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Article
Publication date: 27 June 2008

H. Young Baek, Dong‐Kyoon Kim and Joung W. Kim

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of management earnings forecasts on the level of information asymmetry around subsequent earnings announcement.

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of management earnings forecasts on the level of information asymmetry around subsequent earnings announcement.

Design/methodology/approach

Employing the adverse selection cost method suggested by George et al., the paper compares for each sample firm the adverse selection cost around earnings announcement in forecasting years with that in non‐forecasting years.

Findings

Consistent with Diamond and Verrecchia is the finding that the earnings announcement in non‐forecasting years decreases information asymmetry during a three‐day announcement period and increases in a post‐announcement period up to seven days. No significant change in information asymmetry between pre‐ and post‐announcement periods when firms released a “good” news forecast is found. The firms that previously released a “bad” news forecast experience a significantly lower information asymmetry than those that did not forecast during announcement or post‐announcement days, and experience a decrease in information asymmetry in a five to seven‐day post‐announcement period.

Originality/value

This paper provides the first empirical reports on the different information asymmetry changes around earnings announcements followed by a “good” news management forecast from those followed by a “bad” news forecast.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 June 2023

Chui Zi Ong, Rasidah Mohd-Rashid, Ayesha Anwar and Waqas Mehmood

The main purpose of this study is to examine the disclosure of earnings forecasts in firms' prospectuses to explain investor demands or, in other words, oversubscription rates of…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to examine the disclosure of earnings forecasts in firms' prospectuses to explain investor demands or, in other words, oversubscription rates of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs).

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least squares and robust methods were used to examine cross-sectional data comprising 466 fixed-price IPOs reported for the period from January 2000 to February 2020 on Bursa Malaysia.

Findings

The results showed that IPOs with earnings forecasts obtained higher oversubscription rates than those without earnings forecasts. IPOs with earnings forecasts provide value-relevant signals to prospective investors about the good prospects of firms, resulting in an increase in the demand for IPO shares. For the IPO samples listed during the global financial crisis (GFC) period, IPOs with earnings forecasts had negative impacts on the oversubscription rates. These results were robust to quantile methods and the two-stage least squares method.

Research limitations/implications

The research findings provide fresh information for investors regarding the importance of earnings forecasts as a trustworthy signal of a firm’s quality when making share subscription decisions.

Practical implications

The regulator is advised to encourage issuers to include earnings forecasts in their prospectuses since such forecasts help to increase the demand for IPOs.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by offering empirical evidence regarding the signalling impact of earnings forecast disclosures on investor demands for Malaysian IPOs. Moreover, this study provides evidence demonstrating the impact of earnings forecast disclosures on oversubscription rates of Malaysian IPOs during the GFC period.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 30 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 August 2022

Guqiang Luo, Kun Tracy Wang and Yue Wu

Using a sample of 9,898 firm-year observations from 1,821 unique Chinese listed firms over the period from 2004 to 2019, this study aims to investigate whether the market rewards…

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Abstract

Purpose

Using a sample of 9,898 firm-year observations from 1,821 unique Chinese listed firms over the period from 2004 to 2019, this study aims to investigate whether the market rewards meeting or beating analyst earnings expectations (MBE).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use an event study methodology to capture market reactions to MBE.

Findings

The authors document a stock return premium for beating analyst forecasts by a wide margin. However, there is no stock return premium for firms that meet or just beat analyst forecasts, suggesting that the market is skeptical of earnings management by these firms. This market underreaction is more pronounced for firms with weak external monitoring. Further analysis shows that meeting or just beating analyst forecasts is indicative of superior future financial performance. The authors do not find firms using earnings management to meet or just beat analyst forecasts.

Research limitations/implications

The authors provide evidence of market underreaction to meeting or just beating analyst forecasts, with the market's over-skepticism of earnings management being a plausible mechanism for this phenomenon.

Practical implications

The findings of this study are informative to researchers, market participants and regulators concerned about the impact of analysts and earnings management and interested in detecting and constraining managers' earnings management.

