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The purpose of this paper is to introduce a decision support aid for deciding an overseas construction project (OCP) using an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS).

This study presents an ANFIS approach as a decision support aid for assessment of OCPs. The processing data were derived from 110 simulation cases of OCPs. In total, 21 international factors observed from a Delphi survey were determined as assessment variables to examine the cases. The experts were involved to evaluate and judge whether the company should Go or Not Go for an OCP, based on the different parameter scenarios given. To measure the performance of the ANFIS model, root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed.

The result shows that optimum ANFIS model indicating RMSE and R scores adequately near between 0 and 1, respectively, was obtained from parameter set of network algorithm with two input membership functions, Gaussian type of membership function and hybrid optimization method. When the model tested to nine real OCPs data, the result indicates 88.89 percent accurate.

The use of simulation cases as data set in development the model has several advantages. This technique can be replicated to generate other case scenarios which are not available publicly or limited in terms of quantity.

This study evidences that the developed ANFIS model can predict the decision satisfactorily. Therefore, it can help companies’ management to make preliminary assessment of an OCP.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual cost estimation (CCE) model for building project by using a pragmatic approach, which is a mix of tools drawn from multiple regression analysis (MRA) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to improve the accuracy of cost estimation at an early stage.

This paper presents a set of MRA and integrating MRA with ANFIS or MRANFIS. A simultaneous regression analysis was developed to determine the main cost factors from 12 variables as input variables in the ANFIS model. Cost data from 78 projects of state building in West Sumatra, Indonesia were used to indicate the advantages of the proposed model.

The result shows that the proposed model, MRANFIS, has successfully improved the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) by 2.8 percent from MRA of 10.7–7.9 percent for closeness of fit to the model data and by 3.1 percent from MRA of 9.8–6.7 percent for prediction performance to the new data.

Because the significant variables are different for each building type, the model may be not appropriate for other buildings depending on the characteristics of building. The models can be used and analyzed based on the own historical project data for each case so that the model can be applied.

The study thus provides better accuracy of CCE at an early stage for state building projects in West Sumatra, Indonesia by using the integrated model of MRA and ANFIS.