Search results

The purpose of this paper is to investigate returns of initial public offerings (IPOs) in an emerging market and differences in the returns of privatized and non‐privatized offerings.

Market‐adjusted return is computed as daily cumulative excess returns for six‐ and 12‐month periods. Long‐run performance is measured by calculating market‐adjusted buy and hold return assuming that shareholders pursue strategies of 1, 2 and 3 years.

The paper finds that underpricing exists even in emerging markets and at a higher level than in developed countries. Average returns are over 55 per cent and is comparable with that of Malaysia, Mexico, Poland and Thailand. POs generally outperform the market, with the privatized IPOs offering superior excess returns than the non‐privatized IPOs. Excess returns diminish by the end of three years. The pattern of the returns seen in this case is different to similar studies elsewhere, where excess returns are observed over four to five years after the initial listing.

The number of IPOs investigated here is comparatively small. However, because the sample consists of a mix of privatized vs non‐privatized companies, the results provide useful insights on factors that may drive the unusual returns. While underpricing is common in most IPOs, the state when privatizing enterprises seem to be offering investors excessive returns.

This paper provides researchers and policymakers some insights into the workings of capital markets in emerging economies.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an in-depth performance evaluation of funds offered by the Turkish pension system.

This paper compares aggregate fund index returns with the corresponding asset class returns, estimates a factor model to decompose excess returns to factor exposures, i.e., β return and excess return originating from residual α and analyzes persistence of fund returns using migration tables and Fama–MacBeth regressions and tests for market timing ability.

Majority of pension funds are unable to generate excess returns. Majority of funds are unable to generate a positive α and fund returns are predominantly driven factor exposures. There is evidence for slight persistence in returns, mainly due to factor exposures and funds do not exhibit market timing ability.

In this paper, the authors perform an in-depth analysis of pension fund performance for the Turkish pension fund system. The authors identify weaknesses and strengths of the pension fund industry and provide policy recommendations for a better design of pension fund system.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financial flexibility as represented by excess cash holdings and debt capacity upon firm returns after periods of high market uncertainty.

Days of high uncertainty are identified from 1987-2011 using the VXO Index (implied volatility of the S&P 100) yielding approximately 45,000 firm events. The main variables of interest are excess cash (Duchin et al., 2010) and debt capacity. Two financial constraint indexes are used as controls in a cross-sectional OLS regression.

The precautionary value of cash during and after times of uncertainty is beneficial. A positive relationship exists for periods of up to two years following the initial day of high uncertainty. Positive BHRs exist on a zero-cost trade investing in a portfolio of high excess cash firms and shorting a portfolio of cash constrained firms. The value of excess debt capacity, on the other hand, is harder to discern; positive profits are obtainable on a zero-cost trade while regression estimates are typically insignificant on average.

This paper expands the financial flexibility literature by testing the effects of financial flexibility on returns following days of high market uncertainty.

This study aims to determine whether the stock holdings of equity mutual funds are informative for predicting future stock performance in the Chinese market. It is a puzzle that actively managed mutual funds underperform passive benchmarks, whereas retail investors still delegate investment decisions to the fund managers. The present study sheds light on whether mutual fund managers possess security selection skills in their top ten holdings.

By regression analysis and portfolio sorting, this study focuses on 830 Chinese A-share stocks in the industry research reports from the Guotai Junan Securities Company. It collects mutual fund's top ten holdings data from the Wind Financial Terminal between 2019Q1 and 2021Q1. As robustness checks, the result holds for the fixed-effect model, an additional measure of ranks in the top ten holdings, the predictability test based on the confusion matrix and two stage least square (2SLS) regression.

The authors find that the top ten holdings by equity mutual funds are informative for predicting stock performance and can provide valuable information for investors to support their decision-making.

The findings of this study provide insightful guidance for retail investors in making investment decisions and support the hypothesis that active fund management adds value.

