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1 – 10 of 271Marco Gallegati and James B. Ramsey
In this chapter we perform a Monte Carlo simulation study of the errors-in-variables model examined in Ramsey, Gallegati, Gallegati, and Semmler (2010) by using a wavelet…
Abstract
In this chapter we perform a Monte Carlo simulation study of the errors-in-variables model examined in Ramsey, Gallegati, Gallegati, and Semmler (2010) by using a wavelet multiresolution approximation approach. Differently from previous studies applying wavelets to errors-in-variables problem, we use a sequence of multiresolution approximations of the variable measured with error ranging from finer to coarser scales. Our results indicate that multiscale approximations to the variable observed with error based on the coarser scales provide an unbiased asymptotically efficient estimator that also possess good finite sample properties.
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The different types of estimators of rational expectations modelsare surveyed. A key feature is that the model′s solution has to be takeninto account when it is estimated. The two…
Abstract
The different types of estimators of rational expectations models are surveyed. A key feature is that the model′s solution has to be taken into account when it is estimated. The two ways of doing this, the substitution and errors‐in‐variables methods, give rise to different estimators. In the former case, a generalised least‐squares or maximum‐likelihood type estimator generally gives consistent and efficient estimates. In the latter case, a generalised instrumental variable (GIV) type estimator is needed. Because the substitution method involves more complicated restrictions and because it resolves the solution indeterminacy in a more arbitary fashion, when there are forward‐looking expectations, the errors‐in‐variables solution with the GIV estimator is the recommended combination.
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In capital markets research, analysts’ consensus forecasts are widely used as a proxy for unobservable market earnings expectation. However, they measure the market earnings…
Abstract
Purpose
In capital markets research, analysts’ consensus forecasts are widely used as a proxy for unobservable market earnings expectation. However, they measure the market earnings expectation with error that may vary cross-sectionally, as the market does not consistently rely on analysts’ consensus forecasts to form earnings expectation (Walther, 1997). Based on this notion, this paper aims to relate the prediction of future stock returns to the cross-sectional variation of the error in measuring market earnings expectation embedded in analysts’ consensus forecasts.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses empirical analyses based on stock returns and annual analysts’ consensus forecasts.
Findings
Based on the analytical work by Abarbanell et al. (1995), this study reports that when the measurement error in annual analysts’ consensus forecasts is the smallest, forward earnings-to-price ratio (constructed with annual analysts’ consensus forecasts) best explains future stock returns, and the forward earnings-to-price ratio-based investment strategy is the most profitable.
Originality/value
Findings of this study are useful to capital markets research that relies on the market earnings expectation and to practitioners seeking more profitable investment strategies.
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This paper examines the hypotheses that the length and the depth of the Great Depression were a result of sticky prices or sticky nominal wages using panel data for industrialized…
Abstract
This paper examines the hypotheses that the length and the depth of the Great Depression were a result of sticky prices or sticky nominal wages using panel data for industrialized and semi-industrialized countries. The results show that price stickiness, particularly, and wage stickiness were key propagating factors during the first years of the Depression. It is found that prices adjusted slowly to wages, particularly in manufacturing. Manufacturing wages are also found to adjust relatively slowly to innovations in prices, but unemployment exerted strong downward pressure on wage growth.
Identification in a regression discontinuity (RD) design hinges on the discontinuity in the probability of treatment when a covariate (assignment variable) exceeds a known…
Abstract
Identification in a regression discontinuity (RD) design hinges on the discontinuity in the probability of treatment when a covariate (assignment variable) exceeds a known threshold. If the assignment variable is measured with error, however, the discontinuity in the relationship between the probability of treatment and the observed mismeasured assignment variable may disappear. Therefore, the presence of measurement error in the assignment variable poses a challenge to treatment effect identification. This chapter provides sufficient conditions to identify the RD treatment effect using the mismeasured assignment variable, the treatment status and the outcome variable. We prove identification separately for discrete and continuous assignment variables and study the properties of various estimation procedures. We illustrate the proposed methods in an empirical application, where we estimate Medicaid takeup and its crowdout effect on private health insurance coverage.
