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Do state governments have the ability to predict the onset, duration, and depth of structural fiscal crisis? The State of Indiana had a particularly difficult time recovering from the recession that began in April 2001. Painful expenditure restraint and substantive revenue increases were necessary simply to "break even" from 2002 through 2006. Could early warning signs have permitted more timely actions to avert the subsequent pain? Using monthly cash receipts and balances, we test whether these data hold predictive value in forecasting the onset and severity of fiscal imbalance. The evidence strongly suggests that the structural character of the 2001-02 deficit and its subsequent depth was discernible in the cash receipts stream early enough to take ameliorating action. That the state did not do so reflects budgetary psychology more than the deficit’s predictability.

Purchasing and procurement fraud is a large area of fraudulent activity. It is one of the most prevalent types of fraud affecting British industry today. This paper highlights the key risks of fraud in the purchasing and procurement area and the warning signs.

With the intensification of market competition, there is a growing demand for weak signal identification and evolutionary analysis for enterprise foresight. For decades, many scholars have conducted relevant research. However, the existing research only cuts in from a single angle and lacks a systematic and comprehensive overview. In this paper, the authors summarize the articles related to weak signal recognition and evolutionary analysis, in an attempt to make contributions to relevant research.

The authors develop a systematic overview framework based on the most classical three-dimensional space model of weak signals. Framework comprehensively summarizes the current research insights and knowledge from three dimensions of research field, identification methods and interpretation methods.

The research results show that it is necessary to improve the automation level in the process of weak signal recognition and analysis and transfer valuable human resources to the decision-making stage. In addition, it is necessary to coordinate multiple types of data sources, expand research subfields and optimize weak signal recognition and interpretation methods, with a view to expanding weak signal future research, making theoretical and practical contributions to enterprise foresight, and providing reference for the government to establish weak signal technology monitoring, evaluation and early warning mechanisms.

The authors develop a systematic overview framework based on the most classical three-dimensional space model of weak signals. It comprehensively summarizes the current research insights and knowledge from three dimensions of research field, identification methods and interpretation methods.

The purpose of this paper is to look at why organizational disasters happen, and to discuss how organizations can improve their ability to recognize and respond to warning events and conditions before they tailspin into catastrophe.

A review of research on organizational disasters suggests that there are a number of information difficulties that can prevent organizations from noticing and acting on warning signals. The paper describes these difficulties using recent examples of organizational mishaps from: 9/11, Enron, Merck Vioxx withdrawal, Barings Bank collapse, Columbia Space Shuttle breakup, and Children's Hospital Boston.

The paper identifies three types of information impairments that could lead to organizational disasters: epistemic blind spots, risk denial, and structural impediment. It examines common information and decision practices that make it hard for organizations to see and deal with warning signals. Finally, the paper suggests what individuals, groups, and organizations can do to raise their information vigilance.

The paper shows that organizational disasters have a structure and dynamic that can be understood, and proposes a number of strategies by which organizations can become better prepared to recognize and contain errors so as to avert disaster.

One of the major challenges for any project is to prepare and develop an achievable baseline schedule and thus set the project up for success, rather than failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate research outputs in one of the major causes, optimism bias, to identify problems with developing baseline schedules and analyse mitigation techniques and their effectiveness recommended by research to minimise the impact of this bias.

A systematic quantitative literature review was followed, examining Project Management Journals, documenting the mitigation approaches recommended and then reviewing whether these approaches were validated by research.

Optimism bias proved to be widely accepted as a major cause of unrealistic scheduling for projects, and there is a common understanding as to what it is and the effects that it has on original baseline schedules. Based upon this review, the most recommended mitigation method is Flyvbjerg’s “Reference class,” which has been developed based upon Kahneman’s “Outside View”. Both of these mitigation techniques are based upon using an independent third party to review the estimate. However, within the papers reviewed, apart from the engineering projects, there has been no experimental and statistically validated research into the effectiveness of this method. The majority of authors who have published on this topic are based in Europe.

