Search results

The present research study aims to explore the impact of the most recent Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which unfolded in October 2023, on global equity markets, including a wide range of both emerging and developed markets (as per the Morgan Stanley Capital Investment country classification).

The market model of event study methodology, with an estimation window of 200 days and 28-day event window (including event day, i.e. October 7, 2023), has been employed to investigate the event’s impact on the stock markets of different countries, with 24 emerging countries and 23 developed countries. The daily closing prices of the prominent indices of all 47 countries have been analyzed to examine the impact of the conflict on emerging markets, developed markets and overall global equity markets. Additionally, cross-sectional regression analysis has been performed to investigate the possible explanations for abnormal returns.

The findings of the study suggest the heterogeneous impact of the selected event on different markets. Notably, emerging markets and the overall global equity landscape exhibited substantial negative responses on the event day, as reflected in average abnormal returns of −0.47% and −0.397%, respectively. In contrast, developed markets displayed resilience, with no significant negative impact observed on the day of the event. A closer examination of individual countries revealed diverse reactions, with Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal standing out for their positive or resilient market responses. Poland, in particular, demonstrated significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 7.16% in the short-term and 8.59% in the long-term event windows (−7, +7 and −7, +20, respectively), emphasizing its robust performance amid the geopolitical turmoil. The study also found that, during various event windows, specific variables had a significant impact on the CARs.

The study suggests diversification and monitoring of geopolitical risks are key strategies for investors to enhance portfolio resilience during the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. This study identifies countries such as Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal with positive or resilient market reactions, providing practical insights for strategic investment decisions. Key takeaways include identifying resilient markets, leveraging opportunistic strategies and navigating market dynamics during geopolitical uncertainties.

As per the authors’ thorough investigation and review of the literature, the present study is the earliest attempt to explore the short-term and long-term impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on equity markets worldwide using the event study approach and cross-sectional regression analysis.

This study aims to test the market anomaly of herding behavior driven by the response to supply chain disruptions in extreme market conditions such as those observed during COVID-19. The authors empirically test the response of the capital market participants for B2B firms, resulting in herding behavior.

Using the event study approach based on the market model, the authors test the impact of supply chain disruptions and resultant herding behavior across six sectors and among different B2B firms. The authors used cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) and cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) to examine the significance of herding behavior across sectors.

The event study results show a significant effect of COVID-19 due to supply chain disruptions across specific sectors. Herding was detected across the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors. The authors also provide evidence of sector-specific disruption impact and herding behavior based on the black swan event and social learning theory.

The authors examine the impact of COVID-19 on herding in the stock market of an emerging economy due to extreme market conditions. This is one of the first studies analyzing lockdown-driven supply chain disruptions and subsequent sector-specific herding behavior. Investors and regulators should take sector-specific responses that are sophisticated during extreme market conditions, such as a pandemic, and update their responses as the situation unfolds.

This research investigates Airbnb’s financial implications in emerging economies and their potential to influence stock market profitability.

Employing a multifaceted approach, the study combines parametric and nonparametric tests, robustness checks, and regression analysis to assess the impact of Airbnb’s announcements on emerging economy stock markets.

Airbnb’s announcements affect emerging economies' stock markets with a distinct pattern of cumulative abnormal returns (CAR): negative before the announcement and positive afterward. Informed investors strategically leverage this opportunity through short selling before the announcement and acquiring positions following it. Regression analysis validates these trends, revealing that stock index returns and inbound tourism affect CAR before announcements, while GDP growth influences CAR afterward. Announcements pertaining to emerging economies exert a more pronounced impact on stock indices compared to city-specific announcements, with COVID-19 period announcements demonstrating greater significance in abnormal returns than non-COVID-19 period announcements.

This study advances existing literature through a comprehensive range of statistical tests, differentiation between emerging countries and cities, introduction of five macroeconomic variables, and reliance on credible primary Airbnb data. It highlights the potential for investors to leverage Airbnb announcements in emerging markets for stock market profits, emphasizing the need for adaptive investment strategies considering broader macroeconomic factors.

