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This article offers a review of the literature on regional business cycles (BCs) in emerging economies. The objective is synthesizing the existing studies based on theoretical, empirical and methodological approaches.

The methodological framework includes the following stages: research questions, bibliography location, the selection of articles and the evaluation of the literature, analysis and synthesis, and the reporting and use of results.

The evidence suggests that expansionary phases last longer than recessions'; public expenditure shows a pro-cyclical behavior; and factors such as productive structure and international trade explain the synchronization of regional BCs.

Up until now, there is no research that performs a review of regional BCs in emerging economics.

The paper sets out a conceptualisation of the housing cycle centring on households' desire to upgrade their housing consumption.

The paper begins by studying house price trends and cycles in OECD countries since 2000 to identify housing cycle patterns. It then assesses existing theories partly in relation to these patterns. It then proposes a new conceptualisation of the housing cycle.

The paper finds the central role of supply lags in housing cycles is not warranted. Instead, a demand cycle generated by upgrading desires better explains an initial boom followed by a slow recovery.

The paper challenges existing orthodoxy on housing cycle dynamics and proposes an alternative perspective.

Population ageing will bring economic challenges in the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether increased educational level could mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability, measured as the gap between labour income and consumption.

Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology, the authors decompose labour income and consumption by age and educational level (low, medium and high) and compare obtained age profiles with those calculated conventionally. In addition, using the population projections by age and educational level, the authors project both profiles to 2060 for selected EU countries and assess future economic sustainability.

The results show that the highly educated have a significantly higher surplus for a longer period then those with lower and medium education. Therefore, the improved educational level of individuals will have a substantially positive impact on labour income in the future—on average by about 32% by 2060 for all EU countries included. However, as the better educated also consume more, higher production does not fully translate into improved economic sustainability, but the resulting net effect is still positive at about 19%.

The authors present for the first time an NTA by education for 15 EU countries and show the importance of including education in the analysis of the economic life cycle. The authors also show that increased educational level will mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability in the future.

For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.

This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.

The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.

The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.

This paper aims to explore the impact of cycle superposition on bank liquidity risk under different levels of financial openness so that banks can better manage their liquidity risk. Meanwhile, it can also provide some ideas for banks in other emerging economies to better cope with the shocks of the global financial cycle.

Employing the monthly data of 16 commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2021 and based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model, the authors first examine whether the cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. Subsequently, the authors investigate the impact of different levels of financial openness on cycle superposition amplification. Finally, the shock of the financial cycle of the world's major economies on the liquidity risk of Chinese banks is also empirically analyzed.

Cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. However, there are significant differences under different levels of financial openness. Compared with low financial openness, in the period of high financial openness, the magnifying effect of cycle superposition is strengthened in the short term but obviously weakened in the long run. In addition, the authors' findings also demonstrate that although the United States is the main shock country, the influence of other developed economies, such as Japan and Eurozone countries, cannot be ignored.

Firstly, the cycle superposition index is constructed. Secondly, the authors supplement the literature by providing evidence that the association between cycle superposition and bank liquidity risk also depends on financial openness. Finally, the dominant countries of the global financial cycle have been rejudged.

Business creation is an important measure of real economic activity as it shows the dynamics with which new firms are born, create jobs, move their capital, innovate and compete with old firms. In this sense, this paper aims to analyze the short-term impact of the lockdown policies implemented to stop the spread of the COVID-19 on the creation of new formal firms in Ecuador.

This paper uses a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) design jointly with official administrative real-time data. This data is collected by the supervisory and regulatory institution of formal companies in Ecuador. The authors use real-time data from January 13, 2020, to May 15, 2020. This period allows to use the President’s order of effective lockdown on March 16, 2020, as the exogenous event. This gives 43 working days on each side of the cutoff date on the baseline model.

The authors find: an overall large drop in the creation of new formal firms (−73%) and a decrease in the total amount of initial capital coming from the new formal firms (−40%). Additionally, the results suggest that the negative impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the creation of new formal firms seems not to decrease in the short term. The main conclusion is that lockdown policies have a negative impact on firm creation, a result that is of high policy relevance and can be a tool to design business attraction policies.

The analysis is carried out in a short period because on May18, 2020, a new policy was applied in Ecuador that allowed firms to be created more quickly, with 1 USD of capital, and 1 shareholder, among other benefits, and this may affect the outcomes analyzed in this document, so extending the analysis of the impact of the lockdown to a longer period could result in biased results due to this policy. Additionally, studying daily sales would be of the utmost importance; however, these data are not found in the database of the supervising institution.

