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The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that both P2P loan characteristics and macroeconomic variables have influence on loan performance. The authors define a set of loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic variables that are significant in determining the probability of default and should be taken into consideration when assessing credit risk.

The research question in this study is to find the significant explanatory variables that are essential in determining the probability of default for LendingClub loans. The empirical study is based on a total number of 1,863,491 loan records issued through LendingClub from 2007 to 2020Q3 and a logistic regression model is developed to predict loan defaults.

The results, in line with prior research, show that a number of borrower and contractual loan characteristics predict loan defaults. The innovation of this study is the introduction of specific macroeconomic indicators. The study indicates that macroeconomic variables assessed alongside loan data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default model. The general finding demonstrates that higher percentage change in House Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and S&P500 Index is associated with a lower probability of delinquency. The empirical results also exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate on P2P loan default rates.

The results have important implications for investors for whom it is of great importance to know the determinants of borrowers' creditworthiness and loan performance when estimating the investment in a certain P2P loan. In addition, the forecasting performance of the model could be applied by authorities in order to deal with the credit risk in P2P lending and to prevent the effects of increasing defaults on the economy.

This paper fulfills an identified need to shed light on the association between specific macroeconomic indicators and the default risk from P2P lending within an economy, while the majority of the existing literature investigate loan and borrower information to evaluate credit risk of P2P loans and predict the likelihood of default.

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size.

This study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial performance with the moderation effect of the firm size.

This study establishes the findings that default risk significantly impacts the financial performance. The relationship between distance-to-default (DD) and financial performance is positive, which means the relationship of the independent and dependent variable is inverse. Moreover, this study finds that the firm size is a significant positive moderator between DD and financial performance.

This study provides new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between default risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors and businesses related to nonfinancial firms in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) with significant default risk's impact on performance. This study finds, on average, the default probability in KSE ALL indexed companies is 6.12%.

The evidence of the default risk and financial performance on samples of nonfinancial firms has been minimal; mainly, it has been limited to the banking sector. Moreover, the existing studies have only catered the direct effect of only. This study fills that gap and evaluates this relationship in nonfinancial firms. This study also helps in the evaluation of Merton model's performance in the nonfinancial firms.

This study aims to develop a novel approach for predicting default risk in bancassurance, which plays a crucial role in the relationship between interest rates in banks and premium rates in insurance companies. The proposed method aims to improve default risk predictions and assist with client segmentation in the banking system.

This research introduces the group method of data handling (GMDH) technique and a diversified classifier ensemble based on GMDH (dce-GMDH) for predicting default risk. The data set comprises information from 30,000 credit card clients of a large bank in Taiwan, with the output variable being a dummy variable distinguishing between default risk (0) and non-default risk (1), whereas the input variables comprise 23 distinct features characterizing each customer.

The results of this study show promising outcomes, highlighting the usefulness of the proposed technique for bancassurance and client segmentation. Remarkably, the dce-GMDH model consistently outperforms the conventional GMDH model, demonstrating its superiority in predicting default risk based on various error criteria.

This study presents a unique approach to predicting default risk in bancassurance by using the GMDH and dce-GMDH neural network models. The proposed method offers a valuable contribution to the field by showcasing improved accuracy and enhanced applicability within the banking sector, offering valuable insights and potential avenues for further exploration.

The authors analyse the determinants of loan defaults in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loans in India from the survival duration perspective to draw inferences that have implications for lenders and policymakers.

The authors use the Kaplan–Meier survivor function and the Cox Proportional Hazard model to analyse 4.29 lakhs MSME loan account data originated by a large bank having a national presence from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2020.

The estimated Kaplan–Meier survival function by various categories of loan and socio-demographic characteristics reflects heterogeneity and identifies the trigger points for actions. The authors identify the key identified default drivers. The authors find that the subsidy amount is more effective at the lower level and its effectiveness diminishes significantly beyond an optimum level. The simulated values show that the effects of rising interest rates on survival rates vary across industries and types of loans.

