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Article
Publication date: 7 March 2016

Yumi Saita, Chihiro Shimizu and Tsutomu Watanabe

Aging in Japan is advancing faster than in other major developed nations, and this is expected to have substantial effects on the country’s economic systems, including its social…

1641

Abstract

Purpose

Aging in Japan is advancing faster than in other major developed nations, and this is expected to have substantial effects on the country’s economic systems, including its social security system. What kind of effect will the falling birth rate, aging society and declining population have on the real estate market? Will the often mentioned real estate price asset meltdown really occur? The purpose of this paper is to address these questions by investigating how much demographic factors affected real estate prices in Japan and the USA.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use regional panel data for Japan and the USA real estate prices and estimate the effects of demographic factors, such as dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of population aged 65+ to population aged 20-64. For Japan, as no region-by-region quality-adjusted housing price indexes covering the entire country exist, data are constructed by conducting quality adjustment using hedonic regression.

Findings

Both in Japan and the USA, real estate prices in a region are inversely correlated with the old age dependency ratio in that region, and positively correlated with the total number of population in that region. The demographic factor had a greater impact on real estate prices in Japan than in the USA. For Japan, it was also found that demographic impact on land prices will be −2.4 per cent per year in 2012-2040, while it was −3.7 per cent per year in 1976-2010, suggesting that aging will continue to have downward pressure on land prices over the next 30 years, although the demographic impact will be slightly smaller than it was in 1976-2010, as the old age dependency ratio will not increase as much as it did before.

Originality/value

Japan’s regional panel data are newly constructed based on a hedonic approach. Analyzing the effect of dependency ratio for Japan and the USA panel data is a new challenge. Forecasting future impact of demographic factor on Japan’s land prices based on the population forecast is a new challenge.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 July 2020

Kashif Munir and Faqeer Syed Umaid Shahid

This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of South Asian countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The theoretical foundation of the study relies on demographic transition theory and incorporates life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio into the production function by means of human capital component. The study uses annual panel data of four South Asian courtiers, i.e. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes panel ARDL model to analyze the long run and short run impact of demographic factors on economic growth.

Findings

Results show that real stock of capital, fertility rate and life expectancy are positively related with economic growth, while an increase in young dependency ratio reduces economic growth in South Asian countries in the long run. Short-run dynamics show that real stock of capital and life expectancy have insignificant impact on economic growth, while young dependency ratio has negative and significant as well as life expectancy has positive and significant impact on economic growth in South Asian countries. Unidirectional causality exists from young dependency ratio and fertility rate to GDP per capita in the short run.

Practical implications

Government has to design policies for better health and education facilities to yield high economic growth as well as better infrastructure and macroeconomic stability to facilitate capital accumulation in the region to foster economic growth.

Originality/value

This study considerably adds into the existing literature by providing better understanding of various demographic aspects and their economic inference by highlighting the demographic changes that South Asia has endured. This study is also beneficial for policymakers and growth analysts in generating effective and sustainable policies regarding population dynamics and economic development of the region.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 48 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 December 2022

Muhammad Junaid Khawaja

The objective of the study is to explore the determinants of savings and their relative importance in Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of the study is to explore the determinants of savings and their relative importance in Saudi Arabia.

Design/methodology/approach

The stationarity of the data has been tested using augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) tests. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique has been applied to establish the long run and short run relationships. Stability of savings function has been tested by applying CUSUM and CUSUMSQ techniques.

Findings

Results of ARDL identify the important factors affecting savings behaviour in Saudi Arabia. According to the results, the growth rate of GDP, the interest rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and budget surplus positively affect savings with the last two having the most influence on domestic savings. The coefficient of the dependency ratio is negative in conformity with the theory. Similarly, the coefficient of the inflation rate is also negative.

Research limitations/implications

There is limited availability of data since only 41 years’ annual data are available.

Practical implications

In the light of the results, it is recommended that in order to increase savings, the government should adopt policies to attract FDI, increase the GDP growth rate and decrease the dependency ratio and inflation.

Social implications

Government needs to discourage larger family sizes to encourage savings in the light of the result of negative impact of the dependency ratio on savings. In order to decrease the dependency ratio, more family members especially women should be encouraged to participate in the labour market.

Originality/value

There is a scarcity of research for Saudi Arabia on the critical issue of determinants of domestic savings. This is a pioneering study exploring important determinants of savings in Saudi data.

