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This paper aims to provide a reliable statistical model for time-series prices of short-stay accommodation and overnight stays in a eurozone country.

Exploiting the unit root feature, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model solves the problem of misspecification. Subsequently, variables are modelled for a long-run equilibrium with included deterministic variables.

The empirical results confirmed that overnight stays for foreign tourists were positively associated with the prices of short-stay accommodation.

The major limitation lies in the data vector and its time horizon; its extension could provide a more specific view.

Findings can assist practitioners and hotel executives by providing the information and rationale for adopting seasonal volatility pricing. Structural breaks in price time-series have practical implications for setting seasonal-pricing schemes. Tourists could benefit either from greater price stability or from differentiated seasonal prices, which are important in the promotion of the price attractiveness of the tourist destination.

The originality of the paper lies in the applied unit root econometrics for tourism price time-series modelling and the prediction of short-stay accommodation prices.

In the present research, location and routing problems, as well as the supply chain, which includes manufacturers, distributor candidate sites and retailers, are explored. The goal of addressing the issue is to reduce delivery times and system costs for retailers so that routing and distributor location may be determined.

By adding certain unique criteria and limits, the issue becomes more realistic. Customers expect simultaneous deliveries and pickups, and retail service start times have soft and hard time windows. Transportation expenses, noncompliance with the soft time window, distributor construction, vehicle purchase or leasing, and manufacturing costs are all part of the system costs. The problem's conceptual model is developed and modeled first, and then General Algebraic Modeling System software (GAMS) and Multiple Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII) algorithms are used to solve it in small dimensions.

According to the mathematical model's solution, the average error of the two suggested methods, in contrast to the exact answer, is less than 0.7%. In addition, the performance of algorithms in terms of deviation from the GAMS exact solution is pretty satisfactory, with a divergence of 0.4% for the biggest problem (N = 100). As a result, NSGAII is shown to be superior to MOSPSO.

Since this paper deals with two bi-objective models, the priorities of decision-makers in selecting the best solution were not taken into account, and each of the objective functions was given an equal weight based on the weighting procedures. The model has not been compared or studied in both robust and deterministic modes. This is because, with the exception of the variable that indicates traffic mode uncertainty, all variables are deterministic, and the uncertainty character of demand in each level of the supply chain is ignored.

The suggested model's conclusions are useful for any group of decision-makers concerned with optimizing production patterns at any level. The employment of a diverse fleet of delivery vehicles, as well as the use of stochastic optimization techniques to define the time windows, demonstrates how successful distribution networks are in lowering operational costs.

According to a multi-objective model in a three-echelon supply chain, this research fills in the gaps in the link between routing and location choices in a realistic manner, taking into account the actual restrictions of a distribution network. The model may reduce the uncertainty in vehicle performance while choosing a refueling strategy or dealing with diverse traffic scenarios, bringing it closer to certainty. In addition, two modified MOPSO and NSGA-II algorithms are presented for solving the model, with the results compared to the exact GAMS approach for medium- and small-sized problems.

This study aims to investigate a locating-routing-allocating problems and the supply chain, including factories distributor candidate locations and retailers. The purpose of this paper is to minimize system costs and delivery time to retailers so that routing is done and the location of the distributors is located.

The problem gets closer to reality by adding some special conditions and constraints. Retail service start times have hard and soft time windows, and each customer has a demand for simultaneous delivery and pickups. System costs include the cost of transportation, non-compliance with the soft time window, construction of a distributor, purchase or rental of a vehicle and production costs. The conceptual model of the problem is first defined and modeled and then solved in small dimensions by general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) software and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII) and multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithms.

According to the solution of the mathematical model, the average error of the two proposed algorithms in comparison with the exact solution is less than 0.7%. Also, the algorithms’ performance in terms of deviation from the GAMS exact solution, is quite acceptable and for the largest problem (N = 100) is 0.4%. Accordingly, it is concluded that NSGAII is superior to MOSPSO.

In this study, since the model is bi-objective, the priorities of decision makers in choosing the optimal solution have not been considered and each of the objective functions has been given equal importance according to the weighting methods. Also, the model has not been compared and analyzed in deterministic and robust modes. This is because all variables, except the one that represents the uncertainty of traffic modes, are deterministic and the random nature of the demand in each graph is not considered.

The results of the proposed model are valuable for any group of decision makers who care optimizing the production pattern at any level. The use of a heterogeneous fleet of delivery vehicles and application of stochastic optimization methods in defining the time windows, show how effective the distribution networks are in reducing operating costs.

This study fills the gaps in the relationship between location and routing decisions in a practical way, considering the real constraints of a distribution network, based on a multi-objective model in a three-echelon supply chain. The model is able to optimize the uncertainty in the performance of vehicles to select the refueling strategy or different traffic situations and bring it closer to the state of certainty. Moreover, two modified algorithms of NSGA-II and multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) are provided to solve the model while the results are compared with the exact general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) method for the small- and medium-sized problems.

The collocation-based stochastic response surface method (CSRSM) is widely used in geotechnical reliability analyses due to its efficiency and accuracy. Determining the optimal truncated order of the associated polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is important, as it may strongly affect the practical applicability of CSRSM.

