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The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The authors investigate whether firm-specific vulnerability to climate change influences foreign exchange hedging, using a novel text-based measure of firm-level climate change exposure generated by state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms.

The authors' empirical analysis includes firm-fixed effects, random-effects regressions, propensity score matching (PSM), entropy balancing, an instrumental-variable analysis and using an exogenous shock as a quasi-natural experiment.

The authors' findings suggest that greater climate change exposure brings about a significant reduction in exchange rate hedging. Companies more exposed to climate change may invest significant resources to address climate change risk, such that they have fewer resources available for currency risk management. Additionally, firms seriously coping with climate change risk may view exchange rate risk as relatively less important in comparison to the risk posed by climate change. Notably, the authors also find that the negative effect of climate change exposure on currency hedging can be specifically attributed to the regulatory aspect of climate change risk rather than the physical dimension, suggesting that companies view the regulatory dimension of climate change as more critical.

Recent studies have demonstrated that climatic fluctuations represent one of the most recent sources of unpredictability, thereby impacting the economy and financial markets (Barnett et al., 2020; Bolton and Kacperczyk, 2020; Engle et al., 2020). The authors' study advances this field of research by revealing that company-specific exposure to climate change serves as a significant determinant of corporate currency hedging, thus expanding the existing knowledge base.

After completion of the case study, the students will be able to understand the different risks associated with a business, focusing on price risk and the importance of price risk management in business; understand and evaluate the products available for hedging price risk through exchange-traded derivatives in the Indian scenario; and understand and evaluate the different strategies for price risk management through exchange-traded derivatives in the Indian scenario.

The case study pertains to a small business, M/s Sethi Jewellers. The enterprise is being run by Shri Charan Jeet Sethi and his son Tejinder Sethi. The business is located in Jain Bazar, Jammu, UT, in Northern India. The business was started in 1972 by Charan Jeet’s father. They deal in a wide range of jewelry products and are well-established jewelers known for selling quality ornaments. Tejinder (MBA in marketing) was instrumental in revamping his business recently. Under his leadership, the business has experienced rapid transformation. The business has grown from a one-room shop fully managed by Tejinder’s grandfather to a multistory showroom with several artisans, sales staff and security persons. Through his e-store, Tejinder has a bulk order from a client where the client requires him to accept the order with a small token at the current price and deliver the final product three months from now. Tejinder is in a dilemma about accepting or rejecting the large order. Second, if he accepts, should he buy the entire gold now or wait to buy it later at a lower price? He is also considering hedging the price risk through exchange-traded derivatives. However, he is not entirely sure, as he has a few apprehensions regarding the same, and he is also not fully aware of the process and the instruments he has to use for hedging the price risk on the exchange.

The case study is aimed to cater to undergraduate, postgraduate and MBA students in the field of finance. This case study can be used for students interested in commodity derivatives, risk management and market microstructure.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 1: Accounting and finance.

The purpose of this paper is to scrutinise the effectiveness of four derivative exchanges’ enforcement efforts since 2007. These exchanges include the Commodity Exchange Inc. and ICE Futures US from the United States and ICE Futures Europe and the London Metal Exchange from the UK.

The paper examines 799 enforcement notices published by four exchanges through a behavioural science lens: HUMANS conceived by Hunt (2023) in Humanizing Rules: Bringing Behavioural Science to Ethics and Compliance.

The paper finds the effectiveness of the exchanges’ enforcement efforts to be a mixed picture as financial markets transition from the digital to artificial intelligence era. Humans remain a key cog in the wheel of market participants’ trading operations, albeit their roles have changed. Despite this, some elements of exchanges’ enforcement regimes have not kept pace with the move from floor to remote trading. However, in other respects, their efforts are or should be, effective, at least in behavioural terms.

The paper’s findings are arguably limited to exchanges based in Anglophone jurisdictions. The information published by the exchanges is variable, making “like-for-like” comparisons difficult in some areas.

The paper makes several recommendations that, if adopted, could help exchanges to increase the potency of their enforcement programmes.

A key aim of the paper is to shift the lens through which the debate concerning the efficacy of exchange-level oversight is conducted. Hitherto, a legal lens has been used, whereas this paper uses a behavioural lens.

This paper aims to accommodate the influence of both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the relationship between oil price and exchange-rate returns in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries through an interaction term (EPGR).

The authors use continuous wavelet transform (CWT), wavelet coherence (WC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC). First, the authors apply the CWT to examine the evolution of oil prices, EPGR and exchange rate returns. Second, the authors use WC to investigate the relationship between oil price and exchange rate returns (excluding EPGR). Third, the authors use PWC to account for EPGR’s impact on the oil exchange rate returns dynamics and explore partial correlations in the oil and exchange rate returns dynamics.

The empirical results generally show that EPGR is a key driver in the oil and exchange rate returns nexus.

The relevance of EPGR in influencing exchange rate volatility is confirmed by the findings. As a result, it is critical for government officials and foreign exchange investors to use EPGR as a leading indicator when establishing foreign exchange trading strategies and economic forecasts.