The identified points of inflection in the default dynamics would help banks to initiate actions to prevent loan defaults. The default drivers identified would foster more nuanced lending decisions. The study estimation of the survival rate based on the simulated values of interest rate and subsidy provides insight for policymakers.

This study is the first to investigate default drivers in MSME loans in India using micro-data. The study findings will act as signposts for the planners to guide the direction of the interest rate to be charged by banks in MSME loans, interest subvention and tailoring subsidy levels to foster sustainable growth.

By introducing Stacking algorithm to solve the underfitting problem caused by insufficient data in traditional machine learning, this paper provides a new solution to the cold start problem of entrepreneurial borrowing risk control.

The authors introduce semi-supervised learning and integrated learning into the field of migration learning, and innovatively propose the Stacking model migration learning, which can independently train models on entrepreneurial borrowing credit data, and then use the migration strategy itself as the learning object, and use the Stacking algorithm to combine the prediction results of the source domain model and the target domain model.

The effectiveness of the two migration learning models is evaluated with real data from an entrepreneurial borrowing. The algorithmic performance of the Stacking-based model migration learning is further improved compared to the benchmark model without migration learning techniques, with the model area under curve value rising to 0.8. Comparing the two migration learning models reveals that the model-based migration learning approach performs better. The reason for this is that the sample-based migration learning approach only eliminates the noisy samples that are relatively less similar to the entrepreneurial borrowing data. However, the calculation of similarity and the weighing of similarity are subjective, and there is no unified judgment standard and operation method, so there is no guarantee that the retained traditional credit samples have the same sample distribution and feature structure as the entrepreneurial borrowing data.

From a practical standpoint, on the one hand, it provides a new solution to the cold start problem of entrepreneurial borrowing risk control. The small number of labeled high-quality samples cannot support the learning and deployment of big data risk control models, which is the cold start problem of the entrepreneurial borrowing risk control system. By extending the training sample set with auxiliary domain data through suitable migration learning methods, the prediction performance of the model can be improved to a certain extent and more generalized laws can be learned.

This paper introduces the thought method of migration learning to the entrepreneurial borrowing scenario, provides a new solution to the cold start problem of the entrepreneurial borrowing risk control system and verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the migration learning method applied in the risk control field through empirical data.

The purpose of this paper is to test the invulnerability of the guarantee network at the equilibrium point.

This paper introduces a tractable guarantee network model that captures the invulnerability of the network in terms of cascade-based attack. Furthermore, the equilibrium points are introduced for banks to determine loan origination.

The proposed approach not only develops equilibrium analysis as an extended perspective in the guarantee network, but also applies cascading failure method to construct the guarantee network. The equilibrium points are examined by simulating experiment. The invulnerability of the guarantee network is quantified by the survival of firms in the simulating progress.

There is less study in equilibrium analysis of the guarantee network. Additionally, cascading failure model is expressed in the presented approach. Moreover, agent-based model can be extended in generating the guarantee network in the future study.

The approach of this paper presents a framework to analyze the equilibrium of the guarantee network. For this, the systemic risk of the whole guarantee network and each node's contribution are measured to predict the probability of default on cascading failure. Focusing on cascade failure process based on equilibrium point, the invulnerability of the guarantee network can be quantified.

From the buying club’s perspective, the transfer of a player can be interpreted as an investment from which the club expects uncertain future benefits. This paper aims to develop a decision-oriented approach for the valuation of football players that could theoretically help clubs determine the subjective value of investing in a player to assess its potential economic advantage.

We build on a semi-investment-theoretical risk-value model and elaborate an approach that can be applied in imperfect markets under uncertainty. Furthermore, we illustrate the valuation process with a numerical example based on fictitious data. Due to this explicitly intended decision support, our approach differs fundamentally from a large part of the literature, which is empirically based and attempts to explain observable figures through various influencing factors.

