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The purpose of the chapter is to determine common regularities and peculiarities of the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems in view of developed and developing countries.

The methodology of this research includes the developed author’s conceptual model of conflict of socio-economic system as an analog of the model of economic cycle. As crisis is a manifestation/example of economic conflict, this model could be used for studying it. Also, the method of comparative analysis is used for comparing the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems from various categories. The objects of the research are selections of countries according to classification of the International Monetary Fund – leading developed countries (advanced economies) and emerging market and developing economies. The studied indicator is annual growth rate of GDP in constant prices.

Modeling and analysis of the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems of developed and developing countries are performed, with crisis considered as a wave of economic cycle. Apart from common regularities of the 2008 crisis in socio-economic systems – vivid and short negative reaction and double wave of crisis – we determined peculiarities of influence of this crisis on economies of developed and developing countries. These peculiarities are connected to the fact that the 2008 crisis was deeper in developed countries than in developing countries, but the crisis was developing according to the optimistic scenario (long waves) and was overcome in 2012. In developed countries, the crisis was developing according to the pessimistic scenario (short waves), and negative reaction renewed in 2012, with another one expected in 2021.

It is substantiated that insufficiently intensive and successful management of crisis in developing countries will probably become a cause of increase of differentiation of countries in the global economic system, which is expressed in growth of underrun of developing countries from developed countries.

The purpose of this chapter is to determine the essence of stagnating socio-economic systems through the prism of the theory of economic conflicts.

Comparative analysis of conceptual approaches to treatment of stagnation of socio-economic systems – the theory of cycles, the theory of economic growth, and the theory of economic conflicts – is performed. According to the theory of economic conflicts, signs of stagnation of socio-economic systems are determined with the help of methods of horizontal and trend analysis. The research objects are leading developed countries (major advanced economies – G7), which, according to the existing scientific and economic paradigm, should not stagnate, and countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which, in the contrary, may show signs of stagnation. The analyzed indicators are growth rate of GDP in constant prices, growth rate of GDP per capita in constant prices, and the level of unemployment rate. The research is performed in the period of post-crisis restoration of modern socio-economic systems, including the forecast period (2010–2022) based on the data of the International Monetary Fund.

As a result of the research, the essence of stagnation of socio-economic systems is determined, and the following characteristics are given: emergence after crisis, negative influence on economy, universal nature, and manageability.

The obtained conclusions show opposition of stagnation and sustainable development. Stagnation is absence of economic growth and development, regardless of social and ecological costs of economic activities. Contrary to it, sustainable development means stable economic growth with low social and ecological costs of economic activities. That’s why stagnation of economy is a negative phenomenon. Unlike crises, stagnation could and should be avoided with the help of the corresponding (anti-stagnation) measures of crisis management.

This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.

Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.

The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.

The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

We develop a framework for measuring and monitoring business cycles in real time. Following a long tradition in macroeconometrics, inference is based on a variety of indicators of economic activity, treated as imperfect measures of an underlying index of business cycle conditions. We extend existing approaches by permitting for heterogenous lead–lag patterns of the various indicators along the business cycles. The framework is well suited for high-frequency monitoring of current economic conditions in real time – nowcasting – since inference can be conducted in the presence of mixed frequency data and irregular patterns of data availability. Our assessment of the underlying index of business cycle conditions is accurate and more timely than popular alternatives, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). A formal real-time forecasting evaluation shows that the framework produces well-calibrated probability nowcasts that resemble the consensus assessment of the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

In view of discussion of two crises, Asian Financial crisis, 1997 and global meltdown, 2008 spreading over more than two decades, the objective of this article is to present econometrically whether productivity growth across countries can be a remedial measure toward tackling global recession pervaded during recent two or three decades worldwide and also to shed light on the aspect of whether productivity can truly act as a driver of growth of selected six economies like Korea Republic, Japan, India, China, USA, UK, and world economy as a whole. The panel data for the six selected countries for the period 1990–2018 were constructed keeping eyes on the 1997 Asian financial crisis and then the 2008–09 global economic crisis and a random effects model was applied after Hausman test. The empirical findings disclosed that the impacts on the growth of economies (represented by growth of GDP) from the growth rates of the manufacturing sector, labor productivity of manufacturing sector, and labor quantity are positive and statistically significant; while the effects of growth of the capital deepening and labor composition on economic growth of those sampled countries are statistically significant but negative. Some key factors that are likely to affect future productivity performance are centered on some issues like facilitating global learning spillovers; allowing productive firms to thrive; and making the most of human capital that should be taken care of.

