Search results

This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market.

The paper uses a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows the isolation of the effects of earthquake risk and explores the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods – one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region.

The analysis shows that there are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of a recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values.

The robustness of the models would be enhanced by the addition of further spatial levels and larger data sets.

The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments.

The application of these methods is intended to inform a fairer approach to setting insurance premiums and a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to mitigate potential earthquake risk.

The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.

The aim of this paper is to link earthquake probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment with the decision‐making process in order to implement policies, plans, and procedures to prevent or reduce human and monetary losses.

This study suggests an integrated framework for earthquake consequences management. The framework consists of an earthquake consequences model, value analysis, and socio‐economic analysis, as well as dynamic integration for implementing strategies, policies, and plans.

The developed integrated framework for earthquake consequences management could be used for a study area, especially in developing countries in which human and capital resources are limited.

There is a need to have different case studies to demonstrate how the integrated framework for earthquake consequence management could reduce human and monetary losses due to earthquakes for a study area.

It is important to consider earthquake risks as part of strategic planning for societies that are vulnerable to future earthquakes.

There are several researches which addressed earthquake probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment without linking the decision‐making process in order to implement policies, plans, and procedures to prevent or reduce human and monetary losses. This paper aims to address this issue.

This study suggests an integrated framework for earthquake consequences management. The framework consists of earthquake consequences model, value analysis, and socio‐economic analysis, as well as dynamic integration for implementing strategies, policies, and plans.

The developed integrated framework for earthquakes consequences management could be used for a study area especially in developing countries in which human and capital resources are limited.

There is a need to have different case studies to demonstrate how the integrated framework for earthquake consequence management could reduce human and monetary losses due to earthquakes for a study area.

It is important to consider earthquake risks as part of strategic planning for societies that are vulnerable to future earthquakes.

The development of multi-hazard risk assessment frameworks has gained momentum in the recent past. Nevertheless, the common practice with openly available risk data sets, such as the ones derived from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Global Risk Model, has been to assess risk individually for each peril and afterwards aggregate, when possible, the results. Although this approach is sufficient for perils that do not have any interaction between them, for the cases where such interaction exists, and losses can be assumed to occur simultaneously, there may be underestimation of losses. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

This paper summarizes a methodology to integrate simultaneous losses caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, with a peril-agnostic approach that can be expanded to other hazards. The methodology is applied in two relevant locations in Latin America, Acapulco (Mexico) and Callao (Peru), considering in each case building by building exposure databases with portfolios of different characteristics, where the results obtained with the proposed approach are compared against those obtained after the direct aggregation of individual losses.

The fully probabilistic risk assessment framework used herein is the same of the global risk model but applied at a much higher resolution level of the hazard and exposure data sets, showing its scalability characteristics and the opportunities to refine certain inputs to move forward into decision-making activities related to disaster risk management and reduction.

This paper applies for the first time the proposed methodology in a high-resolution multi-hazard risk assessment for earthquake and tsunami in two major coastal cities in Latin America.

To reduce financial and human losses, managing risks associated with earthquakes is essential in practice. However, in using common risk management methods, experts are often faced with ambiguities that can create profound challenges for risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a logical and straightforward risk assessment model to provide scientific and accurate answers to complex problems. This study aims to recommend an innovative combined method based on the probability-impact (P-I) approach and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory to identify and prioritize the essential earthquake risks associated with worn-out urban fabrics in the context of Iran.

The opinions of 15 experts in the fields of civil engineering and urban construction were gathered during brainstorming sessions. These brainstorming sessions were conducted to determine the probability of risks and the effect of identified risks. After calculating the severity of risks using the P-I approach and converting them to intuitionistic fuzzy sets, the risks were measured and prioritized based on their individual scores.

The study results indicated that risk of damage due to buildings’ age and flooding risk had the highest and lowest priorities in causes of financial damage, respectively. Furthermore, the risk of damage due to building quality (demolition) and building age was the most important. The risk of flooding and damage to communication networks has the lowest importance among causes of fatalities in worn-out urban fabrics.

The study findings and recommendations can be served as a policy and consultative instrument for the relevant stakeholders in the area of urban management.

In Turkey, the process of squatterisation can best be traced to the increase in its urban population from 24 percent in 1950 to 59 percent in 2000. In the periods up to the present, the prevention, improvement and renewal of squatter settlements were not achieved within the existing legal framework and planning structure; and their urban quality has been degraded.

The aim of this article is to discuss the upgrading of squatter settlements through a mitigation process considering the possibility of an earthquake in Istanbul. The target groups of this upgrading study are the squatter dwellers and their settlements.

In getting prepared for the predicted big Istanbul earthquake, the improvement of squatter housing is extremely important for the existing urban housing stock. With this aim, the undesirable consequences of a possible natural disaster in various squatter settlements in Istanbul were scrutinised. Also, earthquake-forecasting reports were analysed in conjunction with squatter maps to extract data for the purpose of upgrading squatter settlements through rehabilitation, reconstruction and reinforcement at the urban and architectural levels with amelioration of damage after an earthquake. In the article, a model is proposed which includes measures to transform squatter zones into healthy areas by means of simple reinforcement and contemporary solutions.

This article is based on a research project requested and sponsored by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality during 2003-2004.

