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Article
Publication date: 11 July 2016

Shuyun Ren and Tsan-Ming Choi

Panel data-based demand forecasting models have been widely adopted in various industrial settings over the past few decades. Despite being a highly versatile and…

Abstract

Purpose

Panel data-based demand forecasting models have been widely adopted in various industrial settings over the past few decades. Despite being a highly versatile and intuitive method, in the literature, there is a lack of comprehensive review examining the strengths, the weaknesses, and the industrial applications of panel data-based demand forecasting models. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap by reviewing and exploring the features of various main stream panel data-based demand forecasting models. A novel process, in the form of a flowchart, which helps practitioners to select the right panel data models for real world industrial applications, is developed. Future research directions are proposed and discussed.

Design/methodology/approach

It is a review paper. A systematically searched and carefully selected number of panel data-based forecasting models are examined analytically. Their features are also explored and revealed.

Findings

This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. A novel model selection process is developed to assist decision makers to select the right panel data models for their specific demand forecasting tasks. The strengths, weaknesses, and industrial applications of different panel data-based demand forecasting models are found. Future research agenda is proposed.

Research limitations/implications

This review covers most commonly used and important panel data-based models for demand forecasting. However, some hybrid models, which combine the panel data-based models with other models, are not covered.

Practical implications

The reviewed panel data-based demand forecasting models are applicable in the real world. The proposed model selection flowchart is implementable in practice and it helps practitioners to select the right panel data-based models for the respective industrial applications.

Originality/value

This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. It is original.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 116 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

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Abstract

Details

Panel Data Econometrics Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-836-0

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Article
Publication date: 10 August 2020

Rohit Apurv and Shigufta Hena Uzma

The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries. The effect is examined for each country separately and also collectively by combining each country.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square regression method is applied to examine the effects of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth for each country. Panel data techniques such as panel least square method, panel least square fixed-effect model and panel least square random effect model are used to examine the collective impact by combining all countries in BRICS. The dynamic panel model is also incorporated for analysis in the study.

Findings

The results of the study are mixed. The association between infrastructure investment and development and economic growth for countries within BRICS is not robust. There is an insignificant relationship between infrastructure investment and development and economic growth in Brazil and South Africa. Energy and transportation infrastructure investment and development lead to economic growth in Russia. Telecommunication infrastructure investment and development and economic growth have a negative relationship in India, whereas there is a negative association between transport infrastructure investment and development and economic growth in China. Panel data results conclude that energy infrastructure investment and development lead to economic growth, whereas telecommunication infrastructure investment and development are significant and negatively linked with economic growth.

Originality/value

The study is novel as time series analysis and panel data analysis are used, taking the time span for 38 years (1980–2017) to investigate the influence of infrastructure investment and development on economic growth in BRICS Countries. Time-series regression analysis is used to test the impact for individual countries separately, whereas panel data regression analysis is used to examine the impact collectively for all countries in BRICS.

Details

Indian Growth and Development Review, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8254

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Book part
Publication date: 6 August 2014

Kenneth Y. Chay and Dean R. Hyslop

We examine the roles of sample initial conditions and unobserved individual effects in consistent estimation of the dynamic binary response panel data model. Different…

Abstract

We examine the roles of sample initial conditions and unobserved individual effects in consistent estimation of the dynamic binary response panel data model. Different specifications of the model are estimated using female welfare and labor force participation data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. These include alternative random effects (RE) models, in which the conditional distributions of both the unobserved heterogeneity and the initial conditions are specified, and fixed effects (FE) conditional logit models that make no assumptions on either distribution. There are several findings. First, the hypothesis that the sample initial conditions are exogenous is rejected by both samples. Misspecification of the initial conditions results in drastically overstated estimates of the state dependence and understated estimates of the short- and long-run effects of children on labor force participation. The FE conditional logit estimates are similar to the estimates from the RE model that is flexible with respect to both the initial conditions and the correlation between the unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates. For female labor force participation, there is evidence that fertility choices are correlated with both unobserved heterogeneity and pre-sample participation histories.