Peer review

The peer review history for this article is available at https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2021-0493.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 50 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2024

Jinwei Lv, Bing Liu and Li Chai

Urbanization is driving the growth of China’s carbon footprint. It’s important to investigate what factors, how and to what extent, affect carbon footprints embedded in various…

Abstract

Purpose

Urbanization is driving the growth of China’s carbon footprint. It’s important to investigate what factors, how and to what extent, affect carbon footprints embedded in various categories of rural and urban households’ consumption.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ an environmental extended input-output model to assess and compare the rural-urban household carbon footprints and perform a multivariant regression analysis to identify the varying relationships of the determinants on rural and urban household carbon footprints based on the panel data of Chinese households from 2012 to 2018.

Findings

The results show evidence of urbanity density effect on direct carbon footprints and countervailing effect on indirect carbon footprints. The old dependency ratio has no significant effect on rural family emissions but has a significantly negative effect on urban direct and indirect carbon footprints. A higher child dependency ratio is associated with less rural household carbon emissions while the opposite is true for urban households. Taking advantage of recycled fuel saves direct carbon emissions and this green lifestyle benefits urban households more by saving more carbon emissions. There is a positive relationship between consumption structure ratio and direct carbon footprints while a negative relationship with indirect carbon footprints and this impact is less significant for urban households. The higher the price level of water, electricity and fuel, the lower the rural household’s direct carbon footprints. Private car ownership consistently augments household carbon footprints across rural and urban areas.

Originality/value

This paper provides comprehensive findings to understand the relationships between an array of determinants and China’s rural-urban carbon emissions, empowering China’s contribution to the global effort on climate mitigation.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 November 2014

Muhammad Azam and Chandra Emirullah

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of corruption as an important element of weak governance, with control variables such as inflation rate, openness to trade and…

1695

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of corruption as an important element of weak governance, with control variables such as inflation rate, openness to trade and dependency ratio on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita income of nine selected countries in Asia and the Pacific.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is based on an annual panel data covering the period from 1985 to 2012, and a simple multiple regression for empirical investigation is used. Both fixed effects and random effects models were used as analytical techniques.

Findings

The study reveals that both corruption and inflation rate are negatively related to GDP per capita and are statistically significant. As to the impacts of the control variables i.e., dependency ratio is found to be negative and openness to trade to be statistically significant which shows a positive impact on GDP per capita.

Practical implications

The results resoundingly confirmed the importance of good governance, therefore, reducing endemic corruption and controlling inflation needs to be among the foremost factors for consideration for policymakers in adopting and implementing macroeconomic and public policies. In order to be most effective in tackling corruption, it is important to get to the root of the problem. In light of the study findings, it is suggested that corruption need to be put under control and economies be made more open to attain more benefits and accelerate economic growth and development.

Originality/value

Explicitly, this study provides some valuable evidence on the linkage between endemic corruption and economic growth in some Asia and the Pacific countries in particular and on developing world in general. Presumably, this is the first inclusive investigation on the subject under the study in the context of Asia and the Pacific countries and will emphatically contribute to the literature as well.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 41 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 December 2019

Malin Song and Qianjiao Xie

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of the green talent dividend on China’s economic growth and regional differences using a theoretical derivation of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of the green talent dividend on China’s economic growth and regional differences using a theoretical derivation of the Cobb–Douglas production function.

Design/methodology/approach

This study develops a measurement model with human capital based on Chinese inter-provincial panel data for 2001–2017, and analyzes the influences on economic growth of employees’ education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs. The study explores the impact of the green talent dividend on regional economic growth for different regions.

Findings

Employees’ education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs promote China’s economic growth. The dependency ratio hinders economic growth. The green labor participation rate impacts economic growth more than green jobs do. Furthermore, the scale of green talent in China and its dividend effect are regionally unbalanced. Therefore, to fully release the dividend of green talent, the green labor participation rate should be improved to promote the rational flow of talent among regions.

Practical implications

These findings shed light on the talent dividend, provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant talent policies, and show that the demographic dividend can be transformed into the green talent dividend, which has practical significance for the sustainable development of China’s economy given its aging population.

Originality/value

This study provides a macro perspective on the green talent dividend’s impact on economic growth. The Cobb–Douglas production function in this study differs from the traditional micro perspective on green labor.

