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To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International Roughness Index (IRI). Nonetheless, the behavior of those parameters throughout pavement life cycles is associated with high uncertainty, resulting from various interrelated factors that fluctuate over time. This study aims to propose the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks for the development of time-series prediction models to probabilistically forecast road distress parameters.

While Bayesian belief network (BBN) has the merit of capturing uncertainty associated with variables in a domain, dynamic BBNs, in particular, are deemed ideal for forecasting road distress over time due to its Markovian and invariant transition probability properties. Four dynamic BBN models are developed to represent rutting, deflection, cracking and IRI, using pavement data collected from 32 major road sections in the United Arab Emirates between 2013 and 2019. Those models are based on several factors affecting pavement deterioration, which are classified into three categories traffic factors, environmental factors and road-specific factors.

The four developed performance prediction models achieved an overall precision and reliability rate of over 80%.

The proposed approach provides flexibility to illustrate road conditions under various scenarios, which is beneficial for pavement maintainers in obtaining a realistic representation of expected future road conditions, where maintenance efforts could be prioritized and optimized.

Previous dynamic prediction models rarely handle multi-period data with different intervals, and the large-scale patient hospital records are not effectively used to improve the prediction performance. This paper aims to focus on the prediction of cardiovascular disease using the improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model.

A new model based on the traditional LSTM was proposed to predict cardiovascular disease. The irregular time interval is smoothed to obtain the time parameter vector, and it is used as the input of the forgetting gate of LSTM to overcome the prediction obstacle caused by the irregular time interval.

The experimental results show that the dynamic prediction model proposed in this paper obtained a significant better classification performance compared with the traditional LSTM model.

In this paper, the authors improved the LSTM by smoothing the irregular time between different medical stages of the patient to obtain the temporal feature vector.

Nature-based tourism (NBT) blossoming requires sound monitoring models to maximize its potential in the tourism industry. Cooperation of different segments from nature to economy will lead to a sustainable NBT. Therefore, the qualitative and quantitative relation between these subdivisions has to be investigated.

This paper proposes an advanced NBT model for the design of an optimum tourism system. To this end, Bayesian network (BN) has been implemented to characterize the impact of each subsector on NBT.

The outcomes of this study can help the tourism managers, policymakers and related organizations to find the optimum approach to achieve a continuous improvement in the system. To demonstrate the applicability of the methodology, two cases of observations are considered.

The originality of the work is well demonstrated in the literature review of the paper.

Digital twin (DT) is an emerging technology that enables sophisticated interaction between physical objects and their virtual replicas. Although DT has recently gained significant attraction in both industry and academia, there is no systematic understanding of DT from its development history to its different concepts and applications in disparate disciplines. The majority of DT literature focuses on the conceptual development of DT frameworks for a specific implementation area. Hence, this paper provides a state-of-the-art review of DT history, different definitions and models, and six types of key enabling technologies. The review also provides a comprehensive survey of DT applications from two perspectives: (1) applications in four product-lifecycle phases, i.e. product design, manufacturing, operation and maintenance, and recycling and (2) applications in four categorized engineering fields, including aerospace engineering, tunneling and underground engineering, wind engineering and Internet of things (IoT) applications. DT frameworks, characteristic components, key technologies and specific applications are extracted for each DT category in this paper. A comprehensive survey of the DT references reveals the following findings: (1) The majority of existing DT models only involve one-way data transfer from physical entities to virtual models and (2) There is a lack of consideration of the environmental coupling, which results in the inaccurate representation of the virtual components in existing DT models. Thus, this paper highlights the role of environmental factor in DT enabling technologies and in categorized engineering applications. In addition, the review discusses the key challenges and provides future work for constructing DTs of complex engineering systems.

