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Article
Publication date: 12 April 2021

Maretno Agus Harjoto and Fabrizio Rossi

This study examines the market reaction to the World Health Organization (WHO) announcement of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic on the…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the market reaction to the World Health Organization (WHO) announcement of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic on the emerging equity markets and compares the reaction with developed markets. This study also compares the market reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic with the market reactions to the 2008 global financial crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International daily stock indices data and the Carhart and the GARCH(1,1) models for an event study, the authors examine the cumulative abnormal returns during 30 and 10 trading days and the extended 60 days before and after the WHO pandemic announcement. It also compares the market reactions during the COVID-19 pandemic with the reactions to the Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy announcement during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Findings

This study finds that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significantly greater negative impact to the stock markets in emerging countries than in the developed countries. The negative impact on the emerging markets is more pronounced for firms with small market capitalizations and for growth stocks. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is stronger in the energy and financial sectors in both emerging and developed markets. The positive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred in healthcare and telecommunications for the emerging markets and information technology for the developed markets. This study also finds that the equity markets in both emerging and developed countries recovered faster from the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the 2008 global financial crisis.

Social implications

Investors' desire to diversify their risks across different countries and sectors in the emerging markets could bring superior returns. The diversification strategies bring critical financial supports to forestall the contagion of COVID-19, to protect lives, and to save the emerging economies, especially for those financially constrained countries that are facing twin health and economic shocks by channeling their investments to countries with weak healthcare systems.

Originality/value

This study extends the literature that examines market reactions to stock market shocks by examining the market reactions to the COVID-19 outbreak on the emerging and developed equity markets across different market capitalizations, valuation and sectors. This study also finds that the markets recovered quicker from the COVID-19 pandemic announcement than during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2004

Nidal Rashid Sabri

This paper explored the new features of emerging stock markets, in order to point out the most associated indicators of increasing stock return volatility, which may lead…

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Abstract

This paper explored the new features of emerging stock markets, in order to point out the most associated indicators of increasing stock return volatility, which may lead to instability of emerging markets. The study covers a sample of five geographical areas of emerging economies, including Mexico, Korea, South Africa, Turkey, and Malaysia. It used the backward multiple‐regression technique to examine the relationship between monthly changes of stock price indices as dependent variable and the associated predicting local as well as international variables, which represent possible causes of increasing price volatility and initiating crises in emerging stock markets. The study covered monthly data for a period of forty‐eight months from January 1997 to December 2000. The study revealed that stock trading volume and currency exchange rate respectively represent the highest positive correlation to the emerging stock price changes; thus represent the most predicting variables of increasing price volatility. International stock price index, deposit interest rate, and bond trading volume were moderate predicting variables for emerging stock price volatility. While changes in inflation rate showed the least positive correlation to stock price volatility, thus represents the least predicting variable.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 October 2008

Duc Khuong Nguyen and Mondher Bellalah

This paper aims to empirically reexamine the dynamic changes in emerging market volatility around stock market liberalization.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically reexamine the dynamic changes in emerging market volatility around stock market liberalization.

Design/methodology/approach

First, a bivariate GARCH‐M model which counts for partial market integration is developed for modeling stock market volatility in emerging market countries. Second, the Bai and Perron stability test in a linear framework and a pooled time‐series cross‐section model were employed to examine the empirical relationship between stock market liberalization and volatility.

Findings

Structural breaks detected in emerging market volatility series did not take place at the time of official liberalization dates, but they rather coincide with alternative events of liberalization process. The effects of official liberalization on return volatility are on average insignificant. The stock return volatility is however lowered when the participation of the US investors becomes effective and important on emerging markets, and when emerging markets increase in size.

Research limitations/implications

The study assumes a static degree of market integration. Future research should extend our model by using a time‐varying measure of market integration.

Practical implications

Policymakers in frontier markets should open up local stock markets to attract foreign investments and to allow local firms to benefit from international risk sharing. Also, the gradual embankment of market‐liberalization is necessary to gain investors' confidence and to prevent the harmful effects of foreign capital flows.

Originality/value

The consideration of alternative events of liberalization process and the use of a powerful stability test to examine the time‐series properties of conditional volatilities.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 7 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 September 2022

Tazeen Arsalan, Bilal Ahmed Chishty, Shagufta Ghouri and Nayeem Ul Hassan Ansari

This research paper aims to analyze the stock exchanges of developed, emerging and developing countries to investigate the volatility in stock markets and to evaluate the…

Abstract

Purpose

This research paper aims to analyze the stock exchanges of developed, emerging and developing countries to investigate the volatility in stock markets and to evaluate the rate of mean reversion.

