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Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Findings

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

Originality/value

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain and Abdol Samad Nawi

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP)…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Design/methodology/approach

The hedonic pricing model has been adopted as econometric model for this research to investigate the relationship between residential property price against macroeconomics indicator. The data for residential property price and macroeconomic variables were collected from 1991 to 2019. Multiple linear regression had been adopted to find the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

Findings

The result shows that the GDP has a significant positive impact on residential property price, while exchange rate has no significant impact although it was positive. In addition, the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the residential property price and has a negative relationship. Similar to the wage that shows the negative relationship with residential property prices. Moreover, during the pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia, this research shows a more transparent view of the relationship between residential property price and the macroeconomic issues of GDP, exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Originality/value

The findings of this research found that macroeconomics issue cannot be eliminated due to Malaysia is a developing country, and there will always be an issue that will happen, but the issues can be reduced to maximise the advantages, e.g. during COVID-19, the solution to fight against COVID-19 were crucial and weaken the macroeconomics issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

Findings

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

Originality/value

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Subhamoy Chatterjee and R.P. Mohanty

Interest rate derivatives (IRDs) are the essential components of financial risk management and are used across various industry sectors. The objective is to analyze the…

Abstract

Purpose

Interest rate derivatives (IRDs) are the essential components of financial risk management and are used across various industry sectors. The objective is to analyze the differences in approach to managing interest rate risks between the Indian corporates that execute IRDs and the ones that do not.

Design/methodology/approach

Interest rate fluctuations require Indian corporates to hedge their exposures in foreign currency interest rates. This is all the more true for mid-sized corporates because of their balance sheet exposures. Additionally, they may not have the resources to formulate risk management policies. This paper analyzes data collected from financial statements of a diverse set of companies that use IRD and helps in formulating such a strategy.

Findings

The results indicate significant differences for some of the parameters like information asymmetry and agency cost between users and non-users of IRDs. The study further suggests causality between users of derivatives and parameters like size, growth and debt.

Research limitations/implications

The study compares users and non-users of IRDs, thereby identifying factors unique to users of IRDs. It also studies causality relations which explain the motivation to do IRDs. Thus, it enables risk managers to use this as a reference point to decide on their strategies.

Originality/value

While there are multiple studies across geographies and sectors including commercial banks in India on the usage of interest rate swaps, this study focuses on Indian mid-tier corporates. Furthermore, the study distinguishes between users and non-users based on financial parameters, which in turn would provide a framework for decision-hedging strategies.

Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Barkha Dhingra, Shallu Batra, Vaibhav Aggarwal, Mahender Yadav and Pankaj Kumar

The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a comprehensive review of how stock market volatility is influenced by macro and firm-level factors. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing the major factors impacting stock market volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a combination of bibliometric and systematic literature review techniques. A data set of 54 articles published in quality journals from the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) list is gathered from the Scopus database. This data set is used to determine the leading contributors and contributions. The content analysis of these articles sheds light on the factors influencing market volatility and the potential research directions in this subject area.

Findings

The findings show that researchers in this sector are becoming more interested in studying the association of stock markets with “cryptocurrencies” and “bitcoin” during “COVID-19.” The outcomes of this study indicate that most studies found oil prices, policy uncertainty and investor sentiments have a significant impact on market volatility. However, there were mixed results on the impact of institutional flows and algorithmic trading on stock volatility, and a consensus cannot be established. This study also identifies the gaps and paves the way for future research in this subject area.

Originality/value

This paper fills the gap in the existing literature by comprehensively reviewing the articles on major factors impacting stock market volatility highlighting the theoretical relationship and empirical results.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 February 2024

Simon D. Norton

Free banking theory, as developed in Adam Smith’s 1776 treatise, “The Wealth of Nations” is a useful tool in determining the extent to which the “invisible hand of the market”…

Abstract

Purpose

Free banking theory, as developed in Adam Smith’s 1776 treatise, “The Wealth of Nations” is a useful tool in determining the extent to which the “invisible hand of the market” should prevail in regulatory policy. The purpose of this study is to provide a timely review of the literature, evaluating the theory’s relevance to regulation of financial technology generally and cryptocurrencies (cryptos) specifically.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is qualitative, applying free banking theory as developed in the literature to technology-defined environments. Recent legislative developments in the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the UK, European Union and the USA, are drawn upon.

Findings

Participants in volatile cryptocurrency markets should bear the consequences of inadvisable investments in accordance with free banking theory. The decentralised nature of cryptocurrencies and the exchanges on which these are traded militate against coordinated oversight by central banks, supporting a qualified free banking approach. Differences regarding statutory definitions of cryptos as units of exchange, tokens or investment securities and the propensity of these to transition between categories across the business cycle render attempts at concerted classification at the international level problematic. Prevention of criminality through extension of Suspicious Activity Reporting to exchanges and intermediaries should be the principal objective of policymakers, rather than definitions of evolving products that risk stifling technological innovation.

