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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2016

Martin Haran, Michael McCord, Peadar Davis, John McCord, Colm Lauder and Graeme Newell

The purpose of this paper is to improve the transparency of European emerging real estate market dynamics and performance attributes in the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to improve the transparency of European emerging real estate market dynamics and performance attributes in the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis (GFC). The paper examines the extent and nature of inter-relationships between three emerging real estate markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland as well as determining the rationale for including emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment portfolio. The paper affords a timely update following the reinstatement of lending provision for European emerging real estate investment markets in 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs lead-lag correlations and Grainger causality to examine inter and intra relationships across three emerging European real estate markets, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over the period 2006-2014. Optimal portfolio analysis is undertaken to explore the role of emerging real estate markets within the confines of a multi-asset investment portfolio as well as a Pan-European real estate investment portfolio.

Findings

The findings demonstrate the opportunities afforded by the European emerging real estate markets in terms of both performance enhancement and risk diversification. Significantly, the findings highlight the lack of “uniformity” across the European emerging markets in terms of their investment potential, with Grainger causality confirming that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are not endogenous functions of one-another’s performance.

Practical implications

This paper makes a considered contribution to the analytical interpretation of European emerging property market performance across the real estate cycle. The research demonstrates that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland exhibit specific investment characteristics which differentiate them from the more developed real estate markets across Europe. Indeed emerging markets have the propensity to serve as both a risk diversifier as well as performance enhancer within the confines of a pan-European real estate investment portfolio. However, as the research clearly articulates, intricate understanding of the attributes afforded by the different emerging markets as well as the divergence in sectoral dynamics/performance is integral to portfolio allocation strategies.

Originality/value

Robust academic research on Europe’s emerging real estate markets has been hampered by deficiencies in data provision. This study makes an innovative and timely contribution to redressing the research vacuum through delineated examination of the performance dynamics of three markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, across the real estate cycle. The role and function of emerging markets is depicted within the confines of a Pan-European direct real estate investment portfolio at the all property level and in terms of sectoral specific allocations comprising retail, office and industrial. The explicit added value of the paper is the propensity to bench-mark the performance of emerging markets real estate markets on a like-for-like basis with developed real estate markets across Europe facilitating the exploration of the role and function of emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment context.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 34 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 June 2020

Graeme Newell

The Asian real estate markets have grown considerably in recent years and have taken on increased investment importance, particularly with significant developments in the emerging

583

Abstract

Purpose

The Asian real estate markets have grown considerably in recent years and have taken on increased investment importance, particularly with significant developments in the emerging markets in Asia. This paper assesses the opportunities for more research on the Asian real estate markets, by highlighting the significance of Asia real estate, the drivers behind this growth and the unique opportunities this presents for high-quality real estate research, by both local researchers and their international colleagues. Strategies for delivering this research agenda are also identified.

Design/methodology/approach

This research is based on a thorough understanding of the Asian real estate markets, based on my own research agenda, personal interactions, insights and extensive discussions with real estate leaders in the Asian markets. This is supported by a clear understanding of the real estate research opportunities in the Asian markets and the strategies needed to deliver this research agenda in an effective manner.

Findings

A range of real estate research areas are identified to increase the level of Asian real estate research. This sees research opportunities around key areas such as market dynamics, real estate investment vehicles, alternate real estate sectors, infrastructure and sustainability. Strategies for expanding this level of research for both local and international real estate researchers are also identified.

Practical implications

With the Asian real estate markets taking on more importance with many international real estate investors, it is important to see more high-quality research into these dynamic real estate markets. This research will see a fuller understanding of these Asian real estate markets to enable more informed real estate investment decision-making.

Originality/value

The need for more high-quality research into the Asian real estate markets is clearly presented, with enabling strategies to achieve this agenda identified. This will see expanded research opportunities to critically research these unique real estate markets and produce high-quality research publications.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 39 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 March 2022

Graeme Newell and Muhammad Jufri Marzuki

Within the context of ESG (Environment, Social and Governance), environmental sustainability has taken on increased global importance in recent years. Similarly, real estate

2468

Abstract

Purpose

Within the context of ESG (Environment, Social and Governance), environmental sustainability has taken on increased global importance in recent years. Similarly, real estate investment managers in developing their global real estate investment portfolios need a fuller understanding of the ESG and environmental sustainability dimensions of these global real estate markets for more informed real estate investment decisions. Using the JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index, this paper examines the environmental sustainability transparency status of 99 global real estate markets over 2016–2020 and explores various strategic issues regarding ESG and environmental sustainability; particularly the critical issues relating to climate risk mitigation, climate resilience and zero-carbon. The current status of environmental sustainability in these 99 real estate markets is assessed, with areas for “best practice” improvement identified to the benefit of real estate investment managers; particularly the improvements needed in ESG to support real estate investment in the emerging real estate markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index is analysed to examine strategic issues relating to environmental sustainability transparency. 99 real estate markets are assessed globally for a range of critical ESG issues over 2016–2020. Differences between the developed and emerging real estate markets are highlighted.

