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This study aims to review earned value management (EVM)-relative methods, including the original EVM, earned schedule method (ESM) and earned duration management (EDM(t)). This study then proposes a general implementation procedure and some basic principles for the selection of EVM-relative methods.

After completing an intensive literature review, this study conducts a case study to examine the forecasting performance of project duration using the EVM, ESM and EDM(t) methods.

When the project is expected to finish on time, ESM with a performance factor equal to 1 is the recommended method. EDM(t) would be the most reliable method during a project's entire lifetime if EDM(t) is expected to be delayed based on past experience.

As this research conducts a case study with only one building construction project, the results might not hold true for all types of construction projects.

EVM, ESM and EDM(t) are simple and data-accessible methods. With the help of a general implementation procedure, applying all three methods would be better. The power of the three methods is definitely larger than that of choosing only one for complex construction projects.

Previous studies have discussed the advantages and disadvantages of EVM, ESM and EDM(t). This study amends the available outcomes. Thus, for schedulers or researchers interested in implementing EVM, ESM and EDM(t), this study can provide more constructive instructions.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a decision support framework that can be used by decision-makers to identify the most convenient disruption analysis (DA) methods for megaprojects and their stakeholders.

The framework was initially developed by conducting a comprehensive literature review to obtain extensive knowledge about disruption management and megaprojects. Focus group discussion (FGD) sessions with the participation of the construction practitioners were then organized to validate and strengthen the findings of the literature review. Consequently, 17 selection factors were identified and categorized as requirement, ability and outcome. Lastly, the most convenient DA methods for megaprojects were identified by performing integrated fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) analysis. Additionally, consistency analysis was also conducted to verify the reliability of the results.

The results revealed that the measured mile method is the most appropriate DA method for megaprojects. In case the measured mile method cannot be adopted due to various technical and contractual reasons, the decision-makers are proposed to consider program analysis, work or trade sampling, earned value analysis and control chart method, respectively. Second, the selection factors such as “Comprehensible analysis procedure,” “Existing knowledge and experience about a particular DA method,” “Ability to resolve greater number of disruption events,” “Ability to resolve complex disruption events,” “Ability to exclude factors that are not under the owner's responsibility” and “General acceptance by practitioners, courts, and arbitration, etc.” were given the top priority by the experts, highlighting the critical aspects of the DA methods.

Disruption claims in megaprojects are very critical for the contractors to compensate for the losses stemming from disruption events. Although the effective use of DA methods maximizes the accuracy and reliability of disruption claims, decision-makers can barely implement these methods adequately since past studies neglect to present extensive knowledge about the most convenient DA methods for megaprojects. Thus, developing a decision support framework for the selection of DA methods, this study is the earliest attempt that examines the mechanisms and inherent differences of DA methods. Additionally, owing to the robustness and versatility of this research approach, the research approach could be replicated also for future studies focusing on other project-based industries since disruption is also a challenging issue for many other industries.

Megaproject performance measurement (MPM) has received great attention in the project management community, but it primarily focused on the design of performance measures or frameworks. Yet, whether MPM utilization can improve megaproject performance and how project actors use MPM to improve megaproject performance is less well understood. This study aims to investigate whether and how the use of MPM can contribute to better megaproject performance.

Through the lens of the lever of control, this study conceptualizes MPM utilization as diagnostic use and interactive use. A holistic research model and related hypotheses integrating MPM use, project complexity and megaproject performance were established. The model was validated using a partial square-structural equation modeling method.

Based on 214-megaproject data collected through a questionnaire survey in China, the results show positive effects of diagnostic use and interactive use on megaproject performance. Both, however, have substitutional interaction effects. The moderating results suggest that the higher project complexity weakens the positive effects of MPM utilization on megaproject performance.

This study advances megaprojects performance measurement and management literature by validating the value of MPM utilization on performance. It also presents practical implications for project managers to improve performance by appropriate MPM utilization.

Earned value management (EVM)–based models for estimating project actual duration (AD) and cost at completion using various methods are continuously developed to improve the accuracy and actualization of predicted values. This study primarily aimed to examine natural gradient boosting (NGBoost-2020) with the classification and regression trees (CART) base model (base learner). To the best of the authors' knowledge, this concept has never been applied to EVM AD forecasting problem. Consequently, the authors compared this method to the single K-nearest neighbor (KNN) method, the ensemble method of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost-2016) with the CART base model and the optimal equation of EVM, the earned schedule (ES) equation with the performance factor equal to 1 (ES1). The paper also sought to determine the extent to which the World Bank's two legal factors affect countries and how the two legal causes of delay (related to institutional flaws) influence AD prediction models.

