Search results

This paper aims to examine the contagion effects of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) and US stock markets on seven Eurozone and six non-Eurozone stock markets.

In this paper, a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model popularly known as DCC-GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model given by Engle (2002) is applied to estimate the DCCs across sample markets.

Analyzing the Eurozone crisis period, the empirical results suggest that among GIPSI stock markets, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland appear to be most contagious for Eurozone and non-Eurozone markets. The study finds that France, Belgium, Austria and Germany in Eurozone and UK, Sweden and Denmark in non-Eurozone are strongly hit by the contagion shock.

The findings of the study have significant implications for the concerned regulatory authorities, as it may provide an important direction for further policy research with regard to financial integration in the European Union (EU). From global investors’ perspective, the EU-based diversification strategies seem to be inefficient especially during Eurozone crisis.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the issue of financial contagion of Eurozone crisis for a large basket of stock markets of European countries comprising seven Eurozone and six non-Eurozone markets for the period 2009-2012. The study uses the Markov regime switching model to identify crisis period and utilizes the DCC estimates of DCC-GARCH to examine the patterns of financial contagion. The finding of this study is quite interesting and is different in several ways than existing studies in the literature.

The significant economic weight of the Eurozone in the globe caused the contagion of the Eurozone debt crisis on the emerging markets. The Eurozone debt crisis caused the sudden plummeting of the cross-border bank credit (BC) to India causing a significant impact on bank lending in India. Essentially, the purpose of this study is to find an answer to the question: Did the decline in cross-border cross-credit from Eurozone had an impact on domestic BC in India?

Using the data for the period from 2000 to 2013 sourced from Bank for International Settlements international banking statistics consolidated data sets, the novel specification of the study captures the impact of Eurozone cross-border credit on India by developing two regression frameworks that capture the pre-Euro debt crisis period scenario and post-Euro debt crisis period scenario.

The results offer a very interesting analogy of the behavior of BC and cross-border credit during the pre and post-Eurozone crisis scenarios of analysis. During the pre-Eurozone crisis period, cross-border credit displayed a significant negative relationship with BC indicating that cross-border credit to the Indian firms indirectly benefitted the banks by creating increased demand for domestic BC. The post-Eurozone crisis period witnessed a nexus between cross-border credit and BC during the pre-Eurozone crisis period, which gradually disappeared largely because of the onset of the Eurozone crisis.

This study is a first of its kind in investigating the impact of the Eurozone crisis on an emerging economy like India. This study supports the hypothesis of the existence of the transmission of financial shocks through the balance sheets of international banks. The findings conform to the policy concerns of most of the emerging economies that international banks transmit financial shocks from their home countries. The implication for India and other emerging economies is that international credit growth deserves careful monitoring.

The paper examines the impact of the deteriorating fiscal conditions of Eurozone countries on spillover effects on bank credit margins. It is investigated whether these effects have been reduced after European Central Bank’s (ECB) signaling of pursuing an expansionary, unconventional, monetary policy to address the debt crisis in Eurozone.

A general econometric panel model is applied to investigate spillover effects between Eurozone countries and bank credit margins. In total, three periods are examined: the period before the peak of the global financial crisis and the beginning of the Irish banking crisis, the period during the debt and bank crisis in Eurozone and the period after ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing.

According to empirical results, before the peak of the global financial crisis there was no substantial credit risk transfer from Eurozone sovereigns to banks. During the period of debt and bank crisis in Eurozone, the deterioration of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries had a significant impact on bank Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. After ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing, it does not seem to be any significant relationship between Eurozone sovereigns and bank CDS spreads. These findings reinforce the assessment that ECB's measures were effective, achieving the key objective of normalizing economic conditions and ensuring financial stability in Eurozone.

A question is whether effects can change when the corresponding contraction will lead to a reinstatement of “normal” conditions. Would there be a reversal of risk premium trends in bond markets? Although the answer from casual observations seems to be negative, it is a valid research question to be examined. An interesting issue concerning the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by ECB concerns the issues of moral hazard that they incorporate, something that could not be addressed. Another research perspective could be the use of the beta coefficient to measure the systematic and unsystematic risk of banking sector shares.

The results have strong implications for ECB and European banking regulation. Regulators should mainly pay more attention to the amount and concentration of sovereign debt held by banks. Eurozone financial system could be less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk. It raised the critical question of whether a more strict regulation is needed. Regulators should not intervene if not necessary, but they must prevent the transmission of crises between markets. This will likely bring trust to the developed countries' sovereign debt and the portfolios of the financial institutions, which hold most of this debt will be considered safe as well.

