Search results

Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to administrative records, we examine mortality risk and participation in the Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) disability programs from a long-term perspective. Over a period of 14 years, we analyze the effect of self-reported health and disability on the probability of death and disability program entry among individuals aged 18–48 in 1984. We also assess DI and SSI programs from a life-cycle perspective. Self-reported poor health and severe disability at baseline are strongly correlated with death over the 14-year follow-up period. These variables also are strong predictors of disability program participation over the follow-up period among non-participants at baseline or before, with increasing marginal probabilities in the out-years. Our cross-sectional models are consistent with recent studies that find that the work-prevented measure is useful in modeling DI entry. However, once self-reported health and functional limitations are accounted for, the longitudinal entry models provide conflicting DI results for the work-prevented measure, suggesting that, contrary to claims based on cross-sectional or short-time horizon application models, the work-prevented measure is an unreliable indicator of severity. The risk of SSI and DI participation is significantly greater for individuals who die, suggesting that future mortality captures the effect of case severity and deterioration of health during the follow-up period. From a life-cycle perspective, a substantially greater proportion of individuals participate in SSI or DI at some point in their lives compared to typical cross-sectional estimates of participation, especially among minorities, people with less than a high school education, and those with early onset of poor health and/or disabilities. Cross-sectional estimates for the Social Security area population indicate SSI and DI participation rates of no more than 5% combined in 2000. In contrast, for individuals aged 43–48 in 1984, we observe a cumulative lifetime SSI and/or DI participation rate of 14%. The corresponding figure is 32% for individuals in that age group who did not graduate from high school, suggesting the need for human capital investments and/or improved work incentives.

To analyse the implications of signs of reform modification, stoppage or reversal, such as price controls, that have emerged in many developing economies, it is necessary to understand their efficiency consequences. This paper aims to study the effect of price interventions in imperfectly competitive product markets, to investigate whether reforms reversals are necessarily harmful.

The model assumes firm set prices and face sunk costs of entry.

The paper shows that a minimum price can induce a Pareto improvement, by preventing price wars and encouraging entry. The result is supported by empirical evidence from some developed economies, holds when sunk cost vanishes, and is robust to some extensions. A fixed price may be optimal in the environment investigated.

The results may be of interest to theorists and policy-makers interested in imperfectly competitive markets.

This article posits that the effect of political hazards on the choice of market entry mode varies across multinational firms based on the extent to which they face expropriation hazards from their potential joint-venture partners in the host country (the level of contractual hazards). As political hazards increase, the multinational faces an increasing threat of opportunistic expropriation by the government. Partnering with host-country firms that possess a comparative advantage in interactions with the host-country government can safeguard against this hazard. However, as contractual hazards increase, the potential benefit to the joint-venture partner of manipulating the political system for its own benefit at the expense of the multinational increases as well, thereby diminishing the hazard-mitigating benefit of forming a joint venture. A two-stage bivariate probit estimation technique is used to test these hypotheses on a sample of 3,389 overseas manufacturing operations by 461 firms in 112 countries.

There has been an increased interest in the role of the financial sector and institutional quality in the development process.

This paper addresses the relationship between corruption and financial sector development by constructing a Schumpeterian endogenous growth model, allowing for the entry of competitive firms with an explicit role for politics and banking.

Assuming that technologically advanced firms are located in developed countries and backward firms in developing countries, the model in this study suggests that low corruption are more growth enhancing in the former group of countries. Better institutions stimulate entry by reducing banking screening costs and entry is more growth enhancing in sectors closer to the technological frontier.

The model in this study is a partial equilibrium analysis and one should include a role for labour markets to address the household’s problem and enrich the model’s conclusions. Secondly, the model specification rests on the fact that the degree of corruption is correlated with the level of institutions. Even though this might be subject to some criticism, this is a common practice across the literature and so, it is clearly a matter of taste.

The main policy conclusion is that anti-corruption policy initiatives should prioritize corruption that distorts incentives with respect to productive investment that directly and negatively affects growth.

This paper addresses the relationship between corruption and financial sector development by constructing a Schumpeterian endogenous growth model, allowing for the entry of competitive firms with an explicit role for politics and banking.

Policy makers have long been interested in whether tax policies can be used to encourage entrepreneurial activity, but prior studies have produced ambiguous results. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether tax rates affect the decision to begin a new entrepreneurial venture.

The paper uses a 12-year panel of tax return data to examine the effects of tax rates on entrepreneurial entry. The paper calculates household-level tax rates and employ multiple measures of entrepreneurship.

The results offer evidence that cuts in relative tax rates faced by entrepreneurs, either in the form of higher rates for wage workers or lower rates for entrepreneurs, increase entry. The magnitudes of these effects suggest that an across the board tax cut would increase entry.

