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This study examines potential causal interactions between a dominant economy and its trading partners, with the view of verifying surmised economic contagion effects traditionally presumed to emanate from dominant economies toward trading partners.

The study used the Toda–Yamamoto Wald test approach to bi-variate causality analysis.

This study verified the existence of the economic contagion phenomenon; Estimated empirical evidence failed to fully support the presumption that such contagion effects mostly emanates from dominant economies toward trading partners, all things being equal. For instance, although this study found significant economic contagion effects emanating from the US economy toward the Chinese economy, the authors also detected six different uni-directional causal interactions with the direction of causality emanating from trading partners toward the US economy.

The uniqueness of this study stems not from its verification of the economic contagion phenomenon using equity market-related economic uncertainty as the potential contagion. This study fills a gap in the present literature by focusing on the happenings in the equity market as the potential candidate of the economic contagion phenomenon between a dominant economy and its key trading partners.

The innovations in fundamentals coupled with noise traders induce co-movement in diverse markets. This co-movement in equity markets which is evidenced higher during the turmoil period influences economic fundamentals of a country dissimilar in nature. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether economic fundamentals or investors’ behavior attributable to disturbances across the world are the rationale behind the crisis transmission, and thereby distinguish fundamental-based contagion from investor-induced contagion.

Initially, the study investigates the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and stock returns on crisis occurrence using panel probit estimates. Additionally, ordinary least squares estimates controlling the influence of fundamentals on domestic return capture the discrete country effect measuring the influence of domestic as well as foreign economic fundamentals along with foreign returns on the domestic stock index.

The empirical results reveal that foreign country stock index returns are having a significant influence on domestic returns besides a prominent role in crisis occurrence. The binary probit model confirmed the influence of both macroeconomic factors and foreign returns in crisis occurrence. The OLS estimates found evidence for investor-induced contagion in the crisis period where the effects of economic fundamentals are small in comparison to foreign market returns that are mainly dominant in pre- and post-crisis period.

The propagation of crisis from one market to other would enable the policy makers to make clear regulations at right time to control for the crisis in future. The results can help the policy makers as well as investors in reducing the impact of the crisis in future by clearly monitoring the behavior of the factors under study.

The current study addresses the role of macro fundamentals and investors influence in crisis propagation. Adopting subprime crisis of 2008-2009 as a reference point and separating the sample period into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period, the study explains how badly the other 30 markets impacted the crisis that emerged in the USA.

In this paper, we search to evaluate the systemic risk of the Moroccan banking sector. Indeed, we concentrate on the analysis and the evaluation on transverse dimension of the systemic. From this point of view, two approaches were used. First is based on the estimate on value at risk conditional allowing to measure the systemic importance of each banking institution. In addition, the second approach uses the heteroscedasticity models in order to consider the conditional correlations, making it possible, to measure the dependence between the Moroccan banks and with the whole of the financial system. The results obtained with through these two approaches confirm that ATW, BMCI and the BMCE are the most systemic banks in Moroccan banking system and who can initiate a systemic crisis. On another register and by using the conditional correlations of each bank we built an index of systemic risk. Moreover, a macrofinancial model was developed, connecting the index of the systemic risk and the principal macroeconomic variables. This model affirmed that the contagion dimension of systemic risk is procyclical.

The purpose of this paper is to obtain a comprehensive structure of past empirical studies on financial contagion which can provide the present growth and future scope of research work on the field of contagion analysis.

Present study identifies 151 empirical studies on financial contagion and summarises all the studies on the basis of tools and methodology used, year of the studies, origin of the studies, sample period and sample countries taken, studies undertaken on the basis of different crisis period and markets considered and finally sources of the studies.

The results of the analysis show that the empirical studies on contagion increased continuously over the past five years. Higher order test of contagion with more number of sample countries may provide more accurate picture on financial contagion.

This paper collects, classifies and summarises past empirical studies on financial contagion and provides valuable conclusion on present growth and future scope of studies on financial contagion. The information given in this paper can be helpful for future researchers and academicians on this particular field; the summary of the conclusion (from past reviews) may be helpful for the policy makers for asset allocation and risk management.

This paper aims to test whether the latest global financial crisis propagated contagiously from the USA to the rest of the world.

