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Article
Publication date: 6 June 2008

Christos Floros

The paper's aim is to examine the influence of the Greek political elections on the course of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Using daily data from the ASE General Price Index…

1221

Abstract

Purpose

The paper's aim is to examine the influence of the Greek political elections on the course of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Using daily data from the ASE General Price Index, it seeks to empirically examine the effect of political elections (Parliamentary and European elections) on the course of the ASE over the period 1996‐2002.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the relationship between Greek political elections and ASE using ordinary least squares (OLS) models. It concentrates on the pre‐election and the post‐election periods of the last decade. Daily closing prices of the General ASE index are used for the period 1996‐2002.

Findings

The results show that two months prior to the elections index performance increases on average and the mean daily fluctuation decreases. One month before the elections, index performance decreases, the mean daily fluctuation increases and the change of daily exchange value increases on average. During the three‐month post‐election period, there is a considerable increase of index progress. Furthermore, between three and six months after the elections, a decrease in performance is found, while for a collective six months after the elections, there is remarkably positive course. Using a simple OLS model with a dummy variable, it is found that there is a negative effect of the political elections on the course of the ASE. However, this effect is always insignificant.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for traders, investors and political analysts. The findings are strongly recommended to financial managers dealing with Greek stock indices.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper is to provide evidence using data before and after the financial crisis of 1999‐2001 in Greece.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 34 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2005

Satish P. Deshpande and Jacob Joseph

The objective of this research was to examine factors that impact union elections in the trucking sector. Since trucking firms are labor intensive, unions can have an impact on…

147

Abstract

The objective of this research was to examine factors that impact union elections in the trucking sector. Since trucking firms are labor intensive, unions can have an impact on the cost of doing business and competitiveness. One hundred and ninety‐nine union elections conducted by the National Labor Relations Board in trucking firms between January 2001 and December 2002 were examined. Type of union, size of bargaining unit, election delays, and voter turnout significantly impacted union win rates. Type of election, type of state, and type of bargaining unit did not impact union win rates. Implications for managers, educators, and union leaders in trucking are discussed.

Details

International Journal of Commerce and Management, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1056-9219

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 May 2016

Spyridon Repousis

The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of major non-economic events such as the results of five Greek national Parliamentary elections during 1996-2009 on the Greek…

911

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of major non-economic events such as the results of five Greek national Parliamentary elections during 1996-2009 on the Greek banks’ stocks.

Design/methodology/approach

Using daily data from the Athens Stock Exchange, event study methodology and market model, the results of this paper claim that the five Greek national Parliamentary elections during the 1996-2009 period had no statistically significant effect on the Greek banks’ stocks. The results show that cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) were slightly positive or negative for Greek banks’ stocks but not statistically significant at 5 and 10 per cent confidence levels.

Findings

Investors were not surprised and the political information caused no change and no influence on the future and course of the stock market. Expected winning political party was the same as the actual winning political party. Results showed that during pre-event period of 2000 and 2004 Greek national Parliamentary elections, CAARs for Greek banks’ stocks were slightly positive and after the event period were slightly negative but not statistically significant at all periods. During 2007 Greek national Parliamentary elections, the effect of elections changed because CAARs were generally slightly negative during the pre-event period and positive after the event period. Also, non-statistically significant CAARs indicate that there is no evidence that either political party was able to manipulate bank stocks’ prices for election purposes.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper is to provide evidence about effects of national elections to bank stocks’ prices which have important implications for stockbrokers, investors, politicians and political analysts.

Details

Journal of Financial Crime, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-0790

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 December 2023

Eric B. Yiadom, Valentine Tay, Courage E.K. Sefe, Vivian Aku Gbade and Olivia Osei-Manu

The performance of financial markets is significantly influenced by the political environment during general elections. This study investigates the effect of general elections on…

1148

Abstract

Purpose

The performance of financial markets is significantly influenced by the political environment during general elections. This study investigates the effect of general elections on stock market performance in selected African markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Prior studies have been inconsistent in determining whether electioneering events negatively or positively influence stock market performance. The study utilized panel data set with annual observations from 1990 to 2020. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is employed to investigate the effect of electioneering and change in government on key stock market performance indicators, including stock market capitalization, stock market turnover ratio and the value of stock traded.

Findings

The study finds that electioneering activities generally have a positive impact on the performance of the stock market, whereas a change in government has a negative impact. As a result, the study recommends that stakeholders of the stock market remain vigilant and actively monitor electioneering events to devise and implement effective policies aimed at mitigating political risks during general elections. By adopting these measures, investor confidence can be significantly enhanced, fostering a more robust and secure investment environment.

Originality/value

The study investigates a neglected section of the literature by highlighting not only the effect of elections on stock market indicators but also possible change in government during elections.

Details

Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-279X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 May 2023

Godwin Musah, Daniel Domeher and Abubakar Musah

This paper aims to investigate the effect of presidential elections on stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the effect of presidential elections on stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses various criteria to select an appropriate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to estimate the second moment of the return distribution with the inclusion of pre- and post-presidential election dummy variables that capture the effect of presidential elections on stock market volatility.

Findings

The empirical results show that high pre-election uncertainty increases volatility in the Nairobi Stock Exchange, Stock Exchange of Mauritius and the Nigeria Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results show that volatility in stock return is reduced 90 days after an election in Nigeria and South Africa but increases 90 days after elections in Ghana.