Details

International Journal of Manpower, vol. 41 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-7720

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 January 2019

Hossein Vahidi Monfared and Alireza Moini

The last reformation in Iran’s population policy was announced inside “General Population Policy” (GPP) in 2013. One of the main objectives of the GPP is controlling population…

270

Abstract

Purpose

The last reformation in Iran’s population policy was announced inside “General Population Policy” (GPP) in 2013. One of the main objectives of the GPP is controlling population aging. The aim was to designing and evaluating different scenarios for achieving this objective.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, a system dynamics model was built from cohort age groups. The model simulated Iran’s population structure from 2000 to 2050. The system dynamics model was validated in 2000 till 2011 period (R2 = 94%). Data were extracted from the United Nations population division repository and represent a reducing trend in the fertility rate of Iran. This situation was named the “base” scenario. The simulation results for this scenario showed that Iran will face aging such that between 2000 and 2050 the median age will increase from 25 to 43 years. Based on these results, the base scenario could not achieve the GPP objective. So three alternative scenarios were designated: stabilization, increasing and hyper increasing.

Findings

The median age and the aging index are descending only in the hyper increasing scenario which means controlling aging. Therefore, the hyper increasing scenario is the only way to realize the GPP’s objective. To realize the hyper increasing scenario, it is essential to consider the total dependency ratio which shows the level of pressure on the workforce. Reducing this pressure increases the propensity to have more children (fertility index) and this is essential for maintaining high fertility rate.

Originality/value

The value of the research rests on a precise simulation model to forecast the population structure and aging. The research will serve as a guide for Iranian policymaker and support strong recommendations to bring the GPP along with supporting policies such as childbearing and child care assistance.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 48 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 July 2014

John F. Mahon and Carla C.J.M. Millar

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the challenges, worldwide of managing an aging workforce. The paper offers suggestions for public policy and for individual…

2997

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the challenges, worldwide of managing an aging workforce. The paper offers suggestions for public policy and for individual organizational approaches to developing, managing and motivating an aging workforce.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper reviews in depth international literature, public policies and corporate policies that deal with an aging workforce.

Findings

In virtually every nation in the world, society is aging and the costs to society – on multiple dimensions demand organizational action and changes in public policy. For the first time in recorded history the number of people aged 65+ will exceed those 15 and under starting in 2015. It is also predicted that those 80+ will be greater than those under 15 in Europe by 2060.

Originality/value

This paper explores the impact of a worldwide aging society on the management of organizations and the demands that this aging will place on public policy. It addresses the profound impacts of changing dependency ratios on nations and on their future competitiveness.

Details

Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. 27 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0953-4814

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2017

Hong Gao, Tianxiang Yao and Xiaoru Kang

The purpose of this paper is to predict the population of Anhui province. The authors analyze the trend of the main demographic indicators.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to predict the population of Anhui province. The authors analyze the trend of the main demographic indicators.

Design/methodology/approach

On the basis of the main methods of statistics, this paper studies the tendency of the population of Anhui province. It mainly analyzes the sex structure and the age structure of the current population. Based on the GM(1,1) model, this paper forecasts the total population, the population sex structure, and the population age structure of Anhui province in the next ten years.

Findings

The results show that the total population was controlled well, but there have been many problems of the population structure, such as the aging population, high sex ratio, heavy social dependency burden, and the declining labor force.

Social implications

This paper forecasts the main indexes of the population of Anhui province and provides policy recommendations for the government and the relevant departments.

Originality/value

This paper utilizes data analysis method and the grey forecasting model to study the tendency of the population problems in Anhui province.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2017

Mohamed Sherif and Sadia Hussnain

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the driving forces (economics and socio-demographic) that influence family Takaful demand in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA…

1344

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the driving forces (economics and socio-demographic) that influence family Takaful demand in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, using a sample of 15 countries from the MENA.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use multivariate analysis, bootstrapping and generalised method of moments techniques. They first examine a full model that combines all variables; second, a model that controls for product market factors; and finally, a model that controls for socio-demographic factors. They further separate all models into linear and log-linear demand functions.

Findings

The authors demonstrate that the relationship between the demand for family Takaful in MENA and Islamic banking deposits, education, dependency rate, female life expectancy and Muslim population is significantly positive. On the other hand, the significant factors that are inversely related to the demand for family Takaful in MENA are inflation, financial development and male life expectancy.

Research limitation/implications

The crucial limitation of this study is the amount of data available in regards to the dependent variable, family Takaful contributions. Consequently, to improve the understanding in explaining the family Takaful demand in MENA, further research can take advantage of expanding the variables that were omitted in this research as a consequence of the unavailability of data. Some of the possible influential variables can include government social security expenditure, legal system and government policies, price of Takaful and level of competition within the Takaful and insurance industry.

Originality/value

It is obvious that there are very few studies that focus on the MENA market, and indeed, none of them gives attention to the factors that influence demand for family Takaful. While this study is expected to provide more understanding and awareness on the concept of Takaful and the factors that influence its demand, the authors hope that it would encourage more studies on various issues on the Takaful industry so as to help researchers to understand more aspects of this new emerging business.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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