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Book part
Publication date: 21 November 2014

Cheng Hsiao

This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and…

Abstract

This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and over time to obtain valid inference for “structures” that are common across individuals and over time. We consider issues of (i) estimating vector autoregressive models; (ii) testing of unit root or cointegration; (iii) statistical inference for dynamic simultaneous equations models; (iv) policy evaluation; and (v) aggregation and prediction.

Details

Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-183-1

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Article
Publication date: 21 July 2021

Olumide Olusegun Olaoye, Ambreen Noman and Ezekiel Olamide Abanikanda

The study examines whether the growth effect of government spending is contingent on the level of institutional environment prevalent in Economic Community of West African…

Abstract

Purpose

The study examines whether the growth effect of government spending is contingent on the level of institutional environment prevalent in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts the more refined and more appropriate dynamic threshold panel by Seo and Shin (2016) and made applicable be Seo et al. (2019). The technique models a nonlinear asymmetric dynamics and cross-sectional heterogeneity simultaneously in a dynamic threshold panel data framework.

Findings

The results show that there is a threshold effect in the government spending-growth relationship. Specifically, the authors found that the impact of government spending on economic growth is positive and statistically significant only above a certain threshold level of institutional development. Below that threshold, the effect of government spending on growth is insignificant and negative at best. The findings suggest that government spending-growth nexus is contingent on the level of Institutional quality.

Originality/value

Unlike previous studies that adopt the linear interaction model which pre-impose a priori conditional restrictions, this study adopts the dynamic threshold panel framework which allows the lagged dependent variable and endogenous covariates.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 16 May 2016

Xinzhong Li and Seung-Rok Park

The purpose of this paper is to indicate trade characteristics of Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in China and examine the dynamic interaction between FDI inflows…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to indicate trade characteristics of Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in China and examine the dynamic interaction between FDI inflows and China’s international trade through empirical analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

At first, this paper builds the probability distribution model (Poisson and negative binomial (NB)) to capture the characteristics of spatial distribution of all kinds of FDI firms in Chinese cities and provinces based on count data, so as to indicate the potentials for further introducing FDI inflows in China; Second, this paper investigates the effects of trade on FDI firms inflows based on probability regress model (Binary Logit, Tobit, NB, Poisson, zero inflated negative binomial) and shows how international trade accelerates the different kinds of FDI firms to agglomerate in Eastern, Middle and Western region by the endowments of factors; third, this paper empirically examines the magnitude and characteristics of trade effects generated by FDI inflows by building dynamic panel model based on continuous data.

Findings

First, statistical tests of probability distribution model based on count data show that there are characteristics of spatial agglomeration of FDI firms such as manufacture firm, R & D firm, managing and marketing firm and total sectors, which obey NB distribution as whole; Second, this study indicate that FDI inflows have strong positive effects on the international trade in China’s provinces and on China’s regional trade, and that most of foreign firms in China are export oriented being strongly characterized as labor-intensive industries, especially, contributions of FDI to imports are greater than the contributions of FDI to exports in China’s Middle and Western trade, and the growth of FDI trade in China’s trade volume has been strong over the past years; third, the empirical results of models based on count data and continuous data indicate that FDI inflows have significantly positive relationship with international trade, that is, the relationship between FDI and international trade in the case of China is the characteristics with complement and imports substituting relationship.

Research limitations/implications

Because of mixed data set for FDI inflows of processing and assembling trade and production-oriented FDI, efficiency-seeking and knowledge or technology – intensive FDI inflows in the past 36 years, the paper only investigate characteristics of FDI inflows in China before the turning point of financial crisis, but it is important for capturing the whole picture of trade characteristics of FDI inflows in China.

Practical implications

The derived quantitative results imply that there are still greater potentials for further introducing FDI inflows in China, and decision-maker should make policy of introducing FDI inflows which are favorable to supporting innovative activities and economic agglomeration, and preferably encourage efficiency-seeking and export-oriented FDI inflows so as enhance quality and efficiency of economic growth, which are also helpful to accelerate upgrade of Chinese industry and gradually shorten gap of growth among Eastern, Middle and Western region.

