opportunity for the CAF to effect desired culture change through leadership development that leverages the substantial pedagogical benefits of simulations.

The CAF encountered several detrimental leadership scandals that eroded the reputational capital of the CAF. In the current geo-political climate of an expanding North American Treaty Organization (NATO) and threats from several international actors, the CAF seeks to expand its capabilities by adding and enhancing its human capital. However, the CAF currently experiences a significant gap in its human capital aspirations. There is a unanimous consensus that the endemic traditional culture of the CAF, as expressed in the recent explosive leadership scandals, is a deterrent to recruitment and thus weakens the CAF’s capability. The CAF targets leadership development with new leadership paradigms as pivotal to culture change. The CAF suggests that by enhancing leadership development in the CAF the new cadre of leadership will change the culture of the CAF and thereby enhance the reputational capital of the CAF. It is believed that this rejuvenated culture will lead to greater recruitment and retention, leading to a strengthened military. A strengthened military is important to provide effective support and protection for the Canadian people in these volatile and uncertain times. This expanded capacity will enable the CAF to address external military threats more effectively and also the increasing operations other than war (OOTW), such as the military support of long-term care facilities during COVID-19 or the military’s support in fighting record wildfires and the military’s support in climate change related disasters such as flooding.

The satisfaction measures indicated by the participants are typical evaluative measures of leadership development (Noe, 2023). These satisfaction ratings do not, however, indicate whether training has produced a change in behaviour (Brown, 2022). The implications of these outcomes for leadership education are that role-player simulations are useful leadership education and development tools because they provide a theatre of practice in which mistakes are not detrimental and serve as learning moments (Moore, 2012; Piro and O’Callaghan, 2021; Riotto, 2021). Further, the importance of role-player simulations that closely approximate the sector where leadership is experienced and practiced is perceived to enhance the experience. While the CAF invest in combat related simulations, but leadership development simulations are not as evident in the training and development array. This study seeks to assess their potential value as a leadership development tool within the wider context of character development as a leadership competency.

One of the low-cost minerals that can be used as reinforcing filler in polymer industry is pumice powder. Pumice is a highly porous volcanic glass formed during explosive eruptions. This pumice has received significant interest because of its large surface area with various polar groups and can be processed easily.

This study is carried out to investigate the effect of partial replacement of silica (as traditional filler) by naturally occurring pumice powder to improve the thermal and mechanical properties of nitrile butadiene rubber cured with electron beam radiation (doses from 25 to 150 kGy).

The results indicated that the addition of pumice powder increase the tensile strength at lower doses up to 75 kGy (especially at concentration of 5 phr). Besides, an improvement in the thermal stability was attained with the addition of pumice powder.

Pumice powder is volcanic-based alumina and silica which is mainly composed of SiO₂. It has porous structure which is formed by dissolved gases precipitated during the cooling as the lava hurtles through air. Due to its porous structure, it has low density and high thermal insulation. It also has high temperature and chemical resistance, for these reasons it became preferable material to be used as filler in the plastic and rubber industry.

The purpose of this paper is to advance our understanding of international crisis mediation by introducing and examining the nested insider-partial mediator (NIPM) concept, a nuanced perspective on IPM behavior. This study challenges the traditional view of effective mediators as external, unbiased entities by delving into the behavior and contribution of mediators who are deeply embedded in the conflict environment, such as South Korea’s unique position in navigating the US–DPRK crisis in 2017–2018. By analyzing South Korea’s dual role as mediator and negotiator and its employment of both nondirective and directive mediation strategies, the paper demonstrates the potential effectiveness of NIPMs in managing complex biases and contributing to de-escalation in intense crisis scenarios.

This paper uses a focused single-case study approach to analyze South Korea’s role as an NIPM. Using a process-tracing methodology, it examines how contextual factors such as relationships, interests and inherent biases influenced South Korea’s mediation strategies in this complex geopolitical scenario. Empirical evidence was retrieved from public sources, including official statements and press interviews, providing an empirical foundation for understanding NIPM behavior. This approach facilitates a detailed study of South Korea’s unique mediation role within the intricate dynamics of the Korean Peninsula conflict.