This study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to apply a wavelet-based technique to account for EPGR in the relationship between oil and exchange rate returns in the BRICS countries.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a generalization of the time-varying correlation elliptical copula models and to analyse its impact on the tail risk of a portfolio of foreign currencies during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The authors consider a multivariate time series model where marginal dynamics are driven by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA)–Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model, and the dependence structure among the residuals is given by an elliptical copula function. The correlation coefficient follows an autoregressive equation where the autoregressive coefficient is a function of the past values of the correlation. The model is applied to a portfolio of a couple of exchange rates, specifically US dollar–Japanese Yen and US dollar–Euro and compared with two alternative specifications of the correlation coefficient: constant and with autoregressive dynamics.

The use of the new model results in a more conservative evaluation of the tail risk of the portfolio measured by the value-at-risk and the expected shortfall suggesting a more prudential capital allocation policy.

The main contribution of the paper consists in the introduction of a time-varying correlation model where the past values of the correlation coefficient impact on the autoregressive structure.

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.

The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.

The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.

This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.

This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.

This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).

An exponential generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is applied to estimate the ERV of Indonesia and ten main trade partners using quarterly data from 2006 to 2020. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation is applied to estimate the impact of ERV on cross-border trade. Impacts from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic are covered. Dynamic panel data is used for the robustness test.

In the short-run, ERV significantly affects exports to most of the top partners (positively, negatively or both). In the long run, asymmetric effects occur in Indonesia’s exports to five top destinations. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah mainly supports exports in the short term. Imports from top partners are also affected by ERV in both the short run and, to a lesser extent, in the long run. Both the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced trade: for most cases, in the short run. The dynamic panel model suggests that ERV has asymmetric impact on cross-border trade in the long run.

Exchange rate strategies need to avoid a single-side policy approach and, instead, account for exporter and importer differences in risk behaviour and an asymmetric response to ERV in trade. Policymakers need to consider policies that stabilise the currency.

This study provides evidence that cross-border trade can react asymmetrically to the exchange rate uncertainty and that the impacts of real ERV are asymmetric as well. The authors also apply a dynamic panel that signals that ERV matters in the long run for Indonesian trade with top partners.

The online sourcing, supply, and purchase of illicit drugs is fast transforming drug markets worldwide. Although the long-term development of simple communications technology over time (from pagers to mobile phones) continues to impact and extend local drug supply dynamics, it is the recent developments of dark web cryptomarkets, social media applications (like Instagram), encrypted messaging applications (like WhatsApp), and surface web platforms, such as LeafedOut, that are changing the drug supply landscape online. The use of technology in drug supply has tended to go hand in hand with improving the efficiency of supply and opportunities to reduce exchange-related risks for both buyers and sellers. In relation to app-mediated supply, for example, the use of encrypted messaging provides enhanced security for arranging purchases beyond the lurking surveillance of law enforcement. Despite the perception of improved safety, however, the use of social media apps and other online platforms can expose both buyers and sellers to risk scenarios they may not fully appreciate. Drawing on two recent studies on the use of social media apps and the online platform LeafedOut as mediators of drugs supply, this chapter will consider how these mid-range (between cryptomarkets and traditional telecommunications such as basic texting/calling and material ‘street’ markets) virtual spaces are being utilised for drug supply and the extent to which this is ‘just more of the same’ or provides new structures and experiences for those engaging with it and in what ways. Consideration will also be given to contradictions in the mid-range market space where the broad perception of reduced risk from the use of encrypted messaging can in fact produce greater levels of risk for some buyers and sellers depending on how they engage with the process/es.

The growing business complexity has caused many risks (e.g. operational, financial, reputational, cybersecurity, regulatory and compliance) that threaten companies' sustainability and have received attention from regulators, investors, and businesses. The authors present a model for assessing and reporting corporate risk by examining the indicators underlying corporate risk reporting.

A thorough review of the literature and semi-structured interviews with experts were conducted and the fuzzy Delphi technique was used to obtain consensus and screening of risks. The relationships between these risk indicators were recognized, weighted and prioritized by employing a hybrid Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Model (DEMATEL) method integrated with Analytic Network Process (ANP) (DEMATEL-ANP [DANP]) approach. Finally, using the Iranian setting of corporate risk reporting, a model was developed to calculate the risk-reporting scores.

The results indicate that risk disclosure quality is more important than risk disclosures' textual properties and quantity. According to the experts, reporting the key risks that the company faces, management's approach to dealing with these risks and quantifying their impact are more important than the other indicators. The results also show that risk reporting in Iran lacks quantitative and specific information, and most risk disclosures are sticky.

The data have been prepared and analyzed according to the unique Iranian reporting environment, which should be considered when interpreting the results.

The results of this research can be used by the regulators of the Stock Exchange Organizations (SEO) to evaluate corporate risk reports and rank companies. Results are also relevant to investors and policymakers to identify companies with poor risk disclosure and to take necessary measures to improve their reporting practices.

This paper contributes to the social and governance literature by presenting the importance of risk reporting in corporate disclosures.

The unique Iranian setting of corporate risk reporting furthers the understanding of risk reporting and thus provides education, policy, practice and research implications for other emerging economies like Iran. Many prior studies focus mainly on the quality of risk disclosure, and other aspects of corporate risk disclosure presented in the study have remained largely overlooked. The corporate risk reporting attributes identified in the study are relevant to the rise of non-financial risks, the textual and qualitative nature of risk reporting and textual risk disclosures.