Social implications

FDI inflows in China not only stimulate the remarkable growth of bilateral trade between host country and home country, but also promote the growth of international trade between China and the rest of the world. Thus, policies of bilateral or multilateral free-trade and investment area should be encouraged, which will be also favorable to promote the growth and welfare in all the regions.

Originality/value

This paper demonstrates that spatial distributions of FDI firms in Chinese cities and provinces obey NB probability distribution pattern, and puts forward the methodology of model based on count data and continuous data. Besides, this paper quantitatively indicates trade characteristics of FDI inflows in China as well as the dynamic interaction between FDI inflows and China’s international trade.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

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Book part
Publication date: 6 August 2014

Lorenzo Cappellari and Stephen P. Jenkins

We analyse the dynamics of social assistance benefit (SA) receipt among working-age adults in Britain between 1991 and 2005. The decline in the annual SA receipt rate was…

Abstract

We analyse the dynamics of social assistance benefit (SA) receipt among working-age adults in Britain between 1991 and 2005. The decline in the annual SA receipt rate was driven by a decline in the SA entry rate rather than by the SA exit rate (which also declined). We examine the determinants of these trends using a multivariate dynamic random effects probit model of SA receipt probabilities applied to British Household Panel Survey data. We show how the model may be used to derive year-by-year predictions of aggregate SA entry, exit and receipt rates. The analysis highlights the importance of the decline in the unemployment rate over the period and other changes in the socio-economic environment including two reforms to the income maintenance system in the 1990s and also illustrates the effects of self-selection (‘creaming’) on observed and unobserved characteristics.

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Book part
Publication date: 23 June 2016

Liangjun Su and Yonghui Zhang

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and…

Abstract

In this paper, we study a partially linear dynamic panel data model with fixed effects, where either exogenous or endogenous variables or both enter the linear part, and the lagged-dependent variable together with some other exogenous variables enter the nonparametric part. Two types of estimation methods are proposed for the first-differenced model. One is composed of a semiparametric GMM estimator for the finite-dimensional parameter θ and a local polynomial estimator for the infinite-dimensional parameter m based on the empirical solutions to Fredholm integral equations of the second kind, and the other is a sieve IV estimate of the parametric and nonparametric components jointly. We study the asymptotic properties for these two types of estimates when the number of individuals N tends to and the time period T is fixed. We also propose a specification test for the linearity of the nonparametric component based on a weighted square distance between the parametric estimate under the linear restriction and the semiparametric estimate under the alternative. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the proposed estimators and tests perform well in finite samples. We apply the model to study the relationship between intellectual property right (IPR) protection and economic growth, and find that IPR has a non-linear positive effect on the economic growth rate.

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Article
Publication date: 14 August 2020

Olumide Olaoye and Oluwatosin Aderajo

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the quality of different dimensions of institutional and economic growth in a panel of 15 member ECOWAS.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the quality of different dimensions of institutional and economic growth in a panel of 15 member ECOWAS.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts Driscoll and Kraay′s nonparametric covariance matrix estimator, and the spatial error model to account for cross-section dependency, cross-country heterogeneity and spatial dependence inherent in empirical modelling, which has largely been ignored in previous studies. This is because, the likelihood that corruption and human capital cluster in space is very high because factors that affect these phenomena disperse across borders. Similarly, to test the threshold effect, the study adopts the more refined and more appropriate dynamic panel data which models a nonlinear asymmetric dynamics and cross-sectional heterogeneity, simultaneously, in a dynamic threshold panel data framework.

Findings

The empirical evidence supports findings by previous researchers that better-quality political and economic institutions can have positive effects on economic growth. Similarly, our results support a nonlinear relationship between political institutions and economic institution, confirming the “hierarchy of institution hypothesis” in ECOWAS. Specifically, the findings show that economic institutions will only have the desired economic outcome in ECOWAS, only when political institution is above a certain threshold.

Originality/value

Unlike previous studies which assume cross-sectional and spatial independence, the authors account for cross-section dependency and cross-country heterogeneity inherent in empirical modelling.

Peer review

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-10-2019-0630

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 47 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

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