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While profitability improved for a sample of 260 downscaling firms in 46 industries, productivity declined dramatically. We propose and critically examine five competing hypotheses to explain these findings: (1) learning curve effects associated with new technologies; (2) experience curve effects associated with the introduction of new products or entering new markets; (3) systemic problems within the firm; (4) unexpected loss of more productive employees, and (5) reduced commitment among remaining employees.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the problem that arises when a tenant’s space needs will likely change in the future, but the property owner would prefer to continue renting the initial space to the same tenant. The study builds upon ideas on structuring option values into initial rent and proposes a method for evaluating the value of adaptability for both the tenants and the owners.

The methodology is based on real option pricing, and it includes key variables of building adaptability, lease agreement terms and property market information. The methodology explains the importance of understanding the concept of volatility related to space needs and how it affects the tenant’s decision to either remain or vacate the rented premises. Real option pricing theory highlights the problem of using linearly growing expectations for physical assets and the obvious problems that arise with that assumption.

This paper suggests that the principles of option pricing could be used in valuing building adaptability to find the optimal initial rent from both the owner’s and the tenant’s perspective. It is pointed that the volatility of the tenant’s future space requirements should drive the effective rent paid by the tenant. The paper argues as to why the owner is better off if the tenant can downscale (with building adaptability) their current space rather than vacate the whole space. Additionally, this paper presents the reasons for why the tenant should pay more for a space that has such a downscaling option. Eventually, both the owner and the tenant are better off because, from the tenant’s perspective, unnecessary relocating costs can be avoided, and from the owner’s perspective, unnecessary re-renting costs can be avoided.

The paper demonstrates how the downscaling option creates value for both the owner and the tenant. The owner benefits from higher average occupancy rates, and during lease break points, only part of the premises has to be re-rented rather than the entire premises. When these higher occupancy rates are transferred into cash flows with relevant market parameters, it is evident how the rates create extra value for the property owner and for the tenant, subject to lease terms.

The owner benefits from the higher rent, even though there might be more lease break points where parts of the building must be rented out. If these kinds of option values can be communicated transparently, it should be possible for the owner and the tenant to agree on such terms.

This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on harvestability for sugarcane-growing regions situated between mountain ranges and the narrow east Australian coastline.

Daily rainfall simulations from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) were downscaled for seven Australian sugarcane regions (1961:2000). Unharvestable days were calculated from these 11 GCMs and compared to interpolated observed data. The historical downscaled GCM simulations were then compared to simulations under low (B1) and high (A2) emissions scenarios for the period of 2046-2065. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of paired model differences were assessed using 95 per cent bootstrapped confidence intervals.

A decrease in the number of unharvestable days for the Burdekin (winter/spring) and Bundaberg (winter) regions and an increase for the Herbert region (spring) were plausible under the A2 scenario. Spatial plots identified variability within regions. Northern and southern regions were more variable than central regions.

Changes to the frequency of unharvestable days may require a range of management adaptations such as modifying the harvest period and upgrading harvesting technologies.

The application of a targeted industry rainfall parameter (unharvestable days) obtained from downscaled climate models provided a novel approach to investigate the impacts of climate change. This research forms a baseline for industry discussion and adaptation planning towards an environmentally and economically sustainable future. The methodology outlined can easily be extended to other primary industries impacted by wet weather.

This paper aims to present a novel scheme for imposing periodic boundary conditions with downscaled macroscopic strain measures of gradient Cosserat continuum on the representative volume element (RVE) of discrete particle assembly in the frame of the second-order computational homogenization methods for granular materials.

The proposed scheme is based on the generalized Hill’s lemma of gradient Cosserat continuum and the incremental non-linear constitutive relation condensed to the peripheral particles of the RVE of discrete particle assembly. The generalized Hill’s lemma conducts to downscale the macroscopic strain or stress measures and to impose the periodic boundary conditions on the RVE boundary so that the Hill-Mandel energy equivalence condition is ensured. Because of the incremental non-linear constitutive relation condensed to the peripheral particles of the RVE, the periodic boundary displacement and traction constraints together with the downscaled macroscopic strains and strain gradients, micro-rotations and curvatures are imposed in the point-wise sense without the need of introducing the Lagrange multipliers for enforcing the periodic boundary displacement and traction constraints in a weak sense.

Numerical results demonstrate that the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed scheme in imposing the periodic boundary conditions on the RVE. The results of the RVE subjected to the periodic boundary conditions together with the displacement boundary conditions in the second-order computational homogenization for granular materials provide the desired estimations, which lie between the upper and the lower bounds provided by the displacement and the traction boundary conditions imposed on the RVE respectively.

