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In this paper the techniques of zero-non-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector autoregressive modelling are utilized to examine two issues associated with the European single currency – the euro. First, “Granger causality” is employed to examine the causal linkages between the euro exchange rate, the euro area money supply and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the euro area. Second, we examine the hypothesis that the euro has become a major influence on international stock markets by testing for the causal relationships between movements in the euro exchange rate, the U.K. pound exchange rate and the London stock market index.

On January 1, 1999, the euro became the common currency of the 11 Member States of the European Union (EU) – Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain, to be joined by Greece in 2000. The 12 were joined by Slovenia on January 1, 2007, Malta and Cyprus on January 1, 2008, and Slovakia on January 1, 2009. Estonia was scheduled to be the 17th member of the Eurozone on January 1, 2011, and was admitted to the Eurozone membership in September 2010. Following Slovenia and Slovakia, Estonia is the third former Communist state to join the Euro regime. It is, however, the first former Soviet republic to earn this honor. The remaining East European countries, who were admitted to EU membership by the Treaty of Rome in 2004, will become members of the Eurozone after a process of scrutiny. Each must satisfy the terms of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, three of the original EU-15 countries, continue to be outside the Eurozone. However, Sweden and Denmark have limited exchange rate fluctuations with the euro. The United Kingdom has a different story. Its economic structure and its relatively small share of world GDP have become an issue. The declining share of the United Kingdom's pound sterling as an international reserve currency warrants much critical evaluation.

Purpose: Investors and portfolio managers can earn profitably when they correctly predict when stock prices will go up or down. For this reason, it is crucial to know the effect levels of the factors that affect stock prices. In addition to macroeconomic factors, the psychological behavior of investors also affects stock prices. Therefore, the study aims to reveal the different sensitivity levels of the stock index against macroeconomic and psychological factors.

Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study, dollar rate (USD), euro rate (EURO), time deposit interest rate (IR), gold price (GOLD), industrial production index (IPI), and consumer price index (CPI) (inflation (INF)) were used as macroeconomic factors, while Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and VIX Fear Index (VIX) were used as psychological factors. In addition, the BIST-100 index, which is listed in Borsa Istanbul, was used as the stock index. The sensitivity of the stock index to macroeconomic and psychological factors was investigated using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) method using data from January 2012 to October 2020.

Findings: In the analyses performed using the MARS method, the coefficients of INF, USD, EURO, IR, CCI, and VIX Index were found to be statistically significant and effective on the stock index. Among these variables, INF has the highest effect on stocks. It is followed by USD, IR, EURO, CCI, and VIX. GOLD and IPI variables did not show statistical significance in the model. The most important difference of the MARS model from other regressions is that each factor’s effect on the stock index is analyzed by separating it according to the value of the factor. According to the results obtained from the MARS model: (1) it has been determined that USD, EURO, IR, and CPI have both positive and negative effects on the stock market index and (2) CCI and VIX have been found to have negative effects on stocks. These results provide essential information about how investors who plan to invest in the stock index should take into consideration different macroeconomic and psychological values.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature as it is one of the first studies to examine the effects of factors affecting the stock index by decomposing it according to the values it takes. Also, this study provides additional information by listing the factors affecting the stock index in order of importance. These results will help investors, portfolio managers, company executives, and policy-makers understand the stock markets.

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

The aim of this study is to examine whether China’s exchange rate follows an equilibrium process and consequently to answer the question of whether or not China’s international competitiveness fluctuates in consistency with equilibrium.

The theoretical background of the paper relies on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis, while the econometric methodology is mainly based on a nonlinear two-regime Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) unit root test.

The main finding is that China’s price competitiveness was not constantly following a disequilibrium process. The two-regime threshold model shows that PPP equilibrium was confirmed in periods of relatively high – compared to the estimated threshold – rate of real yuan appreciation. Moreover, it is implied that the fixed exchange rate regime cannot ensure external balance since it can neither establish equilibrium in the foreign exchange market, nor confirm that China’s international competitiveness adjustment follows an equilibrium process.

The results do not imply that China acts as a currency manipulator. However, a main policy implication of the paper is that China should continue appreciating the yuan to establish external balance.

This paper is the first which accounts for a nonlinear two-regime process toward a threshold, which is defined to be the rate of change in China’s international competitiveness. Consequently, the paper draws attention to the role of China’s international competiveness in accepting the PPP hypothesis.

This chapter conducts an event study of 30 quantitative easing (QE) announcements made by 21 central banks on daily government bond yields and bilateral US dollar exchange rates in March and April 2020, in the midst of the global financial turmoil triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak. The chapter also investigates the transmission of innovations to long-term interest rates in a standard GVAR model estimated with quarterly pre-COVID-19 data. The authors find that QE has not lost effectiveness in advanced economies and that its international transmission is consistent with the working of long-run uncovered interest rate parity and a large dollar shortage shock during the COVID-19 period. In emerging markets, the QE impact on bond yields is much stronger and its transmission to exchange rates is qualitatively different than in advanced economies. The GVAR evidence that the authors report illustrates the Fed’s pivotal role in the global transmission of long-term interest rate shocks, but also the ample scope for country-specific interventions to affect local financial market conditions, even after controlling for common factors and spillovers from other countries. The GVAR evidence also shows that QE interventions can have sizable real effects on output driven by a very persistent impact on long-term interest rates.

The growth in euro-denominated bond debt issued by emerging market sovereigns picked up considerably after the Asian currency crises. However, while many emerging market governments now have outstanding euro-denominated issues, the market for this debt remains considerably smaller and less liquid than its US dollar counterpart. This has implications for both investors and sovereigns as they try to balance liquidity and cost of capital considerations against portfolio diversification and exchange rate movements. Broadly speaking, spreads on emerging market bonds across countries tend to move in tandem over time. This chapter takes an introductory look at the market for euro-denominated sovereign debt, and investigates the degree to which spreads on euro-denominated emerging market sovereign debt react to common forces. Following a similar analysis of the US dollar market in McGuire and Schrijvers (2003) (hereafter MS2003), we use principal factor analysis to determine the number of common factors that drive movements in spreads, and then seek to assign meaning to these factors through simple correlations with economic variables.

The aim of this chapter is to describe the purpose of the introduction of the exchange rate commitment by the Czech National Bank (CNB) in the period from November 2013 to April 2017 and its effects on the real economy. The main reason for introducing the exchange rate commitment was concern about the possibility of a prolonged deflationary period in Czechia. Given that the standard monetary policy instruments had already been exhausted on easing the monetary policy conditions, the CNB Bank Board opted for an exchange rate commitment. The secondary objective of the exchange rate commitment was to boost the economy through the positive effect of a weaker koruna on exports. Next, we focus in more detail on the effect of the exchange rate commitment in the economy and the course of the foreign exchange interventions. Overall, we can summarize that the CNB's foreign exchange interventions were an extraordinary monetary policy instrument – in a market economy with inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate – used in extraordinary times.