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Personal bankruptcy is on the rise in Malaysia. The Insolvency Department of Malaysia reported that personal bankruptcy has increased since 2007, and the total accumulated personal bankruptcy cases stood at 131,282 in 2014. This is indeed an alarming issue because the increasing number of personal bankruptcy cases will have a negative impact on the Malaysian economy, as well as on the society. From the aspect of individual’s personal economy, bankruptcy minimizes their chances of securing a job. Apart from that, their account will be frozen, lost control on their assets and properties and not allowed to start any business nor be a part of any company’s management. Bankrupts also will be denied from any loan application, restricted from travelling overseas and cannot act as a guarantor. This paper aims to investigate this problem by developing the personal bankruptcy prediction model using the decision tree technique.

In this paper, bankrupt is defined as terminated members who failed to settle their loans. The sample comprised of 24,546 cases with 17 per cent settled cases and 83 per cent terminated cases. The data included a dependent variable, i.e. bankruptcy status (Y = 1(bankrupt), Y = 0 (non-bankrupt)) and 12 predictors. SAS Enterprise Miner 14.1 software was used to develop the decision tree model.

Upon completion, this study succeeds to come out with the profiles of bankrupts, reliable personal bankruptcy scoring model and significant variables of personal bankruptcy.

This decision tree model is possible for patent and income generation. Financial institutions are able to use this model for potential borrowers to predict their tendency toward personal bankruptcy.

Create awareness to society on significant variables of personal bankruptcy so that they can avoid being a bankrupt.

This decision tree model is able to facilitate and assist financial institutions in evaluating and assessing their potential borrower. It helps to identify potential defaulting borrowers. It also can assist financial institutions in implementing the right strategies to avoid defaulting borrowers.

The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest and easiest way to get a picture of the otherwise pervasive field of bankruptcy prediction models. The authors aim to present state-of-the-art bankruptcy prediction models assembled by the field's core authors and critically examine the approaches and methods adopted.

The authors conducted a literature search in November 2022 through scientific databases Scopus, ScienceDirect and the Web of Science, focussing on a publication period from 2010 to 2022. The database search query was formulated as “Bankruptcy Prediction” and “Model or Tool”. However, the authors intentionally did not specify any model or tool to make the search non-discriminatory. The authors reviewed over 7,300 articles.

This paper has addressed the research questions: (1) What are the most important publications of the core authors in terms of the target country, size of the sample, sector of the economy and specialization in SME? (2) What are the most used methods for deriving or adjusting models appearing in the articles of the core authors? (3) To what extent do the core authors include accounting-based variables, non-financial or macroeconomic indicators, in their prediction models? Despite the advantages of new-age methods, based on the information in the articles analyzed, it can be deduced that conventional methods will continue to be beneficial, mainly due to the higher degree of ease of use and the transferability of the derived model.

The authors identify several gaps in the literature which this research does not address but could be the focus of future research.

The authors provide practitioners and academics with an extract from a wide range of studies, available in scientific databases, on bankruptcy prediction models or tools, resulting in a large number of records being reviewed. This research will interest shareholders, corporations, and financial institutions interested in models of financial distress prediction or bankruptcy prediction to help identify troubled firms in the early stages of distress.

Bankruptcy is a major concern for society in general, especially in today's economic environment. Therefore, being able to predict possible business failure at an early stage will give an organization time to address the issue and maybe avoid bankruptcy.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the core authors in the bankruptcy prediction model and methods field. The primary value of the study is the current overview and analysis of the theoretical and practical development of knowledge in this field in the form of the construction of new models using classical or new-age methods. Also, the paper adds value by critically examining existing models and their modifications, including a discussion of the benefits of non-accounting variables usage.

The purpose of this study is to develop a method to assess social performance. Traditionally, environment, social and governance (ESG) rating providers use subjectively weighted arithmetic averages to combine a set of social performance (SP) indicators into one single rating. To overcome this problem, this study investigates the preconditions for a new methodology for rating the SP component of the ESG by applying machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) anchored to social controversies.