This introduction summarizes each of the papers in Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics. It begins with a brief overview of the core ideas and development of modern Austrian macroeconomics, focusing on its theory of the business cycle. The papers are then discussed by parts, starting with the papers on Austrian monetary and business cycle theory, followed by those addressing the relationship between the US and Canadian economic performance, and concluding with the three papers on the political economy of regulation and crisis.

Since Hayek’s pioneering work in the 1930s, the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) has been presented as a disequilibrium theory populated by less-than-perfectly rational agents. In contrast, we maintain that (1) the Austrian business cycle theory is consistent with rational expectations and (2) the post-boom adjustment process can be understood in an equilibrium framework. Hence, we offer a new interpretation of the existing theory. In doing so, we also address concerns raised with Garrison’s (2001) diagrammatic approach, wherein the economy moves beyond the production possibilities frontier. Our interpretation might accurately be described as a monetary disequilibrium approach grounded in an implicit general equilibrium framework with positive costs of reallocation.

Lester and Wolff (2013) find little empirical support for the Austrian business cycle theory. According to their analysis, an unexpected monetary shock does not alter the structure of production in a way consistent with the Austrian view. Rather than increasing production in early and late stages relative to middle stages, they find the opposite – a positive monetary shock typically decreases production in early and late stages relative to middle stages. We argue that the measures of production and prices employed by Lester and Wolff (2013) are constructed in such a way that makes them inappropriate for assessing the empirical relevance of the Austrian business cycle theory’s unique features. After describing how these measures are constructed and why using ratios of stages is problematic, we use a structural vector autoregression to consider the effects of a monetary shock on each stage of the production process. We show that, with a clearer understanding of what is actually being measured by the stage of process data, the results are consistent with (but not exclusive to) the Austrian view.

Conventional wisdom predicts that changes in macroeconomic conditions significantly affect income inequality. In this paper, we hypothesize that the way in which macroeconomic conditions affect inequality depends on how these conditions influence the constituents of total inequality: inequality of opportunity (IO) and inequality of effort (IE). Using the PSID database for the United States (1970–2009), we first decompose total inequality into these components. Then, we specify a dynamic model that relates each inequality component to a set of macroeconomic factors. Apart from real GDP and inflation rates, the most widely used factors in the literature, we also consider outstanding consumer credits and public welfare and health care expenditures. We find that real GDP and outstanding credits have a negative and significant effect upon IO and IE, while inflation has a positive and significant effect only on IE, and welfare expenditures have a negative and significant effect only on IO.

The purpose of the chapter is to study dynamics of development of economic conflicts and to develop a conceptual model of conflict of socio-economic system as an analog to the model of economic cycle.

The author compiles and analyzes the existing conceptual static model of conflict of a socio-economic system. The theoretical basis of the research includes the works of modern authors that reflect provisions of the theory of cycles and devoted to cyclic fluctuations of socio-economic systems. The methodology of the chapter includes the method of dynamic modeling of the process of development of socio-economic systems and the method of formalization (graphic presentation of the obtained results and conclusions). Also, the author uses the complex of general scientific methods within the systemic approach – induction, deduction, analysis, and synthesis.

It is substantiated that the existing conceptual static model of economic conflict, which treats it as a non-recurrent phenomenon in socio-economic system, contradicts its dynamic nature. Instead of this, similarly to the model of economic cycle, a conceptual dynamic model of conflict of socio-economic system is developed, which treats economic conflict as a process that develops according to a certain algorithm and is constantly repeated.

The offered conceptual model of conflict of a socio-economic system as an analogue of the model of economic cycle allows specifying the methodology of studying economic crises, which are manifestations/examples of economic conflicts. This model emphasizes the dichotomic nature of economic conflict (its probable negative or positive consequences), which allows for more precise treatment of economic crisis – which is usually considered to be a negative phenomenon. According to the offered model, crisis is not a phase of economic cycle but socio-economic process that is characterized by cyclic fluctuations. As is expected, the developed model will allow describing the practice of development of modern socio-economic systems with higher precision.