Buildings use approximately 40% of global energy and are responsible for almost a third of the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions. They also utilise about 60% of the world’s electricity. In the last decade, stringent building regulations have led to significant improvements in the quality of the thermal characteristics of many building envelopes. However, similar considerations have not been paid to the number and activities of occupants in a building, which play an increasingly important role in energy consumption, optimisation processes, and indoor air quality. More than 50% of the energy consumption could be saved in Demand Controlled Ventilation (DCV) if accurate information about the number of occupants is readily available (Mysen et al., 2005). But due to privacy concerns, designing a precise occupancy sensing/counting system is a highly challenging task. While several studies count the number of occupants in rooms/zones for the optimisation of energy consumption, insufficient information is available on the comparison, analysis and pros and cons of these occupancy estimation techniques. This paper provides a review of occupancy measurement techniques and also discusses research trends and challenges. Additionally, a novel privacy preserved occupancy monitoring solution is also proposed in this paper. Security analyses of the proposed scheme reveal that the new occupancy monitoring system is privacy preserved compared to other traditional schemes.

The present study is performed to identify the propagation mechanism of the ripple effect as well as examine the simultaneous impact of risks on supply chain (SC) performance.

A theoretical framework with many hypotheses regarding the relationships between SC risk types and performance is established. The data are collected from a large-scale survey supported by a project of the Japanese government to promote sustainable socioeconomic development for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, with the participation of 207 firms. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is used to test the hypotheses of the theoretical framework.

It is indicated that human-made risk causes operational risk, while natural risk causes both supply risk and operational risk. Furthermore, the impacts of human-made risk and natural risk on performance are amplified through operational risk.

This study is one of the first attempts that identifies the propagation mechanism of the ripple effect and examines the simultaneous impact of risks on performance in construction SCs.

Although many studies on risk management in construction SCs have been carried out, they mainly focus on risk identification or quantification of risk impact. It is observed that research on the ripple effect of disruptions has been very scarce.

This paper aims to study the reliability of the high-speed train operation control system in the Chinese Train Control System Level 3 (CTCS-3) operating mode.

Dynamic fault tree and Bayesian network method are adopted to analyze the reliability and weakness of the CTCS-3 system.

First, a physical architecture and data flow diagram of the CTCS-3 system are established according to the typical structure and functions of the CTCS-3 system. Second, the dynamic fault tree of the CTCS-3 system is constructed. Considering the prior probability of the bottom event and the existence of dynamic redundancy, the dynamic fault tree is transformed into a Bayesian net. The reliability of the CTCS-3 system is carried out based on the prior probability and the weakness that affects the reliability of the system based on the posterior probability is also analyzed by the Bayesian network. Finally, it is disclosed that the impact of the on-board subsystem on the reliability of the CTCS-3 system is generally greater than that of the ground subsystem. The two weakest modules in the onboard subsystem are the driver-machine interface (DMI) and balise transmission module (BTM) and the weakest one in the ground subsystem is Balise. The analysis results are generally consistent with the malfunctions in the field operation of China’s high-speed railway.

(1) By reasoning, the reliability of the train operation control system in the CTCS-3 operating mode meets the standard requirements.

(2) Through backward reasoning, it is found that the failure of the onboard subsystem leads to a greater probability of failure of the train control system.

(3) The DMI, BTM and automatic train protection computer unit modules are weak components in the onboard subsystem. Vital digit input&output, train interface unit and train security gateway are rarely involved in previous research, the result in this paper shows that these three modules are also weak components in the subsystem, which requires attention.

This study aims to develop an assessment methodology using a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the failure probability of oil tanker shipping firms.

This paper proposes a bankruptcy prediction model by applying the hybrid of logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic networks.

The proposed model shows its potential of contributing to a powerful tool to predict financial bankruptcy of shipping operators, and provides important insights to the maritime community as to what performance measures should be taken to ensure the shipping companies’ financial soundness under dynamic environments.

The model and its associated variables can be expanded to include more factors for an in-depth analysis in future when the detailed information at firm level becomes available.

The results of this study can be implemented to oil tanker shipping firms as a prediction tool for bankruptcy rate.

Incorporating quantitative statistical measurement, the application of BN in financial risk management provides advantages to develop a powerful early warning system in shipping, which has unique characteristics such as capital intensive and mobile assets, possibly leading to catastrophic consequences.