This study proposes the use of a data-driven rating methodology that derives the relative importance of SP features from their contribution to the prediction of social controversies. The authors use the proposed methodology to solve the weighting problem with overall ESG ratings and further investigate whether prediction is possible.

The authors find that ML models are able to predict controversies with high predictive performance and validity. The findings indicate that the weighting problem with the ESG ratings can be addressed with a data-driven approach. The decisive prerequisite, however, for the proposed rating methodology is that social controversies are predicted by a broad set of SP indicators. The results also suggest that predictively valid ratings can be developed with this ML-based AI method.

This study offers practical solutions to ESG rating problems that have implications for investors, ESG raters and socially responsible investments.

The proposed ML-based AI method can help to achieve better ESG ratings, which will in turn help to improve SP, which has implications for organizations and societies through sustainable development.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is one of the first studies that offers a unique method to address the ESG rating problem and improve sustainability by focusing on SP indicators.

The purpose of this study is to shed light on the relationship between patent applications and long-term risk for small firms across the global financial crisis of 2008. During a crisis, firm risk often skyrockets, and small and medium enterprises face significant dangers to their business continuity. However, managers have a set of strategies that could be implemented to increase a firm’s resilience, sustaining competitive advantages and improving access to financial resource. The authors focused on the investigating the impact of patenting activities on small business risk in a time of crisis.

This is a quantitative study based on a sample of Italian firms that applied for a patent in 2005. The changes in corporate credit ratings over a five-year period are related to different proxies of patent activity using multivariate regression analysis.

Firms that filed for a patent were more resilient, compared to the control sample, during the financial crisis. Innovative activities resulting in patent application seem to deliver strategic resources useful to tackle the crisis rather than increase riskiness. The moderating effect of patents on risk sensitivity is stronger for small firms and when the number of patents or the patent intensity is larger.

Limited evidence is available on how patent applications are related to risks for small firms during an economic crisis. The authors highlight that the innovative efforts resulting in patent applications can support small business resilience. The authors also point out that the implementation of patent information in small firms' credit score modeling is still an uncommon practice, while it is useful in estimating firm risk in a way more robust to exogenous credit shocks.

Loan default risk or credit risk evaluation is important to financial institutions which provide loans to businesses and individuals. Loans carry the risk of being defaulted. To understand the risk levels of credit users (corporations and individuals), credit providers (bankers) normally collect vast amounts of information on borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyse or to determine the risk levels involved in loans. This paper aims to address the question of default prediction of short-term loans for a Tunisian commercial bank.

The authors have used a database of 924 files of credits granted to industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. The naive Bayesian classifier algorithm was used, and the results show that the good classification rate is of the order of 63.85 per cent. The default probability is explained by the variables measuring working capital, leverage, solvency, profitability and cash flow indicators.

The results of the validation test show that the good classification rate is of the order of 58.66 per cent; nevertheless, the error types I and II remain relatively high at 42.42 and 40.47 per cent, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve is plotted to evaluate the performance of the model. The result shows that the area under the curve criterion is of the order of 69 per cent.

The paper highlights the fact that the Tunisian central bank obliged all commercial banks to conduct a survey study to collect qualitative data for better credit notation of the borrowers.

El riesgo de incumplimiento de préstamos o la evaluación del riesgo de crédito es importante para las instituciones financieras que otorgan préstamos a empresas e individuos. Existe el riesgo de que el pago de préstamos no se cumpla. Para entender los niveles de riesgo de los usuarios de crédito (corporaciones e individuos), los proveedores de crédito (banqueros) normalmente recogen gran cantidad de información sobre los prestatarios. Las técnicas analíticas predictivas estadísticas pueden utilizarse para analizar o determinar los niveles de riesgo involucrados en los préstamos. En este artículo abordamos la cuestión de la predicción por defecto de los préstamos a corto plazo para un banco comercial tunecino.

