Search results

Recently the world economy was confronted to the worst financial crisis since the great depression. This unprecedented crisis started in mid-2007 had a huge impact on the European government bond market. But what are the main drivers of this “perfect storm” that since 2009 affects EU government bond market as well? To answer this question, we propose an empirical study of the determinants of the sovereign bond spreads of EU countries with respect to Germany during the period 2003–2010. Technically, we address two main questions. First, we ask what share of the change in sovereign bond spreads is explained by changes in the fundamentals, liquidity, and market risks. Second, we distinguish between EU member states within and outside the Euro area and question whether long-term determinants of spreads affect EU members uniformly. To these ends, we employ panel data techniques in a regression model where spreads to Germany (with virtually no default risk) are explained by set of traditional variables and a number of policy variables. Results reveal that large fiscal deficits and public debt as well as political risks and to a lesser extent the liquidity are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced European economies.

Large French banks have restructured over the last two decades responding to the evolution of the French banking system, European union integration, and globalization. Using financial time‐series and cross‐sectional data of three major French banks (Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and Credit Lyonnais) from 1993 to 1999, this paper analyzes their performance. Our findings indicate that the French banks’ performance (return on equity capital ratio) was influenced negatively by total assets, the efficiency ratio, the Tier‐1 capital ratio, and loan loss provisions, but not at all influenced by non‐interest income (contrary to our hypothesis). When the French banks were compared their global counterparts, common factors explaining the performance of these banks are efficiency and total assets in at least 3 of the 6 countries.

Energy and environmental concerns have gained a significant role in public policy agenda as well as in energy economics literature. As policies often rely on imprecise information on data and goals, fuzzy goal programming (FGP) modeling is a relevant choice to evaluate multi-criteria sustainability. This technique is suitable for the analysis of the Europe 2020 strategy plan dealing with several possibly conflicting objectives in economy, environment, energy and employment. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The paper presents a FGP model for sustainable implementations for all European Union (EU) countries with respect to Europe 2020 policy goals and provides insights for decision makers to better satisfy conflicting criteria by suggesting optimal allocations of workers in several economic sectors.

The analysis shows an overall great performance of European Union countries in the environmental and social criteria and outlines the needs for significant additional policy measures to reduce energy consumption while increasing the economic output. Comparing the performance of countries within the European Union between those who adopted the euro and those who maintained national currencies shows that Euro countries tend to perform worse in terms of Europe 2020 sustainability, opening opportunities for further research to better investigate on the causes and determinants of these differences.

The paper presents a conceptual model of sustainable development that improves understanding of the concept and reconciles highly competing policy objectives in a common framework. Applying this model to all European Union countries offers both comparison and policy recommendations at a large new scale.

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence hypothesis of House Price Index (HPI) in the case of 18 major Indian cities for the period 2014–2019.

To attain the authors main goal, this study applies a clustering algorithm advanced by Phillips and Sul. This test creates a club of convergence based on the growth of the cities in terms of HPI.

The study findings show the existence of two convergence clubs and one non-convergent group. Club 1 includes the cities with high HPI growth, whereas club 2 comprises of cities with least HPI growth. Cities belonging to the non-convergent group are neither converging nor diverging.

This study findings will benefit home buyers, sellers, investors, regulators and policymakers interested in the dynamic interlinkages of house price (HP) among Indian cities.

The majority of the studies are conducted in the case of China at the province or city levels. Furthermore, in the case of India, none of the studies has investigated the HP club convergence across Indian cities. Therefore, the present study fills this research gap by examining the HP club convergence across Indian cities.

Hi‐tech communications transform the market‐place, demographics alter consumer demands, global and regional developments recast world dynamics. The USA is enjoying a “Goldilocks economy” – neither too hot, nor too cold – and global trade has tripled over the past twenty years. The factors driving this sustained growth are many, technological, demographic as well as social and behavioural. This article examines the trends driving the economy, especially the impact of information and communications technologies and globalization on business activity with special emphasis on the banking and finance sector.

A hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates over the past few years an aberration that would soon be reversed, or was it part of the “new normal” that would persist for some time? Second, how would periphery long rates evolve relative to core rates? That is—the spread between long rates in the likes of Greece, Spain, and Ireland and those in Germany—how would they evolve over the next year? Was the dramatic divergence in euro zone long rates likely to persist, or would the coming year see a continuation of the modest reconvergence that has occurred since mid–2012? He knew many factors influenced long-term interest rates; he would have to use his entire toolkit to address this issue. The evidence was in no way clear-cut. Some factors pointed toward lower German rates, some toward higher, some toward a widening of euro zone spreads (even a dissolution of the euro zone as we know it?), and some toward reconvergence.

In asset management, what if clients want to purchase protection from risk factors, under the form of variance risk premia. This paper aims to address this topic by developing a portfolio optimization framework based on the criterion of the minimum variance risk premium (VRP) for any investor selecting stocks with an expected target return while minimizing the risk aversion associated to the portfolio according to “good” and “bad” times.

To accomplish this portfolio selection problem, the authors compute variance risk-premium as the difference from high-frequencies' realized volatility and options' implied volatility stemming from 19 stock markets, estimate a 2-state Markov-switching model on the variance risk-premia and optimize variance risk-premia portfolios across non-overlapping regions. The period goes from March 16, 2011, to March 28, 2018.

The authors find that optimized portfolios based on variance-covariance matrices stemming from VRP do not consistently outperform the benchmark based on daily returns. Several robustness checks are investigated by minimizing historical, realized or implicit variances, with/without regime switching. In a boundary case, accounting for the realized variance risk factor in portfolio decisions can be seen as a promising alternative from a portfolio performance perspective.

As a new management “style”, the realized volatility approach can, therefore, bring incremental value to construct the conditional covariance matrix estimates.

The authors assess the portfolio performance determined by the variance-covariance matrices that are derived by four models: “naive” (Markowitz returns benchmark), non-switching VRP, maximum likelihood regime-switching VRP and Bayesian regime switching VRP. The authors examine the best return-risk combination through the calculation of the Sharpe ratio. They also assess another different portfolio strategy: the risk parity approach.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate credit rationing across firms in euro zone countries, as it relates to its own sovereign credit ratings.

The authors utilize firm-level data from the Survey on Access to Finance of Enterprises for the period 2009-2013 conducted by the European Central Bank.

A negative association between the rating of sovereign creditworthiness and credit rationing is identified, while credit rationing varies substantially even among countries with the highest quality of sovereign bonds. Credit rationing is lower in sovereigns with high-quality ratings and higher in sovereigns near default. These results remain intact when fundamental firm characteristics (e.g. firm’s age and size, sector of economic activity, financial situation, etc.) are taken into consideration. This indicates that the interconnection of sovereign debt risk with domestic credit market outcomes is robust.

The present study contributes to the relevant literature by performing a detailed analysis of credit rationing for euro zone SMEs and by exploring the link between sovereign credit rating and credit rationing during the sovereign debt crisis period.

Monetary unification within Europe appears to be on target. Eleven nations pegged their currency to the euro in 1999. The euro‐zone is experiencing varying levels of growth related to GDP. Balancing policy for 11 nations will be difficult. The true test will take place when asymmetric shocks hit one or several of the nations and unemployment rises to unmanageable levels forcing the European Union and European Central Bank to make tough decisions. Cultural issues and national identities are ever present. Optimum currency areas and comparative advantage discussed. The paper is divided into four major sections – reasons for unification, benefits, issues and conclusion.