In this paper, data from 30 construction projects of various building types in Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Malaysia and Nigeria (due to the high number of delayed projects and the detrimental effects of these delays in these countries) were used to develop three models. The target variable of the models was a dimensionless output, the ratio of estimated duration to completion (ETC(t)) to planned duration (PD). Furthermore, 426 tracking periods were used to build the three models, with 353 samples and 23 projects in the training set, 73 patterns (17% of the total) and six projects (21% of the total) in the testing set. Furthermore, 17 dimensionless input variables were used, including ten variables based on the main variables and performance indices of EVM and several other variables detailed in the study. The three models were subsequently created using Python and several GitHub-hosted codes.

For the testing set of the optimal model (NGBoost), the better percentage mean (better%) of the prediction error (based on projects with a lower error percentage) of the NGBoost compared to two KNN and ES1 single models, as well as the total mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean lags (MeLa) (indicating model stability) were 100, 83.33, 5.62 and 3.17%, respectively. Notably, the total MAPE and MeLa for the NGBoost model testing set, which had ten EVM-based input variables, were 6.74 and 5.20%, respectively. The ensemble artificial intelligence (AI) models exhibited a much lower MAPE than ES1. Additionally, ES1 was less stable in prediction than NGBoost. The possibility of excessive and unusual MAPE and MeLa values occurred only in the two single models. However, on some data sets, ES1 outperformed AI models. NGBoost also outperformed other models, especially single models for most developing countries, and was more accurate than previously presented optimized models. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the NGBoost predicted outputs of 30 projects using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. All variables demonstrated an effect on ETC(t)/PD. The results revealed that the most influential input variables in order of importance were actual time (AT) to PD, regulatory quality (RQ), earned duration (ED) to PD, schedule cost index (SCI), planned complete percentage, rule of law (RL), actual complete percentage (ACP) and ETC(t) of the ES optimal equation to PD. The probabilistic hybrid model was selected based on the outputs predicted by the NGBoost and XGBoost models and the MAPE values from three AI models. The 95% prediction interval of the NGBoost–XGBoost model revealed that 96.10 and 98.60% of the actual output values of the testing and training sets are within this interval, respectively.

Due to the use of projects performed in different countries, it was not possible to distribute the questionnaire to the managers and stakeholders of 30 projects in six developing countries. Due to the low number of EVM-based projects in various references, it was unfeasible to utilize other types of projects. Future prospects include evaluating the accuracy and stability of NGBoost for timely and non-fluctuating projects (mostly in developed countries), considering a greater number of legal/institutional variables as input, using legal/institutional/internal/inflation inputs for complex projects with extremely high uncertainty (such as bridge and road construction) and integrating these inputs and NGBoost with new technologies (such as blockchain, radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, building information modeling (BIM) and Internet of things (IoT)).

The legal/intuitive recommendations made to governments are strict control of prices, adequate supervision, removal of additional rules, removal of unfair regulations, clarification of the future trend of a law change, strict monitoring of property rights, simplification of the processes for obtaining permits and elimination of unnecessary changes particularly in developing countries and at the onset of irregular projects with limited information and numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, the managers and stakeholders of this group of projects were informed of the significance of seven construction variables (institutional/legal external risks, internal factors and inflation) at an early stage, using time series (dynamic) models to predict AD, accurate calculation of progress percentage variables, the effectiveness of building type in non-residential projects, regular updating inflation during implementation, effectiveness of employer type in the early stage of public projects in addition to the late stage of private projects, and allocating reserve duration (buffer) in order to respond to institutional/legal risks.

Ensemble methods were optimized in 70% of references. To the authors' knowledge, NGBoost from the set of ensemble methods was not used to estimate construction project duration and delays. NGBoost is an effective method for considering uncertainties in irregular projects and is often implemented in developing countries. Furthermore, AD estimation models do fail to incorporate RQ and RL from the World Bank's worldwide governance indicators (WGI) as risk-based inputs. In addition, the various WGI, EVM and inflation variables are not combined with substantial degrees of delay institutional risks as inputs. Consequently, due to the existence of critical and complex risks in different countries, it is vital to consider legal and institutional factors. This is especially recommended if an in-depth, accurate and reality-based method like SHAP is used for analysis.