Utilizamos una base de datos de 924 archivos de créditos concedidos a empresas industriales tunecinas por un banco comercial en 2003, 2004, 2005 y 2006. El algoritmo bayesiano de clasificadores se llevó a cabo y los resultados muestran que la tasa de clasificación buena es del orden del 63.85%. La probabilidad de incumplimiento se explica por las variables que miden el capital de trabajo, el apalancamiento, la solvencia, la rentabilidad y los indicadores de flujo de efectivo.

Los resultados de la prueba de validación muestran que la buena tasa de clasificación es del orden de 58.66% ; sin embargo, los errores tipo I y II permanecen relativamente altos, siendo de 42.42% y 40.47%, respectivamente. Se traza una curva ROC para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo. El resultado muestra que el criterio de área bajo curva (AUC, por sus siglas en inglés) es del orden del 69%.

El documento destaca el hecho de que el Banco Central tunecino obligó a todas las entidades del sector llevar a cabo un estudio de encuesta para recopilar datos cualitativos para un mejor registro de crédito de los prestatarios.

Curva ROC, Evaluación de riesgos, Riesgo de incumplimiento, Sector bancario, Algoritmo clasificador bayesiano.

Artículo de investigación

The purpose of this study is to examine the associations between board size, board independence and triple bottom line (TBL) reporting. The TBL report consists of three components, namely, environmental, social and economic indices.

This study’s sample consists of top 50 listed companies from the year 2017 to 2019 on Tadawul Stock Exchange. Ordinary least squares, quantile least squares and robust least squares are used to investigate the associations between board characteristics and TBL reporting, including its separate components.

The authors find a significant negative association between TBL reporting and board independence. Social bottom line is significantly and negatively related to board size and board independence. Results indicate that board independence negatively influences the TBL disclosure of companies. Therefore, companies are encouraged to embrace TBL reporting. This suggests that businesses should improve the quality of their reporting while ensuring that voluntary disclosures reflect an accurate and fair view in order to preserve a positive relationship with stakeholders.

The present study explains the evidence for the determinants of the TBL in Saudi Arabia.

The credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies are inaccurate and slow to respond to market changes. This paper aims to develop a rigorous, transparent and robust credit assessment and rating scheme for sovereigns.

This paper develops a regression-based model using credit default swap (CDS) data, and data on financial and macroeconomic variables to estimate sovereign CDS spreads. Using these spreads, the default probabilities of sovereigns can be estimated. The new ratings scheme is then used in conjunction with these default probabilities to assign credit ratings to sovereigns.

The developed model accurately estimates CDS spreads (based on RMSE values). Credit ratings issued retrospectively using the new scheme reflect reality better.

This paper reveals that both macroeconomic and financial factors affect both systemic and idiosyncratic risks for sovereigns.

The developed credit assessment and ratings scheme can be used to evaluate the creditworthiness of sovereigns and subsequently assign robust credit ratings.

The transparency and rigor of the new scheme will result in better and trustworthy indications of a sovereign’s financial health. Investors and monetary authorities can make better informed decisions. The episodes that occurred during the debt crisis could be avoided.

This paper uses both financial and macroeconomic data to estimate CDS spreads and demonstrates that both financial and macroeconomic factors affect sovereign systemic and idiosyncratic risk. The proposed credit assessment and ratings schemes could supplement or potentially replace the credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies.

This study aims to develop a high-quality impairment loss allowance model in conformity with Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 71 (PSAK 71) that has significant contribution to national interests and the banking industry.

The determination of the impairment loss allowance model is settled through 7 stages, using integration of some statistical methods such as Markov chain, exponential smoothing, time series analysis of behavioral inherent trends of probability of default, tail conditional expectation and Monte Carlo simulation.

The model which is developed by the authors is proven to be a high-quality and reliable model. By using the model, it can be shown that the implementation of the expected credit losses model on Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 71 is more prudent than the implementation of the incurred loss model on Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 55.

Determination of defaults was based on days past due, and the analysis in this study did not touch the aspects of hedge accounting in general.

This developed model will contribute significantly to national interests as a source of reference for other banks operating in Indonesia in calculating impairment loss allowance (CKPN) and can be used by the Financial Services Authority of Indonesia (OJK) as a guideline in assessing the formation of impairment loss allowance for banks operating in Indonesia.