Firstly, the authors find that the top ten holdings of Chinese mutual funds show significantly positive signals for future stock excess returns, indicating the selection skills of fund managers. Secondly, the above positive relationship exhibits a diminishing marginal effect with more funds holding this stock. Thirdly, the authors find that the predictability horizon of the number of overweighing funds is up to three quarters and then diminishes in the fourth quarter. Finally, investors have a 59% prediction accuracy for the whole stock sample and an 85% precision conditional on the predicted positive subsample to outperform the market. The authors also address the endogeneity and reverse causality issues.

This study aims to draw on a less explored predictor – the average correlation of pairwise returns on industry portfolios – to predict stock market returns (SMRs) in the USA.

This study uses the average correlation approach of Pollet and Wilson (2010) and predicts the SMRs in the USA. The model is estimated using monthly data for a long time horizon, from July 1963 to December 2018, for the portfolios comprising 48 Fama-French industries. The model is extended to examine the effects of a longer lag structure of one-month to four-month lags and to control for the effects of a number of variables – average variance (AV), cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), term spread (TS), default spread (DS), risk-free rate returns (R_f) and lagged excess market returns (R_s).

The study finds that the two-month lagged average correlation of returns on individual industry portfolios, used individually and collectively with financial predictors and economic factors, predicts excess returns on the stock market in an effective manner.

The methodology and results are of interest to academics as they could further explore the use of average correlation to improve the predictive powers of their models.

Market practitioners could include the average correlation in their asset pricing models to improve the predictions for the future trend in stock market returns. Investors could consider including average correlation in their forecasting models, along with the traditional financial ratios and economic indicators. They could adjust their expected returns to a lower level when the average correlation increases during a recession.

The finding that recession periods have effects on the SMRs would be useful for the policymakers. The understanding of the co-movement of returns on industry portfolios during a recession would be useful for the formulation of policies aimed at ensuring the stability of the financial markets.

The study contributes to the literature on three counts. First, the study uses industry portfolio returns – as compared to individual stock returns used in Pollet and Wilson (2010) – in constructing average correlation. When stock market becomes more volatile on returns, the individual stocks are more diverse on their performance; the comovement between individual stock returns might be dominated by the idiosyncratic component, which may not have any implications for future SMRs. Using the industry portfolio returns can potentially reduce such an effect by a large extent, and thus, can provide more reliable estimates. Second, the effects of business cycles could be better identified in a long sample period and through several sub-sample tests. This study uses a data set, which spans the period from July 1963 to December 2018. This long sample period covers multiple phases of business cycles. The daily data are used to compute the monthly and equally-weighted average correlation of returns on 48 Fama-French industry portfolios. Third, previous studies have often ignored the use of investors’ sentiments in their prediction models, while investors’ irrational decisions could have an important impact on expected returns (Huang et al., 2015). This study extends the analysis and incorporates investors’ sentiments in the model.

This study seeks to investigate the sensitivity of stock returns at the industry level to market, exchange rate and interest rate shocks in the four major European economies: France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.

The paper utilises the methodology of Campbell and Mei (1993) to decompose systematic risks into components attributable to news about future dividends (cash flows), real interest rates and excess returns.

In addition to significant market risk, the paper finds significant levels of exposure to exchange rate risk in industries in all four markets. Significant levels of interest rate risk are only identified in Germany and France. All three sources of risk contain significant information about future cash flows and excess returns.

Future research could investigate the extent of exposure in other markets, or investigate whether the findings change at the firm level. Additionally it could be investigated whether recent asset pricing work such as Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) can be utilised to investigate this research problem.

The paper identifies which industry portfolios have significant exposures and decomposes these risks. This information is relevant for investors and portfolio managers, as well as financial management within the firm.

The paper utilises an alternative econometric methodology to investigate the extent of exposure to exchange rate and interest risks in industrial portfolios in four European markets.

The purpose of this paper is to examine if the enactment of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) resulted in lower risk premium and return volatility in the US stock markets. The paper examines the two components of excess return (total risk premium) separately: the amount of volatility (risk) and the unit price of risk (risk premium).

