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In the context of competing theoretical economic–econometric models and corresponding estimators, we demonstrate a semiparametric combining estimator that, under quadratic loss, has superior risk performance. The method eliminates the need for pretesting to decide between members of the relevant family of econometric models and demonstrates, under quadratic loss, the nonoptimality of the conventional pretest estimator. First-order asymptotic properties of the combined estimator are demonstrated. A sampling study is used to illustrate finite sample performance over a range of econometric model sampling designs that includes performance relative to a Hausman-type model selection pretest estimator. An important empirical problem from the causal effects literature is analyzed to indicate the applicability and econometric implications of the methodology. This combining estimation and inference framework can be extended to a range of models and corresponding estimators. The combining estimator is novel in that it provides directly minimum quadratic loss solutions.

Advances in Econometrics is a series of research volumes first published in 1982 by JAI Press. The authors present an update to the history of the Advances in Econometrics series. The initial history, published in 2012 for the 30th Anniversary Volume, describes key events in the history of the series and provides information about key authors and contributors to Advances in Econometrics. The authors update the original history and discuss significant changes that have occurred since 2012. These changes include the addition of five new Senior Co-Editors, seven new AIE Fellows, an expansion of the AIE conferences throughout the United States and abroad, and the increase in the number of citations for the series from 7,473 in 2012 to over 25,000 by 2022.

This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according to a battery of parametric and non-parametric test statistics to measure their performance in one- and four-step ahead forecasts of quarterly data. Using genetic-neural fuzzy systems we find the computational approach superior to some degree and show how to combine both techniques successfully.

The experiential nature of travel and tourism services has popularized the importance of electronic word-of-mouth (EWOM) among potential customers. EWOM has a significant influence on hotel booking intention of customers as they tend to trust EWOM more than the messages spread by marketers. Amid abundant reviews available online, it becomes difficult for travelers to identify the most significant ones. This questions the credibility of reviewers as various online businesses allow reviewers to post their feedback using nickname or email address rather than using real name, photo or other personal information. Therefore, this study aims to determine the factors leading to reviewer credibility.

The paper proposes an econometric model to determine the variables that affect the reviewer’s credibility in the hospitality and tourism sector. The proposed model uses quantifiable variables of reviewers and reviews to estimate reviewer credibility, defined in terms of proportion of number of helpful votes received by a reviewer to the number of total reviews written by him. This covers both aspects of source credibility i.e. trustworthiness and expertness. The authors have used the data set of TripAdvisor.com to validate the models.

Regression analysis significantly validated the econometric models proposed here. To check the predictive efficiency of the models, predictive modeling using five commonly used classifiers such as random forest (RF), linear discriminant analysis, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree and support vector machine is performed. RF gave the best accuracy for the overall model.

The findings of this research paper suggest various implications for hoteliers and managers to help retain credible reviewers in the online travel community. This will help them to achieve long term relationships with the clients and increase their trust in the brand.

To the best of authors’ knowledge, this study performs an econometric modeling approach to find determinants of reviewer credibility, not conducted in previous studies. Moreover, the study contracts from earlier works by considering it to be an endogenous variable, rather than an exogenous one.

This study aims to address the issue of prediction of inflation differences for an economy that considers either fixing its exchange rate or joining a currency union. In this setting, individual countries have limited control over their inflation, and anticipating the possible course of domestic inflation relative to inflation abroad becomes an important input in policy-making. In this context, the author compares simple forecast heuristics and econometric modeling.

The study compares two basically different approaches. The first approach of forecasting consists of simple heuristics. Various heuristics are considered that differ with respect to the economic reasoning that goes into quantifying the forecast rules. The simplest such forecasting heuristic suggests that the average over all available observations of inflation differentials should be taken as a predictor for the future. Bringing more economic insight to bear suggests a further heuristic according to which historical inflation differentials should be adjusted for changes in the nominal exchange rate. A further variant of this approach suggests that a forecast should exclusively rely on data from earlier times under a pegged exchange rate. A fundamentally different approach to prediction builds on dynamic econometric models estimated by using all available historical data independent of the currency regime.