This study addresses the prevailing complexities and limitations in estimating and managing construction overhead costs (COCs) in the existing literature, with the purpose of enhancing the accuracy of cost performance indicators in construction project management.

An innovative approach is proposed, employing the activity-based costing (ABC) accounting method combined with building information modelling (BIM) to assign real overhead costs to project activities. This study, distinguished by its incorporation of a real case study, focuses on an administrative building with a four-story concrete structure. It establishes an automated method for evaluating project cost performance through the detailed analysis of earned value management (EVM) cost indicators derived from ABC results and BIM data.

The results show that the ABC integration improves the accuracy of cost performance indicators by over 9%, revealing the project's true cost index for the first time and demonstrating the substantial value of the approach in construction engineering and management.

The current study highlights a notable gap in the existing literature, addressing the challenges in onsite overhead cost estimation and offering a solution that incorporates the state-of-the-art techniques.

The proposed method has significant implications for project managers and practitioners, enabling better-informed decisions based on precise cost data, ultimately leading to enhanced project outcomes.

This research uniquely combines ABC and BIM, presenting a pioneering solution for the accurate estimation and management of COCs in construction projects, adding significant value to the current body of knowledge in this field.

This paper reports the developments of a project cost control system (PCCS) for construction projects to (1) measure its current level of cost control maturity, (2) examine the relationships between elements within PCCS processes and (3) identify improvement areas.

This study adopts a mixed approach of descriptive analysis and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to measure the current maturity level of PCCS and evaluate the relationships between elements within PCSS to identify improvement areas. Further importance-performance matrix analysis (IPMA) of priority constructs was conducted to improve a target construct and identify the most important areas of specific actions at indicator levels. The results of IPMA revealed the contrast that has the greatest importance on the performance of others so that the recommendations can be made accordingly. Data collected in New Zealand were used to develop the research model.

This study develops structural and measurement models with the constructs including pre-control, in-control and post-control processes, enablers and their proposed interrelationships. Then, data from survey of 184 experienced project cost control team members reveal that post-control has the lowest maturity or weakest areas in the PCCS. Data analysis facilitated by PLS-SEM confirmed that all the constructs in the structural model have positive and significant relationships with each other and suggested that systematic cost analysis reports, communication, skills and experience, defining roles and responsibilities, and top management's support should be the highest priority for improving the PCCS in a more effective manner.

This study presents one of the earliest attempts to develop and test an integrated model that links sub-processes in PCCS and their enablers. Secondly, this research adds to the construction project management literature by empirically verifying the roles of enablers in enhancing maturity level of PCCS.

An S-curve is an essential project-management tool. However, it is difficult to adjust S-curve to deal with a force majeure event. The present study develops four valuable adjustment approaches, designed to achieve a compromise between the views of the client and contractor. These can be used to control projects after a force majeure event.

The present study develops four adjustment approaches, which can be used to achieve a compromise between the views of the client and those of the contractor when controlling projects after a force majeure. To determine the S-curves during a force majeure event, two approaches can be selected: BCWS (budgeted cost of scheduled work)-base approach, or BCWP (budgeted cost of work performed)-base approach. To determine the rest of S-curves after a force majeure event, two approaches can be considered: maintaining the original curve of the remaining BCWS, or allocating the original curve of the remaining BCWS. Based on the validation of three empirical cases, drawn from a professional project-management website, this study confirms the feasibility of four proposed empirical approaches and a selection procedure for S-curve adjustment.

The S-curve-adjustment approaches presented here can be used to deal with cases that are ahead of, on and behind schedule. Using the proposed approaches and selection procedure, contractors can easily revise S-curves and control projects more effectively. To deal with a force majeure event, such as COVID-19, they are strongly advised to adopt the approaches labeled SA-A1 (to adjust the S-curve based on the extension ratio multiplied by the difference in progress during the force majeure) and SA-B1 (to maintain the original curve of the remaining BCWS) for the A/E and E/F curves, respectively.

The proposed approaches can be used in cases of continuous construction during force majeure events. If construction work is totally suspended during such an event, it will be necessary to fine-tune the proposed approaches.