Findings

Considerable variation was seen in the ESG and environmental sustainability practices, procedures and frameworks across these 99 real estate markets. This was particularly evident amongst the emerging real estate markets. Compared to the other five dimensions for real estate market transparency, environmental sustainability was seen to be well behind these other dimensions in most markets. Progress has been made in recent years, but it has been slow and steady rather than at a dynamic level. Clearly, more is needed globally to enhance the stature of environmental sustainability in the context of an increasing focus on ESG and specifically on climate risk mitigation, climate resilience and zero-carbon in real estate investment.

Practical implications

With ESG and environmental sustainability taking on increased importance across the international real estate markets, it is important that real estate fund managers have a full understanding of the ESG and environmental sustainability status of these real estate markets where they may be considering real estate investment opportunities; this includes both the developed and emerging real estate markets. This is essential to ensure future capital raising for new funds, as well as supporting the global ESG agenda by the real estate investment community. Specific strategies are also identified for emerging real estate markets to improve their environmental sustainability practices and ESG status.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to use the JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index to assess the environmental sustainability status of 99 real estate markets globally; providing strategic insights for real estate investment managers as they develop their global real estate portfolios and more fully embrace the challenges of ESG and environmental sustainability in the real estate space going forward. Specific strategies are clearly identified for all markets to improve their environmental sustainability ratings to the benefit of both global real estate investment and the broader communities.

Article
Publication date: 26 August 2014

Kim Hiang Liow

The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater China (GC) public property markets, as well as across the GC property markets, three Asian emerging markets and two developed markets of the USA and Japan over the period from January 1999 through December 2013.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the author employ the DCC methodology proposed by Engle (2002) to examine the time-varying nature in return co-movements among the public property markets. Second, the author appeal to the generalized VAR methodology, variance decomposition and the generalized spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the volatility spillover effects across the real estate markets. Finally, the spillover framework is able to combine with recent developments in time series econometrics to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic volatility co-movements regionally and globally. The author also examine whether there are volatility spillover regimes, as well as explore the relationship between the volatility spillover cycles and the correlation spillover cycles.

Findings

Results indicate moderate return co-movements and volatility spillover effects within and across the GC region. Cross-market volatility spillovers are bidirectional with the highest spillovers occur during the global financial crisis (GFC) period. Comparatively, the Chinese public property market's volatility is more exogenous and less influenced by other markets. The volatility spillover effects are subject to regime switching with two structural breaks detected for the five sub-groups of markets examined. There is evidence of significant dependence between the volatility spillover cycles across stock and public real estate, due to the presence of unobserved common shocks.

Research limitations/implications

Because international investors incorporate into their portfolio allocation not only the long-term price relationship but also the short-term market volatility interaction and return correlation structure, the results of this study can shed more light on the extent to which investors can benefit from regional and international diversification in the long run and short-term within and across the GC securitized property sector, with Asian emerging market and global developed markets of Japan and USA. Although it is beyond the scope of this paper, it would be interesting to examine how the two co-movement measures (volatility spillovers and correlation spillovers) can be combined in optimal covariance forecasting in global investing that includes stock and public real estate markets.

Originality/value

This is one of very few papers that comprehensively analyze the dynamic return correlations and conditional volatility spillover effects among the three GC public property markets, as well as with their selected emerging and developed partners over the last decade and during the GFC period, which is the main contribution of the study. The specific contribution is to characterize and measure cross-public real estate market volatility transmission in asset pricing through estimates of several conditional “volatility spillover” indices. In this case, a volatility spillover index is defined as share of total return variability in one public real estate market attributable to volatility surprises in another public real estate market.

Article
Publication date: 4 July 2016

Graeme Newell

Real estate market transparency is an important factor in real estate investment and occupier decision making. The purpose of this paper is to assess real estate transparency over…

2886

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate market transparency is an important factor in real estate investment and occupier decision making. The purpose of this paper is to assess real estate transparency over 2004-2014 to determine whether the European real estate markets have become more transparent in a regional and global context.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the JLL real estate transparency index over 2004-2014, changes in real estate market transparency are assessed for 102 real estate markets. This JLL real estate market transparency index is also assessed against corruption levels and business competitiveness in these markets.

Findings

Improvements in real estate transparency are clearly evident in many European real estate markets, with several of these European real estate markets seen to be the major improvers in transparency from a global real estate markets perspective.

