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Article
Publication date: 25 April 2023

Nehal Elshaboury, Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Abobakr Al-Sakkaf and Ashutosh Bagchi

The energy efficiency of buildings has been emphasized along with the continual development in the building and construction sector that consumes a significant amount of energy…

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Abstract

Purpose

The energy efficiency of buildings has been emphasized along with the continual development in the building and construction sector that consumes a significant amount of energy. To this end, the purpose of this research paper is to forecast energy consumption to improve energy resource planning and management.

Design/methodology/approach

This study proposes the application of the convolutional neural network (CNN) for estimating the electricity consumption in the Grey Nuns building in Canada. The performance of the proposed model is compared against that of long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks. The models are trained and tested using monthly electricity consumption records (i.e. from May 2009 to December 2021) available from Concordia’s facility department. Statistical measures (e.g. determination coefficient [R2], root mean squared error [RMSE], mean absolute error [MAE] and mean absolute percentage error [MAPE]) are used to evaluate the outcomes of models.

Findings

The results reveal that the CNN model outperforms the other model predictions for 6 and 12 months ahead. It enhances the performance metrics reported by the LSTM and MLP models concerning the R2, RMSE, MAE and MAPE by more than 4%, 6%, 42% and 46%, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model uses the available data to predict the electricity consumption for 6 and 12 months ahead. In June and December 2022, the overall electricity consumption is estimated to be 195,312 kWh and 254,737 kWh, respectively.

Originality/value

This study discusses the development of an effective time-series model that can forecast future electricity consumption in a Canadian heritage building. Deep learning techniques are being used for the first time to anticipate the electricity consumption of the Grey Nuns building in Canada. Additionally, it evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning and machine learning methods for predicting electricity consumption using established performance indicators. Recognizing electricity consumption in buildings is beneficial for utility providers, facility managers and end users by improving energy and environmental efficiency.

Details

Construction Innovation , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1471-4175

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 January 2024

Wenhao Zhou, Hailin Li, Hufeng Li, Liping Zhang and Weibin Lin

Given the regional heterogeneity of economic development, electricity consumption in various regions exhibits a discrepant growth pattern. The purpose of this study is to…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the regional heterogeneity of economic development, electricity consumption in various regions exhibits a discrepant growth pattern. The purpose of this study is to construct a grey system forecasting model with intelligent parameters for predicting provincial electricity consumption in China.

Design/methodology/approach

First, parameter optimization and structural expansion are simultaneously integrated into a unified grey system prediction framework, enhancing its adaptive capabilities. Second, by setting the minimum simulation percentage error as the optimization goal, the authors apply the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to search for the optimal grey generation order and background value coefficient. Third, to assess the performance across diverse power consumption systems, the authors use two electricity consumption cases and select eight other benchmark models to analyze the simulation and prediction errors. Further, the authors conduct simulations and trend predictions using data from all 31 provinces in China, analyzing and predicting the development trends in electricity consumption for each province from 2021 to 2026.

Findings

The study identifies significant heterogeneity in the development trends of electricity consumption systems among diverse provinces in China. The grey prediction model, optimized with multiple intelligent parameters, demonstrates superior adaptability and dynamic adjustment capabilities compared to traditional fixed-parameter models. Outperforming benchmark models across various evaluation indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), average percentage error and Theil’s index, the new model establishes its robustness in predicting electricity system behavior.

Originality/value

Acknowledging the limitations of traditional grey prediction models in capturing diverse growth patterns under fixed-generation orders, single structures and unadjustable background values, this study proposes a fractional grey intelligent prediction model with multiple parameter optimization. By incorporating multiple parameter optimizations and structure expansion, it substantiates the model’s superiority in forecasting provincial electricity consumption.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 November 2023

Fan Zhang and Ming Cao

As climate change impacts residential life, people typically use heating or cooling appliances to deal with varying outside temperatures, bringing extra electricity demand and…

Abstract

Purpose

As climate change impacts residential life, people typically use heating or cooling appliances to deal with varying outside temperatures, bringing extra electricity demand and living costs. Water is more cost-effective than electricity and could provide the same body utility, which may be an alternative choice to smooth electricity consumption fluctuation and provide living cost incentives. Therefore, this study aims to identify the substitute effect of water on the relationship between climate change and residential electricity consumption.

Design/methodology/approach

This study identifies the substitute effect of water and potential heterogeneity using panel data from 295 cities in China over the period 2004–2019. The quantile regression and the partially linear functional coefficient model in this study could reduce the risks of model misspecification and enable detailed identification of the substitution mechanism, which is in line with reality and precisely determines the heterogeneity at different consumption levels.

Findings

The results indicate that residential water consumption can weaken the impact of cooling demand on residential electricity consumption, especially in low-income regions. Moreover, residents exhibited adaptive asymmetric behaviors. As the electricity consumption level increased, the substitute effects gradually get strong. The substitute effects gradually strengthened when residential water consumption per capita exceeds 16.44 tons as the meeting of the basic life guarantee.