The author studies three small member countries of the Eurozone, i.e. Finland, Luxembourg and Portugal. For the evaluation of the various forecasting strategies, he performs out-of-sample predictions over a horizon of five years. The comparison of the four different forecasting strategies documents that the variant of the forecast heuristic that draws on data from earlier experiences under fixed exchange rates performs better than the forecast based on the estimated econometric model.

The findings of this study provide helpful guidelines for countries considering either joining a currency union or fixing their exchange rate. The author shows that a simple forecasting heuristic gives sound advice for assessing the likely course of inflation.

This study describes how economic theory can guide the selection of historical data for assessing likely future developments. The analysis shows that using a simple heuristic based on historical analogy can lead to better forecasts than the analytically more sophisticated approach of econometric modeling.

This study aims to provide one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis.

Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) country indices as proxies for national stock markets, the study conducts a battery of econometric tests in assessing weak-form market efficiency for the developed markets.

The inferential outcomes are consistent among the different tests. Specifically, the study finds that the majority of developed markets are weak-form efficient while the USA is the sole equity market to be commonly diagnosed as weak-form inefficient across the different tests when using full period data spanning the January 2008-November 2011 period. However, when basing the analysis on one-year subsamples over the identical time period, this study fails to reject weak-form market efficiency for all of the developed markets and presents evidence consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis as described by Urquhart and Hudson (2013). When applying technical analysis for the case of the USA over the full study period, the results indicate that the return predictabilities can be exploited for some horizon of variable length moving average (VMA) trading rules.

This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis using an extended set of econometric tests. The study contributes to the existing body of empirical research that formally assesses the impact of a financial crisis on stock market efficiency and underlines the significance and relevance of examining market efficiency through subsample analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the specification of hedonic pricing models can be improved by using insights generated from qualitative research. In doing so, it seeks to address one of the main problems in the specification of hedonic models, namely that theory yields little guidance in the selection of the characteristics that should be included on the right-hand side.

Building on the behavioural tradition in real estate research, this paper introduces a research approach that integrates insights from qualitative analysis in an econometric model of land values. The empirical segment explores the way in which asking prices of building plots for industrial purposes are determined in The Netherlands. It draws from interviews with municipal land developers, who dominate supply in this market. The information secured during these interviews relates to the characteristics considered important and the kind of information used in the valuation process. Based on these qualitative data, an econometric model is developed and estimated.

The estimation results confirm qualitative evidence that the typical developer considers only a limited number of features of the land in the valuation process and that the primary source of information in setting asking prices relates to the prices charged in neighbouring municipalities.

This paper represents a novel attempt to examine the determination of land and property values by merging qualitative and quantitative, econometric analyses.

Considers an application of adaptive control policy to dynamic input‐output systems of Japanese large‐scale industrial (primary, secondary and tertiary) sectors by neural networks. The adaptive control policy has three steps. The first is to obtain the optimal control policy such that the minimization of the weighted sum of the squared deviation between the actual targets and the desired subject to econometric models is achieved. The second is to determine the optimal outputs for each industrial sector through dynamic input‐output system under the optimal control policies. The third is to obtain the network outputs by neural network algorithm through the controlled output equations derived from DIO system. We consider what affects the outputs if the optimal control policy was adopted, and how the change of industrial structure has occurred after the bubble burst in 1990s in Japan during 1985 through 1993, and we predict the future of the industries up to 2010 by using DIO linked to the final demand econometric models of the Japanese industrial sectors by simulation.

Critics of planning frequently complain that the profession fails to read the near‐term or long‐term future correctly. Does the answer lie in better econometric modeling? Some planners have been “sold” econometrics as the best available crystal ball for predicting the trends of tomorrow and the next decade. To discover how this science is adapting to real‐world needs and how it views the economy—past, passing, and to come—Planning Review spoke with Chase Econo‐metrics' long‐range forecasting specialist, Edward A. Friedman. His message is that better econometric models are only part of the solution. It is equally important to be able to judge the models and their predictions for what they actually can offer and what they cannot.

This study attempts to provide a systematic theoretical analysis of the portfolio selection approach to the determination of inter‐regional and international capital flows, and to identify the implications of this analysis for the appropriate specification of short‐run econometric models of the foreign exchange market.