We propose a semi-investment-theoretical valuation approach that is based on a two-step model, namely, a first valuation at the club level and a final calculation to determine the decision value for an individual player. In contrast to the previous literature, we do not rely on an econometric framework that attempts to explain observable past variables but rather present a general, forward-looking decision model that can support managers in their investment decisions.

This approach is the first to show managers how to make an economically rational investment decision by determining the maximum payable price. Nevertheless, there is no normative requirement for the decision-maker. The club will obviously have to supplement the calculus with nonfinancial objectives. Overall, our paper can constitute a first step toward decision-oriented player valuation and for theoretical comparison with practical investment decisions in football clubs, which obviously take into account other specific sports team decisions.

The purpose of this study was to explore the motives (especially the agency motives) for corporate diversification from the perspective of corporate executives who make such strategic decisions and manage the diversified firms daily.

A qualitative research approach was adopted, and 12 chief executive officers (CEOs) of diversified firms in Nigeria were interviewed for their perspectives on the motives for corporate diversification.

Stewardship motives – diversification to use excess capacities in assets and resources to exploit opportunities in the market and defend against adverse environmental developments – were the most cited reasons for diversification. The relevant agency problem related to corporate diversification motive in Nigeria is the principal–principal (majority shareholder-minority shareholder) one. CEOs with substantial holdings in their firms indicated that they use diversification to reduce their investment risk and retain control of their portfolio.

The findings suggest that in corporate environments such as Nigeria that feature blockholding prominently, the corporate strategy-related agency problem that policymakers should pay greater attention to is the principal–principal conflict rather than the traditional agent–principal problem that has influenced corporate governance over the years. There is also a need to revise the dominant view that diversification is a value-destroying strategy motivated by the self-seeking behavior of managers who have little or no shares in the companies they manage.

The few studies on motives for corporate diversification that incorporated the perspectives of corporate executives did not address the agency motives of diversification. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that has done so.

Employees play a vital role in the success of a corporation. While boards of directors are created to protect shareholders’ interests, it is unclear if these directors also ensure employee welfare. In this vein, our paper examines the relationship between board leadership structure and employee well-being.

The authors employ several analysis techniques, including univariate analysis, ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions, two-stage least squares (2SLS) regressions, propensity score matching methodology, the Heckman Selection model and difference-in-differences analysis. The sample comprises USA public firms for the period 1998–2018.

Our findings indicate that having an independent chairperson can significantly benefit the welfare of employees, especially for firms with overly powerful chief executive officers (CEOs) and during times of financial distress.

Independent leadership structure is one of the crucial board characteristics that have not been examined to explain employee welfare at firms. We find that an independent chairperson can mitigate the negative effect of overly powerful CEOs on employee benefits. Importantly, independent chairpersons are beneficial for employees in difficult times and when CEOs are busy with daily activities.

The purpose of the study is to examine the relation between board structure and firm performance variability in an international setting. The authors further explore the effect of national culture in shaping such relations.

The authors’ international sample contains 4,911 firms across 49 countries over the 2002–2017 period. The authors use national culture values on individualism and power distance developed by Hofstede (1980, 2001, 2011). The authors focus on within-firm, over-time variability of firm performance and estimate multivariate linear regressions with fixed effects. The authors address the endogeneity concern using the instrumental variable approach, and the authors’ results are robust to alternative measures of variables and different subsamples.

The authors find that firms with larger board size, greater board independence and less powerful CEOs have less variable performance. Individualism has a magnifying effect while power distance has a mitigating effect in shaping such relations.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first to answer the call of Adams, Hermalin and Weisbach (2010) for research on corporate boards in an international setting. It is also one of the few studies which examine the variability of firm performance, while the majority of existing literature focuses on the level of firm performance. Most importantly, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to explore the role of national culture in shaping boardroom interactions that affect the decision-making process of corporate boards, which, in turn, affects firm performance variability.