Previous studies have used case-oriented or mathematical-simulation approaches to forecast S-curves. The present study proposes simple approaches that allow the client and contractor to adjust the S-curve easily after a force majeure event. These approaches can be used to adjust work and project-completion targets within an extended duration. Selecting the right S-curve adjustment approach can help to control the remainder of the project, reducing the possibility of delay claims.

A variety of buffer allocation methods exist to distribute an aggregated time buffer among project activities. However, these methods do not pay simultaneous attention to two key attributes of disruptive events that may occur during the construction phase: probability and impact. This paper fills this research gap by developing a buffer allocation method that takes into account the synergistic impact of these two attributes on project activities.

This paper develops a three-step method, calculating the probability that project activities are disrupted in the first step, followed by measuring the potential impact of disruption on project activities, and then proposing a risk-informed buffer allocation index by simultaneously integrating probability and impact outputs from the first two steps.

The proposed method provides more accurate results by sidestepping the shortcomings of conventional fuzzy-based and simulation-based methods that are purely based on expert judgments or historical precedence. Further, the paper provides decision-makers with a buffer allocation method that helps in developing cost-effective buffering and backup strategies by prioritizing project activities and their required resources.

This paper develops a risk-informed buffer allocation method that differs from those already available. The simultaneous pursuit of the probability and impact of disruptions distinguishes our method from conventional buffer allocation methods. Further, this paper intertwines the research domains of complexity science and construction management by performing centrality analysis and incorporating a key attribute of project complexity (i.e. the interconnectedness between project activities) into the process for buffer allocation.

Systemic risk is of concern for economic welfare as it can lower the credit supply to all the sectors within an economy. This study examines for the first time the complete hierarchy of variables that drive systemic risk during normal and crisis periods in Pakistan, a developing economy.

Secondary data of the bank, sector and country variables are used for the purpose of the analysis spanning from 2000 to 2020. Systemic risk is computed using marginal expected shortfall (MES). One-step and two-step system GMM is performed to estimate the impact of firm, sector and country-level variables on systemic risk.

The findings of the study highlight that sector-level variables are also highly significant in explaining the systemic risk dynamics along with bank and country-level variables. In addition, economic sensitivity influences the significance level of variables across crisis and post-crisis periods and modifies the direction of relationships in some instances.

The study examines the systemic risk of a developing economy, and findings may not be generalizable to developed economies.

The outcome of the study provides a comprehensive framework for the central bank and other regulatory authorities that can be translated into timely policies to avoid systemic financial crisis.

The negative externalities generated by systemic risk also affect the general public. The study results can be used to avoid the systemic financial crisis and resultantly save the loss of the general public's hard-earned holdings.

The firm, sector and country-level variables are modeled for the first time to estimate systemic risk across different economic conditions in a developing economy, Pakistan. The study can also act as a reference for researchers in developed economies as well regarding the role of sector-level variables in explaining systemic risk.

Although the value effect is comprehensively investigated in developed markets, the number of studies examining the Vietnamese stock market is limited. Hence, the first aim of this research is to provide empirical evidence regarding returns on value and growth stocks in Vietnam. The second aim is to explain abnormal returns on Vietnamese growth and value stocks using both risk-based and behavioral points of view.

From the risk-based explanation, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama–French three- and five-factor models are estimated. From the behavioral explanation, to construct the mispricing factor, this paper relies on the method of Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005), one of the most popular mispricing estimations in the financial literature with numerous citations (Jaffe et al., 2020).

While the CAPM and Fama–French multifactor models cannot capture returns on growth and value stocks, a three-factor model with the mispricing factor has done an excellent job in explaining their returns. Three out of four Fama–French mimic factors do not contain additional information on expected returns. Their risk premiums are also statistically insignificant according to the Fama–MacBeth second-stage regression. By contrast, both robustness tests prove the explanatory power of a three-factor model with mispricing. Taken together, mispricing plays an essential role in explaining returns on Vietnamese growth and value stocks, consistent with the behavioral point of view.

There are several value-enhancing aspects in the field of market finance. First, this paper contributes to the literature of value effect in emerging markets. While the evidence of value effect is obvious in numerous developed as well as international markets, both growth and value effects are discovered in Vietnam. Second, the explanatory power of Fama–French multifactor models is evaluated in the Vietnamese context. Finally, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first paper that incorporates the mispricing estimation of Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005) into the asset pricing model in Vietnam.