Design/methodology/approach

The stock exchanges included in the research are NASDAQ, Tokyo stock exchange, Shanghai stock exchange, Bombay stock exchange, Karachi stock exchange and Jakarta stock exchange. Secondary daily data from Bloomberg are used to conduct the research for the period from January 2011 to December 2018. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model was applied to examine volatility and the half-life formula was used to calculate mean reversion in days.

Findings

The research concluded that all the stock exchanges included in the research satisfy the assumptions of mean reversion. Developing countries have the lowest volatility while emerging countries have the highest volatility which means that the rate of mean reversion is fastest in developing countries and slowest in emerging countries.

Research limitations/implications

Future studies can determine the reasons for fastest rate of mean reversion in developing countries and slowest rate of mean reversion in emerging countries.

Practical implications

Developing countries show the lowest mean reversion in days while the emerging countries show the highest mean reversion in days indicating that developing countries take less time to revert to their mean position.

Originality/value

The majority of previous studies on univariate volatility models are mostly on applications of the models. Only a few researchers have taken the robustness of the models into account when applying them in emerging countries and not in developed, developing and emerging countries in one place. This makes the current study unique and more rigorous.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 September 2020

Mehmet Emin Yildiz, Yaman Omer Erzurumlu and Bora Kurtulus

The beta coefficient used for the cost of equity calculation is at the heart of the valuation process. This study conducts comparative analyses of the classical capital…

Abstract

Purpose

The beta coefficient used for the cost of equity calculation is at the heart of the valuation process. This study conducts comparative analyses of the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and downside CAPM risk parameters to gain further insight into which risk parameter leads to better performing risk measures at explaining stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The study conducts a comparative analysis of 16 risk measures at explaining the stock returns of 4531 companies of 20 developed and 25 emerging market index for 2000–2018. The analyses are conducted using both the global and local indices and both USD and local currency returns. Calculated risk measures are analyzed in a panel data setup using a univariate model. Results are investigated in country-specific and model-specific subsets.

Findings

The results show that (1) downside betas are better than CAPM betas at explaining the stock returns, (2) both risk measure groups perform better for emerging markets, (3) global downside beta model performs better than global beta model, implying the existence of the contagion effect, (4) high significance levels of total risk and unsystematic risk measures further support the shortfall of CAPM betas and (5) higher correlation of markets after negative shocks such as pandemics puts global CAPM based downside beta to a more reliable position.

Research limitations/implications

The data are limited to the index securities as beta could be time varying.

Practical implications

Results overall provide insight into the cost of equity calculation and emerging market assets valuation.

Originality/value

The framework and methodology enable us to compare and contrast CAPM and downside-CAPM risk measures at the firm level, at the global/local level and in terms of the level of market development.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 January 2012

Murali Batareddy, Arun Kumar Gopalaswamy and Chia‐Hsing Huang

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stability of the long‐run relationships between emerging (India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan) and developed stock markets

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stability of the long‐run relationships between emerging (India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan) and developed stock markets (USA and Japan). The study aims at adding to the literature on market integration by investigating the hypothesis that the Asian emerging stock markets are increasingly converging with the US stock market over time.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use time varying cointegration tests (rolling and recursive cointegration) which allow for time variation in the underlying data generating process (possible structural breaks in the long‐run relationships). Ten year index data from mid 1998 to 2008 of the respective stock markets have been used for this study.

Findings

Empirical findings support the presence of one long‐run relationship (cointegration vector) between emerging and developed stock markets. Both domestic and external forces affect stock market behavior, leading to long‐run equilibrium but the individual Asian emerging stock markets tend to display stronger linkages with the USA (developed counterpart) rather than with their neighbors. The degree of convergence among Asian emerging markets has increased over the last few years.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to study cointegration among Asian emerging stock markets namely India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as their cointegration with the developed stock markets of the USA and Japan.

Article
Publication date: 21 October 2013

Charles Amo-Yartey and Joshua Abor

– The paper aims to study the importance of financial market development and financial structure in explaining the financial policies of firms in emerging market countries.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to study the importance of financial market development and financial structure in explaining the financial policies of firms in emerging market countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a panel data of 32 countries and the system generalized method of moments approach.

Findings

The analysis shows that stock market development is associated with higher use of external finance relative to internal finance, while bond market development is associated with lower use of external finance relative to internal finance. The findings of this study also indicate that stock market development tends to shift the policies of firms towards less debt and more equity, and bond market development is associated with higher debt and less equity in emerging economies.