Each grain in the particulate system under consideration is assumed to be rigid and circular.

The proposed scheme for imposing periodic boundary conditions on the RVE can be adopted solely for estimating the effective mechanical properties of granular materials and/or integrated into the frame of the second-order computational homogenization method with a nested finite element method-discrete element method solution procedure for granular materials. It will tend to provide, at least theoretically, more reasonable results for effective material properties and solutions of a macroscopic boundary value problem simulated by the computational homogenization method.

This paper presents a novel scheme for imposing periodic boundary conditions with downscaled macroscopic strain measures of gradient Cosserat continuum on the RVE of discrete particle assembly for granular materials without need of introducing Lagrange multipliers for enforcing periodic boundary conditions in a weak (integration) sense.

The purpose of this paper is to indicate the limitations of the studies that address the impact of climate change on groundwater resources and to suggest an improved approach.

A general review, both from a groundwater hydrological and a climatological viewpoint, is given, oriented on the impact of climate change on groundwater resources.

The impact of climate change on groundwater resources is not the subject of many studies in the scientific literature. Only rarely sophisticated downscaling techniques are applied to downscale estimated global circulation model (GCM) future precipitation series for a point or region of interest. Often it is not taken into account that different climate models calculate considerably different precipitation amounts (conceptual uncertainty). The joint downscaling of the meteorological variables that govern potential evapotranspiration (ET) is never done in the context of a study that assessed the impact of climate change on groundwater resources. It is desirable that actual ET is calculated in (groundwater) hydrological models on a physical basis, i.e. by coupling the energy and water balance at the Earth's surface.

This review signalises a number of problems with published studies on the impact of climate change on groundwater resources. In many studies the method to downscale meteorological variables from a climate model to a hydrological model is not adequate. ET is often calculated in a strongly simplified manner and not all hydrological processes are modelled in a fully coupled fashion. More sophisticated downscaling approaches, physically based schemes to calculate ET and well‐calibrated, integrative hydrological models are needed.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the progresses made by the Potenza province in implementing #weResilient strategy, a risk-informed sustainable development policy-making action at territorial/local levels based on a structural combination of environmental sustainability, territorial safety and climate change contrasting policies; results obtained in supporting and coordinating the municipalities of the provincial territory for creating local conditions to manage risks and sustainable development with a multiscale and multilevel holistic approach based on a wide-area outlook and so contributing directly to the SFDRR Target E, SDGs 11 and 13 and to other goals and targets; The effectiveness of the accountability system on which the approach is based.

The conceptual basis: A strong governance based on multi-stakeholder and community engagement; The interdisciplinary nature of risk; Enhancing local resilience is an essential pre-condition for achieving all of the SDGs; Downscaling the experience of Potenza Province to the urban context; 10;The design: Description of #weResilient, the multiscale and multilevel approach in Local Resilience and sustainable development adopted by the Province of Potenza: the Vision and institutional commitment; the accountability; the multi-stakeholder engagement; community and people-centered iaction; the achieved results; the critical points. Description and analysis of the performed supportive actions to the municipalities with a subsidiary and wide-area approach.

A significant progress in establishing the basis for a risk-informed decision-making at local level; Further significant progresses in promoting inclusive Resilience across the provincial territory; Progress in Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and disaster risk-informed Sustainable Development at local level, including in support of the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the New Urban Agenda. Achievements and progresses made in local communities engagement; Achievements in performing actions for including communities and people in relevant institutional decision making processes, building capacities, developing capabilities, raising awareness, increasing political will and public support in local disaster risk reduction and achievement of the SDGs.

The paper is a field-testing of the implementation results of the #weResilient strategy, a risk-informed sustainable development policy-making action at territorial/local levels based on a structural combination of environmental sustainability, territorial safety and climate change contrasting policies; of the coherence of the multiscale and multilevel approach in integrating risk informed and sustainable development pathways; of the improved governance at urban level thanks to the downscaling of the strategy.

Transforming DRR and Resilience to disasters into real “structural” policy-making and actions to be implemented by coordinating territorial and urban development and land-use, with a wide area vision and holistic approach is crucial for the effectiveness of the territorial sustainable development. Moreover, participatory mechanisms can boost althe political will and consequently the related public support. The bottom-up approaches, especially when structured on well defined and clear strategies and supported by concrete actions, are a strategic tool for enhancing the institutional commitment and for enriching the implementation paths also with additional and innovative strategic solution.

