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1 – 10 of over 1000
Article
Publication date: 17 April 2024

Jahanzaib Alvi and Imtiaz Arif

The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.

Abstract

Purpose

The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.

Design/methodology/approach

Annual data of non-financial listed companies were taken from 2000 to 2020, along with 71 financial ratios. The dataset was bifurcated into three panels with three default assumptions. Logistic regression (LR) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) binary classification algorithms were used to estimate credit default in this research.

Findings

The study’s findings revealed that features used in Model 3 (Case 3) were the efficient and best features comparatively. Results also showcased that KNN exposed higher accuracy than LR, which proves the supremacy of KNN on LR.

Research limitations/implications

Using only two classifiers limits this research for a comprehensive comparison of results; this research was based on only financial data, which exhibits a sizeable room for including non-financial parameters in default estimation. Both limitations may be a direction for future research in this domain.

Originality/value

This study introduces efficient features and tools for credit default prediction using financial data, demonstrating KNN’s superior accuracy over LR and suggesting future research directions.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Sakshi Khurana and Meena Sharma

This study aims to examine the impact of intellectual capital (IC) on default risk in Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of intellectual capital (IC) on default risk in Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies panel data regression analysis to derive a relationship between IC and default risk for the sample period 2013–2022. The value-added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) of Pulic (2000) has been applied to measure IC performance, and default risk is estimated using the revised Z-score model of Altman (2000).

Findings

The results revealed a positive association between Z-score and VAIC. It implies that a higher value of VAIC improves financial stability and leads to a lower likelihood of default. The findings further suggest that new default forecasting models can be experimented with IC indicators for better default prediction.

Practical implications

The findings can have implications for investors and banks. This paper provides evidence of IC performance in improving the financial solvency of firms. Investors and financial institutions should invest their resources in a healthy firm that effectively manages and invests in their IC. It will eventually award investors and creditors high returns through efficient value-creation processes.

Originality/value

This study provides evidence of IC performance in improving the financial solvency of Indian high-defaulting firms, which lacks sufficient evidence in this domain of research. Numerous studies exist examining the relationship between firm performance and IC value, but this area is inadequately focused and underresearched. This study, therefore, fills the research gap from an Indian perspective.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 December 2023

Asish Saha, Lim Hock-Eam and Siew Goh Yeok

The authors analyse the determinants of loan defaults in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loans in India from the survival duration perspective to draw inferences that…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors analyse the determinants of loan defaults in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loans in India from the survival duration perspective to draw inferences that have implications for lenders and policymakers.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the Kaplan–Meier survivor function and the Cox Proportional Hazard model to analyse 4.29 lakhs MSME loan account data originated by a large bank having a national presence from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2020.

Findings

The estimated Kaplan–Meier survival function by various categories of loan and socio-demographic characteristics reflects heterogeneity and identifies the trigger points for actions. The authors identify the key identified default drivers. The authors find that the subsidy amount is more effective at the lower level and its effectiveness diminishes significantly beyond an optimum level. The simulated values show that the effects of rising interest rates on survival rates vary across industries and types of loans.

Practical implications

The identified points of inflection in the default dynamics would help banks to initiate actions to prevent loan defaults. The default drivers identified would foster more nuanced lending decisions. The study estimation of the survival rate based on the simulated values of interest rate and subsidy provides insight for policymakers.

Originality/value

This study is the first to investigate default drivers in MSME loans in India using micro-data. The study findings will act as signposts for the planners to guide the direction of the interest rate to be charged by banks in MSME loans, interest subvention and tailoring subsidy levels to foster sustainable growth.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 November 2023

Jamil Jaber, Rami S. Alkhawaldeh and Ibrahim N. Khatatbeh

This study aims to develop a novel approach for predicting default risk in bancassurance, which plays a crucial role in the relationship between interest rates in banks and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a novel approach for predicting default risk in bancassurance, which plays a crucial role in the relationship between interest rates in banks and premium rates in insurance companies. The proposed method aims to improve default risk predictions and assist with client segmentation in the banking system.

Design/methodology/approach

This research introduces the group method of data handling (GMDH) technique and a diversified classifier ensemble based on GMDH (dce-GMDH) for predicting default risk. The data set comprises information from 30,000 credit card clients of a large bank in Taiwan, with the output variable being a dummy variable distinguishing between default risk (0) and non-default risk (1), whereas the input variables comprise 23 distinct features characterizing each customer.

Findings

The results of this study show promising outcomes, highlighting the usefulness of the proposed technique for bancassurance and client segmentation. Remarkably, the dce-GMDH model consistently outperforms the conventional GMDH model, demonstrating its superiority in predicting default risk based on various error criteria.

