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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Marcela Villarreal

To provide a new understanding of the AIDS epidemic and its implications in order to improve the responses from governments and the development community.

1707

Abstract

Purpose

To provide a new understanding of the AIDS epidemic and its implications in order to improve the responses from governments and the development community.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper briefly describes the AIDS epidemic as it relates to development and to rural development in particular, and analyses these interactions from a systems perspective, inspired by the viable systems model approach.

Findings

The paper concludes that HIV/AIDS poses a clear threat to the viability of the societies where the prevalence rates exceed a certain threshold (determined by agro‐ecological and other contextual and organisational characteristics). It shows that in order to be effective, the AIDS epidemic needs a systemic response, involving all development sectors and that responses that involve only the health sector cannot address the systemic nature of the damage the epidemic creates, once the prevalence rates go beyond the said threshold.

Practical implications

An understanding that the epidemic may render societies non viable may move decision makers more decisively to action and an understanding of the systemic nature of the response needed may prompt an adequate organisation of this action.

Originality/value

The paper analyses the AIDS epidemic in an innovative way, contributing to the understanding of its dynamics and implications as well as to the means of addressing them. The paper is useful for policy makers, government officials and development planners to be aware of these and to take them into consideration in the design/implementation of policies, programmes and projects. It should also be of value to academics who wish to deepen their understanding of the epidemic.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 35 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2021

Mohammad Ali Abdolhamid, Mir Saman Pishvaee, Reza Aalikhani and Mohammadreza Parsanejad

The purpose of this paper is to develop a system dynamics approach based on Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) model to investigate the coronavirus pandemic and the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a system dynamics approach based on Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered (SEIR) model to investigate the coronavirus pandemic and the impact of therapeutic and preventive interventions on epidemic disaster.

Design/methodology/approach

To model the behavior of COVID-19 disease, a system dynamics model is developed in this paper based on SEIR model. In the proposed model, the impact of people's behavior, contact reduction, isolation of the sick people as well as public quarantine on the spread of diseases is analyzed. In this model, data collected by the Iran Ministry of Health have been used for modeling and verification of the results.

Findings

The results show that besides the intervening policies, early application of them is also of utmost priority and makes a significant difference in the result of the system. Also, if the number of patients with extreme conditions passes available hospital intensive care capacity, the death rate increases dramatically. Intervening policies play an important role in reducing the rate of infection, death and consequently control of pandemic. Also, results show that if proposed policies do not work before the violation of the hospital capacity, the best policy is to increase the hospital’s capacity by adding appropriate equipment.

Research limitations/implications

The authors also had some limitations in the study including the lack of access to precise data regarding the epidemic of coronavirus, as well as accurate statistics of death rate and cases in the onset of the virus due to the lack of diagnostic kits in Iran. These parameters are still part of the problem and can negatively influence the effectiveness of intervening policies introduced in this paper.

Originality/value

The contribution of this paper includes the development of SEIR model by adding more policymaking details and considering the constraint of the hospital and public health capacity in the rate of coronavirus infection and death within a system dynamics modeling framework.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 51 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 November 2021

Shaolong Sun, Fuxin Jiang, Gengzhong Feng, Shouyang Wang and Chengyuan Zhang

The purpose of this study is to provide better service to hotel customers during the COVID-19 era. Specifically, this study focuses on understanding the changes in hotel customer…

3594

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide better service to hotel customers during the COVID-19 era. Specifically, this study focuses on understanding the changes in hotel customer satisfaction during the epidemic and formulating effective marketing strategies to satisfy and attract guests.

Design/methodology/approach

As the first victim of the COVID-19 virus, China’s hotel industry has been profoundly affected and customer satisfaction and needs have also changed. Taking 105,635 hotel reviews obtained from Tripadvisor.com in Beijing and Shanghai as samples, this study explores the changes in consumer satisfaction by using text-mining methods.

Findings

The results suggest that there are significant differences in overall ratings, spatial distribution and ratings of different traveller types before and after the epidemic. Generally, customers have higher “tolerance” and are more inclined to give higher ratings and pay more attention to hotel prevention and control measures to reduce health risks after the COVID-19.

Research limitations/implications

This paper proves the changes in customer satisfaction before and after the COVID-19 at the theoretical level and reveals the changes in customer attention through the topic model and provides a basis for guiding hotel managers to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Practical implications

Empirical findings would provide useful insights into tourism management and improve hotel service quality during the COVID-19 epidemic era.