The conclusions provide a safe counterweight in various respects. First, the negative effects and the need to rapidly cease or limit such policies. Second, the financial stability aimed by ECB. Such policies contain the possibility of a subsequent moral hazard related to Member State and bank behavior. However, these contingencies need to be assessed with the benefits resulting from the restoration of financial markets and the disconnection between banking and sovereign credit risk. This leads Eurozone's financial system to become less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk and therefore more safe, helping to restore confidence in the real economy.

Contribution in terms of methodology and conclusions. It offers important conclusions regarding the limitations of yields and volatility of CDS spreads. It examines the spillover effects of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries on banking institutions by extending the existing methodology and introducing new questions focusing on the reaction of CDS market to the ECB monetary policy, the reduction of risk premiums at sovereign and banking level and the gradual reduction of interdependence between them.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Eurozone financial crisis by discussing the experiences of Greece, Ireland and Spain. It particularly examines the influence and actions of the Troika in the management of the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone.

The primary source of information for this study has been the documents of the Greek, Irish and Spanish Governments (often only available in their native language) and the reports of EU bodies and the IMF, supplemented by media coverage, as deemed appropriate. This has been analysed on a comparative basis to contrast the experiences of these three countries.

This study reveals how the Eurozone crisis has impacted on financially weak countries in this currency union. The fiscal conservatism of the Troika (the IMF, the EU and the European Central Bank) has had profound consequences for these economies, which have experienced dramatic cuts in public services.

This study has focused on the experiences of three countries in the Eurozone. There is a case for extending this analysis to other Eurozone countries.

There are two approaches to recession – governments can stimulate demand by infrastructure spending or take the financial conservatism route of reducing public expenditure and public sector borrowing. However, the severity of the crisis undermines the first approach and there are uncertain outcomes with the second approach. This paper shows the effects of adopting financial conservatism as a strategy in this crisis.

The austerity programmes pursued by the governments in this study have led to unemployment, migration of skilled workers, collapse in property markets, failing banks and social unrest.

This study takes an accounting perspective on the Eurozone crisis. This offers a distinctive interpretation of events. This study examines the merits of widely used theories in studies of public sector change namely legitimation and resource dependency theory intertwined with power and offers insights into how meaningful they are in explaining the dramatic influence of austerity programmes in the Eurozone.

This chapter analyzes the rules and institutions that have characterized the European Monetary Union (EMU) during its prolonged crisis, stressing the limits of the strategy pursued by the European authorities. It also examines the issues of current account imbalances, economic growth and the problem of debt, and their interconnections. The main purpose of this chapter is to indicate feasible economic solutions and political arrangements in order to complete the institutional system of the EMU. This requires appropriate reforms of its institutional architecture. But such reforms demand changes in the treaties in order to make the Eurosystem more consistent and endowed of democratic legitimacy, so to have appropriate tools, resources and policies that can contribute to the stability, cohesion and development of the Eurozone.

The Eurozone debt crisis has indeed jeopardized the recovery plans put in place post global crisis by regulators, policymakers, and the sovereigns. Though the crisis is epicentered in the Eurozone, the knock-on effects of the crisis are felt all across the globe. The emerging and developing economies (EDEs) are also expected to post lower growth on account of worsening external environment and a weakening internal demand. This chapter analyzes the causes for sovereign debt crisis, presents the implications of sovereign debt crises, and draws lessons for banking sectors more particularly in the context of emerging markets like that of India.

This chapter investigates the impact of the euro crisis on Asia’s short-term economic outlook. This chapter tries to answer this question by examining both the trade and financial channels of crisis transmission. More specifically, it looks at the effect of euro crisis on Asian exports and growth, contagion from EU financial markets to Asian financial markets, and influence of EU bank lending on credit growth in Asia. The chapter also touches upon Asia’s policy space to assess how well the region is positioned to weather another major external shock. This chapter finds that the impact of euro crisis on developing Asia points to a sizable but manageable short-term impact. Furthermore, our analysis points to a significant effect on the region’s financial systems, especially its banking sector. This chapter informs policymakers of the impact of the euro crisis and advice to continue to keep a close eye on eurozone developments and their ramifications for their economies.