Originality/value

This study identifies the substitution role of water and heterogeneous behaviors in the residential sector in China. These findings augment the existing literature and could aid policymakers, investors and residents regarding climate issues, risk management and budget management.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Hua Pan and Rong Liu

On the one hand, this paper is to further understand the residents' differentiated power consumption behaviors and tap the residential family characteristics labels from the…

Abstract

Purpose

On the one hand, this paper is to further understand the residents' differentiated power consumption behaviors and tap the residential family characteristics labels from the perspective of electricity stability. On the other hand, this paper is to address the problem of lack of causal relationship in the existing research on the association analysis of residential electricity consumption behavior and basic information data.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise method is used to extract the typical daily load curve of residents. Second, the degree of electricity consumption stability is described from three perspectives: daily minimum load rate, daily load rate and daily load fluctuation rate, and is evaluated comprehensively using the entropy weight method. Finally, residential customer labels are constructed from sociological characteristics, residential characteristics and energy use attitudes, and the enhanced FP-growth algorithm is employed to investigate any potential links between each factor and the stability of electricity consumption.

Findings

Compared with the original FP-growth algorithm, the improved algorithm can realize the excavation of rules containing specific attribute labels, which improves the excavation efficiency. In terms of factors influencing electricity stability, characteristics such as a large number of family members, being well employed, having children in the household and newer dwelling labels may all lead to poorer electricity stability, but residents' attitudes toward energy use and dwelling type are not significantly associated with electricity stability.

Originality/value

This paper aims to uncover household socioeconomic traits that influence the stability of home electricity use and to shed light on the intricate connections between them. Firstly, in this article, from the perspective of electricity stability, the characteristics of the power consumption of residents' users are refined. And the authors use the entropy weight method to comprehensively evaluate the stability of electricity usage. Secondly, the labels of residential users' household characteristics are screened and organized. Finally, the improved FP-growth algorithm is used to mine the residential household characteristic labels that are strongly associated with electricity consumption stability.

Highlights

  1. The stability of electricity consumption is important to the stable operation of the grid.

  2. An improved FP-growth algorithm is employed to explore the influencing factors.

  3. The improved algorithm enables the mining of rules containing specific attribute labels.

  4. Residents' attitudes toward energy use are largely unrelated to the stability of electricity use.

The stability of electricity consumption is important to the stable operation of the grid.

An improved FP-growth algorithm is employed to explore the influencing factors.

The improved algorithm enables the mining of rules containing specific attribute labels.

Residents' attitudes toward energy use are largely unrelated to the stability of electricity use.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 December 2023

Samuel Osei-Gyebi and John Bosco Dramani

The purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear relationship between electricity consumption (EC) and electricity transmission losses (ETL) in Ghana. Also, we examined how…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear relationship between electricity consumption (EC) and electricity transmission losses (ETL) in Ghana. Also, we examined how ETL moderate the effect of EC on economic growth in Ghana from 1980 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

We used timeseries data from 1980 to 2021 within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to analyze the links among ETL, EC and economic growth in Ghana.

Findings

Findings show the existence of an asymmetric long-run relationship between EC and ETL. Also, the negative effects of ETL on EC are bigger in the long run. In addition, ETL and EC combine to reduce economic growth, in the long run, providing evidence for the energy-led growth theory in Ghana. Population and inflation were also found to have a significant effect on economic growth in Ghana.

Originality/value

We examined the nonlinear nexus of EC and ETL, which extant studies have ignored in discussing the link between EC and economic growth. Again, we showed that ETL reduces EC causing a reduction in economic growth.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Tarig Zeinelabdeen Yousif Ahmed, Mawahib Eltayeb Ahmed, Quosay A. Ahmed and Asia Adlan Mohamed

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of countries has some of the highest electricity consumptions and carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the world. This poses a direct…

Abstract

Purpose

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of countries has some of the highest electricity consumptions and carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the world. This poses a direct challenge to the GCC government’s ability to meet their CO2 reduction targets. In this review paper the current household electricity consumption situation in the GCC is reviewed.

Design/methodology/approach

Three scenarios for reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions are proposed and evaluated using strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) as well as the political, economic, social, technical, legal and environmental (PESTLE) frameworks.

Findings

The first scenario found that using solar Photovoltaic (PV) or hybrid solar PV and wind system to power household lighting could save significant amounts of energy, based on lighting making up between 8% to 30% of electricity consumption in GCC households. The second scenario considers replacement of conventional appliances with energy-efficient ones that use around 20% less energy. The third scenario looks at influencing consumer behavior towards sustainable energy consumption.

Practical implications

Pilot trials of these scenarios are recommended for a number of households. Then the results and feedback could be used to launch the schemes GCC-wide.

Social implications

The proposed scenarios are designed to encourage responsible electricity consumption and production within households (SDG12).