Originality/value

This research explores the hotel customer satisfaction in the field of hotel management before COVID-19 and after COVID-19, by using text mining to analyse mandarin online reviews. The results of this study will suggest that the hotel industry should continuously adjust its products and services based on the effective information obtained from customer reviews, so as to realize the activation and revitalization of the hotel industry in the epidemic era.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 34 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 March 2023

Lina Zhong and Yingchao Dong

The purpose of this paper is to explore the changes of the scale of urban tourists in mainland China under the impact of COVID-19 and, specifically, the following questions: how…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the changes of the scale of urban tourists in mainland China under the impact of COVID-19 and, specifically, the following questions: how did the scale of domestic tourists change nationwide and in the seven geographic regions? What are the differences in the changes among the seven geographic regions? What are the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial clustering of domestic tourists across the country?

Design/methodology/approach

Using the data of domestic tourist arrivals in 337 cities in mainland China from 2018 to 2021, this research analyzes the absolute differences and relative differences in the scale of domestic tourists nationwide and in seven geographic divisions with the help of indicators such as range analysis, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and explores the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial concentration degree of the spatial scale of domestic tourists nationwide under the influence of the epidemic using kernel density analysis and spatial auto-correlation analysis.

Findings

The absolute differences in all seven geographical divisions continue to increase during 2018–2021. The domestic tourism in southwest China is extremely uneven. Absolute differences in the northwest and northeast regions are relatively small, and the development in attracting domestic tourists is more balanced. Relative differences in southwest China are comparatively large, with the trend of uneven development being obvious. The northeast, northwest and eastern regions of China are small, and the development is more balanced. The popularity of domestic tourism in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, as well as the Yangtze River Delta region, continues to decline and then pick up in 2021. The inland southwest region became a new domestic tourism hot spot in 2021. The size of domestic tourists from 2018 to 2021 in mainland China cities shows a significant positive spatial correlation, and there is a spatial agglomeration phenomenon, but some regional agglomeration types change from 2018 to 2021.

Research limitations/implications

The impact of the epidemic on the number and spatial scale of domestic tourism in China has been clarified, which makes up for the comparison of domestic tourism changes before and after the epidemic. A clear understanding of the changes in the number and spatial scale of domestic tourists in different regions after the epidemic is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in accordance with the actual situation of each province and promotes the internal circulation of Chinese tourism.

Practical implications

This paper tries to clarify the quantitative scale of domestic tourism in different regions after the epidemic, which is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in cities in different regions according to regional characteristics and the actual situation of each province and to promote the healthy operation of the internal circulation of tourism in China. This paper also tries to show the changes of domestic tourism market hot spots, agglomeration conditions changes before and after the outbreak and the clarity of tourists’ preference space changes.

Originality/value

Scale of domestic tourists; Absolute difference; Relative difference; Spatial hot spot distribution; Spatial agglomeration change

目的

本文旨在探寻疫情影响下中国大陆城市游客规模演化规律, 具体而言, 疫情影响下, 全国及七大地理分区的国内游客量规模变化如何?七大地理地区的变化有何差异?以及疫情影响下, 全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度有何变化?

研究设计与方法

利用2018-2021年中国大陆337各城市的国内游客量数据, 借助极差、标准差、变异系数、赫芬达尔指等指标分析全国及七大地理分区国内游客规模的绝对差异和相对差异; 借助核密度分析、空间自相关分析等ArcGIS分析工具, 探寻疫情影响下全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度的变化情况。

研究发现

①绝对差异方面, 七大地理分区的绝对差异均持续增大。西南地区的游客量的绝对差异巨大, 国内游发展极不均衡。西北地区、东北地区绝对差异相对较小, 在吸引国内游客方面发展较为均衡。②相对差异方面, 西南地区的国内游发展相对差异较大, 发展不均衡趋势明显; 东北地区、西北地区、华东地区的国内游发展相对差异较小, 发展较为均衡。③热点区域变化方面, 京津冀地区、长三角地区的国内旅游热度持续下降, 在2021年有所回升; 内陆西南地区在2021年成为新的国内游热点区域。④2018年至2021年城市国内游客量规模均呈现出显著的空间正相关的关系, 存在着空间集聚现象, 但部分区域集聚类型在2018到2021年间发生变化。