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Mostafa Monzur Hasan and Adrian (Wai Kong) Cheung
This paper aims to investigate how organization capital influences different forms of corporate risk. It also explores how the relationship between organization capital and risks…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate how organization capital influences different forms of corporate risk. It also explores how the relationship between organization capital and risks varies in the cross-section of firms.
Design/methodology/approach
To test the hypothesis, this study employs the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model using a large sample of the United States (US) data over the 1981–2019 period. It also uses an instrumental variable approach and an errors-in-variables panel regression approach to mitigate endogeneity problems.
Findings
The empirical results show that organization capital is positively related to both idiosyncratic risk and total risk but negatively related to systematic risk. The cross-sectional analysis shows that the positive relationship between organization capital and idiosyncratic risk is significantly more pronounced for the subsample of firms with high information asymmetry and human capital. Moreover, the negative relationship between organization capital and systematic risk is significantly more pronounced for firms with greater efficiency and firms facing higher industry- and economy-wide risks.
Practical implications
The findings have important implications for investors and policymakers. For example, since organization capital increases idiosyncratic risk and total risk but reduces systematic risk, investors should take organization capital into account in portfolio formation and risk management. Moreover, the findings lend support to the argument on the recognition of intangible assets in financial statements. In particular, the study suggests that standard-setting bodies should consider corporate reporting frameworks to incorporate the disclosure of intangible assets into financial statements, particularly given the recent surge of corporate intangible assets and their critical impact on corporate risks.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to adopt a large sample to provide systematic evidence on the relationship between organization capital and a wide range of risks at the firm level. The authors show that the effect of organization capital on firm risks differs remarkably depending on the kind of firm risk a particular risk measure captures. This study thus makes an original contribution to resolving competing views on the effect of organization capital on firm risks.
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Lihui Geng, Tao Zhang, Deyun Xiao and Jingyan Song
The purpose of this paper is to propose an identification algorithm to obtain generalized attitude model (GAM) of satellites in on‐orbit environment, which includes missing…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose an identification algorithm to obtain generalized attitude model (GAM) of satellites in on‐orbit environment, which includes missing attitude data and multi‐noise. The identified GAM and noise model are the basis of attitude control and state estimation on‐orbit.
Design/methodology/approach
To cope with noises contaminating both input and output of attitude model, the errors‐in‐variables model is transformed into a traditional Box‐Jenkins model according to the attitude control loop. The wavelet denoising (WD) technique is helpful to predict the missing output data using the identified GAM.
Findings
By the numerical simulation, it is verified that the proposal accompanied with WD has a faster prediction capability than that of the algorithm without WD. As a result, the proposed approach is suitable to attitude model identification of on‐orbit satellites.
Originality/value
This identification algorithm can deal with two kinds of on‐orbit conditions and has a fast parameter convergent rate. Therefore, it has a practical application value in on‐orbit environment.
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Torbjörn Jansson and Thomas Heckelei
Estimating parameters of constrained optimization models in a consistent way requires a different set of methods than what is available in a typical econometric toolkit. We…
Abstract
Estimating parameters of constrained optimization models in a consistent way requires a different set of methods than what is available in a typical econometric toolkit. We identify three complications likely to arise in this context, and suggest solutions to those complications: (i) the bi-level programming character, (ii) ill-posedness, and (iii) derivation of estimator properties. The solutions suggested involve a combination of numerical techniques and utilization of out-of-sample information through Bayesian techniques. The proposed framework is also suitable for typical empirical problems arising in trade analysis such as the estimation of trade equilibrium models and data balancing exercises.
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Uwe Hassler and Vladimir Kuzin
We study the effect of errors-in-variables [EV] on cointegration tests and cointegrating regressions. It turns out that the rate of convergence of static ordinary least squares…
Abstract
We study the effect of errors-in-variables [EV] on cointegration tests and cointegrating regressions. It turns out that the rate of convergence of static ordinary least squares [OLS] estimators is not affected by EV, whereas the limiting distribution does change. However, procedures accounting for short-run dynamics correct for EV at the same time and hence are robust to measurement errors. This is established asymptotically, and the relevance of our findings for finite samples is confirmed through computer experiments. Although our analysis is restricted to selected procedures, we indicate how our results will extend to related statistical techniques.