If the reason of the propagation of a crisis is a normal time interdependence with the crisis origin country due to real linkages, the spread of crisis can be limited by implementing well-defined preventive policies. On the other hand, if a crisis propagates because of the speculative attacks or irrational behaviors, the “national policymakers will face difficulties in protecting their markets from such a crisis” (Kleimeier et al., 2003, p. 2). Therefore, separation of contagion and interdependence may provide crucial insights for policymakers to implement appropriate policies to prevent and/or stop the financial crisis. Hence, this paper compares the heteroscedasticity-corrected conditional correlations and dynamic conditional correlations in the tranquil and shock periods.

The findings were quite straightforward and consistent for both Forbes and Rigobon heteroscedasticity correction technique and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model. The Forbes and Rigobon technique failed to reject the null of no contagion for 25 countries in our data sample, while the DCC model failed to reject the null of no contagion for 21 countries. While heteroscedasticity-corrected correlation technique confirmed the presence of a contagion for six countries, the DCC technique confirmed the presence of a contagion for ten countries.

This study particularly investigates whether the subprime mortgage crisis spilled over contagiously to the rest of the world. To investigate whether there is a significant increase in the cross-market correlations between the crisis origin country, the USA and the rest of the world markets during the latest financial crisis, both heteroscedasticity-corrected correlation technique and DCC model are used.Therefore, this study possibly contributes well to the literature using a large country set and conducting the analysis from different angles for important properties.

Anticipating mergers and acquisitions (M&A) helps executives and investors to design their firms’ strategies and decide on their investments. However, a review of the literature shows that we know relatively little about the determinants of M&A activity, and that former research often falls short of theoretical foundations. Hence the question: in what conditions can we make accurate practical predictions of M&A activity? Relying on neo-institutional theory, we suggest that M&A activity gains from being predicted at national level and that its determinants tend to depend on the country under scrutiny. We also draw on economic contagion theory pertaining to linkages between national economies to identify possible foreign institutional influences on a country's M&A activity. We tested our framework in three countries, the United States, the UK, and Japan, with a prediction model based on the Kalman filter that is rarely used in the field of international business. Our findings broadly corroborate our hypotheses, show the relevance of neo-institutional theory for studying the topic, and confirm that accurate practical predictions of M&A activity can be made at national level.

The purpose of this paper is to consider whether asymmetric information about correlations between assets can induce financial contagion. Contagion, unjustified by fundamentals, would arise if participants react in one market to uninformative trades in the other market that actually convey no relevant information. The authors also consider whether the market accurately disseminates insider information about fundamental value correlations when such information is indeed present.

The authors employ experimental asset markets to answer the research questions. The experimental markets allow participants to simultaneously trade two assets for multiple rounds. In each round, a shock occurs, which either have an idiosyncratic effect on the shocked asset, or a systematic effect on both assets. Half of the time, there exist insiders who know the true nature of the shock and how it affects the value of the other asset. The other half of the time, no agent knows whether there is a correlation between the assets. In such cases, there is the potential for the appearance of information mirages. Uninformed traders, in either condition, do not know whether or not there exist insiders, but can try to infer this from the market activity they observe.

The results of the experiment show that when inside information about the nature of the correlation between assets does exist, it is readily disseminated in the form of market prices. However, when there is no private information (PI), mirages are common, demonstrating that financial contagion can arise in the absence of any fundamental relationship between assets. An analysis of individual behavior suggests that some unprofitable decisions appear to be related to an aversion to complex distributions of lottery payoffs.

The study focusses on one of the triggers of unjustified financial contagion, namely, asymmetric information. The authors have studied financial contagion in a controlled experimental setting where the authors can carefully control information, and specify the fundamental interdependence between assets traded in different markets.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the regime shifts and stock market volatility in the stock market returns of seven emerging economies popularly called as “BRIICKS” which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Korea and South Africa, over the period from February 1996 to January 2012 by applying Markov regime switching (MS) in mean-variance model.

The authors apply MS model developed by Hamilton (1989) using its mean-variance switching framework on the monthly returns data of BRIICKS stock markets. Further, the estimated probabilities along with variances have been used to calculate the time-varying volatility. The authors also examine market synchronization and portfolio diversification possibilities in sample markets by calculating the Logit transformation based cross-market correlations and Sharpe ratios.