研究价值

①理论意义:明晰了疫情对中国国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模的影响, 弥补了当前疫情前后国内旅游业变化对比的研究; 阐明了疫情前后中国城市国内游客空间格局的变化, 拓展了研究情景, 丰富了中国旅游业时空变化的相关研究。②实践意义:明晰了疫后不同地区国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模变化情况, 以及国内旅游市场热点变化和游客空间偏好变化, 有利于各地区城市对症下药, 制定符合各省份实际情况的国内旅游业振兴策略, 促进中国旅游业内循环。

Article
Publication date: 10 February 2022

Ya-Yuan Chang and Ching-Chan Cheng

Consumers prefer to choose restaurants that value hygiene and safety; therefore, appropriate epidemic prevention measures could restore 30% of lost customers and enhance a…

1151

Abstract

Purpose

Consumers prefer to choose restaurants that value hygiene and safety; therefore, appropriate epidemic prevention measures could restore 30% of lost customers and enhance a restaurant’s reputation during infectious disease outbreaks. Providing customers with safe epidemic prevention service quality is an important mission of the restaurant industry during an epidemic. This study aims to construct an epidemic prevention service quality scale for restaurants (REP-SERV scale).

Design/methodology/approach

The REP-SERV scale was constructed through internet big data analytics and qualitative and quantitative research procedures.

Findings

A total of 16 key service factors for restaurant epidemic prevention were extracted through internet big data analytics. The REP-SERV scale contained 28 items in six dimensions, including hygiene, empathy, flexible service, support service, personnel management and body temperature and seating arrangement.

Practical implications

The REP-SERV scale can help many restaurant operators clearly determine the deficiencies and risks of restaurant epidemic prevention services.

Originality/value

The findings can provide references to effectively measure and improve the epidemic prevention service quality in restaurants, thereby providing customers with a comfortable and safe dining environment.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 34 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 May 2021

Xin Feng, Hanshui Zhang, Yue Zhang, Liming Sun, Jiapei Li and Ye Wu

The emergence of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has had a tremendous impact on the world, and the characteristics of its evolution need to be better understood.

Abstract

Purpose

The emergence of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has had a tremendous impact on the world, and the characteristics of its evolution need to be better understood.

Design/methodology/approach

To explore the changes of cases and control them effectively, this paper analyzes and models the fluctuation and dynamic characteristics of the daily growth rate based on the data of newly confirmed cases around the world. Based on the data, the authors identify the inflection points and analyze the causes of the new daily confirmed cases and deaths worldwide.

Findings

The study found that the growth sequence of the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day has a significant cluster of fluctuations. The impact of previous fluctuations in the future is gradually attenuated and shows a relatively gentle long-term downward trend. There are four inflection points in the global time series of new confirmed cases and the number of deaths per day. And these inflection points show the state of an accelerated rise, a slowdown in the rate of decline, a slowdown in the rate of growth and an accelerated decline in turn.

Originality/value

This paper has a certain guiding and innovative significance for the dynamic research of COVID-19 cases in the world.

Article
Publication date: 9 July 2020

Shurui Zhang, Shuo Wang, Lingran Yuan, Xiaoguang Liu and Binlei Gong

This article investigates the mechanism of the direct and indirect effects of epidemics on agricultural production and projects the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural output in…

4880

Abstract

Purpose

This article investigates the mechanism of the direct and indirect effects of epidemics on agricultural production and projects the impact of COVID-19 on agricultural output in China.

Design/methodology/approach

This article first adopts a dynamic panel model and spatial Durbin model to estimate the direct and indirect effects, followed by a growth accounting method to identify the channels by which epidemics affect agriculture; finally, it projects the overall impact of COVID-19 on agriculture.

Findings

The incidence rate of epidemics in a province has a negative impact on that province's own agricultural productivity, but the increase in the input factors (land, fertilizer and machinery) can make up for the loss and thus lead to insignificant direct effects. However, this “input-offset-productivity” mechanism fails to radiate to the surrounding provinces and therefore leads to significant indirect/spillover effects. It is projected that COVID-19 will lower China's agricultural growth rate by 0.4%–2.0% in 2020 under different scenarios.