In the #weResilient strategy implementation most of the efforts have been devoted to setting-up a complex system of progressive engagement having the main purpose of entrusting and engaging key-actors and community in the institutional policy-making regarding territorial and urban sustainable and resilient development. Engaging community in decision-making processes allows governments to tap into wider perspectives and potential solutions to improve decisions, services and actions. At the same time, it provides the basis for productive relationships, improved dialogue, increased sense of belonging and, ultimately, concrete better democracy.

Multiscale and multilevel holistic approaches in downscaling local well defined Resilience and Sustainable Development integrated strategies (#weResilient) provide for the best approach in terms of future growth. Setting a vision, outlining a strategy and implementing actions on those elements with multiscale and holistic approaches is key- success of every local long-term development; various worldwide leading experiences demonstrated by particularly shining governments are a tangible proof of it. So, the value of this work is to illustrate a concrete example of translation of words into actions so to provide guidance and inspiration to other worldwide governments in performing similar path.

It is now established by the global scientific community that climate change is a hard reality but the changes are complex in nature and to a great extent uncertain. Global circulation models (GCMs) have made significant contributions to the theoretical understanding of potential climate impacts, but their shortcomings in terms of assessing climate impacts soon became apparent. GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system. However, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The first generation approaches of climate change impact and vulnerability assessments are derived from GCMs downscaled to produce scenarios at regional and local scales, but since the downscaled models inherit the biases of their parent GCM, they produce a simplified version of local climate. Furthermore, their output is limited to changes in mean temperature, rainfall, and sea level. For this reason, hydrological modeling with GCM output is useful for assessing impacts. The hydrological response due to change in climate variables in the Amu Darya River Basin was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling results show that there is an increase in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, surface runoff, percolation, and water yields. The above methodology can be practiced in this region for conducting adaptation and mitigation assessments. This initial assessment will facilitate future simulation modeling applications using SWAT for the Amu Darya River Basin by including variables of local changes (e.g., population growth, deforestation) that directly affect the hydrology of the region.

The observed increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases since the industrial period, due to human activities, is very likely causing the warming of the climate system. Anthropogenic warming and rising sea levels will continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized, different types of adaptation measures are needed to cope with the inevitable change. At the same time mitigation measures aiming at decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing carbon sinks must be taken in order to reduce the potential extent of global warming. This chapter covers the main aspects of the current understanding of the physical basis of climate change, including the directly measured observations and estimated projections for the 21st century. Causes and effects of climate change are also addressed. Finally, the main uncertainties of climate projections and a few general considerations on the different ways to respond to the climate change issue are discussed.

Tolerance simulation’s reliability depends on the concordance between the input probability distribution and the real variation. The prescribed clamp force introduced changes in parts’ variation, which should be reflected in the input probability distribution for the tolerance simulation. The paper aims to present a tolerance analysis process of the composite wingbox assembly considering the preloading-modified distribution and especially focuses on the spring-in deviation of the thin-walled C-section composite beam (TC2B).

Based on finite element analysis model of TC2B, the preloading-modified probability distribution function (PDF) of the spring-in deviation is obtained. Thickness variations of the TC2B are obtained from the data of the downscaled composite wingbox. These variations are input to the computer-aided tolerance tools, and the final assembly variations are obtained. The assembly of the downscaled wingbox illustrates the effect of preloading on the probability distribution of the spring-in deviation.

The results have shown that the final assembly variations estimated with the modified probability distribution is more reliable than the variation of the initial normal distribution.

The tolerance simulation work presented in the paper will enhance the understanding of the composite parts assembling with spring-in deviations, improve the chance to choose assembling processes that allow specifications to be met and help with tolerance allocation in composites assembly.

To critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation analysis in building simulation software.

The validity of these FWYs is assessed through dynamic building simulation modelling to project future overheating risk in typical English homes in 2050s and 2080s.

The modelling results show that the variation in overheating projections is far too significant to consider the tested FWY data sets equally suitable for the task.

It is recommended that future research should consider harmonisation of the downscaling approaches so as to generate a unified data set of FWYs to be used for a given location and climate projection. If FWY are to be used in practice, live projects will need viable and reliable FWY on which to base their adaptation decisions. The difference between the data sets tested could potentially lead to different adaptation priorities specifically with regard to time series and adaptation phasing through the life of a building.

The paper investigates the different results derived from FWY application to building simulation. The outcome and implications are important considerations for research and practice involved in FWY data use in building simulation intended for climate change adaptation modelling.