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To thrive, any individual, organization, or society needs to separate true from false expertise. This chapter provides a selective review of research examining self and social judgments of human capital – that is, expertise, knowledge, and skill. In particular, it focuses on the problem of the “flawed evaluator”: most people judging expertise often have flawed expertise themselves, and thus their assessments of self and others are imperfect in profound and systematic ways.

The review focuses mostly on empirical work specifically building on the “Dunning–Kruger effect” in self-perceptions of expertise (Kruger & Dunning, 1999). This selective review, thus, focuses on patterns of error in such judgments.

Because judges of expertise have flawed expertise themselves, they fail to recognize incompetence in themselves. Because of their flaws, most people also fail to recognize genius in other people and superior ideas.

The review suggests that organizations have trouble recognizing those exhibiting the highest levels of expertise in their midst. People in organizations also fail to identify the best advice and correct flawed ideas. Organizations may also rely on the “wisdom of crowds” strategy in situations in which that strategy actually misleads because too few people identify the best idea available.

This study compared the results of self-report and ability-based tests of problem-solving abilities of 144 hospitality managers working at hotels and restaurants through an online survey. In the first stage of the study, the managers were asked to fill in the self-report problem-solving ability scale by Tesone et al. (2010). In the second stage of the study, the managers were asked to respond to questions in a case-study-based problem-solving test.

Problem-solving is a key aspect of business process management. This study aims to investigate and compare hospitality managers' actual and claimed (self-report) problem-solving abilities. A lack of unawareness of the actual level of skills may be an important problem as managers who tend to have inflated self-efficacy beliefs are less likely to allocate resources, e.g. time, money and effort, to develop a particular skill or ability they lack. They are also more likely to take risks regarding that skill or ability.

The results of the study showed that there was a major difference between the results of the self-report test and the actual test. This meant that the managers who participated in the study had inflated self-efficacy beliefs regarding their problem-solving abilities, i.e. they operated under the influence of the Dunning–Kruger effect. The study showed that self-report tests that are commonly used in businesses in recruitment and promotion may not provide a correct level of people's abilities. In general, managers who have inflated self-efficacy beliefs are less likely to be interested in developing a particular skill due to the overconfidence arising from their inflated self-efficacy beliefs. The study showed that managers were less likely to allocate resources, e.g. time, money and effort, to develop a particular skill they lack and are more likely to take risks regarding that particular skill.

Managers in the hospitality industry appear to lack problem solving-abilities. While the hospitality managers assigned high marks for their problem-solving abilities in a self-report problem-solving scale and appeared to be performing significantly good overall in problem-solving, they performed poorly in an actual problem solving exercise. It is recommended that businesses rather than depending on self-report problem-solving scales, they should resort to ability-based scales or exercises that actually measure managers' problem-solving abilities. Also, as managers who had formal tourism and hospitality education performed poorly, tourism and hospitality programme managers at universities are recommend to review their syllabi and curriculum so as to help support their graduates' problem-solving abilities.

The study is original as no previous study compared managers' problem-solving abilities by using self-report and ability-based tests. The study has implications for researchers in terms of developing knowledge, ability and skill-based scales in the future. The study has also significant practical implications for the practitioners.

In the face of increasing political polarization worldwide, this study explores whether people create biased perceptions of political knowledge and how this affects their selection and evaluation of political content on YouTube.

For this study, an online experiment was conducted with 441 panels of South Korean respondents. In the first phase, participants answered 10 questions designed to capture their level of objective political knowledge, and for each question, they indicated whether they had responded to that question correctly as a means of measuring their subjective political knowledge. In the second phase, two types of YouTube thumbnails were presented to represent progressive and conservative claims on two controversial political issues, and participants rated and selected the content they would like to see.

Participants with low political knowledge perceived their knowledge as more than it really was. In contrast, participants with high political knowledge perceived their political knowledge as less than it really was. This biased perception of political knowledge influences respondents' choice and evaluation of political YouTube channel videos.

At a time when political polarization is increasing around the world, this study sought to explore how perceptions of political knowledge differ from actual political knowledge by applying the Dunning-Kruger effect. The authors also used political YouTube channels, whose role in forming public opinion and political influence is rapidly growing, to study the behavior and attitudes of a group of Korean respondents in the media according to their actual and perceived level of political literacy.

