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Liquidity risk, i.e., the likelihood that a swap can be “sold” (i.e., assigned) may affect swap prices. This article addresses the importance of liquidity risk as a factor in the valuation of swaps, which are subject to default risk. The author presents a model for pricing these swaps by incorporating a proxy for liquidity risk. Using the model, the author finds that the effects of liquidity risk may partially offset the effects of default risk.

Prior research provides evidence that firms make accounting choices to avoid violation of debt covenant provisions and the resulting costs of technical default. We extend this research by asking why some firms refrain from making accounting policy changes when faced with costs of technical default. We considered two possible explanations. First, we hypothesise that these defaulting firms may lack the flexibility to make accounting changes. Second, we hypothesise that these defaulting firms may lack incentive to change accounting methods. Results confirm prior research and indicate that defaulting firms make more accounting changes than non‐defaulting firms. The decision by defaulting firms to change or not change accounting methods during the three years ending in the year of a technical default of debt covenants can be explained in part by the ability of the firm and by the incentives of the firm to make a change.

Drawing on the resource-based view (RBV), this study investigates how tax planning affects the likelihood of financial default in different stages of the corporate life cycle.

Collecting a large sample of US firms between 1989 and 2016, hypotheses are tested using a hazard model. Several robustness and endogeneity checks corroborate the main findings.

The results show that tax-planning firms are less likely to default in the introduction and decline stages, while they are more likely to default in the growth and maturity stages. The findings suggest that introductory and declining firms use cash resources obtained from tax planning efficiently to meet their needs and acquire other useful resources. In growing and mature firms, tax aggressiveness generates unnecessary slack resources, weakens managerial discipline and increases reputational risks.

The results shed light on the benefits and costs associated with tax planning throughout firms' life cycle, holding great significance for managers, investors, lenders and other stakeholders.

This study contributes to the literature that examines resource management at different life cycle stages by showing that cash resources from tax planning are managed in distinctive ways in each life cycle stage, having a varied impact on the likelihood of default. The authors shed light on underexplored cash resources. Furthermore, this study shows the potential linkages between the agency theory and RBV.

The aim of this study is to analyze the influence mechanism of real estate enterprises' status on debt default risk and explore the heterogeneity effect of the characteristics of enterprises.

Against the background of the “three red lines” regulation of the financing of real estate enterprises and the COVID-19 pandemic, the authors select 123 real estate enterprises listed on China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares markets from the first quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 as a research sample. The social network analysis method and Z-score financial risk early warning model are used to measure real estate enterprises' status and debt default risk. The authors construct a panel regression model to analyze how the status of real estate enterprises influences their debt default risk.

The results show that the status of real estate enterprises negatively and significantly affects their debt default risk. Economic policy uncertainty and financing constraints play negative moderating and mediating roles, respectively. Further research has found that the effect of real estate enterprises' status on debt default risk is characterized by heterogeneity in equity characteristics, i.e. it is significant in the sample of nonstate-owned enterprises but not in the sample of state-owned enterprises.

It is helpful for real estate enterprises to attach importance to the value of social networks, and the authors provide policy suggestions for real estate enterprises to constantly improve their risk management systems.

Using economic policy uncertainty as the moderating variable and financing constraints as the mediating variable, the authors analyze how the status of real estate enterprises influences debt default risk, which contributes to a better understanding of the formation of the debt default risk of real estate enterprises.

This paper aims to study the default risk of small and medium-sized enterprises in the construction sector.

An unbalanced sample of 2,754 Portuguese companies from the construction sector, from 2008 to 2020, is analysed. Companies are classified in default or compliant following an ex-ante criterion. Then, using the stepwise analysis, the most relevant variables are selected, which are later used in the logit model. To verify the robustness of the results, a sample of legally insolvent companies is added (mixed criterion) and the initial sample is split into two subperiods.

Financial variables are the most relevant to predict the pattern for this sample. The main conclusions show that smaller and older companies, more indebted, with more liquidity and with higher EBIT have a higher probability of default. These conclusions are confirmed using a mixed criterion to classify companies as default or compliant and including a macroeconomic dummy.

