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1 – 10 of 265Masagus M. Ridhwan, Affandi Ismail and Peter Nijkamp
Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying…
Abstract
Purpose
Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying results, while the causes of such differences have not been analyzed systematically. The present study aims to fill the gap in the literature.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the authors compile 543 empirical estimates from 51 studies of the exchange rate-growth nexus in order to meta-analyze its relationship. Meta-analysis allows the authors to quantitatively synthesize previous empirical studies and explain the variation in the results. This method also enables us to investigate the possibility of publication bias, as there is a tendency in research only to report results that are both statistically significant and show the expected signs.
Findings
After addressing publication bias and heterogeneity in the estimates, the meta-regression results show that RER depreciation (or undervaluation) genuinely favors economic growth. On average, RER depreciation has a greater impact on economic growth in developing countries than the developed ones. The study’s results imply that maintaining an undervalued RER could be favorable to spur economic growth, especially in developing countries.
Originality/value
Initially predominant in the medical literature, meta-analysis has been on a rising edge in economics. This progress has produced many systematic quantitative review analyses with continuously improved statistical-econometric practices related to economic variables. However, to the authors’ knowledge, no comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth has been conducted and published in any publicly accessible academic outlet. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature.
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This article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these…
Abstract
Purpose
This article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The Mundell–Fleming model (MMF) is the analytical framework adopted in this paper with import demand and export supply functions estimation borrowed to Thirlwall (1979). This study covers four countries in West Africa from 1990 to 2021. The estimation procedure used is an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration.
Findings
The findings reveal that there is a strong marginal propensity to import in the WAEMU countries. The hypothesis of a non-significant price effect on imports in the short-term is confirmed for several countries while only Togo satisfies the MLRC in the short and long run.
Originality/value
This study presents several originalities: (1) it evaluates MLRC with a clear analytical framework; (2) unlike other studies, this article quantifies the MLRC from a theoretical, econometric and empirical point of view; (3) this article presents the results country by country in order to reveal heterogeneity between countries; (4) this study adds to the Marshall–Lerner condition for the derivation of Robinson by considering a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium.
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Yahuza Abdul Rahman, Anthony Kofi Osei-Fosu and Daniel Sakyi
This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.
Findings
Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.
Practical implications
The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.
Originality/value
The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.
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Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.
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This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a…
Abstract
This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a direct sense and then in an indirect sense, i.e., through a transmission channel of this influence. By applying the autoregressive distributed technique with staggered lags (ARDL), over a period ranging from 1986 to 2019, the results showed that the influence of external borrowing resources on growth seems to be unfavorable in the short term but positive in the long term, hence the importance of the empirical technique chosen. Second, three interaction variables were tested, namely total government expenditure, government investment expenditure, and the real effective exchange rate. The results obtained call for better attention to the channels identified to maximize the positive influence of external public debt on the country's economic progress.
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The relationship between real exchange rate and services export diversification is at the heart of this study.
Abstract
Purpose
The relationship between real exchange rate and services export diversification is at the heart of this study.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis is performed using a sample of 113 countries over the period 1985–2014, and the 2-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The analysis uses both the Theil index and Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.
Findings
The analysis shows that over the full sample, the real effective exchange rate appreciation induces a greater services export diversification. This outcome applies to high-income countries and developing countries. However, the positive effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration is lower in least developed countries than in other countries. Finally, the effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration in tax haven countries depends on the indicator of services export concentration, as this is positive for the Theil index and negative for the Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.
Research limitations/implications
These findings highlight the strong influence of real exchange policies on countries' path of services export diversification.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this topic is being addressed in the empirical literature for the first time.
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Unggul Heriqbaldi, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Rossanto Dwi Handoyo, Alfira Cahyaning Rifami and Hilda Rohmawati
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Design/methodology/approach
An exponential generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is applied to estimate the ERV of Indonesia and ten main trade partners using quarterly data from 2006 to 2020. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation is applied to estimate the impact of ERV on cross-border trade. Impacts from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic are covered. Dynamic panel data is used for the robustness test.
Findings
In the short-run, ERV significantly affects exports to most of the top partners (positively, negatively or both). In the long run, asymmetric effects occur in Indonesia’s exports to five top destinations. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah mainly supports exports in the short term. Imports from top partners are also affected by ERV in both the short run and, to a lesser extent, in the long run. Both the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced trade: for most cases, in the short run. The dynamic panel model suggests that ERV has asymmetric impact on cross-border trade in the long run.