Wine producers and marketing professionals increasingly recognize the significance of online wine reviews. Emotions have long been acknowledged as influential in online review behaviors. However, considering the multisensory nature of the wine experience, consumers’ wine expertise also plays a substantial role. Hence, this study aims to examine the online review behaviors exhibited by wine consumers through the dual lens of wine expertise and emotionality.

Two studies were conducted to address the research question. Study 1 explored the relationship among expertise, emotionality and review behaviors using a panel data model, with a data set consisting of 4,600,922 reviews from Vivino.com. Study 2 used a multigroup structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis using data obtained from an online survey. Study 2 aimed to investigate the interactive impact of emotionality and expertise on online review intention mediated by customer engagement.

The findings from Study 1 demonstrated a positive correlation between emotionality and online wine reviews. In addition, expertise displayed a bell-shaped relationship with both emotionality and online wine reviews. Study 2, in turn, uncovered that novices and experts experienced a direct influence of emotionality on their review intentions. In contrast, for those classified as ordinary, the influence of emotionality on review intention occurred indirectly through the mediation of customer engagement.

This paper extends the current literature on online wine review by integrating the effect of emotion and expertise on online wine review behaviors, expanding the examination of Dunning–Kruger effect in the wine literature. It also adds value by introducing emotionality and the Evaluative Lexicon into the hospitality literature, extending the measurement of emotion from valence and extremity to a third dimension, emotionality, in hospitality and wine domains.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how upstream social marketing can benefit from using social media commentary to identify cognitive biases. Using reactions to leading media/news publications/articles related to climate and energy policy in Australia, this paper aims to understand underlying community cognitive biases and their reasonings.

Social listening was used to gather community commentary about climate and energy policy in Australia. This allowed the coding of natural language data to determine underlying cognitive biases inherent in the community. In all, 2,700 Facebook comments were collected from 27 news articles dated between January 2018 and March 2020 using exportcomments.com. Team coding was used to ensure consistency in interpretation.

Nine key cognitive bias were noted, including, pessimism, just-world, confirmation, optimum, curse of knowledge, Dunning–Kruger, self-serving, concision and converge biases. Additionally, the authors report on the interactive nature of these biases. Right-leaning audiences are perceived to be willfully uninformed and motivated by self-interest; centric audiences want solutions based on common-sense for the common good; and left-leaning supporters of progressive climate change policy are typically pessimistic about the future of climate and energy policy in Australia. Impacts of powerful media organization shaping biases are also explored.

Through a greater understanding of the types of cognitive biases, policy-makers are able to better design and execute influential upstream social marketing campaigns.

The study demonstrates that observing cognitive biases through social listening can assist upstream social marketing understand community biases and underlying reasonings towards climate and energy policy.

Drawing on mainstream arguments in the literature, the paper presents a coherent and holistic view on the causes of cost overruns, and the dynamics between cognitive dispositions, learning and estimation. A cost prediction model has also been developed using data mining for estimating final cost of projects. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

A mixed-method approach was adopted: a qualitative exploration of the causes of cost overrun followed by an empirical development of a final cost model using artificial neural networks.

A conceptual model to distinguish between the often conflated causes of underestimation and cost overruns on large publicly funded projects. The empirical model developed in this paper achieved an average absolute percentage error of 3.67 percent with 87 percent of the model predictions within a range of ±5 percent of the actual final cost.

The model developed can be converted to a desktop package for quick cost predictions and the generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project in a sort of what-if analysis for the purposes of comparison. The use of the model could also greatly reduce the time and resources spent on estimation.

A thorough discussion on the dynamics between cognitive dispositions, learning and cost estimation has been presented. It also presents a conceptual model for understanding two often conflated issues of cost overrun and under-estimation.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether students' self-assessment (SSA) could be used as a significant attribute to predict students' future academic achievement.

The authors address how well students can assess their abilities and study the relationship between this ability and demographic properties and previous study performance. The authors present the study results by measuring the relationship between the SSA across five different topics and comparing them with the students' performance in these topics using short tests. The test has been voluntarily taken by more than 300 students planning to enroll in the School of Business Informatics and Mathematics master's programs at the University of Mannheim.

The study results reveal which attributes are mostly associated with the accuracy level of SSA in higher education. The authors conclude that SSA, it can be valuable in predicting master's students' academic achievement when taking specific measures when designing the predictive module.

Due to time constraints, the study was restricted only to students applying to master's programs at the Faculty of Business Informatics and Mathematics at the University of Mannheim. This resulted in collecting a limited data set. Also, the scope of this study was restricted to testing the accuracy of SSA and did not test using it as an attribute for predicting students' academic achievement.