The study’s findings illustrate the pivotal role NIPMs can play in complex international conflicts, underlining the significant potential of NIPMs in crisis prevention. The findings highlight South Korea’s adept navigation through intricate geopolitical dynamics, leveraging its unique insider position and established relationships with both the USA and North Korea. This behavior was instrumental in mitigating a potentially explosive situation, steering the crisis toward negotiation and de-escalation. The research underscores the effectiveness of the NIPM framework in understanding the nuanced behavior of mediators who are deeply integrated into multi-level conflicts, influenced by their connections, interests and inherent biases.

This research not only broadens the theoretical framework of insider-partial mediation by introducing the concept of NIPM, but also has practical implications for policymakers and practitioners in leveraging regional mediation strategies for international crisis mitigation. The study underscores the importance of mediators’ deep-rooted connections, biases and vested interests in influencing their mediation tactics, thus offering a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted nature of international mediation in complex geopolitical conflicts.

This study aims to evaluate the suspicious transaction reporting (STR) as a financial intelligence tool to identify the potential strengths and limitations of STR and to come up with the criteria, which will make this tool an effective one in early detection of terrorist financing activities.

Considering the research aim, this research uses the funnelling method for identifying effectiveness criteria. Funnelling is a method of literature review that helps find pertinent literature by refining the search through filtering the available research (Ridley, 2008). Using this method, the researcher first applied the criteria of actionable intelligence to filter the financial intelligence tools to select the most promising and important tool (suspicious transaction reporting) for early detection of terrorist financing activities. The funnelling method was also applied to derive the effectiveness criteria from the operational features, and corresponding limitations, of the suspicious transaction reporting system. The funnelling method was also used to identify those operational features and limitations of suspicious transaction reporting that have the most direct relevance to the early detection problem of suspicious transaction reporting.

There are some operational features of STR that give rise to certain limitations that undermine its effectiveness in terms of early detection of terrorist financing activities. The limitations of STR necessitate a search for criteria that will make STR effective in early detection of terrorist financing activities. Based on the operational features and their corresponding limitations, effectiveness criteria for STR have been derived in this study. It is shown how these effectiveness criteria can remove the limitations of STR.

The list of operational features and the corresponding limitations based on which the effectiveness criteria have been derived may not be exhaustive. There may have other operational features, and corresponding limitations that also make STR largely ineffective in the early detection of terrorist financing activities, and for which more effectiveness criteria should also be derived.

The limitations and the effectiveness criteria will pave the way for redesigning STR in such a way that will make it highly useful for detecting financing activities relating to imminent terrorist attacks.

The society will experience fewer terrorist attacks that will make the society peaceful, happy and vibrant.

In this study, the effectiveness criteria of STR for early detection of terrorist financing activities have been derived in an innovative way by deducing them from the operational features of STR and the corresponding limitations.

Rosewood, as the most internationally traded endangered species, is subject to a series of restrictive trade policies globally. China has historically been the largest importer of rosewood in the world. The fluctuation of China’s rosewood import prices will have a profound impact on the global rosewood trade pattern. This study, therefore, assessed the impact of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices to explore the fluctuation rule of rosewood trade prices under restrictive policies.

The study built a partial equilibrium framework about the formation mechanism of rosewood import price bubbles under supply constraints. On this basis, with China’s daily import prices of major rosewood species, the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) and backward supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (BSADF) tests were applied to explore the effect of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices.

The empirical analysis revealed that there were multiple price bubbles for five of the seven rosewood species. The largest bubbles were always created before and after the deployment of supply constraints. The empirical results for the counterfactual examples implied that price bubbles would not have occurred if restrictive rosewood trade policies had not been implemented. The above findings indicated that these measures tended to trigger significant price bubbles in China’s rosewood imports.

The effect of restrictive rosewood trade policies on rosewood trade prices had not yet been explored in previous research studies. This study empirically analyzed the effect of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices using econometric models.

This study aims to predict stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach (current index level relative to historical maximum) during periods of global and local events, namely the subprime crisis of 2008, the political and social instability of 2011 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the period 2004–2020, a log-periodic power law model (LPPL) has been employed which describes the price dynamics preceding the beginning dates of the crisis. In order to adjust the LPPL model, the Global Search algorithm was developed using the “fmincon” function.

By minimizing the sum of square errors between the observed logarithmic indices and the LPPL predicted values, the authors find that the estimated parameters satisfy all the constraints imposed in the literature. Moreover, the adjustment line of the LPPL models to the logarithms of the indices closely corresponds to the observed trend of the logarithms of the indices, which was overall bullish before the crashes. The most predicted dates correspond to the start dates of the stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach. Therefore, the forecasted stock market crashes are the results of the bursting of speculative bubbles and, consequently, of the price deviation from their fundamental values.