As so far there is not yet an available standardized model for calculating impairment loss allowance on the basis of Indonesian Financial Accounting Standards 71, the model developed by the authors will be a new breakthrough in Indonesia.

This study aims to develop a model based on the financial variables for better accuracy of financial distress prediction on the sample of private French, Spanish and Italian firms. Thus, firms in financial difficulties could timely request for troubled debt restructuring (TDR) to continue business.

This study used a sample of 312 distressed and 312 non-distressed firms. It includes 60 French, 21 Spanish and 231 Italian firms in both distressed and non-distressed groups. The data are extracted from the ORBIS database. First, the authors develop a new model by replacing a ratio in the original Z”-Score model specifically for financial distress prediction and estimate its coefficients based on linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Second, using the modified Z”-Score model, the authors develop a firm TDR probability index for distressed and non-distressed firms based on the logistic regression model.

The new model (modified Z”-Score), specifically for financial distress prediction, represents higher prediction accuracy. Moreover, the firm TDR probability index accurately depicts the probabilities trend for both groups of distressed and non-distressed firms.

The findings of this study are conclusive. However, the sample size is small. Therefore, further studies could extend the application of the prediction model developed in this study to all the EU countries.

This study has important practical implications. This study responds to the EU directive call by developing the financial distress prediction model to allow debtors to do timely debt restructuring and thus continue their businesses. Therefore, this study could be useful for practitioners and firm stakeholders, such as banks and other creditors, and investors.

This study significantly contributes to the literature in several ways. First, this study develops a model for predicting financial distress based on the argument that corporate bankruptcy and financial distress are distinct events. However, the original Z”-Score model is intended for failure prediction. Moreover, the recent literature suggests modifying and extending the prediction models. Second, the new model is tested using a sample of firms from three countries that share similarities in their TDR laws.

Accounting information systems are mainly rule-based, and data are usually available and well-structured. However, many accounting systems are yet to catch up with current technological developments. Thus, artificial intelligence (AI) in financial accounting is often applied only in pilot projects. Using AI-based forecasts in accounting enables proactive management and detailed analysis. However, thus far, there is little knowledge about which prediction models have already been evaluated for accounting problems. Given this lack of research, our study aims to summarize existing findings on how AI is used for forecasting purposes in financial accounting. Therefore, the authors aim to provide a comprehensive overview and agenda for future researchers to gain more generalizable knowledge.

The authors identify existing research on AI-based forecasting in financial accounting by conducting a systematic literature review. For this purpose, the authors used Scopus and Web of Science as scientific databases. The data collection resulted in a final sample size of 47 studies. These studies were analyzed regarding their forecasting purpose, sample size, period and applied machine learning algorithms.

The authors identified three application areas and presented details regarding the accuracy and AI methods used. Our findings show that sociotechnical and generalizable knowledge is still missing. Therefore, the authors also develop an open research agenda that future researchers can address to enable the more frequent and efficient use of AI-based forecasts in financial accounting.

Owing to the rapid development of AI algorithms, our results can only provide an overview of the current state of research. Therefore, it is likely that new AI algorithms will be applied, which have not yet been covered in existing research. However, interested researchers can use our findings and future research agenda to develop this field further.

Given the high relevance of AI in financial accounting, our results have several implications and potential benefits for practitioners. First, the authors provide an overview of AI algorithms used in different accounting use cases. Based on this overview, companies can evaluate the AI algorithms that are most suitable for their practical needs. Second, practitioners can use our results as a benchmark of what prediction accuracy is achievable and should strive for. Finally, our study identified several blind spots in the research, such as ensuring employee acceptance of machine learning algorithms in companies. However, companies should consider this to implement AI in financial accounting successfully.

To the best of our knowledge, no study has yet been conducted that provided a comprehensive overview of AI-based forecasting in financial accounting. Given the high potential of AI in accounting, the authors aimed to bridge this research gap. Moreover, our cross-application view provides general insights into the superiority of specific algorithms.