This study investigates the performance of different optimal order selection strategies used in the CSRSM and proposes a new cross-order validation method. First, several methods commonly used for optimal order selection are briefly reviewed, and their merits and limitations for reliability analyses are discussed. Then, an improved optimal order selection method that achieves a better trade-off between efficiency and accuracy is proposed.

In total, ten simple mathematical examples from the literature are employed to perform a preliminary test on the proposed method, and a comparative study is conducted to demonstrate its advantages with respect to some other existing methods.

A total of three typical geotechnical problems are employed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method in geotechnical practice.

An improved optimal order selection method that achieves a better trade-off between efficiency and accuracy is proposed. The threshold value of the deterministic coefficient used for the proposed method is discussed.

The paper aims to provide a structured framework for comparing different productivity estimation methodologies and evaluate their sensitivity to operational coefficients variation for excavation operations.

Two process‐oriented methodologies were analysed in a deterministic fashion in terms of their input requirements and their respective outputs. A phase‐oriented framework was presented to enable their comparison. The research methodology allows the estimation of excavation productivity in relation to the selected operational coefficients.

The system productivity is significantly influenced by operational conditions, such as the digging depth and the swing angle from the excavation front to the dumping position. Each methodology presents a differing sensitivity to every operational factor. Since the excavator is considered as the system's leading resource, the variation on productivity has direct implications for the truck fleet size and the unit cost of operations.

The proposed approach is useful in analyzing process‐oriented productivity estimation methodologies under a given set of operational coefficients when no historical data is available. Thus, it provides an alternative to intuitive estimates based solely on personal judgment. The concept of “baseline reference” conditions is introduced, so as to enable the transformation of any operational scenario into equivalent mathematical models that allow comparisons between different estimation methodologies and computational approaches.

Air carriers and aircraft manufacturers are investing in technologies and strategies to reduce fuel consumption and associated emissions. This chapter reviews related issues to assess airline fuel efficiency and offers various empirical evidences from our recent work that focuses on the U.S. domestic passenger air transportation system. We begin with a general presentation of four methods (ratio-based, deterministic frontier, stochastic frontier, and data envelopment analysis) and three perspectives for assessing airline fuel efficiencies, the latter covering consideration of only mainline carrier operations, mainline–subsidiary relations, and airline routing circuity. Airline fuel efficiency results in the short run, in particular the correlations of the results from using different methods and considering different perspectives, are discussed. For the long-term efficiency, we present the development of a stochastic frontier model to investigate individual airline fuel efficiency and system overall evolution between 1990 and 2012. Insight about the association of fuel efficiency with market entry, exit, and airline mergers is also obtained.

The paper attempts to establish the connection between structural reliability and structural optimization for the particular case of plastic structures. Along this line, the paper outlines a reliability‐based optimization approach to design plastic structures with uncertain interdependent strengths and acted on by random interdependent loads. The importance of such interdependencies, and of some of the other statistical parameters used as input data in probabilistic computations, is demonstrated by several examples of sensitivity studies on both the probability of collapse failure as well as the reliability‐based optimum solution.

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of uncertainty quantification methods supported by evidence-based comparison studies. Uncertainties are widely encountered in engineering practice, arising from such diverse sources as heterogeneity of materials, variability in measurement, lack of data and ambiguity in knowledge. Academia and industries have long been researching for uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to quantitatively account for the effects of various input uncertainties on the system response. Despite the rich literature of relevant research, UQ is not an easy subject for novice researchers/practitioners, where many different methods and techniques coexist with inconsistent input/output requirements and analysis schemes.

This confusing status significantly hampers the research progress and practical application of UQ methods in engineering. In the context of engineering analysis, the research efforts of UQ are most focused in two largely separate research fields: structural reliability analysis (SRA) and stochastic finite element method (SFEM). This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of SRA and SFEM, covering both technology and application aspects. Moreover, unlike standard survey papers that focus primarily on description and explanation, a thorough and rigorous comparative study is performed to test all UQ methods reviewed in the paper on a common set of reprehensive examples.

Over 20 uncertainty quantification methods in the fields of structural reliability analysis and stochastic finite element methods are reviewed and rigorously tested on carefully designed numerical examples. They include FORM/SORM, importance sampling, subset simulation, response surface method, surrogate methods, polynomial chaos expansion, perturbation method, stochastic collocation method, etc. The review and comparison tests comment and conclude not only on accuracy and efficiency of each method but also their applicability in different types of uncertainty propagation problems.

The research fields of structural reliability analysis and stochastic finite element methods have largely been developed separately, although both tackle uncertainty quantification in engineering problems. For the first time, all major uncertainty quantification methods in both fields are reviewed and rigorously tested on a common set of examples. Critical opinions and concluding remarks are drawn from the rigorous comparative study, providing objective evidence-based information for further research and practical applications.

Structural models' inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naïve devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction mechanisms, built by automatic model selection, are compared to various robust devices. Forecast-error taxonomies for aggregated and time-disaggregated information reveal that the impacts of structural breaks are identical between these, helping to interpret the empirical findings. Forecast failures in structural models are driven by their deterministic terms, confirming location shifts as a pernicious cause thereof, and explaining the success of robust devices.