Originality/value

All three proposals are found viable for policymakers to implement. However, to ensure successful implementation GCC Governments are recommended to review all the opportunities and challenges associated with these schemes as laid out in this paper.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2024

Romi Bhakti Hartarto, Mohammed Shameem P., Dyah Titis Kusuma Wardani and Muhammad Luqman Iskandar

This study aims to explore the diverse sources of electricity generation (coal, natural gas, oil and hydroelectricity) and their respective associations with economic growth and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the diverse sources of electricity generation (coal, natural gas, oil and hydroelectricity) and their respective associations with economic growth and environmental quality.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses static panel data analysis with a random effects model for six selected ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar) from 1994 to 2014.

Findings

This study reveals that economic growth in six selected ASEAN countries is enhanced by electricity generation from all sources, while the contribution of electricity production from hydroelectricity remains the largest and strongest. There is no environmental impact of electricity production from hydroelectric, whereas fossil fuel-based electricity production emits carbon dioxide, with coal sources being the largest contributor, followed by natural gas and oil.

Practical implications

Based on the results, these six ASEAN countries should invest more in hydropower projects, reduce the coal mix in power generation and promote clean coal technology to improve economic efficiency and environmental sustainability.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no research has examined the relationship between electricity production, environmental quality and economic growth in Southeast Asian nations. Therefore, the outcome of this study is expected to provide insightful results to supplement the framing and implementation of national and collective regional strategies for sustainable electricity generation in ASEAN countries.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Chuanmin Mi, Xiaoyi Gou, Yating Ren, Bo Zeng, Jamshed Khalid and Yuhuan Ma

Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system…

Abstract

Purpose

Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system. Consequently, it fosters reasonable scheduling plans, ensuring the safety of the system and improving the economic dispatching efficiency of the power system.

Design/methodology/approach

First, a new seasonal grey buffer operator in the longitudinal and transverse dimensional perspectives is designed. Then, a new seasonal grey modeling approach that integrates the new operator, full real domain fractional order accumulation generation technique, grey prediction modeling tool and fruit fly optimization algorithm is proposed. Moreover, the rationality, scientificity and superiority of the new approach are verified by designing 24 seasonal electricity consumption forecasting approaches, incorporating case study and amalgamating qualitative and quantitative research.

Findings

Compared with other comparative models, the new approach has superior mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute error. Furthermore, the research results show that the new method provides a scientific and effective mathematical method for solving the seasonal trend power consumption forecasting modeling with impact disturbance.

Originality/value

Considering the development trend of longitudinal and transverse dimensions of seasonal data with impact disturbance and the differences in each stage, a new grey buffer operator is constructed, and a new seasonal grey modeling approach with multi-method fusion is proposed to solve the seasonal power consumption forecasting problem.

Highlights

The highlights of the paper are as follows:

  1. A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

  2. The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

  3. A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

  4. Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

  5. The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2023

Umme Humayara Manni and Datuk. Dr. Kasim Hj. Md. Mansur

Energy security has been talked about by governments and policymakers because the global energy market is unstable and greenhouse gas emissions threaten the long-term health of…

Abstract

Purpose

Energy security has been talked about by governments and policymakers because the global energy market is unstable and greenhouse gas emissions threaten the long-term health of the global environment. One of the most potent ways to cut CO2 emissions is through the production and consumption of renewable energy. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to highlight the drivers that, if ambitious environmental policies are implemented, might improve energy security or prevent its deterioration.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a balanced panel data set for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam that covers a period of 30 years (1990–2020). The pooled panel dynamic least squares is used in this study.

Findings

The findings show that renewable energy consumption is positively related to gross domestic product per capita, energy intensity per capita and renewable energy installed capacity. Wherein renewable energy use is inversely related to per capita electricity consumption, CO2 emissions and the use of fossil fuel electricity.

Originality/value

There is a lack of research identifying the factors influencing energy security in the ASEAN region. Therefore, this study focuses on the drivers that influence energy security, which are explained by the proportion of renewable energy in final energy consumption. Without identifying the demand and supply sources of energy, especially electricity production based on renewable energy techniques, it is hard for policymakers to achieve the desired renewable energy-based outcome.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Mohammad A Gharaibeh and Ayman Alkhatatbeh

The continuous increase of energy demands is a critical worldwide matter. Jordan’s household sector accounts for 44% of overall electricity usage annually. This study aims to use…

Abstract

Purpose

The continuous increase of energy demands is a critical worldwide matter. Jordan’s household sector accounts for 44% of overall electricity usage annually. This study aims to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to assess and forecast electricity usage and demands in Jordan’s residential sector.

Design/methodology/approach

Four parameters are evaluated throughout the analysis, namely, population (P), income level (IL), electricity unit price (E$) and fuel unit price (F$). Data on electricity usage and independent factors are gathered from government and literature sources from 1985 to 2020. Several networks are analyzed and optimized for the ANN in terms of root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and coefficient of determination (R2).

Findings

The predictions of this model are validated and compared with literature-reported models. The results of this investigation showed that the electricity demand of the Jordanian household sector is mainly driven by the population and the fuel price. Finally, time series analysis approach is incorporated to forecast the electricity demands in Jordan’s residential sector for the next decade.

Originality/value

The paper provides useful recommendations and suggestions for the decision-makers in the country for dynamic planning for future resource policies in the household sector.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

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