These results suggest that policy makers interested in entrepreneurial activity should account for the affects of tax policies on entrepreneurial activity in their decision making.

The data represent the most accurate publicly available tax information. We expand on previous work by recognizing that many entrepreneurial households also receive wage-and-salary income and addressing whether the effects differ by degree of entrepreneurship (e.g. full-time vs part-time). The analysis of households also includes a broader set of entrepreneurs than prior work, which has typically limited the sample to working-age male household heads. Ultimately, the paper finds robust results suggesting an effect opposite from much of the previous literature, but consistent with recent evidence on entrepreneurial exit decisions.

In this study, we ask whether economic factors that can be directly manipulated by public policy have important effects on the probability that women experience long-lasting unions. Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we estimate a five-stage sequential choice model for women's transitions between single with no prior unions, cohabiting, first-married, re-single (divorced or separated), and remarried. We control for expected income tax burdens, Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) or Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits, Medicaid expenditures, and parameters of state divorce laws, along with an array of demographic, family background, and market factors. We simulate women's sequences of transitions from age 18 to 48 and use the simulated outcomes to predict the probability that a woman with given characteristics (a) forms a first union by age 24 and maintains the union for at least 12 years, and (b) forms a second union by age 36 and maintains it for at least 12 years. While non-policy factors such as race and schooling prove to have important effects on the predicted probabilities of long-term unions, the policy factors have small and/or imprecisely estimated effects; in short, we fail to identify policy mechanisms that could potentially be used to incentivize long-term unions.

Nationally, the welfare caseload declined by more than 50% between 1994 and 2000. Considerable research has been devoted to understanding what caused this decline. Much of the literature examining these changes has modeled the total caseload (the stock) directly. Klerman and Haider (forthcoming) model the underlying flows and show analytically and empirically that previous methods are likely to be biased because they ignore important dynamics. However, due to their focus on the bias of the stock models, they present only limited results concerning the robustness of their findings and utilize only a single measure of economic conditions, the unemployment rate. This paper examines the robustness of the basic stock-flow model developed in Klerman and Haider (forthcoming), considering both richer dynamic specifications and richer measures of economic condition. We find that more complex dynamic specifications do not change the substantive conclusions, but richer measures of the economy do. While a model that only includes the unemployment rate attributes about half of the California caseload decline between 1995 and 1998 to the economy, models that incorporate richer measures of the economy attribute more than 90% of the decline to the economy.

This paper analyzes causes of the low self-employment rate among Mexican-Americans by studying self-employment entry and exits utilizing panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our results indicate that differences in education and financial wealth are important factors in explaining differences in entrepreneurship across groups. Importantly, we analyze self-employment by recognizing heterogeneity in business ownership across industries and show that a classification of firms by human and financial capital intensiveness, or entry barriers, is effective in explaining differences in entrepreneurship across ethnic groups.

Based on a multiple spells approach, this paper studies the extent and the composition of chronic poverty in Germany. The results indicate that about one-third of cross-sectional poverty in a given year is chronic. The characteristics that are most closely associated with long-term poverty are economic inactivity and pensioner status, while the number of children and the gender of the household head do not seem to have a systematic effect. This is in contrast to cross-sectional results where the biggest poverty risk is usually unemployment and a large number of children, while pensioners do not face particularly high poverty risks. Estimates from a multiple spells hazard model further suggest that 6% of the population have unobserved characteristics that lead to low poverty exit and high re-entry rates, making these individuals likely candidates for chronic poverty. A comparison with results for Great Britain and the United States suggests that poverty is less persistent in Germany.

The purpose of this paper is to study the re-entry to the workforce of fully retired persons (unretirement) and whether the decision to resume work depends primarily on social or economic reasons.

Using Swedish register data for already retired individuals older than 55, the incidence of unretirement is studied. Determinant factors behind the decision to re-enter the labor force is analyzed in a binary response logit model.

Unretirement varies between 6 and 14 percent under two different definitions. We find support for higher pension income to decrease the probability to unretire. Other determinants, such as marital status, largely support an interpretation that unretirement is a life-style decision rather than a response to an experienced negative economic situation post retirement.

Due to data limitations, the focus in this study is on the extensive margin (the event of returning to the labor force) and not on hours of work post re-entry.

If older persons that are physically able to work also want to work and succeed in finding work when they demand so, unretirement is welfare enhancing. However, if unretirement is an effect of unexpected realizations post retirement, any increase in the number of persons facing such unexpected shocks implies an increase in the uncertainty of life as retired.

Research on unretirement is scarce and has previously been performed exclusively on US survey data. Knowing the determinants of unretirement is important to know if and how incentives to unretire should be designed.