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The purpose of this paper is to survey literature on macroeconomic nonlinear dynamics.

The paper identifies five influential types of models where the possible generation of endogenous cycles and chaotic motion arises. First, the frameworks that make use of the one‐hump logistic type equation; second, the models inspired on the growth literature of the 1940s; third, intertemporal utility maximization problems with increasing returns; fourth, models that can be represented as piecewise dynamic maps; and, fifth, bounded rationality – heterogeneous expectations setups.

The attention will be mainly focused on the theme of business cycles; an interpretation of the deterministic real business cycle model with increasing returns is proposed and a graphical analysis of the underlying system shows that strange attractors are observable for specific sets of parameter values.

The study of endogenous cycles in macroeconomic literature has important implications for policy: if fluctuations are due to deterministic reasons this may imply that by manipulating policy parameters governments may be able to change the qualitative nature of the economy's dynamics.

The paper gives a comprehensive view of nonlinear dynamics in macroeconomics. It shows that various relevant subjects might be addressed in this kind of models, e.g. economic growth, asset pricing, business cycles, consumption decisions, among others.

The purpose of this paper is to develop growth models that depart from the conventional framework, in the sense that consumption decisions take into account previous periods' expectations about output fluctuations. Households will raise their propensity to consume in periods of expected expansion and they will lower it in phases of predictable recession. Such a framework allows discussion of how growth trends may be disturbed over time as the result of changes in consumer sentiment.

Endogenous growth models are generally designed to address long‐term trends of growth. They explain how the economy converges with or diverges from a balanced growth path and they characterize aggregate behavior, given the optimization problem faced by a representative agent that maximizes consumption utility. In such frameworks, only potential output matters and all decisions, by firms and households, are taken on the assumption that any expectations on the value of the output gap do not interfere with the agents' behavior. Introducing consumer sentiment, a conventional growth model is modified in order to understand how effective output eventually deviates from the balanced growth path.

The proposed framework allows one to introduce nonlinear dynamics into the model, making it feasible to obtain, for reasonable parameter values, endogenous fluctuations. These are triggered by a Neimark‐Sacker bifurcation.

By introducing consumer confidence or consumer sentiment, it is possible to integrate the evaluation of growth and cycles into a unified framework. It is possible to explain business cycles as the result of the consumers' reaction to the expected performance of the economic system.

This paper seeks to explain how inefficient learning rules may lead to a perception of economic and ecological realities that may be systematically distorted in the long run.

The paper evaluates long‐term growth in standard growth‐pollution models. Expectations about future levels of pollution are formed under adaptive learning.

Socio‐economic players (private agents, governments, non‐profit organizations and/or groups of states) may fail in understanding, with full accuracy, long‐term environmental conditions. The perception about environment threats acquires a cyclical nature, even when ecological problems evolve steadily.

Relevant policy implications emerge if the agent is unable to compute the true levels of environmental pollution that will persist in the steady state. Authorities of several kinds are likely to underestimate or overestimate ecological problems.

The learning approach to the perception of the environment can be applied to other economic, social and biological issues, besides material growth. For instance, it can contribute to explain some cases of over‐exploitation of resources: even in the presence of a social planner capable of avoiding typical “tragedy of the commons” situations, this entity may fail in perceiving the reality and, thus, in applying the policies that prevent the exhaustion of resources.

The paper contributes to the literature on growth and environmental issues, but takes a step forward: it approaches not only the observed relation between economy and ecology, but also the impact over the observed relation of a systematically incorrect interpretation of such a connection.

Recent literature has been able to include into standard optimal growth models some hypotheses that allow for the generation of endogenous long‐run fluctuations. This paper aims to contribute to this endogenous business cycles literature by considering social interactions.

The paper is essentially theoretical and it develops a growth/cycles model, in which social interactions play a relevant role. In the proposed model, individuals can choose, under a discrete choice rule, to which social group they prefer to belong. This selection process is constrained essentially by the dimension of the group, which is the main determinant regarding the utility individuals withdraw from social interaction. The proposed set‐up implies the presence of cycles and chaotic motion describing the evolution of group dimension over time.

Because being a member of a group involves costs to households, the inclusion of these costs in a standard Ramsey growth model will imply that endogenous cycles might arise in the time trajectory of the growth rate of output.

The model treats the possible effect of interaction among agents in a social context as a source of fluctuations. Obviously, it is not claimed that this is the only or the single most relevant cause for cycles. Thus, it should be used in future work as an additional factor to take into account in more comprehensive growth analyses.

If the utility withdrawn from belonging to different social groups is a relevant source of macroeconomic instability, relevant policy guidelines could emerge from the understanding of such a causality link.

The paper goes beyond the traditional approach to cycles as triggered by monetary or fiscal policy, markets inefficiency, price sluggishness or some sort of real disturbances.

The purpose of this paper is to present three modified versions of the simple AK endogenous growth model.

Such frameworks stress the role of consumers' sentiment, the impact of fiscal policy and the effect of non‐optimal investment decisions made by firms. In all the cases, today's decisions take into consideration the economic performance of the previous period; in the first case, households react pro‐cyclically to the output path; in the second case, a counter‐cyclical fiscal policy is considered; and in the third case, firms adopt a pro‐cyclical behavior concerning investment choices.

