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Since the last few decades, Artificial Neural Networks have been the center of attraction of a large number of researchers for solving diversified problem domains. Due to its distinguishing features such as generalization ability, robustness and strong ability to tackle nonlinear problems, it appears to be more popular in financial time series modeling and prediction. In this paper, a Pi-Sigma Neural Network is designed for foretelling the future currency exchange rates in different prediction horizon. The unrevealed parameters of the network are interpreted by a hybrid learning algorithm termed as Shuffled Differential Evolution (SDE). The main motivation of this study is to integrate the partitioning and random shuffling scheme of Shuffled Frog Leaping algorithm with evolutionary steps of a Differential Evolution technique to obtain an optimal solution with an accelerated convergence rate. The efficiency of the proposed predictor model is actualized by predicting the exchange rate price of a US dollar against Swiss France (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY) accumulated within the same period of time.

Intelligence level of a crowd network is defined as the expected reward of the network when completing the latest tasks (e.g. last N tasks). The purpose of this paper is to improve the intelligence level of a crowd network by optimizing the profession distribution of the crowd network.

Based on the concept of information entropy, this paper introduces the concept of business entropy and puts forward several factors affecting business entropy to analyze the relationship between the intelligence level and the profession distribution of the crowd network. This paper introduced Profession Distribution Deviation and Subject Interaction Pattern as the two factors which affect business entropy. By quantifying and combining the two factors, a Multi-Factor Business Entropy Quantitative (MFBEQ) model is proposed to calculate the business entropy of a crowd network. Finally, the differential evolution model and k-means clustering are applied to crowd intelligence network, and the species distribution of intelligent subjects is found, so as to achieve quantitative analysis of business entropy.

By establishing the MFBEQ model, this paper found that when the profession distribution of a crowd network is deviate less to the expected distribution, the intelligence level of a crowd network will be higher. Moreover, when subjects within the crowd network interact with each other more actively, the intelligence level of a crowd network becomes higher.

This paper aims to build the MFBEQ model according to factors that are related to business entropy and then uses the model to evaluate the intelligence level of a number of crowd networks.

This paper reports a new technique for achieving optimized design for power system stabilizers. In any large scale interconnected systems, disturbances of small magnitudes are very common and low frequency oscillations pose a major problem. Hence small signal stability analysis is very important for analyzing system stability and performance. Power System Stabilizers (PSS) are used in these large interconnected systems for damping out low-frequency oscillations by providing auxiliary control signals to the generator excitation input. In this paper, collective decision optimization (CDO) algorithm, a meta-heuristic approach based on the decision making approach of human beings, has been applied for the optimal design of PSS. PSS parameters are tuned for the objective function, involving eigenvalues and damping ratios of the lightly damped electromechanical modes over a wide range of operating conditions. Also, optimal locations for PSS placement have been derived. Comparative study of the results obtained using CDO with those of grey wolf optimizer (GWO), differential Evolution (DE), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) and crow search algorithm (CSA) methods, established the robustness of the algorithm in designing PSS under different operating conditions.

Artificial intelligence is gradually penetrating into human society. In the network era, the interaction between human and artificial intelligence, even between artificial intelligence, becomes more and more complex. Therefore, it is necessary to describe and intervene the evolution of crowd intelligence network dynamically. This paper aims to detect the abnormal agents at the early stage of intelligent evolution.

In this paper, differential evolution (DE) and K-means clustering are used to detect the crowd intelligence with abnormal evolutionary trend.

This study abstracts the evolution process of crowd intelligence into the solution process of DE and use K-means clustering to identify individuals who are not conducive to evolution in the early stage of intelligent evolution.

Experiments show that the method we proposed are able to find out individual intelligence without evolutionary trend as early as possible, even in the complex crowd intelligent interactive environment of practical application. As a result, it can avoid the waste of time and computing resources.

In this paper, DE and K-means clustering are combined to analyze the evolution of crowd intelligent interaction.

Variation, replication and selection processes are acknowledged as key constructs in studies on how industries evolve, but no theoretical and empirical contributions have applied these key constructs to analyzing industries in specific stages of their history. This paper aims to fill this gap, taking for reference the firm and its strategic action in particular.

After delineating and discussing the three processes of interest – variation, replication and selection – this paper analyzes three very different evolutionary contexts: “red” industries, that reached maturity maintaining a polypolistic structure, and that continue to evolve in this phase; the oligopolistic transformation undergone by certain industries; and the emergence of new market spaces around new products developed by firms.