Originality/value

The study proposes that instead of a traditional regulatory approach to cryptos, which emphasises holders’ safety and compensation, a free banking approach combined with a focus on criminality would be a more effective and pragmatic way forward.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 32 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 24 April 2024

Frank Warnock, James C. Wheat, Justin Drake, Mitch Debrah and Archie Hungwe

South Africa had formally introduced a policy of inflation targeting (IT) in February 2000. By December 2001, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, after reading the…

Abstract

South Africa had formally introduced a policy of inflation targeting (IT) in February 2000. By December 2001, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, after reading the latest statistics, was concerned with the disappointing economic data. Economic activity had slowed drastically, to the point that the country appeared to be heading for a recession. The gloomy statistics forced the governor to consider whether the country had pursued the right policy. Persistently high unemployment, one legacy of the apartheid era, meant that South Africa did not have the luxury of waiting for new policies to bear fruit. With the inflation forecast to exceed the mandated target, the governor would have to tighten monetary policy, which would further restrict investment. Was it is time for South Africa to change course?

Details

Darden Business Publishing Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-7890
Published by: University of Virginia Darden School Foundation

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 November 2023

Mohammad Rifat Rahman, Md. Mufidur Rahman, Athkia Subat and Tanzika Imam Tarin

This study empirically aims to examine the relationship between Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry growth and macroeconomic indicators such as the inflation rate, gross domestic…

Abstract

Purpose

This study empirically aims to examine the relationship between Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry growth and macroeconomic indicators such as the inflation rate, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, exchange rate and export growth through the long- and short-run relationship.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the time series data from 1986 to 2020, this study was developed based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework for co-integration. In contrast, the Toda–Yamamoto Granger Causality approach was also used for finding the direction of causality.

Findings

This study used the ARDL bounds test, which found strong co-integration among the variables, indicating a long-term relationship between them. In the long run, inflation, exchange rate and export growth significantly positively influence the pharmaceutical industry’s growth. Surprisingly, an FDI inflow has a negative impact. In the short term, the exchange rate and GDP growth were found to influence the growth of the pharmaceutical industry positively. Bidirectional causality between the growth of the pharmaceutical industry and the exchange rate was also identified using the Granger causality approach.

Research limitations/implications

This paper emphasizes developing the policy as well as making concrete decisions regarding the development of the pharmaceutical industry and economic development in Bangladesh. The results also highlight the necessity for strategic macroeconomic management to support this sector’s long-term development and global competitiveness.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is conducted to identify the short- and long-run relationship of pharmaceutical industry development with the economic indicators and progress, where no study has been found on this dimension.

Details

International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6123

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2022

Sudhanshu Sekhar Pani

This paper aims to examine the dynamics of house prices in metropolitan cities in an emerging economy. The purpose of this study is to characterise the house price dynamics and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the dynamics of house prices in metropolitan cities in an emerging economy. The purpose of this study is to characterise the house price dynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The author explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics, using data for 35 Indian cities with a million-plus population. The research methodology uses panel econometrics allowing for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and non-stationary data. The author tests for spatial differences and analyses the income elasticity of prices, the role of construction costs and lending to the real estate industry by commercial banks.

Findings

Long-term fundamentals drive the Indian housing markets, where wealth parameters are stronger than supply-side parameters such as construction costs or availability of financing for housing projects. The long-term elasticity of house prices to aggregate household deposits (wealth proxy) varies considerably across cities. However, the elasticity estimated at 0.39 is low. The highest coefficient is for Ludhiana (1.14), followed by Bhubaneswar (0.78). The short-term dynamics are robust and show spatial heterogeneity. Short-term momentum (lagged housing price changes) has a parameter value of 0.307. The momentum factor is the crucial dynamic in the short term. The second driver, the reversion rate to long-term equilibrium (estimated at −0.18), is higher than rates reported from developed markets.

Research limitations/implications

This research applies to markets that require some home equity contributions from buyers of housing services.

Practical implications

Stakeholders can characterise stable housing markets based on long-term fundamental value and short-run house price dynamics. Because stable housing markets benefit all stakeholders, weak or non-existent mean reversion dynamics may prompt the intervention of policymakers. The role of urban planners, and local and regional governance, is essential to remove the bottlenecks from the demand side or supply side factors that can lead to runaway prices.

Originality/value

Existing literature is concerned about the risk of a housing bubble due to relaxed credit norms. To prevent housing market bubbles, some regulators require higher contributions from home buyers in the form of equity. The dynamics of house prices in markets with higher owner equity requirements vary from high-leverage markets. The influence of wealth effects is examined using novel data sets. This research, documents in an emerging market context, the observations cited in low-leverage developed markets such as Germany and Japan.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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