Search results

The purpose of this research is to determine whether the trading of equity index futures contracts on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) results in an increase in the volatility of the underlying spot indices. Since equity index futures contracts were first listed in the USA in 1975, various studies have been undertaken to determine whether the volatility of shares in the underlying indices increases as a result of the trading of such futures contracts. These studies have lead to the development of two schools of thought: [a] Trading activity in equity index futures contracts leads to an increase in the volatility of index shares. [b] Trading activity in equity index futures contracts does not lead to an increase in the volatility of the index shares and could in fact lead to greater stability in equity markets. Although some evidence of higher volatility in expiration periods was found, volatility in the expiration periods was not consistently higher than in the corresponding pre‐expiration period.

The purpose of this paper is to assess how much difference it makes for US firms to use the two‐factor ICAPM to estimate their cost of equity instead of a single‐factor CAPM.

For a large sample of US companies, the authors compare the empirical cost of equity estimates of a two‐factor international CAPM with those of the single‐factor domestic CAPM and the single‐factor global CAPM.

The authors find that the cost of equity estimates of the two‐factor ICAPM are reasonably close to those of either single‐factor model for US firms with low‐to‐moderate foreign exchange exposure; and second, perhaps surprisingly, for US firms with extreme foreign exchange exposure, that the cost of equity estimates of the two‐factor ICAPM tend to be very close to those of the domestic CAPM, and even closer than to those of the single‐factor global CAPM.

The paper's findings might prove useful to academic researchers wanting to resolve the seemingly contradictory empirical results on the pricing of FX risk.

The findings will hopefully help managers decide whether they should go to the trouble of estimating a US firm's cost of equity with the two‐factor international CAPM instead of a traditional single‐factor CAPM.

The paper extends the existing literature by focusing on the two‐factor ICAPM, and finds some new and surprising empirical results.

The purpose of this paper is to study performance and market timing ability of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs).

The authors use classical regression‐based framework and their multi‐index, multifactor, and conditional extensions to jointly detect asset selectivity and market timing ability of equity REITs and their subcategories. These results are then validated by a nonparametric test.

It is found that equity REITs in aggregate have some housing market timing ability. Various equity REIT subcategories perform differently: office REITs can discover underpriced properties, while retail, industrial, and office REITs have poor timing ability. Nonparametric tests confirm that equity REITs do not have ability to predict real estate market movements.

Research in REIT performance evaluation is still limited to the asset selectivity aspect. This paper intends to fill this gap by providing empirical evidence of market timing ability of equity REITs using an array of parametric and nonparametric methods.

There is ample evidence that financial market development leads to economic growth. If improving labor rights can be shown to positively influence equity markets, then that, in turn, will lead to economic growth. The finance literature has examined the impact of a broader metric, namely, the Economic Freedom Index, on equity returns worldwide, and the evidence is mixed. This study focuses on one dimension of economic freedom: labor rights. Specifically, the study analyzes the impact of labor rights on national equity market indexes using the Labor Rights Index developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Fraser Institute (FI). Using panel regression analysis for 49 countries (for the OECD Index) and 76 countries (for the FI Index) over the period 1985–2014, the study finds that changes in labor rights have a statistically significant positive impact on equity returns, after controlling for business-cycle effects and time-fixed effects. The study also finds significant differences in the labor–rights–equity returns relationship between developed and less developed economies.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate contagion between real estate investment trusts (REITs) within and across three geographical regions: North America, Europe and Asia‐Pacific. The paper also examines excess comovement between the considered national REIT markets on the one hand, and broad equity indices on the other. In particular, the authors are interested in contagion between the considered markets during the 2007‐2009 GFC period in comparison to the entire 2004‐2011 sample period.

Using an international factor pricing framework similar to Bekaert, Harvey and Ng, the paper defines contagion as excess comovement between two financial markets, after removing the effects of the underlying economic fundamentals, i.e. risk factors, and time‐changing volatility. Controlling for economic factors is important for distinguishing between pure contagion and information spillovers, which may transmit through existing economic channels. The authors then analyse excess correlations between the derived standardized residuals, for REITS and equity markets in order to investigate excess comovement between the indices during the whole sample and GFC period.