Predicting students' academic performance in higher education is beneficial from different perspectives. The literature reveals that a considerable amount of work is published to analyze and predict academic performance in higher education. However, most of the published work relies on attributes such as demographics, teachers' assessment, and examination scores for performing their prediction while neglecting the use of other forms of evaluation such as SSA or self-evaluation.

Overconfidence as an important psychological factor can also affect CEO’s cognitive preferences, while there are few studies about the impact of CEO’ overconfidence on the international expansion of companies. This paper aims to fill this gap and further discuss the moderating role of CEO’s overseas experience, CEO duality and ownership.

The authors focus on the Chinese context, collect 2008–2016 data from China's manufacturing industry as sample, use fixed effect model to analyse the effect of CEO overconfidence on international expansion strategy of Chinese firms.

The empirical results show that: CEO overconfidence positively promotes the degree of firm internationalization. CEO foreign experience positively affects the internationalization degree, but can restrain overconfidence thus negatively regulate this impact relationship. When duality is present, both CEO power and managerial discretion are pronounced and they exhibit a stronger effect. Firm’s equity nature will affect the relationship between CEOs' overconfidence and the degree of internationalization. Compared with private enterprises, CEOs in state-owned enterprises have limited power, therefore, this influence relationship is weaker.

This study has emphasized the importance of top executives' psychological characteristics on firm internationalization, which is key application and complement of upper echelons theory and fills the research gap in the literature. In this paper, the authors found the advantages of overconfidence for firms, which helps to understand the complex meaning of overconfidence. The results of moderating effect further explore the application of overconfidence in different context, which has some implications for management practice.

This study examines the association between financial literacy confidence and financial satisfaction. The authors posit that overconfident poor performers will experience greater levels of financial satisfaction and underconfident high performers will experience lower levels of financial satisfaction.

Based on the results of an objective financial literacy assessment and a subjective financial literacy assessment, variables measuring study participants' financial literacy overconfidence and financial literacy underconfidence are constructed. The variables are analyzed for their associations with financial satisfaction.

The results from the multivariate analysis suggest that financial literacy overconfidence (underconfidence) is associated positively (negatively) with higher levels of financial satisfaction and is associated negatively (positively) with lower levels of financial satisfaction.

The discussion first highlights that to increase objective financial literacy, the disconnect between subjective financial literacy assessment and objective financial literacy must be recognized. Secondly, the discussion encourages financial literacy and education programs to incorporate behavioral education, which can provide learners with an awareness of the role of financial literacy confidence when making financial decisions.

Financial literacy overconfidence can result in an inability to recognize the realities of one's financial situation. Individuals who are overconfident in their level of financial literacy preformed lower on an objective assessment of their financial literacy, yet also tended to have a greater sense of financial satisfaction. This finding not only suggests that financial literacy overconfidence results in financial ineptitude, but also suggest that financial literacy overconfidence can result in specious conclusions regarding one's financial situation. The financial literacy underconfidence finding suggests that those who are financial literate, and who are also underconfident in their financial literacy, are less likely to have high financial satisfaction.

The purpose of this study is to ascertain law enforcement cadet general knowledge of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and practical knowledge in how to apply various aspects of their profession to persons with ASD.

In total, 341 law enforcement cadet surveys administered across ten individual law enforcement cadet classes were analyzed via two individual ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models. These regression models were designed to predict changes in cadet scores on their (1) general knowledge of autism scale (i.e., general knowledge regarding autism spectrum disorder itself) and (2) interactional law enforcement knowledge of autism scale (i.e., how to apply various aspects of their job to persons with ASD).

Findings show that cadets who had a stronger confidence in their ability to interact with persons who have ASD actually knew less than their counterparts with lower reported overall confidence. However, one's confidence in their ability to identify persons with ASD was associated with having better overall general knowledge of ASD itself. Similarly, the greater one's overall confidence in interacting with persons with ASD was associated with lower interactional knowledge. In each model, general autism knowledge and interactional knowledge were positively associated.

The results of this study have implications for cadet and officer training on ASD as each need to be trained in both general knowledge of autism and interactional autism knowledge skills related to the job functions of being a LEO. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.

The literature is sparse on law enforcement knowledge of and interaction with persons who have ASD. As such, this study has the potential to make a strong impact on the literature regarding law enforcement and their knowledge and/or interactions with persons who have ASD.