Practical implications

Institutional investors and occupiers see real estate market transparency as a key factor in their strategic real estate investment and occupancy decision making. By assessing changes in real estate transparency across 102 real estate markets, investors and occupiers are able to make more informed real estate investment decisions across the global real estate markets. In particular, this relates to both investors and occupiers being able to more fully understand the risk dimensions of their international real estate decisions.

Originality/value

This paper is the first paper to assess the dynamics of real estate market transparency over 2004-2014, with a particular focus on the 33 European real estate markets in a global context to facilitate more informed real estate investment and occupancy decision making.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 34 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 May 2009

Brenna O'Roarty

The demand for value added investment in the European real estate market emerged in the mid to late 1990s and over the past decade has grown rapidly as a preferred investment…

1097

Abstract

Purpose

The demand for value added investment in the European real estate market emerged in the mid to late 1990s and over the past decade has grown rapidly as a preferred investment style. Recent evidence suggests that investor appetite for value added products is set to intensify further. The purpose of this paper is to consider value added investment in the context of the wider market and in particular considers the rationale underpinning the current surge in demand. The paper explores the core components of its risk return profile and puts forward a strategic investment framework for European value added investment.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper develops a three tier filter to enable the classification of investment style. First, the risk parameters of the key investment characteristics are considered; second, the degree of risk exposure experienced on any one dimension and finally, the combination of such risks taken at any one time.

Findings

The key findings of this paper are: the shift in capital towards real estate at the beginning of the decade brought a new investor audience to the sector. Alongside the existing investor base, their growing experience in the sector, together with steep pricing competition for core has increased their risk appetite within the sector.

Originality/value

The paper emphasizes that investment strategies focussed on delivering true risk adjusted value added returns must be capable of identifying structural change, evaluating its implications for the real estate market and analysing its impact on current and future value.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 October 2021

Olatoye Ojo, Daniel Ibrahim Dabara and Michael Tolulope Adeyemi Ajayi

This study examined the performance of commercial and residential real estate investments in the Ibadan property market to provide information for investment decisions.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examined the performance of commercial and residential real estate investments in the Ibadan property market to provide information for investment decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used a mixed research design (qualitative and quantitative). Data were obtained employing in-depth interviews with randomly selected sixteen estate surveyors and valuers practising in the Ibadan property market. Data for the study were analysed using the phenomenological thematic content analysis. Similarly, data on rental and capital values were translated to income, capital and holding period returns. The Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) and Philip–Perron (PP) models were used for unit root analysis. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression model was used to test for inflation-hedging characteristics, and the Granger causality tests were carried out to analyse the causal relationship between the variables.

Findings

The study revealed that the Ibadan property market is still immature. For the return components, the study found that the Ibadan property market provided mean holding period returns of 10.82%, 14.31 and 8.29% for office, shop and residential property types, respectively. The study also revealed that the selected property types are perverse hedges against inflation. Similarly, the study showed a unidirectional causal relationship between inflation and returns on the selected property types.

Practical implications

Results of this study revealed the peculiar nature of the Ibadan property market; findings from the survey can be used as a guide for investment decisions by foreign and domestic investors. Shrewd investors can take advantage of the high returns provided by the real estate assets in the Ibadan property market (by investing in the property market) to obtain high returns and expand their investment portfolio.

Originality/value

This study is the first to examine, in an eclectic and comparative context, the performance of commercial and residential properties in the Ibadan property market from the perspective of its market maturity level, returns profile, as well as its inflation-hedging characteristics. Findings from the study will equip both individual and institutional investors with valuable information for investment decisions.

Details

Property Management, vol. 40 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 October 2020

Ashish Gupta and Graeme Newell

This study provides an extensive risk assessment framework for nonlisted real estate funds' (NREFs) portfolio management in India across their life cycle; that is, the investment…

Abstract

Purpose

This study provides an extensive risk assessment framework for nonlisted real estate funds' (NREFs) portfolio management in India across their life cycle; that is, the investment stage, the monitoring stage and the exit stage in an emerging market context. The study of risk across these three stages is a new addition to the literature and assumes importance in the context of real estate portfolio management for NREFs in the emerging markets (e.g. India), which are predominantly an opportunistic investment play.

Design/methodology/approach

The risk assessment framework is built on the multiactor/multicriteria risk priorities, using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), obtained from 35 experts in four real estate fund management professional groups; namely, investors/fund managers, valuers, consultants and international developers.