The paper finds no evidence of excess comovement between the considered REIT and equity indices during non‐crisis sample intervals. However, the paper finds contagion between several national REITs and regional or global equity markets during the GFC period. The paper reports statistically significant excess correlations between national REITs and regional and world real estate markets during the entire sample period, while there is only limited evidence to suggest that the correlation amongst REIT markets has increased during the GFC period. The paper concludes that a similar degree of dependence persisted among national REIT markets over the crisis and non‐crisis sample periods for most markets.

Despite the ongoing debate on contagion in financial markets, there is only a small body of literature investigating contagion specifically for property or real estate markets. This is even more surprising, since the GFC originated from a subprime mortgage crisis and was, therefore, heavily related to real estate. The paper extends the literature by testing for contagion between REITs considering eleven national markets across three geographical regions. In contrast, the existing literature is typically constrained to a significantly smaller number of markets. The paper also explicitly takes into account the impact of the recent GFC, and tests for contagion over this period.

This study aims to examine the performance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) equity indices in Latin America (LA), evaluating their risk-return characteristics in comparison to conventional benchmark indices.

Using a quantitative empirical approach, the authors analyze ESG equity indices from Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Colombia, employing metrics such as Sharpe, Sortino and Omega ratios to measure risk-adjusted returns. Regression analysis is employed to assess the replicability of ESG indices by benchmark indices. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to explore the potential increase in risk-adjusted returns when ESG equity indices are incorporated into portfolios.

The study addresses critical questions for investors: Can ESG indices outperform their benchmarks? Can these ESG indices be replicated by benchmark counterparts? Do ESG equity indices enhance portfolio diversification? The findings reveal that investing in ESG indices has the potential to enhance risk-adjusted returns and portfolio diversification.

While this study focuses on various LA economies, it’s important to note variations in currency and volatility.

For investors in LA, this study highlights the importance of considering ESG indices as part of their investment strategies. While not all ESG indices outperform conventional ones, some may improve diversification and risk-adjusted performance. Investors should carefully assess market-specific conditions and national factors when making investment decisions.

The primary contribution of this study is its focus on LA countries in the examination of diverse portfolios. The research provides valuable insights into the performance of ESG indices in this region compared to conventional benchmark indices. This approach addresses an important gap in the existing literature and offers a more comprehensive perspective on ESG investing and portfolio diversification.

Se examina el rendimiento de los índices-ESG en América Latina (AL), evaluando sus características de riesgo y retorno en comparación con los índices convencionales.

Utilizando un enfoque cuantitativo, analizamos los índices-ESG de Brasil, México, Chile, Perú y Colombia, empleando ratios de Sharpe, Sortino y Omega para medir los rendimientos ajustados al riesgo. Se utiliza análisis de regresión para evaluar la replicabilidad de los índices-ESG por parte de los índices de referencia. Se realizan simulaciones de Monte-Carlo para explorar el aumento en los rendimientos ajustados al riesgo cuando se incorporan los índices-ESG en las carteras.

El estudio aborda preguntas críticas: ¿Pueden los índices-ESG superar a sus índices de referencia? ¿Pueden estos índices-ESG ser replicados por sus contrapartes de referencia? ¿Mejoran los índices-ESG la diversificación de las carteras? Los hallazgos revelan que la inversión en índices-ESG tiene el potential de mejorar los rendimientos y la diversificación de las carteras de inversión.

Aunque este estudio se centra en diversas economías de AL, es importante tener en cuenta variaciones en moneda y volatilidad.

La principal contribución de este estudio radica en su enfoque en países de AL en el examen de carteras diversas; ofrece valiosos conocimientos sobre el rendimiento de los índices-ESG en esta región en comparación con los índices convencionales.

This paper aims to investigate the behavior of volatility of Islamic equity indices toward fundamental risk factors. It focuses on the degree and structure of sensitivity to commodity price changes, global risk perception and term premium and whether crises and fragility periods have shaped the degree and structure of this sensitivity.

Quantile regression incorporating structural changes and GARCH-class model are used to establish how sensitivities are varying across volatility distribution depending on global events. The data are daily series of return indices, over the period spanning from January 1, 2001 until January 22, 2018.

