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Book part
Publication date: 4 July 2015

Firano Zakaria

In this paper, we search to evaluate the systemic risk of the Moroccan banking sector. Indeed, we concentrate on the analysis and the evaluation on transverse dimension of the…

Abstract

In this paper, we search to evaluate the systemic risk of the Moroccan banking sector. Indeed, we concentrate on the analysis and the evaluation on transverse dimension of the systemic. From this point of view, two approaches were used. First is based on the estimate on value at risk conditional allowing to measure the systemic importance of each banking institution. In addition, the second approach uses the heteroscedasticity models in order to consider the conditional correlations, making it possible, to measure the dependence between the Moroccan banks and with the whole of the financial system. The results obtained with through these two approaches confirm that ATW, BMCI and the BMCE are the most systemic banks in Moroccan banking system and who can initiate a systemic crisis. On another register and by using the conditional correlations of each bank we built an index of systemic risk. Moreover, a macrofinancial model was developed, connecting the index of the systemic risk and the principal macroeconomic variables. This model affirmed that the contagion dimension of systemic risk is procyclical.

Details

Overlaps of Private Sector with Public Sector around the Globe
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-956-1

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Book part
Publication date: 16 September 2022

Luca Gambetti, Christoph Görtz, Dimitris Korobilis, John D. Tsoukalas and Francesco Zanetti

A vector autoregression model estimated on US data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond

Abstract

A vector autoregression model estimated on US data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news total factor productivity shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and broadly decline in the post-1980s. Corporate bond spreads decline significantly, and durable spending rises significantly in the post-1980 period while the opposite short-run response is observed in the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the Federal Reserve has adopted a restrictive stance before the 1980s with the goal of retaining control over inflation while adopting a neutral/accommodative stance in the post-1980 period.

Book part
Publication date: 6 January 2016

Maximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon and Gabriel Perez-Quiros

Previous studies have shown that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on the market expectations of its future actions. This paper proposes an…

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on the market expectations of its future actions. This paper proposes an econometric framework to address the effect of the current state of the economy on monetary policy expectations. Specifically, we study the effect of contractionary (or expansionary) demand (or supply) shocks hitting the euro area countries on the expectations of the ECB's monetary policy in two stages. In the first stage, we construct indexes of real activity and inflation dynamics for each country, based on soft and hard indicators. In the second stage, we use those indexes to provide assessments on the type of aggregate shock hitting each country and assess its effect on monetary policy expectations at different horizons. Our results indicate that expectations are responsive to aggregate contractionary shocks, but not to expansionary shocks. Particularly, contractionary demand shocks have a negative effect on short-term monetary policy expectations, while contractionary supply shocks have negative effect on medium- and long-term expectations. Moreover, shocks to different economies do not have significantly different effects on expectations, although some differences across countries arise.

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Dynamic Factor Models
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-353-2

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Book part
Publication date: 21 May 2021

Aamir Aijaz Syed

The objective of this chapter is to study the symmetric and asymmetric impact of macroeconomic variables on the Indian stock prices (SPs) of the Bombay Stock Exchange index. This…

Abstract

The objective of this chapter is to study the symmetric and asymmetric impact of macroeconomic variables on the Indian stock prices (SPs) of the Bombay Stock Exchange index. This chapter further investigates whether the asymmetric impact of macroeconomic variables on SP is due to the impact of any tail events like the global financial recession. An autoregressive distribution lag and non-autoregressive distribution lag approach is used for the full sample covering the period from January 2000 to June 2019 and later this sample is further subdivided into before and after the crisis period to study the variations in result. The findings show that macroeconomic variables and SP have a symmetric relation in the long run whereas an asymmetric relationship in the short run when the whole sample is analyzed. However when data are segregated into “before and after” crisis period this relationship turns to be asymmetric in long run too, meaning that in the long run, the negative and positive changes in a macroeconomic variable do not affect SPs similarly.

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New Challenges for Future Sustainability and Wellbeing
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-969-6

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Book part
Publication date: 3 August 2015

Vipin P. Veetil and Richard E. Wagner

Standard macro theories have the same analytical structure as their micro counterparts. Where micro theories work with equilibrium between supply and demand for particular…

Abstract

Standard macro theories have the same analytical structure as their micro counterparts. Where micro theories work with equilibrium between supply and demand for particular products, macro theories work with equilibrium applied to aggregates of products. This common approach treats the micro–macro relationship as scalable, with macro variables being aggregations over micro variables. In contrast, we pursue a systems-theoretic approach to the micro–macro relationship. This relationship is not scalable and rather entails a disjunction between micro- and macro-levels of theory. While micro phenomena are still susceptible to choice-theoretic analysis, macro phenomena are products of ecological interaction and so entail emergent phenomena. Our alternative approach treats macro theory as a form of systems theory where the behavior of the system has properties that are not reducible to properties of the individual elements within that system. Besides sketching this alternative approach, we examine some of the different insights this approach offers into such topics as unemployment and stabilization.

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New Thinking in Austrian Political Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-137-8

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Book part
Publication date: 4 July 2019

Aleksei V. Bogoviz, Tatiana V. Skryl, Larisa A. Kapustyan, Ksenia V. Ekimova and Julia V. Ragulina

The purpose of the chapter is to consider the methodology of studying socio-economic systems through the prism of the theory of cycles and to analyze applicability of this…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the chapter is to consider the methodology of studying socio-economic systems through the prism of the theory of cycles and to analyze applicability of this methodology to studying economic.

Methodology

Based on the dynamic model of development of socio-economic system through the prism of the theory of cycles, the authors analyze dynamics of development of Russia’s socio-economic system through the prism of the theory of cycles in 2000–2022.