The adoption of the LPPL model might be very beneficial for financial market participants in reducing their financial crash risk exposure and managing their equity portfolio risk.

This study differs from previous research in several ways. First of all, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the authors' paper is among the first to show stock market crises detection and prediction, specifically in African countries, since they generate recessionary economic and social dynamics on a large extent and on multiple regional and global scales. Second, in this manuscript, the authors employ the LPPL model, which can expect the most probable day of the beginning of the crash by analyzing excessive stock price volatility.

To elaborate the picture of credibility assessment by examining how participants of online discussion evaluate the informational credibility of conspiracy theories.

Descriptive quantitative analysis and qualitative content analysis of 2,663 posts submitted to seven Reddit threads discussing a conspiracy operation, that is, the damage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022. It was examined how the participants of online discussion assess the credibility of information constitutive of conspiracy theories speculating about (1) suspected actors responsible for the damage, (2) their motives and (3) the ways in which the damage was made. The credibility assessments focussed on diverse sources offering information about the above three factors.

The participants assessed the credibility of information by drawing on four main criteria: plausibility of arguments, honesty in argumentation, similarity to one's beliefs and provision of evidence. Most assessments were negative and indicated doubt about the informational believability of conspiracy theories about the damage. Of the information sources referred to in the discussion, the posts submitted by fellow participants, television programmes and statements provided by governmental organizations were judged most critically, due to implausible argumentation and advocacy of biased views.

As the study focuses on a sample of posts dealing with conspiracy theories about a particular event, the findings cannot be generalized to concern the informational credibility conspiracy narratives.

The study pioneers by providing an in-depth analysis of the nature of credibility assessments by focussing on information constitutive of conspiracy theories.

This study aims to test the validity of the Rajan theory in South Africa and other selected emerging markets (Chile, Peru and Brazil) during the period 1975–2019.

In this study, the researchers used time-series data to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with hierarchical priors. The BVAR technique has the advantage of being able to accommodate a wide cross-section of variables without running out of degrees of freedom. It is also able to deal with dense parameterization by imposing structure on model coefficients via prior information and optimal choice of the degree of formativeness.

The results for all countries except Peru confirmed the Rajan hypotheses, indicating that inequality contributes to high indebtedness, resulting in financial fragility. However, for Peru, this study finds it contradicts the theory. This study controlled for monetary policy shock and found the results differing country-specific.

The findings suggest that an escalating level of inequality leads to financial fragility, which implies that policymakers ought to be cautious of excessive inequality when endeavouring to contain the risk of financial fragility, by implementing sound structural reform policies that aim to attract investments consistent with job creation, development and growth in these countries. Policymakers should also be cautious when implementing policy tools (redistributive policies, a sound monetary policy), as they seem to increase the risk of excessive credit growth and financial fragility, and they need to treat income inequality as an important factor relevant to macroeconomic aggregates and financial fragility.

The present work focuses on evaluating the physical and mechanical characteristics of geopolymer concrete (GPC) by replacing the sodium silicate waste (SSW) in place of traditional river sand. The aim is to create eco-friendly concrete that mitigates the depletion of conventional river sand and conserves natural resources. Additionally, the study seeks to explore how the moisture content of filler materials affects the performance of GPC.

SSW obtained from the sodium silicate industry was used as filler material in the production of GPC, which was cured at ambient temperature. Instead of the typical conventional river sand, SSW was substituted at 25 and 50% of its weight. Three distinct moisture conditions were applied to both river sand and SSW. These conditions were classified as oven dry (OD), air dry (AD) and saturated surface dry (SSD).

As the proportion of SSW increased, there was a decrease in the slump of the GPC. The setting time was significantly affected by the higher percentage of SSW. The presence of angular-shaped SSW particles notably improved the compressive strength of GPC when replacing a portion of the river sand with SSW. When exposed to elevated temperatures, the performance of the GPC with SSW exhibited similar behavior to that of the mix containing conventional river sand, but it demonstrated a lower residual strength following exposure to elevated temperatures.

Exploring the possible utilization of SSW as a substitute for river sand in GPC, and its effects on the performance of the proposed mix. Analyzing, how varying moisture conditions affect the performance of GPC containing SSW. Evaluating the response of the GPC with SSW exposed to elevated temperatures in contrast to conventional river sand.