Variations are mainly reactions to the competitive environment in the evolution of red industries or environment-modifying in the case of industries evolving toward an oligopoly, and in the creation of new market spaces. Horizontal replication through employee mobility prevails in red industries, while in the other two contexts firms driving the evolution raise barriers to replication, inhibiting both horizontal and vertical replication. While selection does not come about in a new market space as long as the barriers erected by the first comer remain in place, it occurs in the form of subset selection in the other two settings.

This paper takes an entirely novel approach and proposes a pluralist framing of how industries evolve, interpreting the different evolutionary situations on the strength of the key variables of variation, replication and selection.

This study aims to reduce the redundant weight of the anti-roll torsion bar brought by the traditional empirical design and improving its strength and stiffness.

Based on the finite element approach coupled with the improved beluga whale optimization (IBWO) algorithm, a collaborative optimization method is suggested to optimize the design of the anti-roll torsion bar structure and weight. The dimensions and material properties of the torsion bar were defined as random variables, and the torsion bar's mass and strength were investigated using finite elements. Then, chaotic mapping and differential evolution (DE) operators are introduced to improve the beluga whale optimization (BWO) algorithm and run case studies.

The findings demonstrate that the IBWO has superior solution set distribution uniformity, convergence speed, solution correctness and stability than the BWO. The IBWO algorithm is used to optimize the anti-roll torsion bar design. The error between the optimization and finite element simulation results was less than 1%. The weight of the optimized anti-roll torsion bar was lessened by 4%, the maximum stress was reduced by 35% and the stiffness was increased by 1.9%.

The study provides a methodological reference for the simulation optimization process of the lateral anti-roll torsion bar.

This paper aims to solve the parameter identification problem to estimate the parameters in electrochemical models of the lithium-ion battery.

The parameter estimation framework is applied to the Doyle-Fuller-Newman (DFN) model containing a total of 44 parameters. The DFN model is fit to experimental data obtained through the cycling of Li-ion cells. The parameter estimation is performed by minimizing the least-squares difference between the experimentally measured and numerically computed voltage curves. The minimization is performed using a state-of-the-art hybrid minimization algorithm.

The DFN model parameter estimation is performed within 14 h, which is a significant improvement over previous works. The mean absolute error for the converged parameters is less than 7 mV.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, application of a hybrid optimization framework is new in the field of electrical modelling of lithium-ion cells. This approach saves much time in parameterization of models with a high number of parameters while achieving a high-quality fit.

In recent years, with the increase in computing power, artificial intelligence can gradually be regarded as intelligent agents and interact with humans, this interactive network has become increasingly complex. Therefore, it is necessary to model and analyze this complex interactive network. This paper aims to model and demonstrate the evolution of crowd intelligence using visual complex networks.

This paper uses the complex network to model and observe the collaborative evolution behavior and self-organizing system of crowd intelligence.

The authors use the complex network to construct the cooperative behavior and self-organizing system in crowd intelligence. Determine the evolution mode of the node by constructing the interactive relationship between nodes and observe the global evolution state through the force layout.

The simulation results show that the state evolution map can effectively simulate the distribution, interaction and evolution of crowd intelligence through force layout and the intelligent agents’ link mode the authors proposed.

Based on the complex network, this paper constructs the interactive behavior and organization system in crowd intelligence and visualizes the evolution process.

Although employees' creativity is vital for firm innovation and overall performance, little is done to examine the potential association between creativity and employment. This paper investigates the contribution of employees' creativity, process and product innovations to firm-level employment growth.

The authors use data from World Bank Enterprise Survey and Innovation Follow-up Survey on 9503 firms covering the period 2012–2015 in 11 countries from sub-Saharan Africa and Heckman's two-stage estimation model.

This study's results indicate a positive role of creativity on firm-level employment growth. In addition, the authors find evidence for a complementary effect arising from the combination of creativity with managerial experience, staff level of education and their associated skills, in contrast, combining creativity with internal or external R&D results in a substitution effect. Interestingly, these synergy effects are pronounced for SMEs but absent for large firms.

Policy makers in developing economies of sub-Saharan Africa should stimulate company management to use free time offered to employees to be creative in the workplace as one of their key strategies to stimulate employment growth. This strategy is expected to be particularly fruitful among SMEs having some managerial experience and skilled stuff.

In contribution to innovative work practices and workforce creativity, the authors demonstrate that providing employees with free time could be an alternative way to enhance the focal firms' performance.

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.