The authors use a Component Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity approach to estimate the permanent and transitory component of share price volatility. The authors then use the predicted volatility to measure the unit price of risk and its changes due to the enactment of the SOX Act.

The results regarding excess returns indicate that the implementation of SOX had a positive effect on the market. A positive effect means a steady decrease in required excess rates of returns due to the implementation of SOX. The years leading up to the implementation of SOX are characterized by significant sources of uncertainty. Around the implementation of SOX, the authors observe a long-term reduction in return volatility (risk), and a temporary reduction in the unit price of risk. Subsequent to the implementation, investors gained confidence in the effectiveness of internal controls over the financial reporting process, which helped in reducing the information risk and, therefore, the risk premium.

The authors find that total risk premium decreased over extended periods. The authors conclude that the enactment of SOX helped in reducing the uncertainty in the US capital market resulting in a reduction of total risk premiums and hence the cost of capital.

The results have implications for policy makers, investors and researchers in general and those in the US markets in particular. The results are important because it allows policy makers and regulators to improve on how they design and implement accounting, market and finance regulations and reforms.

The study shows how financial markets react to regulations and the authors also provide information on investors’ reaction as firms adjust to changing regulations. The results of the study allows regulators to potentially use a more refined or targeted approach when introducing new regulations. It also allows investors to make informed investment decisions as they relate to risk premium requirements, which in turn may allow investors to allocate capital more efficiently.

There are many studies concerning the enactment of SOX but few, if any, existing studies examine the original intent of SOX: to calm the US equity markets and restore market confidence from a return volatility perspective. The results have implications for policy makers, investors and researchers in general and those in the US markets in particular. The results are important because it allows policy makers and regulators to improve on how they design and implement accounting, market and finance regulations and reforms.

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.

This paper delves into the ex ante rates of return demanded by the private sector in Indonesian public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects and the manifold factors emanating from project attributes that can influence these rates.

This paper analyzes feasibility studies of 37 PPP projects across different sectors. The studies were carefully selected based on relevance, completeness and validity of data. The analysis uses statistical techniques, including Levene’s tests, t-tests, ANOVA tests, Cohen’s effect size and Pearson correlations, to explore differences in cost of capital and excess returns across various attributes.

Based on the statistical analysis, no significant difference exists between the excess return of 200 basis points (bps) and the equity excess return of 0 bps. This suggests that the eligibility criteria for PPP projects require an internal rate of return (IRR) equal to the weighted average cost of capital plus 200 bps or an equity IRR equal to the cost of equity. The variations in the tested variables among diverse project attributes do not exhibit statistically significant disparities, even though specific attributes display moderate to high effect sizes.

This paper represents one of the first attempts to examine the rates of return demanded by the private sector in the context of Indonesian PPP projects. It comprehensively explores the factors that influence these rates, drawing on insights derived from feasibility studies.

This paper examines the pricing of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the secondary market on the first day of aftermarket trading. The focus of this study is on shifts in average returns over time, and does not necessarily address the cross‐sectional implications of a risk/return relation. The focus of the study is to examine the reasonableness of first day trading prices of IPOs. Initial returns of IPOs, issued during the period, January 1, 1999 to June 30, 2000, reached as much as 800 per cent, and the average initial return for the study sample was of 76 per cent. An important question is whether the high initial returns, observed during this time period, are appropriate for the level of risk associated with these new issues. Related to this question is the pricing of these securities by investment bankers (i.e. the offer price) and the pricing of the securities in aftermarket trading (i.e the secondary market). The results of this study indicate the presence of speculative excesses in the initial pricing of IPOs in aftermarket trading during 1999 and part of 2000. Further there is no indication that IPOs are excessively underpriced by investment bankers during the study period, January 1, 1997 through June 30, 2000. The results of this study may be useful to investors in making decisions about purchasing new public securities in the secondary market.