Reconstruction processes after an earthquake require estimating repair costs to decide on whether to repair or rebuild. This requires an accurate post-earthquake cost estimation tool. Currently, there are no post-earthquake loss estimation models to estimate repair costs accurately. There are loss assessment tools available, namely, HAZUS, performance assessment calculation tool (PACT), seismic performance and loss assessment tool (SLAT) and seismic performance prediction tool, which have not been specifically used for post-earthquake repair cost estimation. This paper aims to focus on identifying factors that need to be considered when upgrading these tools for post-earthquake repair cost estimation.

The research was conducted as an exploratory study using a literature review, document analysis of the PACT, SLAT and HAZUS software and 18 semi-structured interviews.

The research identified information sources available for estimation and factors to be considered when developing estimations based on the information sources.

The data was collected from professionals who were involved mostly in housing repair work in New Zealand. Therefore, impact of these repair work factors might vary in other forms of structures such as civil structures include bridges and the country as a result of varying construction details and standards.

The identified factors will be used to improve the loss estimation tools are such as PACT and HAZUS, as well as to develop a post-earthquake repair cost estimation tool.

Currently, the identified factors impacting post-earthquake damage repair cost estimations are not considered in loss estimation tools. Factors identified in this research will help to develop a more accurate cost estimation tool for post-earthquake repair work.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of building codes in earthquake risk mitigation in Taiwan.

Using probabilistic risk analysis tools with available data, this study assesses the exceedance probability of extensive damage limit for general buildings in their 50‐year useful lives. The buildings were classified into 15 categories according to their construction materials and building height. Then, the effects of construction materials, building height and construction years are detected.

The exceedance probabilities of extensive damage limit for all of the investigated buildings in their 50‐year useful lives are on the order of 10⁻². The effect of construction materials and building height on seismic risk of buildings is decreasing with the development of a seismic design code. Significant discrepancy of seismic risk still exists among some buildings.

Seismic risk analysis requires quite restrictive statistical idealizations for the relevant probabilistic terms in the mathematical formulation. The problem of imperfect simplification and lack of sufficient empirical data has shown the research needs for improvements of seismic risk assessment. The questions of what constitutes acceptable risk for various performance levels and how safe is safe enough remain context‐specific.

Although probabilistic risk analysis provides a tool for quantifying the probability of structural failure, current earthquake‐resistant design procedures do not relate performance levels to probability. The paper explores some probability information for current earthquake‐resistant design for general buildings during their 50‐year useful lives and the information may provide some valuable information for future code calibration.

This study aims to present a novel Genetic Algorithm-Based Design Model (GABDM) to provide reduced-risk areas, namely, a “safe footprint,” in interior spaces during earthquakes. This study focuses on housing interiors as the space where inhabitants spend most of their daily lives.

The GABDM uses the genetic algorithm as a method, the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II algorithm, and the Wallacei X evolutionary optimization engine. The model setup, including inputs, constraints, operations and fitness functions, is presented, as is the algorithmic model’s running procedure. Following the development phase, GABDM is tested with a sample housing interior designed by the authors based on the literature related to earthquake risk in interiors. The implementation section is organized to include two case studies.

The implementation of GABDM resulted in optimal “safe footprint” solutions for both case studies. However, the results show that the fitness functions achieved in Case Study 1 differed from those achieved in Case Study 2. Furthermore, Case Study 2 has generated more successful (higher ranking) “safe footprint” alternatives with its proposed furniture system.

This study presents an original approach to dealing with earthquake risks in the context of interior design, as well as the development of a design model (GABDM) that uses a generative design method to reduce earthquake risks in interior spaces. By introducing the concept of a “safe footprint,” GABDM contributes explicitly to the prevention of earthquake risk. GABDM is adaptable to other architectural typologies that involve footprint and furniture relationships.

Recent earthquake-induced liquefaction events and associated losses have increased researchers’ interest into liquefaction risk reduction interventions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there was no scholarly literature related to an economic appraisal of these risk reduction interventions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the issues in applying cost–benefit analysis (CBA) principles to the evaluation of technical mitigations to reduce earthquake-induced liquefaction risk.

CBA has been substantially used for risk mitigation option appraisal for a number of hazard threats. Previous literature in the form of systematic reviews, individual research and case studies, together with liquefaction risk and loss modelling literature, was used to develop a theoretical model of CBA for earthquake-induced liquefaction mitigation interventions. The model was tested using a scenario in a two-day workshop.

Because liquefaction risk reduction techniques are relatively new, there is limited damage modelling and cost data available for use within CBAs. As such end users need to make significant assumptions when linking the results of technical investigations of damage to built-asset performance and probabilistic loss modelling resulting in many potential interventions being not cost-effective for low-impact disasters. This study questions whether a probabilistic approach should really be applied to localised rapid onset events like liquefaction, arguing that a deterministic approach for localised knowledge and context would be a better base for the cost-effectiveness mitigation interventions.

This paper makes an original contribution to literature through a critical review of CBA approaches applied to disaster mitigation interventions. Further, this paper identifies challenges and limitations of applying probabilistic based CBA models to localised rapid onset disaster events where human losses are minimal and historic data is sparse; challenging researchers to develop new deterministic based approaches that use localised knowledge and context to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation interventions.