Originality/value

The authors provide new insights into how the market reacts to MBE by showing that the market appears to focus on using meeting or just beating analyst forecasts as an indicator of earnings management, while it does not detect managed MBE. Meeting or just beating analyst forecasts is commonly used as a proxy for earnings management in the literature. However, the findings suggest that it is a noisy proxy for earnings management.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2018

Jenny (Jiyeon) Lee, Youngdeok Lim and Hyung Il Oh

The purpose of this study is to examine the relevance of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) to management voluntary forecasts of earnings. The authors further investigate…

1084

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the relevance of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) to management voluntary forecasts of earnings. The authors further investigate whether the market reacts to such forecasts in respect of satisfaction.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors’ econometric models are constructed from previous work in accounting to specify the effect of ACSI on the issuance and optimism of management forecasts. Our model also specifies the impact of management optimism with respect to ACSI on stock returns. The data consisting of US firms in the 2001-2010 is collated from several databases and analyzed using multiple regression procedures.

Findings

Results indicate that ACSI is positively associated with the likelihood of issuing management forecasts and boosts management optimism. It is also found that investors react negatively to management optimism that is inherent in forecasts and results from satisfaction.

Research limitations/implications

The authors’ research findings not only complement prior work on the linkage between customer satisfaction and firm value by incorporating a managerial perspective but also respond to the recent call for further work on how relevant marketing metrics drive organizational decisions and firms’ financial performance. It should be noted that findings are limited to firms that release both a voluntary issuance of management forecasts and ACSI.

Practical implications

The study results shed light on the justification of marketing expenditures and provide a response to the call for marketing accountability. The study results also enable managers to make better decisions about whether and when to issue a forecast. The authors’ research further calls stakeholders’ attention to the presence of management forecast optimism with respect to satisfaction.

Originality/value

Despite the importance of managers as primary information generators and disseminators in the capital markets, there appears to be little discussion on the satisfaction’s relevance to market participants, particularly in relation to the role of managers. Therefore, this investigation is the first to empirically show the relevance of ACSI to management earnings forecasts that have been ignored in the marketing literature.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 52 no. 9/10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2018

Mohammed Abdullah Ammer and Abdulaziz Mohammed Alsahlawi

Islam stresses on the practice of transparency and sufficient disclosure particularly when it concerns the ethical identity of Islamic institutions. This is to make sure that the…

Abstract

Purpose

Islam stresses on the practice of transparency and sufficient disclosure particularly when it concerns the ethical identity of Islamic institutions. This is to make sure that the activities conducted in business adhere to Shari’ah principles. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Shari’ah-compliant status on the accuracy of initial public offering (IPO) earnings forecasts and to investigate the effect of the existence of Muslim directors on IPO companies’ board of directors on the accuracy of earnings forecasts.

Design/methodology/approach

This study makes use of absolute forecast error as a proxy for earnings forecast accuracy. As obtained from the list of Shari’ah-compliant securities established by the Shari’ah Advisory Council of the Malaysian Securities Commission, the study sample comprised 190 Shari’ah-compliant and non-compliant IPOs. The collected data were analyzed through univariate analysis and ordinary least squares regression.

Findings

The initial findings show that during the study period, the earnings forecasts of Malaysian IPOs are accurate to some level, although such level is still unsatisfactory. The findings also showed that Shari’ah-compliant status and Muslim directorship do not positively affect the accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts.

Practical implications

The findings of the study provide some implications for regulators, financial analysts, investors and users of financial statements, particularly those desirous of investing in Islamic capital market.

Originality/value

The present study provides a new and far-reaching contribution into the debate about the earnings forecasts disclosure in the context of Islamic ethical perspective. In addition, this study is considered as the first study to extend IPO literature by examining the impact of Shari’ah-compliant status and Muslim directorship on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts disclosed in the IPO prospectus.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 May 2010

Nurwati A. Ahmad‐Zaluki and Wan Nordin Wan‐Hussin

This paper aims to extend the research on the Malaysian initial public offering (IPO) management earnings forecasts by examining the impact of corporate governance mechanisms and…

3853

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to extend the research on the Malaysian initial public offering (IPO) management earnings forecasts by examining the impact of corporate governance mechanisms and earnings forecasts accuracy. It seeks to investigate whether effective corporate governance is a credible signal of improving the quality of financial information.