Originality/value

This study presents a unique approach to predicting default risk in bancassurance by using the GMDH and dce-GMDH neural network models. The proposed method offers a valuable contribution to the field by showcasing improved accuracy and enhanced applicability within the banking sector, offering valuable insights and potential avenues for further exploration.

Details

Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1059-5422

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2023

Evangelia Avgeri and Maria Psillaki

The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the…

Abstract

Purpose

The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that both P2P loan characteristics and macroeconomic variables have influence on loan performance. The authors define a set of loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic variables that are significant in determining the probability of default and should be taken into consideration when assessing credit risk.

Design/methodology/approach

The research question in this study is to find the significant explanatory variables that are essential in determining the probability of default for LendingClub loans. The empirical study is based on a total number of 1,863,491 loan records issued through LendingClub from 2007 to 2020Q3 and a logistic regression model is developed to predict loan defaults.

Findings

The results, in line with prior research, show that a number of borrower and contractual loan characteristics predict loan defaults. The innovation of this study is the introduction of specific macroeconomic indicators. The study indicates that macroeconomic variables assessed alongside loan data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default model. The general finding demonstrates that higher percentage change in House Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and S&P500 Index is associated with a lower probability of delinquency. The empirical results also exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate on P2P loan default rates.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for investors for whom it is of great importance to know the determinants of borrowers' creditworthiness and loan performance when estimating the investment in a certain P2P loan. In addition, the forecasting performance of the model could be applied by authorities in order to deal with the credit risk in P2P lending and to prevent the effects of increasing defaults on the economy.

Originality/value

This paper fulfills an identified need to shed light on the association between specific macroeconomic indicators and the default risk from P2P lending within an economy, while the majority of the existing literature investigate loan and borrower information to evaluate credit risk of P2P loans and predict the likelihood of default.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 July 2023

Lingling Zhao, Vito Mollica, Yun Shen and Qi Liang

This study aims to systematically review the literature in the fields of liquidity, informational efficiency and default risk. The authors outline the key research streams and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to systematically review the literature in the fields of liquidity, informational efficiency and default risk. The authors outline the key research streams and provide possible pathways for future research.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts bibliographic mapping to identify the most influential studies in the research fields of liquidity, informational efficiency and default risk from 1984 to 2021.

Findings

The study identifies four key research themes that include efficiency and transparency of markets; corporate yield spreads; market interactions: bonds, stocks and cryptocurrencies; and corporate governance. By assessing publications published from 2018 to 2021, the authors also document seven key emerging research trends: cross markets, managerial learning and corporate governance, state ownership and government subsidies, international evidence, machine learning (FinTech approaches), environmental themes and financial crisis. Drawing on these emerging trends, the authors highlight the opportunities for future research.

Research limitations/implications

Keyword searches have limitations since some studies might be overlooked if they do not match the specified search criteria, even though their relevance to the topic is under investigation. Adopt the R project to expand this review by incorporating more literature from other databases, such as the Scopus database could be a possible solution.

Practical implications

The four key research streams contribute to a comprehensive understanding of liquidity, informational efficiency and default risk. The emerging trends integrate existing knowledge and leave the chance for innovative research to expand the research frontier.

Originality/value

This study fulfills the systematic literature review streams in the fields of liquidity, informational efficiency and default risk, and provides fruitful opportunities for future research.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 January 2022

Muhammad Mushafiq, Syed Ahmad Sami, Muhammad Khalid Sohail and Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial performance with the moderation effect of the firm size.

Findings

This study establishes the findings that default risk significantly impacts the financial performance. The relationship between distance-to-default (DD) and financial performance is positive, which means the relationship of the independent and dependent variable is inverse. Moreover, this study finds that the firm size is a significant positive moderator between DD and financial performance.

Practical implications

This study provides new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between default risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors and businesses related to nonfinancial firms in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) with significant default risk's impact on performance. This study finds, on average, the default probability in KSE ALL indexed companies is 6.12%.

Originality/value

The evidence of the default risk and financial performance on samples of nonfinancial firms has been minimal; mainly, it has been limited to the banking sector. Moreover, the existing studies have only catered the direct effect of only. This study fills that gap and evaluates this relationship in nonfinancial firms. This study also helps in the evaluation of Merton model's performance in the nonfinancial firms.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Nawazish Mirza, Muhammad Umar, Rashid Sbia and Mangafic Jasmina

The blue and green firms are notable contributors to sustainable development. Similar to other businesses in circular economies, blue and green firms also face financing…

Abstract

Purpose

The blue and green firms are notable contributors to sustainable development. Similar to other businesses in circular economies, blue and green firms also face financing constraints. This paper aims to assess whether blue and green lending help in optimizing the interest rate spreads and the likelihood of default.