Research limitations/implications

It is crucial to establish a timely disclosure and sharing system of epidemic information across provinces, improve the support and resilience of agricultural production in the short run and accelerate the process of agricultural modernization in the long run.

Originality/value

Considering the infectivity of epidemics, this article evaluates the mechanism of the direct and indirect effects by introducing a spatial dynamic model into the growth accounting framework. Moreover, besides the impact on input portfolio and productivity, this article also investigates whether epidemics reshape agricultural production processes due to panic effects and control measures.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 October 2022

Xin Feng, Yue Zhang, Linjie Tong and Huan Yu

This paper aims to straighten out the research progress in the field of maker education, summarize the research hotspots and frontiers of maker education at home and abroad and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to straighten out the research progress in the field of maker education, summarize the research hotspots and frontiers of maker education at home and abroad and provide path optimization suggestions for the research and development of this field.

Design/methodology/approach

In total, 751 pieces of domestic and the foreign maker education research literature from 2014 to 2021 are retrieved and screened, and literature analysis methods such as keyword analysis and clustering map analysis are used to quantitatively analyze the quantity distribution, published journals, core authors, research institutions and subject keywords of the maker education literature.

Findings

It is found that research in this field is still in the development stage, but the pandemic has severely inhibited maker education and related research. Frontiers at home and abroad have begun to pay attention to the impact of humanistic care on maker education. Strengthening the dialog between multidisciplinary theories requires cross-disciplinary research. Regional and cross-field cooperation and fully grasping the actual situation and constraints of the development of maker education are the cornerstones of bold innovation in maker education research.

Originality/value

This paper uses bibliometric analysis to reveal the severe challenges to the development of maker education due to the normalization of the epidemic. By excavating the research hotspots and research frontiers in this field, it fills the gap that the current research in the field of maker education has not yet formed a complete theoretical framework and evaluation system.

Details

Library Hi Tech, vol. 42 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-8831

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 October 2020

Gopi Battineni, Nalini Chintalapudi and Francesco Amenta

After the identification of a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at Wuhan, China, a pandemic was widely spread worldwide. In Italy, about 240,000…

2221

Abstract

Purpose

After the identification of a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at Wuhan, China, a pandemic was widely spread worldwide. In Italy, about 240,000 people were infected because of this virus including 34,721 deaths until the end of June 2020. To control this new pandemic, epidemiologists recommend the enforcement of serious mitigation measures like country lockdown, contact tracing or testing, social distancing and self-isolation.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents the most popular epidemic model of susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R) collectively called SEIR to understand the virus spreading among the Italian population.

Findings

Developed SEIR model explains the infection growth across Italy and presents epidemic rates after and before country lockdown. The results demonstrated that follow-up of strict measures such that country lockdown along with high testing is making Italy practically a pandemic-free country.

Originality/value

These models largely help to estimate and understand how an infectious agent spreads in a particular country and how individual factors can affect the dynamics. Further studies like classical SEIR modeling can improve the quality of data and implementation of this modeling could represent a novelty of epidemic models.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 March 2015

Kuan Yang, Ermei Wang, Yinggao Zhou and Kai Zhou

The purpose of this paper is to use analytical method and optimization tools to suggest time-optimal vaccination program for a basic SIR epidemic model with mass action contact…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use analytical method and optimization tools to suggest time-optimal vaccination program for a basic SIR epidemic model with mass action contact rate when supply is limited.

Design/methodology/approach

The Lagrange Multiplier Method and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle are used to explore optimal control strategy and obtain analytical solution for the control system to minimize the total cost of disease with boundary constraint. The numerical simulation is done with Matlab using the sequential linear programming method to illustrate the impact of parameters.

Findings

The result highlighted that the optimal control strategy is Bang-Bang control – to vaccinate with maximal effort until either all of the resources are used up or epidemic is over, and the optimal strategies and total cost of vaccination are usually dependent on whether there is any constraint of resource, however, the optimal strategy is independent on the relative cost of vaccination when the supply is limited.

Practical implications

The research indicate a practical view that the enhancement of daily vaccination rate is critical to make effective initiatives to prevent epidemic from out breaking and reduce the costs of control.

Originality/value

The analysis of the time-optimal application of outbreak control is of clear practical value and the introducing of resource constraint in epidemic control is of realistic sense, these are beneficial for epidemiologists and public health officials.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 44 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 8000