The short-listed papers for this review referred mainly to non-engineering projects which included information technology focussed ones. Thus, on one hand, empirical research is needed for engineering projects, while on the other hand, the lack of tangible evidence for the effectiveness of methods related to the alleviation of optimism bias issues calls for greater research into the effectiveness of mitigation techniques for not only engineering projects, but for all projects.

This paper documents the growth within the project management research literature over time on the topic of optimism bias. Specifically, it documents the various methods recommended to mitigate the phenomenon and highlights quantitatively the research undertaken on the subject. Moreover, it introduces paths for further research.

Flexibility is necessary in a dynamic healthcare environment. However, balancing flexibility and consistency is difficult for healthcare teams, especially when working in threatening conditions. Methods are needed to help teams create, monitor and maintain flexibility.

This study evaluates a practice-based program –– the Flexmonitor – which aims to help teams develop and maintain flexibility. Here, realistic evaluation was used to refine the program and define building blocks for future programs.

The Flexmonitor can be used to monitor implicit criteria and differences in interpretation and beliefs among team members to promote flexibility. It also monitors team behavior and the effects of this behavior on self-defined indicators. Using the Flexmonitor, team members can discuss their beliefs and the definitions and criteria of flexibility. Strikingly, teams were not able to effectively self-manage their flexibility using the Flexmonitor.

This article contributes to our knowledge of self-managing teams, particularly the question of whether team members can take responsibility for team flexibility.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the prevention of the abuse of older people in residential and nursing homes, through the identification of “early indicators of concern”. Such indicators support practitioners in identifying services in which older people are at risk of abuse, neglect and ill treatment.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with health and social care practitioners in two local authorities (in England and Scotland), who had visited services in which abuse or neglect had occurred. Practitioners were asked about the things that they had seen within the service which had caused them to become concerned.

Over 90 early indicators of concern were identified. These indicators were grouped within six themes which identify key manifestations of service cultures which may promote the abuse of older people.

Information and guidance has been developed to enable practitioners to recognise early indicators and identify services in which older people are at risk and in which actions are required to help prevent the onset of abuse.

A range of studies have highlighted the importance of organisational cultures in promoting the abuse of older people. The early indicators identified through this research represent visible signs of such poor service cultures which can be observed by practitioners, enabling them to recognise services in which older people are at greater risk.

This paper aims to review the information management aspects of the early months of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) coronavirus 19 outbreak. It shows that the transition from epidemic to the pandemic was caused partly by poor management of information that was publicly available in January 2020.

The approach combines public domain epidemic data with economic, demographic, health, social and political data and investigates how information was managed by governments. It includes case studies of early-stage information management, from countries with high and low coronavirus disease 2019 impacts (as measured by deaths per million).

The reasons why the information was not acted upon appropriately include “dark side” information behaviours (Stone et al., 2019). Many errors and misjudgements could have been avoided by using learnings from previous epidemics, particularly the 1918-1919 flu epidemic when international travel (mainly of troops in First World War) was a prime mode of spreading. It concludes that if similar outbreaks are not to turn into pandemics, much earlier action is needed, mainly closing borders and locking-down.

The research is based on what was known at the time of writing, when the pandemic’s exact origin was uncertain, when some statistics about actions and results were unavailable and when final results were unknown.

Governments faced with early warning signs or pandemics must act much faster.

If the next virus is as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 but much more fatal, the world faces disastrous consequences if most governments act as slowly as this time.

This is one of the first analyses of information management practices relating to the pandemic’s early stages.

Gives an in depth view of the strategies pursued by the world’s leading chief executive officers in an attempt to provide guidance to new chief executives of today. Considers the marketing strategies employed, together with the organizational structures used and looks at the universal concepts that can be applied to any product. Uses anecdotal evidence to formulate a number of theories which can be used to compare your company with the best in the world. Presents initial survival strategies and then looks at ways companies can broaden their boundaries through manipulation and choice. Covers a huge variety of case studies and examples together with a substantial question and answer section.