This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense sector, consisting of weapons manufacturers.

The authors use the event study methodology to quantify the impact. That is, the authors assume that markets are efficient, and abnormal stock returns around the event dates capture the magnitudes of the impacts of the two events studied on European defense sector companies. The authors use the capital asset pricing model and two different multifactor models to estimate expected stock returns, which serve as the benchmark necessary to obtain abnormal returns.

The start of the war on February 24, 2022, when the Russian forces invaded Ukraine, was followed by high positive abnormal returns of up to 12% in the next few days. The results are particularly strong if multiple factors are used to control for the risk of the defense stocks. Conversely, the authors find a negative impact of the rebellion initiated by the mercenary Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 23, 2023, on the abnormal returns of defense industry stocks on the first trading day after the event.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the defense sector. Furthermore, this is the first study to measure the financial implications of the military coup initiated by the Wagner Group. The findings contribute to a rapidly growing literature on the financial implications of military conflicts around the world.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of terrorist attacks on the volatility and returns of the stock market in Tunisia.

The employed sample comprises 1250 trading day from the Tunisian stock index (Tunindex) and stock closing prices of 64 firms listed on the Tunisian stock market (TSM) from January 2011 to October 2015. The research opts for the general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and exponential generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) models framework in addition to the event study method to further assess the effect of terrorism on the Tunisian equity market.

The baseline results document a substantive impact of terrorism on the returns and volatility of the TSM index. In more details, the findings of the event study method show negative significant effects on mean abnormal returns with different magnitudes over the events dates. The outcomes propose that terrorism profoundly altered the behavior of the stock market and must receive sufficient attention in order to protect the financial market in Tunisia.

Very few evidence is found on the financial effects of terrorism over transition to democracy cases. This paper determines the salient reaction of the stock market to terrorism during democratic transition. The findings of this study shall have relevant implications for stock market participants and policymakers.

This study aims to study the response of the stock market to the announcement of compulsory environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure regulation in the context of the Indian economy – one of the largest emerging economies. The study also examines the role of carbon sensitivity and pre-ESG disclosure.

Daily stock price data of 940 listed companies has been collected for 276 trading days to compute abnormal returns. The current study is based on event study methodology to analyze the announcement effect of disclosure regulations. Furthermore, to check the robustness of results, cross-sectional regression has been applied to correct for potential heterogeneity.

Results of the event study signify that the equity share market has reacted positively and significantly to the mandatory ESG disclosure regulation. Furthermore, the study also confirms the mitigating role of carbon sensitivity and pre-ESG disclosure as carbon nonsensitive (non predisclosure) firms have witnessed a more intense effect of regulation as compared to sensitive (predisclosed) corporations.

Current findings assist managers in understanding investor perception toward nonfinancial disclosures. Corporate managers can use disclosure as a tool to enhance the firm value and reduce information asymmetry by providing relevant information. Furthermore, policymakers can use the findings of present research to disseminate the advantages of adopting ESG disclosure practices thereby improving the transparency and governance among business firms.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to provide empirical evidence on the market response to compulsory ESG disclosure framework in the emerging context of India. Furthermore, considering the infancy stage of ESG research, the present research contributes to the body of knowledge by empirically testing the disclosure theories.

This paper attempts to examine the impact of merger on the stock returns and economic value added (EVA) of acquiring firms to know if the mergers are successful corporate restructuring strategies for the firms.

In total, 108 Indian firms are studied using paired sample t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test for comparing the EVA of acquiring firms in short, medium and long term after merger. The effect of merger announcements on stock returns is analyzed by way of event study. An event window of −20 to +20 is taken and an estimation window of 256 (-276 -20) days is used in the study.

The authors find that mergers lead to significant improvement in the EVA of acquiring firms. However, the increase in financial performance and EVA is witnessed only in long term. The authors did not find any significant impact of merger announcement on the stock returns of acquiring firms.