The applied model finds two regimes in each of these markets. The estimated results also helped in formulating the asset allocation strategies based on market synchronization and Sharpe ratio. The results suggest that BRIICKS is not a homogeneous asset class and each market should be independently evaluated in terms of its regime-switching behavior, volatility persistence and level of synchronization with other emerging markets. The study finally concludes that Russia, India and China as the best assets to invest within this emerging market basket which can be pooled with a mature market portfolio to achieve further benefits of risk diversification.

The study does not provide macroeconomic and financial explanations of the observed differences in dynamics among sample emerging stock markets. The study does not examine these markets under multivariate framework.

The results highlight the role of regime shifts and stock market volatility in the asset allocation and risk management. This study has important implications for international asset allocation and stock market regulation by way of identifying and recognizing the differences on regimes and on the dynamics of the swings which can be very useful in the field of portfolio and public financial management.

The paper is novel in employing tests of MS under mean-variance framework to examine the regime shifts and volatility switching behavior in seven promising BRIICKS stock market. Further, using MS model, the authors analyze the duration (persistence) of each identified regime across sample markets. The empirical results of MS model have been used for making portfolio allocation strategies and also examine the synchronization across markets. All these aspects of stock market regime have been largely ignored by the existing studies in emerging market context particularly the BRIICKS markets.

The current paper contributes to the vigorous debate about policies and regulations that would shield financial markets' participants from future events of the financial turmoil. In doing so, the paper aims to broaden the picture of the financial crisis contagion and set it against the background of contemporary European markets. The main purpose of this paper is to present novel aspects of the financial crisis contagion, hence clarifying the contagion theory that still remains confusing and ambiguous for both the academics and financial markets' practitioners.

The paper builds on a simulation model for the financial crisis contagion that is rooted in the qualitative query and backed by semi‐structured interviews with financial markets' participants who possess extensive knowledge about the functioning of European markets and their interconnectedness. With this in mind, the current paper adopts an international investor's perspective on implications that stem from the linkages between European financial markets, flawed regulations and the absence of cross‐border monitoring of the financial crisis contagion.

The findings constitute practical insights into the issues of the financial crisis contagion, hence providing useful advice on policies and regulations that could manage the cross‐market transmission of the financial turmoil and shield financial markets' participants from the episodes of financial crises in the future. The findings reported in this paper also present novel aspects of the contagion processes across the contemporary and systemically important financial markets in Europe.

The practical implications of the current paper gain in significance as the nascent financial crisis sparked off vigorous debate about the need for implementing regulations that would prevent financial markets' participants from the future episodes of global financial crises. At this point, the findings reported in the current paper might be of interest for policy makers and markets' authorities. In addition, the paper attempts to deliver findings that practitioners associated with the contemporary European financial markets would benefit from by understanding the linkages between these markets and ways the financial contagion spreads. Previously, little knowledge of ways financial crises spread across markets caused substantial losses that were incurred by investors.

The current paper addresses the issues of the financial crisis contagion that belong to the group of the most commonly referenced yet least understood notions in finance. Furthermore, the paper focuses on addressing the recently exposed fragility of financial markets' surveillance and regulations. In doing so, the paper employs a pioneering approach to a simulation of the financial crisis contagion by embarking on a qualitative query rather than empirical data. Henceforth, the limitations of the empirical simulations – experienced in the past studies devoted to investigation of the financial crisis contagion – were ameliorated and the findings presented in the paper became of practical use for the markets' practitioners and policymakers.

An artificial neural network methodology is used to develop a new measure of contagion using exchange rate data from the Asian Crisis of 1997 and beyond. Connection weight changes during retraining of networks used to forecast exchange rates form the basis of this measure. These weight changes are used in obtaining a contribution factor for independent variables used in a forecasting process. Volatilities of contribution factors form the basis of the measure of contagion obtained. These volatilities are statistically validated through a series of simulations where critical values for them are derived. The measures of contagion obtained are then matched to concurrent economic and financial shocks that occurred during the crisis. It is found that there is good correlation between these events and the contagion measures obtained.