The author studies the stability properties of the three models and concludes that, on each one of them, a saddle‐path stable equilibrium exists.

The paper accentuates the relevance of the reaction of the economic agents relatively to the business cycle. By assuming that the behavior of consumers, government and firms is a behavior of reaction to economic fluctuations, we find interesting and relevant results in what concerns the conventional intertemporal optimization growth model.

The purpose of this study is to examine the spatial fluctuation spillover effect of green total factor productivity (GTFP) under the influence of Internet development.

Using panel data from 283 cities in China for the period 2003–2016, this paper explores the spatial fluctuation spillover effect of internet development on GTFP by applying the spatial autoregressive with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (SARspARCH).

The results of Moran's I test of the residual term and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value indicate that the GTFP has a spatial fluctuation spillover effect, and the estimated results of the SARspARCH model are more accurate than the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and the spatial autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spARCH) model. Specifically, the internet development had a positive spatial fluctuation spillover effect on GTFP in 2003, 2011, 2012 and 2014, and the volatility spillover effect weakens the positive spillover effect of internet development on GTFP. Moreover, Internet development has a significant positive spatial fluctuation spillover effect on GTFP averagely in eastern China and internet-based cities.

The results of this study provide digital solutions for policymakers in improving the level of GTFP in China, with more emphasis on regional synergistic governance to ensure growth.

This paper expands the research ideas for spatial econometric models and provides a more valuable reference for China to achieve green development.

The authors analyse a growth model to explain how economic fluctuations are primarily driven by productive capacities (i.e. capacity utilization driven by innovations and know-how) and productive inefficiencies.

This study’s methodology consists of the combination of the economic growth model, à la Solow–Swan, with a sigmoidal production function (in capital), which may explain growth, poverty traps or fluctuations depending on the relative levels of inefficiencies, productive capacities or lack of know-how.

The authors show that economies may experience economic growth, poverty traps and/or fluctuations (i.e. cycles). Economic growth is reached when an economy experiences both a low level of inefficiencies and a high level of productive capacities while an economy falls into a poverty trap when there is a high level of inefficiencies in production. Instead, the economy gets in cycles when there is a large level of the lack of know-how and low levels of productive capacity.

The authors conclude that more capital per capita (greater savings and investment) and greater productive capacity (with less lack of know-how) are the economic policy keys for an economy being on the path of sustained economic growth.

Most research on tax evasion focused on microeconomic variables revolving around perceptions and decisions of individual taxpayers. However, a new wave of research is now investigating the role of macroeconomic variables in inducing tax evasion. This study adds to the limited studies in this new direction of research. Previous studies found that inflation, low gross domestic product (GDP) growth and gross fixed capital formation causes recession, increases unemployment, raise interest rates, hurts both domestic and foreign direct investments. This study examined the relationship between these variables and estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The study adopts a correlation research design with 2,300 data points collected from 23 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, tax to GDP ratio, gross fixed capital formation per GDP and the GDP annual growth report from each country for the period 2011–2020 was retrieved. Generalised least square regression technique was employed to analyse the data due to the presence of heteroskedasticity in the model and random effect was utilized based on the Hausman test. To avoid misspecification and biased result; therefore, all relevant test was conducted including the multicollinearity test.

The results indicate that GDP annual growth and gross fixed capital formation have a significant negative impact on estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings further indicate a negative but insignificant relationship between inflation and estimated tax evasion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study concludes that both GDP annual growth rate and gross fixed capital formation negatively influence estimated tax evasion and the policy implications in the African continent were discussed.

The new findings on the effects of GDP annual growth, growth fixed capital formation and inflation on estimated tax evasion provide novel knowledge that is currently lacking in the current literature, specifically Sub-Saharan African continent.

This chapter makes two modest contributions by shedding light on the shock propagating role of endogenous firm entry in a more transparent way through the lens of frictionless, flexible-price real business cycle (RBC) model. We find that entry moderates rather than amplifies the shock, as production no longer occurs in a frictionless way but through business formation that consumes time and resources. We also resurrect the ability of the standard RBC model in resolving “productivity-hours worked puzzle” should credit barrier facing entry be formalized in the model.

The global slack hypothesis is central to the discussion of the trade-offs that monetary policy faces in an increasingly more integrated world. The workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010), which fleshes out this hypothesis, shows how expected future local inflation and global slack affect current local inflation. In this chapter, I propose the use of the orthogonalization method of Aoki (1981) and Fukuda (1993) on the workhorse NOEM model to further decompose local inflation into a global component and an inflation differential component. I find that the log-linearized rational expectations model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010) can be solved with two separate subsystems to describe each of these two components of inflation.

I estimate the full NOEM model with Bayesian techniques using data for the United States and an aggregate of its 38 largest trading partners from 1980Q1 until 2011Q4. The Bayesian estimation recognizes the parameter uncertainty surrounding the model and calls on the data (inflation and output) to discipline the parameterization. My findings show that the strength of the international spillovers through trade – even in the absence of common shocks – is reflected in the response of global inflation and is incorporated into local inflation dynamics. Furthermore, I find that key features of the economy can have different impacts on global and local inflation – in particular, I show that the parameters that determine the import share and the price-elasticity of trade matter in explaining the inflation differential component but not the global component of inflation.