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Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management.

A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models.

The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory.

This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

This study aims to analyze the long-run dynamic relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth for developing nations.

This study develops a comprehensive financial inclusion index based on the UNDP methodology for 53 developing nations. The authors use second-generation unit root tests, cointegration techniques and an advanced dynamic common correlated effects estimator model called cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables.

The tests confirm the presence of slope-heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency. The second-generation panel unit root tests show the chosen variables are stationary at first difference. The bootstrap Westerlund cointegration result shows the variables are cointegrated in the long run. The CS-ARDL estimates conclude that financial inclusion positively enhances gross domestic product per capita in selected developing countries. The robustness check through augmented mean group estimation validates the findings.

The study makes three important contributions: first, it constructs a comprehensive financial inclusion index using 10 variables for a panel of 53 developing nations; second, the potential cross-section dependence and slope heterogeneity of panel data have been accounted for by applying the second-generation unit root tests; third, the study uses the dynamic common correlated effects estimator model (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables.

With the rapid low-carbon transformation in China, the industrial approach and labor structure of mining enterprises are undergoing constant changes, leading to an increasing psychological dilemma faced by coal miners. This study aims to reveal the relationship and mechanism of factors influencing the psychological dilemma of miners, and to provide optimal intervention strategies for the safety and sustainable development of employees and enterprises.

To effectively address the complex issue of the psychological dilemma faced by miners, this study identifies and constructs five-dimensional elements, comprising 20 indicators, that influence psychological dilemmas. The relational mechanism of action of factors influencing psychological dilemma was then elucidated using an integration of interpretive structural modeling and cross-impact matrix multiplication.

Industry dilemma perception is a “direct” factor with dependent attributes. The perceptions of management response and relationship dilemmas are “root” factors with driving attributes. Change adaptation dilemma perception is a “susceptibility” factor with linkage attributes. Work dilemma perception is a “blunt” factor with both dependent and autonomous attributes.

The aforementioned findings offer a critical theoretical and practical foundation for developing systematic and cascading intervention strategies to address the psychological dilemma mining enterprises face, which contributes to advancing a high-quality coal industry and efficient energy development.

This study aims to identify the publication phase, performance and scientific contributions of research papers related to enterprise risk management (ERM) and to visualise the emerging themes in addressing volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA).

The biblioshiny technique based on the bibliometrix R package was used to draw journal papers’ performance and scientific contributions by displaying distinctive features from the bibliometric method used in prior studies. The data was extracted from the Web of Science (WOS) and Scopus databases.

Since the 1990s, ERM publication has gained momentum, and it is generally categorised into four main themes. Studies by Miller (1992) and Bromiley et al. (2015) scored the highest in global and local citations, respectively. However, the Economic Outlook ranked first in quality of publications while the Journal of Risk and Insurance topped in quantity of publications. Collaborative research mainly exists between two authors, and the dynamic number of collaborative networks is evident in the USA.

This study is limited by the filtered keywords used to generate the search on journal papers’ in WOS and Scopus. It is imperative to have more comprehensive and rigorous analytics on ERM research to enable a direction for future research. Finally, ERM implementation better equips firms to mitigate risk in a VUCA environment.

This study attempts to fill a vacuum of ERM literature, specifically in business economics, in addressing VUCA. Moreover, it covers a comprehensive predetermined period of from its inception in 1983 until 2022.

Completing Right-of-Way (ROW) acquisition process on schedule is critical to avoid delays and cost overruns on transportation projects. However, transportation agencies face challenges in accurately forecasting ROW acquisition timelines in the early stage of projects due to complex nature of acquisition process and limited design information. There is a need of improving accuracy of estimating ROW acquisition duration during the early phase of project development and quantitatively identifying risk factors affecting the duration.

The quantitative research methodology used to develop the forecasting model includes an ensemble algorithm based on decision tree and adaptive boosting techniques. A dataset of Georgia Department of Transportation projects held from 2010 to 2019 is utilized to demonstrate building the forecasting model. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify critical drivers of ROW acquisition durations.

The forecasting model developed in this research achieves a high accuracy to predict ROW durations by explaining 74% of the variance in ROW acquisition durations using project features, which is outperforming single regression tree, multiple linear regression and support vector machine. Moreover, number of parcels, average cost estimation per parcel, length of projects, number of condemnations, number of relocations and type of work are found to be influential factors as drivers of ROW acquisition duration.

This research contributes to the state of knowledge in estimating ROW acquisition timeline through (1) developing a novel machine learning model to accurately estimate ROW acquisition timelines, and (2) identifying drivers (i.e. risk factors) of ROW acquisition durations. The findings of this research will provide transportation agencies with insights on how to improve practices in scheduling ROW acquisition process.