The study is a first of study's kind, which evaluates both short-term (using event study methodology) and long-term (using EVA) impact of value addition to an acquirer after Merger & Acquisition (M&A). The study contributes to existing literature on the signaling theory of announcement of M&As and synergy gain theory of completed M&As by providing evidence from the context of an emerging market like India.

This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.

The event study technique was used on data from 518 events that occurred in a 30-year period (1987–2016), comprising 167 stock splits and 351 reverse stock splits.

The results revealed the occurrence of abnormal returns around the time the shares began trading stock splits or reverse stock splits at a statistical significance level of 5%. The main conclusion is that stock split and reverse stock split operations represent opportunities for extraordinary gains and may serve as a reference for investment strategies in the Brazilian stock market.

This study innovates by including reverse stock splits, as the existing literature focuses on stock splits, and by testing two distinct “zero” dates that of the ordinary general meeting that approved the share alteration and the “ex” date of the alteration, when the shares were effectively traded, reverse split or split.

This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the Egyptian market.

The paper uses the event study framework to analyze the significance and direction of abnormal returns of the leading index of the Egyptian stock market (EGX30) on and around the devaluation days. It employs both the constant mean model and the market model to estimate the normal returns of the EGX30. Additionally, the paper uses data on two equity indices, one global and one for emerging markets, as benchmarks for normal returns.

The paper finds that the Egyptian stock market experienced significant positive abnormal returns on the devaluation days of the EGP in March and October of 2022, indicating a positive market reaction to the devaluation. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the Egyptian market may not be informationally efficient as significant positive abnormal returns were observed two weeks before and two weeks after the devaluation day, suggesting news leaks and delayed reactions, respectively.

This study is the first to examine the impact of the recent two devaluations of the EGP in 2022 on the Egyptian stock market. It complements existing literature by analyzing the immediate market reaction to two consecutive devaluations in an African country. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the efficiency of the Egyptian market in processing information related to exchange rates.

With the goal of helping consumers bounce back from the financial challenges they faced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many firms developed and announced consumer-targeted resiliency programs (e.g. Walgreens waived delivery fees, Associated Bank allowed deferred mortgage payments). However, there is a paucity of research examining the unique features of these programs, and whether firms' investors (the first external stakeholder group to provide them with feedback regarding their strategies) were receptive to these programs during a period of time in which firms themselves were suffering financially. Drawing on resilience theory and stakeholder theory, the present research incorporates an event study of consumer-targeted resiliency program announcements to understand their financial implications for firms, and to learn whether firms witnessed different financial effects as a result of firm- and program-specific factors.

This study referred to business news publications and newswire services to collect a comprehensive list of consumer-targeted resiliency programs announced by publicly traded U.S. firms during the pandemic. The resulting dataset consisted of 145 announcements made during the period of February–June 2020. An event study was conducted in order to precisely measure the main effect of consumer-targeted resiliency programs on firm value, as manifested through abnormal stock returns. Finally, a moderation analysis (regression) was conducted to uncover whether firm characteristics or specific features of firms' consumer-targeted resiliency programs lead certain firms to witness stronger financial effects than others.

The main effect of consumer-targeted resiliency programs on firm value was found to be positive – a 1.9% increase on average. The moderation analysis finds that non-financial firms were rewarded more positively than financial firms (e.g. banks and credit card companies). In addition, financial aid (i.e. allowing customers to defer their payments to a firm for its products/services, versus a reduction in the price of a product/service or offering it for free or giving cash back to customers) and temporal characteristics (i.e. an offer being framed as limited-time, vs being indefinite or for the foreseeable future) are not found to have a moderating effect.

This theory-driven empirical study uncovers practical implications for managers of firms interested in whether investing in corporate social responsibility during times of crisis is a wise allocation of resources. Any form of financial aid for consumers, regardless of temporal limitations, is received positively by investors.