Practical implications
Exchange rate strategies need to avoid a single-side policy approach and, instead, account for exporter and importer differences in risk behaviour and an asymmetric response to ERV in trade. Policymakers need to consider policies that stabilise the currency.
Originality/value
This study provides evidence that cross-border trade can react asymmetrically to the exchange rate uncertainty and that the impacts of real ERV are asymmetric as well. The authors also apply a dynamic panel that signals that ERV matters in the long run for Indonesian trade with top partners.
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Farid Irani, Abobaker Al.Al. Hadood, Salih Katircioglu and Setareh Katircioglu
This paper focuses on the role of sentiment and monetary policy (both domestic and the United States (US)) in explaining the changes in the Mexican tourism firms' stock returns…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper focuses on the role of sentiment and monetary policy (both domestic and the United States (US)) in explaining the changes in the Mexican tourism firms' stock returns for the period 1998M03–2019M12.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted the ordinary least square regression estimations using various models to investigate the impact of sentiment and monetary policy changes on tourism firms' stock returns. Furthermore, to provide a robust check, the authors run all regression models based on the capital asset pricing model by regressing the excess returns of tourism firms' stocks on all independent variables.
Findings
Empirical findings reveal that the changes in Mexican consumer sentiment have a stronger positive effect on tourism firms' stock returns than Mexican business sentiment changes. However, the US consumer and business sentiment are irrelevant to tourism firms' stock returns. Moreover, this study’s results indicate that changes in the US interest rates positively influence tourism firms' stock returns. This study’s findings show that as the monetary divergence between Mexico and the US (differential real interest rates) widens, the lower is the tourism firms' stock returns.
Originality/value
This study is the first to extend the prior studies by examining the effects of sentiment and monetary policy (both domestic and US role) on Mexican tourism stock return.
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Shahanara Basher, Abdullahil Mamun, Harun Bal, Nazamul Hoque and Mahi Uddin
This study aims to offer an up-to-date estimate of capital flight from selected emerging Asian economies and examine the anti-growth phenomenon of capital flight by using annual…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to offer an up-to-date estimate of capital flight from selected emerging Asian economies and examine the anti-growth phenomenon of capital flight by using annual data for the period 1981–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
The study relies on residual methods to derive the estimate of capital flight with necessary adjustments. It then applies the autoregressive distributed lag Bounds testing approach in examining the impact of capital flight on the economic growth of Asian emerging economies.
Findings
The study identifies capital flight as the attributor to the slower economic growth of the selected emerging economies of Asia.
Practical implications
Apart from appropriate policies addressing the issues causing capital flight, unleashing the way of private sector-led growth of the emerging countries with necessary policy, infrastructural, institutional and regulatory support can rather help them retain and repatriate domestic capital.
Originality/value
The capital flight estimates in earlier studies are antithetical as they differ in terms of definition and estimation procedure. Again, the growth effect of capital flight in these economies has received meager attention in research and policy debates. Furthermore, being country-specific or region-specific, existing studies are unable to compare the growth effect of capital flight for different emerging economies in this region. Examining the growth effects for a large number of countries separately based on a common estimate of capital flight can resolve these issues that this study aims to do.
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Muzffar Hussain Dar and Md. Zulquar Nain
This study examines the possibility of asymmetric impact of inflation on the financial development (FD) in the case of Indian economy from 1980 to 2020. Moreover, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the possibility of asymmetric impact of inflation on the financial development (FD) in the case of Indian economy from 1980 to 2020. Moreover, the finance–growth hypothesis is also tested.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors incorporated the “Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag” (NARDL) model due to Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the asymmetric impact of inflation on financial development. Asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers are also used to track the traverse of any short-run distortion towards the long-run cointegration.
Findings
The results revealed that inflation impacts the financial development negatively whereas the economic growth (EG) and trade openness have a positive effect. However, the effect of inflation on financial development is not symmetric. Moreover, the findings support the demand-led growth hypothesis.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study examining the asymmetric effects of inflation on financial development in the Indian context. In addition, instead of using a single proxy to measure financial development, an index for financial development encompassing different aspects of the financial system has been incorporated.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-02-2023-0094
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