Findings

The results demonstrate that the real estate portfolio management risk priorities change across the three life cycle stages of the fund. At the investment stage, specific risks are most critical; at the monitoring stage, it is important to concentrate on all three risks – specific, systematic and management risks; and at the exit stage, systematic risk plays a crucial role. Real estate portfolio management risk evaluation at the subfactor level shows that investee/partner and location selection needs to be critically evaluated at the time of the investment; project execution and quality of development must be monitored during the construction/monitoring period; and repatriation of the funds, currency volatility and exit risk (resale) are critical at the exit stage of the fund.

Practical implications

The understanding of the real estate portfolio management risk transformation across the life cycle stages is crucial for NREF managers for risk minimization, transfer and mitigation strategy formulation in their real estate portfolios. Unlike previous research that evaluates investment risk, this study breaks the NREF's risks into the investment, monitoring and exit stages. The key risk factors for each stage depend on the NREF's real estate activities for that stage. These activities, in turn, give rise to a typical risk profile for that stage. The findings are crucial for the various stakeholders of real estate fund management and policymakers in an emerging market context; particularly India, one of the fastest growing major economies in the world.

Originality/value

This risk assessment framework for simultaneously assessing risk across the three life cycle stages of NREFs is a new addition to the literature.

Article
Publication date: 17 July 2020

Ashish Gupta, Graeme Newell, Deepak Bajaj and Satya Mandal

Real estate forms an important part of any economy and the investment in real estate, in turn, is impacted by the macroeconomic environment of that country. The purpose of the…

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate forms an important part of any economy and the investment in real estate, in turn, is impacted by the macroeconomic environment of that country. The purpose of the present research is to examine macroeconomic determinants of foreign and domestic non-listed real estate fund (NREF) flows and to examine whether they are similar or different for an emerging economy like India.

Design/methodology/approach

The long and short-run cointegration between the time-series variables is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and error correction model (ECM) using quarterly data across the 2005–2017 period. ARDL is a suitable method for short time-series data.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that domestic NREF flows are positively and significantly impacted by real GDP and performance of listed real estate stocks (i.e. BSE realty index). Whereas, foreign NREF flows are positively and significantly impacted by the exchange rate, performance of listed real estate stocks and domestic NREF flows.

Practical implications

The empirical results have significant implications for academicians, policy makers and real estate market practitioners. In the context of these results, some interesting insights are gained that would help in the implementation of the policies aimed toward increasing the fund flows in the real estate sector, which in turn would have a significant trickle-down effect on the Indian economy.

Originality/value

The existing literature looks at macroeconomic and other drivers of foreign investment in international real estate investments. However, there are very few studies on the determinants of domestic real estate investment flows and on determinants of NREFs' investment flows; particularly in emerging markets. The present study, in contrast, evaluates simultaneously the macroeconomic determinants of the domestic and foreign NREFs' investment flows in India. The ARDL and ECM method used has been applied for the first time to the study of NREFs.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 38 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2019

Benjamin Gbolahan Ekemode and Abel Olaleye

In a bid to broaden the understanding of the real estate investment decision-making framework, the purpose of this paper is to examine the real estate asset allocation…

Abstract

Purpose

In a bid to broaden the understanding of the real estate investment decision-making framework, the purpose of this paper is to examine the real estate asset allocation decision-making practices of real estate funds in Nigeria, a developing economy. This is with a view to providing information toward enhancing real estate investment decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed-methods approach comprising a combination of literature review, expert interviews and semi-structured questionnaire survey is adopted for this study. Through literature review and expert interviews, the asset allocation decision-making process of institutional real estate funds was identified. Based on the literature review and expert discussions, a semi-structured questionnaire was developed and self-administered on fund/portfolio managers of 59 institutional real estate funds in Nigeria to investigate their asset allocation decision-making practice. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics for the closed-ended questions while the open-ended questions were content analyzed.

Findings

The findings revealed that the asset allocation decision-making process utilized by public and private real estate funds follows an opportunistic asset accumulation approach. The decision-making process also varies depending on the nature of the fund. Further findings showed that government policies, political uncertainties and regulatory mechanism motivate asset allocation decisions. Moreover, majority of the sampled real estate funds employed a combination of in-house personnel and external consultants (hybrid), while mean/standard deviation and cash flow analysis (DCF, NPV) were mostly utilized by the funds in making property investment decisions.

Practical implications

The findings implied that the real estate asset allocation decision-making process of institutional property investors in Nigeria deviates from the normative model of the asset allocation process prescribed in the literature and varies depending on the nature of the real estate funds. As such, familiarization of institutional investors with government policies, political climate and other regulatory mechanism (barriers to entry) guiding the ownership and operation of real estate assets in the country could improve their real estate investment decisions.

Originality/value

The study complements and extends existing literature on real estate asset allocation decision-making process of institutional investors from the viewpoint of the actors involved in a developing African economy.

Details

Property Management, vol. 38 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

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