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Euro-area may avoid recession in 2023

Location:

EURO-AREA

The macroeconomic impact of the war in Ukraine has been less serious for the euro-area than initially feared

German exports may remain strong despite Brexit, Trump

Location:

GERMANY

Germany competes primarily on quality, but the weak euro has also improved its price competitiveness

ECB may extend QE to support recovery

Location:

EUROPE

Weaker-than-expected global growth may dampen euro-area recovery, requiring further monetary stimulus

Wages in EU's East will not catch up with West soon

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

EU11 labour costs have climbed in the past decade but at current rates will not reach the EU28 average until the 2040s

ECB will ease monetary policy further on March 10

Location:

EURO-AREA

Downside risks, tightening of financial conditions and weak inflation dynamics

Italy’s fragility is Europe’s biggest risk into 2018

Location:

ITALY

Elections must be held by May 2018, against a backdrop of subdued growth prospects, indebted banks and rising refugees

'Brexit' and 'Grexit' risk collision in May

Location:

EURO-AREA

Europe's political risk will be highest in May, just as the UK general election raises the prospect of 'Brexit'

Markets await the closest French election in years

Location:

FRANCE

Four candidates are polling 18% or more ahead of the April 23 election; two of them are anti-EU, worrying investors

Key risks and opportunities in 2016: 2

Location:

INTL

The pace of US monetary policy normalisation and China's slowdown will be key determinants of 2016 growth

Italy’s election will focus on immigration and economy

Location:

ITALY

Twitter analysis suggests that domestic issues are key concerns, whereas the EU is less salient