Design/methodology/approach

This analysis is based on an unbalanced panel of banks from 20 eurozone countries for eleven years between 2012 and 2022. The key indicators of banking include interest rate spread and a market-based probability of default. The paper assesses how these indicators are influenced by exposure to green and blue firms after controlling for several exogenous factors.

Findings

The results show a positive relationship between green and blue lending and spread, while there is a negative link with the probability of default. This confirms that the blue and green exposure positively supports the credit portfolio both in terms of profitability and risk management.

Originality/value

The banking system is among the key contributors to corporate finance and to enable continuous access to sustainable finance, the banking firms must be incentivized. While many studies analyze the impact of green lending, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the very few that extend this analysis to blue economy firms.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 February 2024

Anju Goswami and Pooja Malik

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused financial stress and limited their lending agility, resulting in more non-performing loans (NPLs) and lower performance during the II…

Abstract

Purpose

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused financial stress and limited their lending agility, resulting in more non-performing loans (NPLs) and lower performance during the II wave of the coronavirus crisis. Therefore, it is essential to identify the risky factors influencing the financial performance of Indian banks spanning 2018–2022.

Design/methodology/approach

Our sample consists of a balanced panel dataset of 75 scheduled commercial banks from three different ownership groups, including public, private and foreign banks, that were actively engaged in their operations during 2018–2022. Factor identification is performed via a fixed-effects model (FEM) that solves the issue of heterogeneity across different with banks over time. Additionally, to ensure the robustness of our findings, we also identify the risky drivers of the financial performance of Indian banks using an alternative measure, the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

Findings

Empirical evidence indicates that default risk, solvency risk and COVAR reduce financial performance in India. However, high liquidity, Z-score and the COVID-19 crisis enhance the financial performance of Indian banks. Unsystematic risk and systemic risk factors play an important role in determining the prognosis of COVID-19. The study supports the “bad-management,” “moral hazard” and “tail risk spillover of a single bank to the system” hypotheses. Public sector banks (PSBs) have considerable potential to achieve financial performance while controlling unsystematic risk and exogenous shocks relative to their peer group. Finally, robustness check estimates confirm the coefficients of the main model.

Practical implications

This study contributes to the knowledge in the banking literature by identifying risk factors that may affect financial performance during a crisis nexus and providing information about preventive measures. These insights are valuable to bankers, academics, managers and regulators for policy formulation. The findings of this paper provide important insights by considering all the risk factors that may be responsible for reducing the probability of financial performance in the banking system of an emerging market economy.

Originality/value

The empirical analysis has been done with a fresh perspective to consider unsystematic risk, systemic risk and exogenous risk (COVID-19) with the financial performance of Indian banks. Furthermore, none of the existing banking literature explicitly explores the drivers of the I and II waves of COVID-19 while considering COVID-19 as a dependent variable. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to make efforts in this direction.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 February 2024

Khurram Shahzad, Rizwan Ali and Ramiz Ur Rehman

This study aims to examine the nexus of corporate governance with firms' financial risk-taking behavior under the corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures in the context…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the nexus of corporate governance with firms' financial risk-taking behavior under the corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures in the context of non-financial listed firms of an emerging economy.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigates the relationship between corporate governance as evaluated by an index and several financial risks, including idiosyncratic, default and systematic risks. The connection of corporate governance with financial risks is also studied while considering the moderation of CSR disclosures. The data are collected from 2014 to 2018 of 73 top 100-index listed non-financial firms of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Panel regression fixed effect and 2-step generalized method of moments techniques are applied to confirm the hypothesis along with the diagnostic tests to confirm that all outcomes of models must be authentic and reliable.

Findings

The study’s findings confirm that enhancing the overall corporate governance measures resulted in an augment in the firm’s risk due to weak control and regulations prevailing in emerging economies. Moreover, CSR disclosures enhance stakeholder information, lessen information asymmetry about management policies and mitigate the risk associated with operational uncertainties.

Practical implications

This study has a practical implementation to policymakers that effective monitoring and controlling measures facilitate the corporate management for minimizing the financial risks. Further, the study’s findings shed light that implementing corporate governance measures is not enough to mitigate financial risks until supervisory measures in the form of CSR disclosures are not taken to analyse corporate governance effectiveness.

Originality/value

This paper enhances the key findings in the literature by examining the role of corporate governance measures with respect to firms’ financial risks considering the moderating role of CSR disclosures. Furthermore, this research adds to the body of knowledge regarding the implementation of monitoring measures that assist in the mitigation of firms’ financial risks hence firm value.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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