The results show significant sensitivity to fundamental factors. The sensitivity is identified for different regional indices and intensified across quantiles. Speculation has shaped the structure of sensitivity at normal time, but correction holds at time of crisis. The results reveal that even if they share common features, commodities cannot be considered as homogeneous asset class. Indeed, the exact relationship cannot be observed at normal time in presence of speculation and information delay. However, at time of financial fragility and periods of crisis, the sensitivity is assigned with the plausible sign.

The obtained results present several policy implications as well for academics, portfolio managers and policy-makers. It opens new research paths for academic research, it helps in investment decisions, provides lessons for portfolio diversification, both for price discovery and hedging. The results serve as well to implement effective macroeconomic stabilization policies and even fiscal policies to counteract any inflationary impact of fundamental price changes on investors and Islamic banks.

This paper contributes to empirical literature by dealing with the sensitivity of Islamic equity indices to commodity prices and term premium along with the effect of investor sentiment. It pays attention to the financial stability of Islamic stock markets by investigating the sensitivity at normal time, during fragility periods and periods of crisis. It considers the financialization process of commodity markets and includes the term premium to control for rational expectations on term structure of interest rates and the VIX (Volatility index) as global risk perception to control for safety and risk aversion.

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the extent to which the Malaysia-based equity investors can benefit from diversifying their portfolio into the conventional and Islamic Southeast Asian region and the world’s top ten largest equity indices (China, Japan, Hong Kong, India, the UK, the USA, Canada, France, Germany and Switzerland).

The multivariate GARCH-dynamic conditional correlation is deployed to estimate the time-varying linkages of the selected conventional and Islamic Asian and international stock index returns with the Malaysian stock index returns, covering approximately eight years daily starting from 29 June 2007 to 30 June 2016.

In general, in terms of volatility, the results indicate that both Asian and international Islamic stock indices are more or less volatile than its conventional counterparts. From the correlation analysis, we can see that both the conventional and Islamic MSCI indices of Japan provide more diversification benefits compared to Southeast Asian region, China, Hong Kong and India. Meanwhile, in terms of international portfolio diversification, the results tend to suggest that both the conventional and Islamic MSCI indices of the USA provide more diversification benefits compared to the UK, Canada, France, Germany and Switzerland.

The findings of this paper may have several significant implications for the Malaysia-based equity investors and fund managers who seek for the understanding of return correlations between the Malaysian stock index and the world’s largest stock market indices in order to gain higher risk-adjusted returns through portfolio diversification. With regard to policy implications, the findings on market shocks and the extent of the interdependence of the Malaysian market with cross-border markets may provide some useful insights in formulating effective macroeconomic stabilization policies in the efforts of preventing contagion effect from deteriorating the domestic economy.

This chapter examines dynamic connectedness among emerging Asian equity markets as well as explores their linkages vis-à-vis other major global markets. We find that international equity markets are tightly integrated. Measuring connectedness based on a generalized Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, more than half of all total forecast error variance in equity return and volatility shocks come from other markets as opposed to country own shocks. When examining the degree of connectedness over time, we find that international stock markets have become increasingly connected, with a gentle upward trend since the Asian financial crisis (AFC) but with a rapid burst during the global financial crisis (GFC). Despite the growing importance of Asian emerging markets in the world economy, we find that their influence on advanced economies are still relatively small, with no significant increase over time. During the past decade, advanced markets have been consistently net transmitters of shocks while emerging Asian markets act as net receivers. Based on the nature of equity shock spillovers, we also find that advanced countries are still tightly connected among themselves while intraregional connectedness within Asia remains strong. By investigating whether uncertainty plays an important role in explaining the degree of stock market connectedness, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from the US is an important source of financial shock spillover for the majority of international equity markets. In contrast, US financial market uncertainty as proxied by the VIX index drives equity market spillovers only among advanced economies.

This chapter measures financial integration in 10 industries over 4 different periods. We use two robust measures of integration: (i) the Pukthuanthong and Roll (2009)’s multi-factor R-square and (ii) the Volosovych (2011)’s integration index. Both measures, based on PCA, indicate that the difference between the level of integration over the period 2009–2012 (“Post-Lehman” era) and the level of integration over the period 1994–1998 (“Post-Liberalizations” era) is relatively high. In addition, the level of financial integration across international equity markets decreased during the late 1990s. This suggests that de jure integration does not necessarily improve de facto integration. Overall, our findings give rise to a “diversification benefits-insurance benefits trade-off.”