Originality/value

The value of this study is in respect of its contribution to the extant literature on corporate financial policies in emerging market economies.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 28 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 July 2015

Jacinta Chikaodi Nwachukwu and Omowunmi Shitta

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the weak-form efficiency of 24 emerging and nine industrial stock market indices around the world. It tests for the predictability…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the weak-form efficiency of 24 emerging and nine industrial stock market indices around the world. It tests for the predictability and the presence of seasonal patterns in rates of return from January 2000 to December 2010.

Design/methodology/approach

It reports on the descriptive statistics for estimated monthly percentage returns. This is complemented by the use of both parametric and non-parametric techniques to test for abnormal return behaviour in stock markets.

Findings

The results show that: first, emerging economies which persisted with market-oriented reforms had higher returns relative to risk, indicating their attractiveness for risk diversification; second, successive changes in stock prices were interrelated with each other and therefore contained information for predicting future prices in two-thirds of the emerging markets compared to one-third of industrial economies; and third, the turn-of-the calendar year effect was present for half of the emerging markets vis-à-vis one-quarter of the developed countries. The authors found limited support for the tax-loss selling hypothesis for both the emerging and industrial economies.

Research limitations/implications

The paper fails to specifically analyse the implications for security returns of changes in technology, institutions, volume of trading and regulations in the different stock markets.

Practical implications

The results should be particularly informative for foreign investors with regard to the risk diversification benefits of the various emerging and industrialised stock markets and the expected risk-return trade-offs.

Originality/value

The paper provides a more powerful explanation for the role of institutional arrangements, infrastructure, culture and other country-specific risk factors in asset pricing compared to disparate case studies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 July 2015

Wasim Ahmad and Sanjay Sehgal

The purpose of this paper is to examine the regime shifts and stock market volatility in the stock market returns of seven emerging economies popularly called as “BRIICKS”…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the regime shifts and stock market volatility in the stock market returns of seven emerging economies popularly called as “BRIICKS” which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Korea and South Africa, over the period from February 1996 to January 2012 by applying Markov regime switching (MS) in mean-variance model.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply MS model developed by Hamilton (1989) using its mean-variance switching framework on the monthly returns data of BRIICKS stock markets. Further, the estimated probabilities along with variances have been used to calculate the time-varying volatility. The authors also examine market synchronization and portfolio diversification possibilities in sample markets by calculating the Logit transformation based cross-market correlations and Sharpe ratios.

Findings

The applied model finds two regimes in each of these markets. The estimated results also helped in formulating the asset allocation strategies based on market synchronization and Sharpe ratio. The results suggest that BRIICKS is not a homogeneous asset class and each market should be independently evaluated in terms of its regime-switching behavior, volatility persistence and level of synchronization with other emerging markets. The study finally concludes that Russia, India and China as the best assets to invest within this emerging market basket which can be pooled with a mature market portfolio to achieve further benefits of risk diversification.

Research limitations/implications

The study does not provide macroeconomic and financial explanations of the observed differences in dynamics among sample emerging stock markets. The study does not examine these markets under multivariate framework.

Practical implications

The results highlight the role of regime shifts and stock market volatility in the asset allocation and risk management. This study has important implications for international asset allocation and stock market regulation by way of identifying and recognizing the differences on regimes and on the dynamics of the swings which can be very useful in the field of portfolio and public financial management.

Originality/value

The paper is novel in employing tests of MS under mean-variance framework to examine the regime shifts and volatility switching behavior in seven promising BRIICKS stock market. Further, using MS model, the authors analyze the duration (persistence) of each identified regime across sample markets. The empirical results of MS model have been used for making portfolio allocation strategies and also examine the synchronization across markets. All these aspects of stock market regime have been largely ignored by the existing studies in emerging market context particularly the BRIICKS markets.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2003

M. Kabir Hassan

Summarizes the net capital flows from industrial to developing/transitional countries 1970‐1996 and recent changes in their equity and bond markets; and identifies the…

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Abstract

Summarizes the net capital flows from industrial to developing/transitional countries 1970‐1996 and recent changes in their equity and bond markets; and identifies the factors affecting these portfolio flows and risk/return behaviour in OIC stock markets. Uses monthly stock return data from ten OIC countries to demonstrate that despite their volatility they might offer opportunities for portfolio diversification; and uses cointegration methods to investigate the dynamic relationships between them. Discusses the causes of the Asian currency crisis and its impact on these stock marekts; and considers what trade and development policies OIC countries should adopt to improve their economies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 29 no. 2/3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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