Design/methodology/approach

A sample of 235 IPO companies that went public during the period 1999‐2006 was used. Absolute forecast error was used to proxy for earnings forecast accuracy and to represent financial disclosure quality.

Findings

Companies with a higher percentage of non‐executive directors in the audit committees and larger audit committee size exhibit greater forecast accuracy. The accuracy of IPO earnings forecast is also positively influenced by the use of brand‐name auditor.

Practical implications

The results suggest that effective corporate governance is a credible signal of improving the quality of financial information. The role of audit committee as financial monitors as suggested by the agency theory supports this paper.

Originality/value

The results are consistent with the belief that effective corporate governance is associated with higher financial disclosure quality. The results also support the decisions made by Malaysian regulators such as the Securities Commission to enhance the quality of financial disclosure by revising the Malaysian Code on Corporate Governance to encourage public companies to implement good governance practices such as audit committee independence.

Details

Asian Review of Accounting, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1321-7348

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 May 2015

François Aubert and Waël Louhichi

The purpose of this paper is to report on research concerning financial analysts’ activity surrounding profit warnings issued by listed companies in the four largest European…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to report on research concerning financial analysts’ activity surrounding profit warnings issued by listed companies in the four largest European stock exchanges (France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK). The authors address three aspects of analysts’ forecasts: ex-post accuracy of forecasts, earnings forecast revisions, and consensus forecast dispersion. The goal of the analysis is to study the differences between financial analysts’ behavior within different regulatory settings, namely common law vs civil law countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample is composed of 1,330 profit warnings issued by listed European firms during the period 2000-2010. The authors apply event study methodology and OLS regressions to highlight the impact of the legal information environment on analysts’ reactions.

Findings

The empirical analysis reveals that analyst activity depends on each country’s legal context factors, such as the legal information environment of the firm and the index of investor protection. Accordingly, the authors show that both a richer legal information environment and stronger country-level investor protection substantially improve analyst accuracy around profit warnings.

Research limitations/implications

The sample is only composed on firms from four European countries owing to a lack of firms from other European countries that disclosed PW during the period 2000-2010. It would be pertinent to conduct future research dealing with an international sample from different continents.

Practical implications

The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of analysts’ reactions to profit warnings. The findings can influence firms’ reporting practices and lead to future regulation policies.

Originality/value

This work is the first to examine the relationship between profit warning releases and the behavior of financial analysts in a pan-European context where there are different institutional levels of investor protection.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 July 2019

Elio Alfonso, Li-Zheng Brooks, Andrey Simonov and Joseph H. Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of career concerns on CEOs’ use of expectations management to meet or beat analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts. The authors…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of career concerns on CEOs’ use of expectations management to meet or beat analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts. The authors posit that early career-stage CEOs are less (more) likely to use expectations management than are late career-stage CEOs if the market views expectations management as an opportunistic strategy (efficient process) due to reputational capital concerns.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors obtain data for CEO career stages and CEO compensation from ExecuComp, analyst earnings forecasts from the detailed I/B/E/S database, financial statement data from quarterly Compustat and stock returns from the daily CRSP database over the period 1992–2013.

Findings

The results are consistent with the opportunistic hypothesis and early-stage CEOs seeking to build reputational capital by avoiding the perception of engaging in an inefficient managerial strategy. The authors find robust evidence that late career-stage CEOs are more likely to engage in expectations management than early career-stage CEOs. Furthermore, the authors show that late career-stage CEOs tend to employ expectations management to boost the value of their equity-based compensation.

Research limitations/implications

The findings have important implications because the authors document a different implication of the “horizon problem” related to CEOs’ opportunistic forecasting behavior and the manipulation of analysts’ forecasts for CEOs who are approaching retirement.

