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The aim of this paper is to provide up‐to‐date discussion of the types of factors used to assess sexual offenders risk.

The current status of the factors used to assess risk in sexual offenders is examined.

Risk factors broadly fall into two categories: static factors (i.e. generally unchangeable information such as previous offence history) from which a number of actuarial scales have been developed; and dynamic factors (i.e. psychological dispositions) that are typically identified in treatment. It is suggested that these risk factors are artefacts of the same behavioural and psychological vulnerabilities at different stages of assessment, with static factors acting as markers for underlying dispositions, while dynamic factors are the underlying dispositions.

The paper discusses in some detail the status of age as a risk factor, where even though it is typically considered a static risk factor in a number of actuarial scales (allowance typically being made if individuals are over/under 25), there is a dynamic element (i.e. change with age or the passage of time) to this aspect of assessment.

This paper may be useful to practitioners working in the field, in terms of providing a useful heuristic framework for risk conceptualisation.

Managers of megaprojects face social risk management challenges throughout the various design, construction, and operation stages, owing to the various conflicts of interest among stakeholders, public skepticism, and opposition. However, most existing studies have not focused on the dynamic analysis of integrating social risks in these stages. This study developed a dynamic analysis approach to explore the dynamics of critical social risk factors and related stakeholders of megaprojects and built the managerial maps for various stakeholders.

Based on the social analysis network (SNA), a dynamic network analysis approach for understanding the dynamics of social risk and related stakeholders has been developed by literature and case analysis. The approach comprises the following steps: (1) generating social risk–stakeholder networks in different stages; (2) analysis of the critical stakeholders and social risk factors; (3) dynamic analysis of social risk factors; and (4) developing social risk management maps for various stakeholders. To verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the approach, 40 megaprojects from China were analyzed.

According to the results, the local government is a critical stakeholder during all stages, inadequate information promotion (IIP) and imperfect communication and coordination mechanism (ICCM) are key social risk sources throughout the megaproject life cycle. Furthermore, the management maps for government organizations, project implementation groups, and external stakeholders were constructed.

This research has three contributions. First, a dynamic analysis approach of stakeholder-associated social risks in megaprojects is developed, which enriches the social risk management theory of megaprojects and provides inspiration for future research focus. Second, the social risk–stakeholder networks and critical social risks in different stages are confirmed to provide a more valid and accurate picture of social risk management in megaprojects. Third, the social risk managerial maps for different stakeholders built in this research will be beneficial for governments, project implementation groups, and external stakeholders to optimize management strategies.

Purpose – This research pinpoints the limitations of conventional models for evaluating the performance of hedge funds and attempts to provide a new framework for modeling the dynamics of risk structures of hedge funds.

Methodology/approach – This chapter aims to explore how the systematic risk exposures of hedge funds vary over time and depend on exogenous variables that managers are supposed to use in their dynamic investment strategies. To achieve this, we used a Bayesian time-varying CAPM-based beta model within a state space technology.

Findings – The results showed that the volatility, term spread rate, and shocks in liquidity influence significantly on the time variation of hedge funds. Besides, the dynamics of beta indicates that the transmission channels of systematic risk are mainly the leverage levels of hedge funds and liquidity shocks.

Originality/value of chapter – These results are original because they help to explain how expected and unexpected hedge fund returns are correlated with the systematic risk factors via the beta dynamics.

The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive validity of the revised Problem Identification Checklist (PIC‐R) in predicting inpatient and community violence using a retrospective design. The Historical Scale (H‐Scale) of the HCR‐20 was employed to control for static risk factors. The predictive accuracy between predictors and outcome measures was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. The PIC‐R significantly predicted inpatient violence (AUC range 0.77‐0.92) over a 12‐month follow‐up period but did not predict community violence. Conversely, the H‐Scale significantly predicted community violence (AUC 0.82) but did not predict inpatient violence over a 12‐month follow‐up period. The findings offer preliminary validation for the predictive accuracy of the PIC‐R for violence in a UK inpatient population. Additionally, the findings suggest that short‐term risk of violence within a psychiatric inpatient population may be more related to dynamic and clinical risk variables rather than to static ones.

The classification of criminal acts as violent or nonviolent should be a keystone of actuarial predictors of violent recidivism, as it affects their outcome measure and scoring of criminal history, thus influencing many decisions about sentencing, release and treatment allocation. Examination of existing actuarial and clinical violence risk assessment tools and research studies reveals considerable variation in the classifications used. This paper aims to use large samples to develop an alternative, empirically grounded classification that can be used to improve actuarial predictive scores within the offender assessment system (OASys), the tool used by the National Offender Management Service of England and Wales to assess static and dynamic risk.

Two analytical steps are implemented. First, to identify offences that frequently involve violent acts, 230,334 OASys cases are analyzed for indicators of violent content. Second, the ability of dynamic and static risk factors to predict reoffending for various offence types is investigated, analyzing 26,619 OASys cases that have official recidivism data.

The resulting empirical classification of violent offences adds public order, criminal damage, threats/harassment, robbery/aggravated burglary and weapon possession offences to the central group of homicide and assault offences. The need to assess risk of sexual recidivism separately is discussed.

This study has successfully produced an offence classification for use in a new predictor of violent recidivism. The use of empirical methods to select these offences helps to maximise predictive validity.