This study aims to analyse the intellectual property rights (INPR), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and technological exports of 32 developing and developed countries for the period of 2006–2020.

Diagnostic tests were used to confirm the panel least squares, fixed effect, random effect, feasible general least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares estimator results as well as to increase the robustness.

According to the findings for the developing countries, trademark, patent and industrial design applications, each had a significant positive long-run effect on FDI inflows. In addition, there was a significant positive long-run relationship between patent applications and medium- and high-technology exports. Meanwhile, trademark and industrial design applications had a significant negative long-term effect on medium- and high-technology exports. In developed countries, patent and industrial design applications each have a significant negative long-term on medium- and high-technology exports. Furthermore, patent and trademark applications each had a significant negative long-run effect on FDI inflows.

This study contributes significantly to the focus that host countries evaluate the technology gaps between domestic and foreign investors at different industry levels to select the best INPR rules and innovation process by increasing international cooperation. Furthermore, the host countries should follow the structure–conduct–performance paradigm based on analysis of the market structure, strategic firms and industrial dynamics systems.

The paper underpins an advanced domestic manufacturing that comes with some advanced employment specialization status of individual industries as the key determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) and considers how FDI in the food processing industry in India relates to this focal point.

This paper investigates how inward FDI inflows relate to domestic investment and revival in the industry using Auto Regressive Distributed lags (ARDL) model over the period 2000–2017. The model allows for different specifications to study whether FDI is responsible for the revival or the prior revival induces the FDI.

The results show the lack of proper advanced specialized employment status of the food processing industry. FDI in food processing is mainly guided by exports and imports opportunities and FDI plays no role in the revival of advanced growth in the industry. This finding explains why FDI in the industry is predominantly service sector oriented.

The paper underlines (1) the proper conceptualization of human capital as an important determinant of FDI; (2) reinterpretation of Kaldor's technical progress function that uncovers how employment dynamics embedded in intermediate goods specializations play a key role in supporting a higher pace of investment (and FDI); (3) labor costs' importance should involve not only the wage rate but also the advantages that a specialized employment base and (4) FDI in manufacturing demands a greater policy focus on developing domestic bases of intermediate goods specializations.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Ottoman Empire’s net interest payments and foreign debt were sustainable or not in terms of their burden on budget revenues, using the method of historical econometric analysis.

In this study, the period between 1847 and 1882 of the Ottoman Empire is analyzed for sustainability analysis. Within the framework of the study, unit root tests and econometric analysis methods frequently used in the literature were used to analyze the sustainability of public debt. In the econometric analysis, in addition to various unit root tests, current econometric analysis methods, in particular Fourier expansion, were also used.

The results of econometric analyses showed that the burden of interest payments and foreign debt on the budget of the Ottoman state was unsustainable. This situation clearly shows the reason for the official bankruptcy of the Ottoman Empire, which was declared in 1875.

Although this study reveals the bankruptcy process of an important structure such as the Ottoman Empire in the historical process through econometric analyses, it also gives a very important message to today’s states. Accordingly, today’s state policies and decision-making mechanisms should take these results into account and strive to make the burden of public interest payments sustainable. It is believed that the study will shed light on the public finance policies of today’s states by drawing lessons from the collapse process of the Ottoman state.

Unlike the historical assessments in the literature on the decline of the Ottoman Empire, this study presents a cliometric approach by applying current econometric analysis techniques to past historical data. The study explains the unsustainability of the Ottoman Empire’s interest payments and external debt burden in the period under consideration in a way that, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, has not been done before.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

In the context of the digital age, this study aims to investigate the impact of citizens' digital participation on the scientific and democratic decision-making processes of the government. Specifically, the authors focus on the factors influencing citizens' digital participation, with a particular emphasis on their digital skills.

Exploring the influence of citizens' digital skills on their digital participation is of great practical significance for eliminating the digital divide and for promoting a life characterized by enriched digital interactions with the public. This study selected the social consciousness survey database of Chinese netizens in 2017, used ordered Probit and OLS models, and comprehensively used the instrumental variable method (IV), causal stepwise regression method and bootstrap method to empirically verify and construct a mechanism model of the influence of digital skills on citizens' digital participation.

The empirical findings indicate a noteworthy positive association between citizens' proficiency in digital skills and their active engagement in digital activities. This relationship is positively mediated by factors such as political interest and attention to social issues, underscoring their role in encouraging greater digital participation. Conversely, national identity exhibits a counteractive influence on this mechanism, potentially discouraging digital engagement. Notably, the impact of digital skill mastery on digital participation is more pronounced among non-elderly individuals and those residing in metropolitan areas, highlighting the significance of demographic characteristics in this context.

These research results can help the government and other organizations make better decisions and facilitate improvement of citizens' digital participation by promoting their mastery of digital skills.