This study aims to research the effects of unemployment wages current account and consumer price index (CPI) on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), which, in the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. However, in this study, it is shown that the considered optimum currency crisis (OCC) model is affected by mobility factors, as the defined theory has not been perfectly realised in the Eurozone.

In this study, Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests are used for supporting the survey for better estimation of the panel cointegration tests, where Pedroni's (1995, 1997) technique is used. The unit root tests are employed, of which the Phillip–Perron and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests (unit root test, Dickey, D. and W. Fuller, 1979) are considered.

It can be concluded that demand shocks will tend to be more asymmetric instead of being symmetric, even though they are in the customs union (CU). However, Polish workers in a given scenario may move to Germany, but because of the rigidity of the labour market and qualification differences between workers, the interregional integration of member countries is reduced, and this reduces the absorption of asymmetric shocks. In Germany, where strong employment protection and rigidity are observed in comparison to Poland, although there has been historical migration and economical collaboration, unfortunately, the integration of the two countries’ economies has not been realised.

Quantitative research on fiscal union and the estimation of its effects is not possible because there is no practical experience of fiscal union throughout the European Union (EU). However, quantitative research is used for estimating the effects of OCA in the Eurozone. Quantitative investigation is particularly focused on the monetary union and single currency and its impact on growth rate. In this study, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and panel cointegration test are employed for estimating the effects of the considered variables.

The Eurozone and the application of a single currency throughout the EU was a considerably difficult task. In addition, the adoption of a single currency was not easy for those member countries that fulfilled the “convergence criteria” (or “Maastricht criteria”) and who joined the Eurozone, because only adoption is not enough; maintenance of those criteria is also required. This study analysed the application of the Eurozone in the light of the OCA of Mundel's theory.

The OCA is important for member countries’ economic relations. However, the application of a single currency is not easy and needs to be controlled and regulated to ensure best practises throughout the Eurozone. Monetary integration is not a simple process, and Eurozone countries’ financial difficulties affect each other’s markets’ indifferent aspects. Particularly in any market recession, demand shocks tend to have different effects. Furthermore, in comparison to the monetary union, the CU has a considerable impact on trade enlargement.

In this study, the effects of the independent variables “wages, unemployment, CPI and capital flow” on the dependent variable “RGDP” is considered, which, in the OCA theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. In application, it was turned into crisis because of inadequate monetary and fiscal application. In this paper OCA is questioned in the light of the Eurozone for bringing better understanding to these difficulties. The considered model and estimations are used for evaluating to create sustainable monetary integration for economic growth.

In a globalised economy, the EU, being self-confident, could shape international standards by defending and promoting its own socioeconomic model. Social democratic parties rhetorically confess the need for a ‘European social model’, but meanings and ways to achieve it differ largely. In a comparative case study on the programmatic positioning of the German Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands and the Spanish Partido Socialista Obrero Español, the parties' perspectives on the integration mode and their handling of the Economic and Monetary Union framework and its crisis over the last decade are traced. Although similar paths from neoliberal convictions of the ‘third way’ to a positive integration process in a fiscal union setting are found, the scope and levels vary, illustrating the abilities of both parties to meet new transnational challenges. The crisis of the Eurozone was a definitive turning point for the positioning of the Social Democrats in Spain in favour of more political and fiscal integration. In contrast, their German comrades already advocated increased social integration of the EU since 2005 but remained very cautious regarding reforms of the economic framework established by the Eurozone.

Acknowledging the important role of the media in shaping a European public sphere, the purpose of this paper is to explore how the recent economic crisis is discursively construed in the context of the British media discourse. It investigates discursive constructions of the economic crisis in two political magazines of different ideological positioning by placing emphasis on the economic crisis in Greece, the “weak link” of the Eurozone.

The study draws on systemic functional linguistics which views language as social semiotic and conducts a transitivity analysis of a corpus consisting of 59 articles (a total of 61,820 words) from two weekly British political magazines, one of conservative and one of centre-left political position. The analysis is assisted by Wordsmith 6.0 concordance corpus tool.

It is argued that the articles of the conservative magazine construe the crisis as primarily local and financial, discussing its effects on the British economy. On the other hand, the articles of the centre-left magazine view the crisis as a systemic one derived from and, at the same time, affecting European Union policies and stress its political and economic implications in all of Eurozone.

The findings of the study contribute to the body of studies which investigate the role of language in the construction of the economic crisis and also adds to the on-going discussion regarding the development of a European public sphere as part of the wider European Project and the process of European integration.