This study contributes to the empirical literature and the policy debate in various aspects. First, it is important to generate facilities for the creation of new formal firms, from the reduction of days it takes to create one (using technology as a support in this matter) to the decrease of the minimum capital to formalize a company. Second, improve the business conditions of the new formal firms that were born during the pandemic, but also that these conditions create stimulus for the creation of new companies. Third, the authors show that induced-lockdown policies have a negative impact on the creation of new formal firms and the total amount of initial capital from new formal firms; this effect could be a full-blown recession if governments do not apply mechanisms to revert this situation that could be a drag on the economy.

This paper opens the debate on the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on the creation of new formal firms; therefore, future research could study the impact in a broader time window to analyze medium and long-run effects, but also in different economic sectors and in the effects on firm bankruptcy, which added to an analysis of job loss, will show a total effect of damage in the economy.

Government spending plays a crucial role in fiscal policy in any country, both as a tool for implementing individual government policies and as a possible instrument for mitigating uneven economic developments and economic shocks. This chapter provides direct empirical evidence on the development and structure of general government expenditure and its relationship with real economic growth in Czechia and the European Union countries. Compared to theoretical recommendations, general government expenditure has not been used as a stabiliser in Czechia and EU countries and has been observed to be pro-cyclical in the period under review. Granger causality analysis identified the direction of causality between the macroeconomic variables analysed and found that in most cases economic growth came first, followed by government spending.

This paper investigates the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria after controlling for the quality of the legal system, size of central bank asset, banking sector cost efficiency and bank insolvency risk.

The authors employ the generalised method of moments (GMM) regression methodology to estimate the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on two measures of economic growth in Nigeria.

The abnormal increase in credit supply has a significant effect on economic growth. Abnormal increase in credit supply increases real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The abnormal increase in credit supply decreases real GDP per capita during the global financial crisis. The abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria. In contrast, the abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant negative effect on real GDP growth when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria.

The abnormal increase in credit supply is ineffective in increasing GDP per capita during crisis years. Policymakers should be cautious in pressuring financial institutions to release an abnormally large amount of credit into the economy particularly during financial crises. Rather, policymakers should encourage financial institutions to supply credit in a sustained manner – not in an abnormal manner –and in a way that supports growth.

The present study contributes to the literature by analysing the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in a developing country context.

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China.

This article introduces the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China into a comprehensive global forecasting model, analyzing the impact of liquidity management in G3 economies on nine key macroeconomic variables in China.

The findings reveal that the liquidity management strategies employed by major economies do exert a certain influence on China's major macroeconomic variables. Different types of liquidity shocks elicit varying effects. Monetary shocks exhibit the strongest instantaneous impact, while credit conditions and policy rate shocks contribute more significantly to China's long-term macroeconomic fluctuations. However, no single shock stands out as the dominant factor.

This paper attempts to expand the GPM model developed by the International Monetary Fund and build a GPM4 model including China, the United States of America, the Eurozone and Japan. For the first time, the GPM model was used to analyze the spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies on China's macroeconomy and revealed the impact of non-price factors such as credit conditions on China's macroeconomic variables.

The purpose of this paper is to be the first empirical article to provide necessary standard deviation inputs for adoption in probabilistic prognostications of hotel revenues and expenses, i.e. prognostications that consider risk. Commonly accepted methodologies to develop hotel financial projections resulting in point estimates of upcoming performance have been perceived as egregiously insufficient because they do not consider risk in lodging investments. Previous research has recommended the use of probabilistic methodologies to address this concern, and it has been recommended that analysts use Monte Carlo simulation. This methodology requires the estimation of standard deviations of specific, future hotel revenue and expense items, and this paper provides such inputs based on a large sample of actual, recent data.

This study provides actual standard deviations using a sample of recent hotel profit and loss (P&L) statements for over 3,000 hotels (Over 19,000 P&L statements) to provide analysts with empirically-supported standard deviations that may be applied to Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI) hotel revenues and expenses in hotel financial (revenue and expense) prognostications.

Findings are presented for standard deviations based on typical line items as defined in the USALI, and these findings may be used by practitioners as inputs for hotel financial projections. Findings also include that hotel revenue items generally have higher standard deviations than expense items. Findings are presented in detail in the manuscript, including overall findings, as well as findings based on hotel class.

Rather than practitioners adopting standard deviations of hotel revenue and expense line items based on guesswork or judgment, which is the current “state of the art” in hotel financial projections, this paper provides practitioners with actual standard deviations which may be adopted in probabilistic prognostications of hotel revenues and expenses.

This paper may be the first to provide practitioners with actual standard deviations, based on typical USALI line items, for adoption in probabilistic prognostications of hotel revenues and expenses.