While there is a significant proportion of people with a mild intellectual disability (MID) or borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) who commit sexual offenses, little research has focused on the risk factors for sexual recidivism in people with MID-BIF. The purpose of this paper is to compare the scores on the STATIC-99R and STABLE-2007 between persons with sexual offense histories with and without MID-BIF.

Data using the STATIC-99R and STABLE-2007 were collected in 85 male patients divided into an MID-BIF group (IQ 50–85, n=50) and comparison group (IQ>95, n=35).

The MID-BIF group and comparison group did not differ significantly on the static risk factors and total score of the STATIC-99R. However, of the 13 dynamic risk factors of the STABLE-2007, the MID-BIF group scored significantly higher on the items Impulsive acts, Poor problem solving skills and Lack of concern for others, while the comparison group scored significantly higher on the item Deviant sexual preference.

The higher score on a number of dynamic risk factors for patients with MID-BIF could partly be explained by the characteristics associated with MID-BIF. Although dynamic criminogenic risk factors which are usually identified as targets for treatment appear the same for people with and without MID-BIF who commit sexual offenses, adaptations to the modality of treatment will still need to be made for people with MID-BIF.

The purpose of this paper is to consolidate and evaluate the available research on animal abuse recidivism.

A narrative review of the animal abuse literature was conducted. Articles were included if they provided data/estimates of the rates of recidivism, findings regarding the static, dynamic and/or protective factors associated with animal abuse recidivism and available risk assessment tools, specifically for use with individuals who have a history of animal abuse.

The literature review highlighted high rates of reoffending amongst those who have harmed animals. Many risk and protective factors associated with animal abuse were common to the wider offending behaviour literature (e.g. antisocial attitudes, relationship issues), but more robust research is needed to highlight any distinct characteristics. Lastly, the review reports two risk assessment tools designed specifically for this offending group.

Clinicians and criminal justice personnel base their sentencing, detention and treatment decisions, at least in part, on the recidivism literature. This review provides a consolidation of the evidence base as an aide memoire for practitioners.

History of animal abuse is a risk factor for future animal harm specifically, and interpersonal violence more broadly. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first literature review that presents the key research evidence on risk/protective factors and relevant risk assessment tools that can inform intervention planning to reduce risk of reoffending towards animals and humans alike when practitioners encounter clients who have a history of harming animals.

Offenders with intellectual disability (ID) have been largely neglected in past forensic literature on assessment of dynamic risk factors. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START), in a sample of males with IDs in a low-secure hospital (n=28).

A prospective analysis was conducted, with START scores as the predictor variables, and the number of recorded aversive incidents as the outcome measure.

Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that total START risk scores had a significant high predictive accuracy for incidents of physical aggression to others (area under the curve (AUC)=0.710, p<0.001) and property damage/theft (AUC=0.730, p<0.001), over a 30-day period, reducing to medium predictive validity over a 90-day period. Medium predictive validity was also identified for incidents of verbal aggression, suicide, self-harm, and stalking and intimidation. START strength scores were also predictive of overt aggression (AUC=0.716), possible reasons for this are explored.

The small sample size limits the generalisability of the findings, and further research is required.

The paper offers preliminary support for the use of the START with ID offenders in low-secure settings. Given the lack of validation of any previous dynamic risk assessment tools, multi-disciplinary teams in such settings now have the option to use a tool which has potentially good validity with an ID population.

This study represents the first attempt to examine the predictive validity of the START with ID offenders, and a step forward in the understanding of dynamic risk factors for violence in this population. The significant predictive relationship with incidents of physical aggression and property damage offers clinicians a preliminary evidence base supporting its use in low-secure settings.

The assessment of risk of recidivism in sexual offenders is fundamental to clinical practice. It is widely accepted that, compared with actuarial measures of risk, unaided clinical judgment has generally been found to be of low reliability. Consequently, the literature has shown a surge in actuarial measures. However, a major difficulty in assessing risk in sex offenders is the low base rate, leading to an increased likelihood of making a false positive predictive error. To overcome this, risk assessment studies are increasingly using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), which displays the relationship between level of risk and decision choice. This note summarises the methodological issues in measuring predictive accuracy in assessing risk of re‐offending in sexual offenders, and identifies from the literature both static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism.

The legal system’s use of risk assessment has grown exponentially over the past several decades. Empirically validated risk measures are commonly implemented in parole, bail, civil commitment, and presentence proceedings. Despite their growing popularity, both policy-makers and legal scholars question their moral and legal acceptability, particularly in presentence proceedings. The purpose of this paper is to assess the current role of risk assessment in sentencing through an examination of the instrument currently under construction in the state of Pennsylvania.

Drawing on the current state of the literature, this paper evaluates the current use of risk assessment in criminal sentencing and discusses its consequences, both positive and negative.

Four areas for improvement in the use of risk assessment in sentencing were identified. Recommendations for change are proposed.

While the use of risk assessment within the legal system has significantly increased over the past several decades, the incorporation of risk assessment in presentence proceedings is a relatively new practice. This paper provides readers with insight on the appropriateness of using risk assessment in this context and provides suggestions for reducing ethical concerns. Recommendations for increasing the validity and clinical utility of these instruments are also discussed.

Although the literature on the use of risk assessment in legal proceedings is dense, relatively little is written about their use in criminal sentencing. This paper introduces readers to this concept by examining a risk measure proposed for use in the state of Pennsylvania’s presentence proceedings. The authors discuss concerns and propose recommendations for the future use of risk assessment in this setting.