Practical implications

The results have practical implications for analysts who provide earnings forecasts for firms whose CEOs are in early or late career stages and for investors who use such analysts’ forecasts in firm valuation models.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the literature on expectations management by documenting how reputational incentives of CEOs affect the likelihood that managers engage in expectations management. The authors show that an important managerial incentive to engage in expectations management is CEO career concerns. Furthermore, the authors show that CEOs who are in early stages of their careers choose not to engage in expectations management due to the market’s perceived degree of opportunism pertaining to this strategy.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Mohammed Abdullah Ammer and Nurwati A. Ahmad-Zaluki

Presently, one of the major governance issues faced by management and shareholders of organizations is the gender composition of the boards of directors and audit committees. This…

1681

Abstract

Purpose

Presently, one of the major governance issues faced by management and shareholders of organizations is the gender composition of the boards of directors and audit committees. This study aims to examine the impact of gender diversity in audit committees on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts disclosure in initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses.

Design/methodology/approach

The study sample comprises 190 Malaysian companies issuing IPOs that transformed into public companies during the period 2002-2012. Earnings forecasts accuracy (quality) is proxied by absolute forecast error and the study model is developed based on the frameworks of the signalling theory, the agency theory and the resource-dependence theory.

Findings

The study proposes that female directors introduce a set of specific features in the boardroom that serve to improve investor protection and efficient monitoring of management. However, findings reveal an insignificantly positive relationship between gender diversity in audit committees and absolute forecast error, which shows that more female directors in audit committees could translate into more errors and less accuracy in earnings forecasts.

Practical implications

Considering the recent regulatory developments that encourage the number of women on the board of directors, the findings obtained have significant implications for policymakers. The study findings can also be invaluable to investors, investment analysts, market players and researchers.

Originality/value

The composition of the board of directors and audit committees in terms of gender plays a significant role in the promotion of effective corporate governance practices. This study is one of the pioneering studies that examines the advantages of gender diversity in the board of directors. It is also the first study to extend IPO literature by investigating the role of gender diversity in audit committees in the enhancement of accurate management earnings forecasts included in the IPO prospectuses.

Details

Gender in Management: An International Journal, vol. 32 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-2413

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 March 2017

Minyoung Noh, Hyunyoung Park and Moonkyung Cho

This paper aims to examine the effect of audit quality of consolidated financial statements on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts from the viewpoint of users of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effect of audit quality of consolidated financial statements on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts from the viewpoint of users of financial statements.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper investigates the effect of dependence on the work of other auditors on error in analysts’ earnings forecasts based on samples from 2011 to 2012 (the period since implementation of the International Financial Reporting Standards in Korea). In addition, this paper examines the effects of use of Big 4 auditors, use of auditors with industry expertise and the proportion of overseas subsidiaries in relation to all subsidiaries on the association between dependence on the work of other auditors and error in analysts’ earnings forecasts.

Findings

This paper finds a positive relation between dependence on the work of other auditors and error in analysts’ earnings forecasts, suggesting that more dependence on the work of other auditors decreases the quality of the audit of consolidated financial statements; thus, to the extent that low-quality audits decrease reporting reliability, analysts’ forecasts are less likely to be accurate. This paper also finds that the positive relationship between dependence on the work of other auditors and error in analysts’ earnings forecasts is weakened when the principal auditor is a Big 4 auditor or one with industry expertise, because such auditors provide higher-quality audit services. However, the positive relationship between dependence on the work of other auditors and error in analysts’ earnings forecasts is further strengthened in cases where the proportion of overseas subsidiaries to all subsidiaries is higher. These results suggest that the complexity of the consolidation process increases as the proportion of overseas subsidiaries increases.

Originality/value

The findings are useful in analyzing the effects of adoption of the New ISA, implemented in 2014, which does not allow the division of audit responsibilities between principal auditors and other auditors. This paper also provides insights for regulators and practitioners to improve the auditor appointment system in the future.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. 25 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

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