Conclusions

Drawbacks of the existing theory of cycles are determined. First, the models of economic cycles are too idealized and are alien to the current economic reality. These models do not correctly describe cyclic fluctuations of modern socio-economic systems – which is shown by the example of Russia. Second, application of the methodology of the theory of cycles in practice (by the example of Russia) leads to contradictory results. Each indicator of economic growth, including investments into economy, inflation, unemployment level, and balance of federal budget, has its own cyclic fluctuations, which could differ from fluctuations of GDP in constant prices. Third, the system of factors of cyclic fluctuations of socio-economic systems includes primarily economic (not social) factors. Due to this, the theory of cycles takes into account only objective reasons of crises of socio-economic systems.

Originality/value

It is determined that domination of subjective reasons in emergence of economic conflicts makes application of the theory of cycles not applicable to full-scale study of economic conflicts – application of this concept is expedient only as to economic crises that are one of a lot of manifestations of economic conflicts. It is probably that neglecting subjective (social) factors leads to the above contradictions of the theory of cycles and difference between its theoretical models and empirical data. Based on this conclusion, it is substantiated that methodology of studying socio-economic system through the prism of the theory of cycles is not applicable to economic conflicts; it is determined that development of the concept of economic conflicts can specify and improve the methodology of the theory of cycles.

Book part
Publication date: 31 December 2010

Sajal Lahiri

We examine the effect of borrowing constraint facing new immigrants on the process of their assimilation in the new society. We shall do so in a two-period model. In period 1…

Abstract

We examine the effect of borrowing constraint facing new immigrants on the process of their assimilation in the new society. We shall do so in a two-period model. In period 1, immigrants invest, with some costs to them, in trying to assimilate. The probability of success in this endeavor depends on the amount invested and also on the level of the provision of a “public” good paid for by lump-sum taxation of “natives”. Those who succeed enjoy a higher level of productivity and therefore wages in period 2. The level of investment is endogenously determined. Assimilation also affects remittances by immigrants. Given this framework, we examine the effect of public support on the degree of assimilation and income repatriation. We do so under two scenarios regarding the credit market facing new immigrants. In the first, they can borrow as much as they want in period 1 at an exogenously given interest rate. In the second scenarios, there is a binding borrowing constraint. We compare the equilibrium under the two scenarios.

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Migration and Culture
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-153-5

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Book part
Publication date: 24 October 2013

Vighneswara Swamy

The Eurozone debt crisis has indeed jeopardized the recovery plans put in place post global crisis by regulators, policymakers, and the sovereigns. Though the crisis is…

Abstract

The Eurozone debt crisis has indeed jeopardized the recovery plans put in place post global crisis by regulators, policymakers, and the sovereigns. Though the crisis is epicentered in the Eurozone, the knock-on effects of the crisis are felt all across the globe. The emerging and developing economies (EDEs) are also expected to post lower growth on account of worsening external environment and a weakening internal demand. This chapter analyzes the causes for sovereign debt crisis, presents the implications of sovereign debt crises, and draws lessons for banking sectors more particularly in the context of emerging markets like that of India.

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Global Banking, Financial Markets and Crises
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-170-0

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 October 2014

George Bragues

It has often been alleged that the financial markets, with all their speculative excesses, wastefully absorb resources that could be better employed in the real economy. Fritz…

Abstract

It has often been alleged that the financial markets, with all their speculative excesses, wastefully absorb resources that could be better employed in the real economy. Fritz Machlup, originally a student of Ludwig von Mises, dealt with that charge in the aftermath of the 1929 crash. His defense of the stock market remains germane to our time. In it, he argues that the stock exchange offers an important alternative mechanism of allocating savings to investment, while generally being a way station through which money travels on its way to the real economy either to finance capital projects or to be spent on consumer goods. To the extent the stock market ever absorbs capital, it is only during stock market booms. Yet these are generated by the uncertain course of central bank monetary expansion. Bull and bear markets cycles are, at bottom, politically driven events.

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Entangled Political Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-102-2

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 July 2019

Elena A. Gureeva, Elena V. Kletskova, Tatiana I. Chinaeva, Tatiana N. Morgun and Elena N. Kolomoets

The purpose of the chapter is to compare social and economic effects that accompany crises of economic systems.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the chapter is to compare social and economic effects that accompany crises of economic systems.

Methodology

According to the adopted classification of causes of conflicts of socio-economic systems, the indicators that reflect potential social and economic causes of crisis are determined. Regression analysis is performed, and multiple regression dependence of economic growth of Russia’s economic system (values of growth of GDP in constant prices) on the indicators that characterize social and economic causes of crisis is determined; correlation analysis is performed and correlation of each indicator of causes and the indicator of economic growth is determined.

Conclusions

It is shown by the example of modern Russia that subjective (social factors) have the key role in determining cyclic fluctuations of economic system – together with objective (economic effects). Social causes of crisis are almost as important as economic causes. In view of generally acknowledged social consequences of crises (growth of inflation and unemployment level), it is possible to state a relatively equal role of economic and social effects that accompany crises of economic systems. The information and empirical basis of the chapter consists of the statistical materials of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the OECD. The research is performed by the example of modern Russia’s economic system; its timeframe covers 1999–2018 (recent 20 years).

Originality/value

The obtained conclusions show the necessity and open perspectives for specifying the existing theory of cycles in the aspect of inclusion of social effects into the model of cyclic (wave) fluctuations of economic systems.

Details

“Conflict-Free” Socio-Economic Systems
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78769-994-6

Keywords

21 – 30 of 252