Originality/value

Contrary to the previous studies that are conducted in a single country with focus on specific elections, this paper provides a comparative analysis of presidential elections and stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 June 2023

Thanh Cong Nguyen and Thi Linh Tran

This paper examines the political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries using a sample of 91 countries from 1992 to 2019.

1089

Abstract

Purpose

This paper examines the political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries using a sample of 91 countries from 1992 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper employs a pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) model with clustered standard errors at the country level. To address endogeneity issues, the authors also employ a two-step system generalized methods of moments model.

Findings

The authors find clear evidence of political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries. The authors consistently find that incumbents increase total government spending, particularly in economic affairs, public services and social welfare, in the year before an election and the election year. In contrast, they contract spending in the year after an election.

Research limitations/implications

Policymakers should be aware of the political budget cycles during election years. Promoting control of corruption and democracy helps to alleviate the effects of the political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries.

Originality/value

The authors are among the first to explore the political budget cycles in emerging and developing countries by focusing on the total government spending and its main compositions, including expenditures on economic affairs, public services and social welfare. Besides, the authors also explore the conditioning effects of control of corruption, political ideology and democracy.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 25 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 September 2022

Edward Elder, Jennifer Lees-Marshment and Neil Thomas Bendle

This paper aims to identify both the traditional and novel forms of marketing behind New Zealand Prime Minster Jacinda Ardern’s landslide victory in the 2020 New Zealand General…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify both the traditional and novel forms of marketing behind New Zealand Prime Minster Jacinda Ardern’s landslide victory in the 2020 New Zealand General Election during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

This research analysed both qualitative and quantitative data, including over 70 primary sources, the perspectives of practitioners, polling and data from surveys with over 450,000 respondents. The qualitative data was analysed interpretively against established theoretical concepts, whereas the quantitative data was analysed through descriptive statistics.

Findings

This research found that COVID-19 drastically changed what the public prioritised, allowing Ardern and Labour to position themselves as guardians of government stability, while camouflaging previous delivery failures. Labour also used a more emergent market-oriented and “polite” populist political marketing strategy.

Research limitations/implications

While the survey data used is not a perfect sample of the population, it is the largest public opinion survey in New Zealand and, given its convergence with other sources, provides valuable insights into political marketing during a crisis more broadly.

Practical implications

This research reinforces marketing’s most important aspect; the market should drive action. How decision makers respond to the market should depend on the environment. Thus, up-to-date market research becomes even more important during a crisis, as the environment changes rapidly. This leaves prior assumptions obsolete and implies strategy needs to be adaptive. Additionally, greater public attention provides governing leaders with the opportunity to present a more well-rounded leadership image.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research to look at marketing while in government and election campaigning in the context of successful management of a global pandemic.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 56 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 October 2022

Azhar Mohamad

This paper aims to explore the election cycle and financial markets puzzle in a unique emerging market like Malaysia.

328

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the election cycle and financial markets puzzle in a unique emerging market like Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

By employing an event-study methodology and wavelet analyses, the author tests for uncertain information hypothesis by examining the reactions of the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and ringgit surrounding Malaysian general elections, spanning from GE5 (1978) to GE14 (2018). This paper also explores the relationship between KLCI and ringgit.

Findings

While the author does not find support for the uncertain information hypothesis, the author uncovers that KLCI tends to overreact following elections, regardless of the winning coalition. The author also records no relationship between KLCI and ringgit in the short run, but the author observes that ringgit leads KLCI in the long run.

Practical implications

The study’s findings bear implications for investors' disposition in the Malaysian equity market. Investors should square off their positions before the general elections to avoid equity market overreactions and potential losses.

Originality/value

Before Malaysia GE14 (2018) general election, Barisan Nasional carried the reputation as one of the longest-serving ruling coalitions in the world since Malaya independence in 1957. However, the ruling coalition was voted out in GE14 (2018), and the Malaysian equity has since dropped.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 September 2022

Godwin Musah, Daniel Domeher and Joseph Magnus Frimpong

The purpose of this paper is to investigate overconfidence bias and the effect of presidential elections on investor overconfidence bias in sub-Saharan African stock markets.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate overconfidence bias and the effect of presidential elections on investor overconfidence bias in sub-Saharan African stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and its associated impulse response functions to investigate overconfidence bias. Furthermore, we make use of OLS regressions to examine the effect of presidential elections on investor overconfidence bias.

Findings

Investor overconfidence bias is present in the markets of Ghana and Tanzania suggesting that the phenomenon persists in sub–Saharan Africa's small markets. We also find that post-presidential election periods have a dampening effect on investor overconfidence in a country where there is less post-election uncertainty.

Originality/value

Despite the previous studies on investor overconfidence bias in sub-Saharan Africa, this paper to the best of the authors’ knowledge, is the first to investigate investor overconfidence bias in the context of presidential elections.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 September 2008

Hakeem O. Yusuf

This paper aims to examine the growing incidence of judicialisation of politics in Nigeria's democratisation experience against the backdrop of questionable judicial…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the growing incidence of judicialisation of politics in Nigeria's democratisation experience against the backdrop of questionable judicial accountability.

Design/methodology/approach

The article draws on legal and political theory as well as comparative law perspectives.

Findings

The judiciary faces a daunting task in deepening democracy and (re) instituting the rule of law. The formidable challenges derive in part from structural problems within the judiciary, deficient accountability credentials and the complexities of a troubled transition.

Practical implications

Effective judicial mediation of political transition requires a transformed and accountable judiciary.

Originality/value

The article calls attention to the need for judicial accountability as a cardinal and integral part of political transitions.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 50 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

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