This work not only contributes to enlarging the literature review but also makes relevant contributions to practice. Companies from the construction sector can understand which indicators must control to avoid financial problems. The government also has relevant information that can help in adapting or creating regulations for recovering or revitalizing companies.

This study proposed an ex-ante criterion that can be used for all types of companies. Most works use a legal or a mixed criterion that does not allow for detecting signs of financial problems in advance. Moreover, the sample used is almost unexplored – SMEs from a sector with great mortality rate.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of female CEO board members on listed family firms’ corporate default risk, integrating upper echelons theory with social role theory and the socio-emotional wealth approach and proxying default risk with the Black–Scholes–Merton model. It also searches for possible differences attributable to the type of female CEO.

This study is applied to a longitudinal sample of listed US family firms. After a preliminary analysis of the main descriptive, several models are estimated with the system GMM estimator, which is a panel data estimator. The models are dynamic, including the lagged value of the dependent variable. In addition, the model estimation is repeated with a different measure of default risk, for robustness.

This research findings show that default risk diminishes in the presence of a female CEO, whose reduction is even greater if she is a family member. The results are proven to be robust to the measure for proxying default risk.

This study primarily contributes to the existing literature by exploring a possible link between female CEOs, particularly those with a family affiliation, and a lower level of default risk in family firms. It also provides practical implications for policymakers, who would be advised to promote conditions enabling women to contribute towards family business viability. In addition, this study offers encouragement for family business owners to value the potential of their female family members in company succession processes.

The Covid-19 pandemic has rekindled interest in sovereign debt crises amidst calls for debt relief for developing and emerging countries. But has debt relief lessened the debt burdens of emerging and developing economies? The purpose of this paper is to empirically address this question. In particular, the focus is on the implications of debt relief and institutional qualities for sovereign debt in emerging and developing economies.

The model extends the framework on the probability of default by incorporating the receipt of debt relief by a debtor country. Doing so allows to better explain movements of sovereign defaults relating to debt relief. The model is estimated via the regular probit regression.

The analysis shows that the debt relief provided, thus, far, failed to ease the debt overhang problems of developing and emerging countries and reduced investment. The current debt relief schemes may underscore the prospects of self-enforcing and self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises rather than eliminating the dilemma completely. Regarding the forms of debt relief, the analysis shows that debt forgiveness offers favourable prospects in terms of debt sustainability and economic outcomes than debt rescheduling. Perhaps, the sovereign debt crises, particularly in low-income countries, hinge on insolvency problems rather than transitory illiquidity issues.

Any debt relief mechanism should consider seriously the potential incentive effect that reinforces expectations of future debt-relief initiatives. Importantly, solving the sovereign debt problem requires a programme for sustained investment and economic growth, while not discounting the critical role of prudent debt management policies and institutions.

This study contributes a different angle to the debate on sovereign debt distress. Aside from the structural and economic factors, this study investigates the role of debt management policy in the debtor nation and the implications of debt relief benefits for sovereign risk. The framework also focuses on whether the different forms of debt relief exert distinctive impacts.

This paper aims to provide an overview, a classification of existing research groups for correlated default models using a reduced-form method and an identification of future research opportunities in the field.

A systematic literature review is used for the identification, selection, evaluation and synthesis of relevant literature using keywords regarding the reduced-form default models in the Web of Science database. The authors also add articles from cross-referencing and expert recommendations to the literature. HistCite^™ program is used to generate a citation map of the literature.

The results show that reduced-form correlated default risk models are developing towards modelling credit risk with both observable and unobservable variables. The frailty correlated default model at the firm level is still a potential research field.

This is the first paper systematically reviewing the research on reduced-form models of default timing.

This study aims to provide additional insights by further investigating the governance aspects including board composition, risk monitoring and management by the board, ownership structures as well as the incentive compensation.

This study investigates the relationships between corporate governance, risk-taking behaviors and default risk by analyzing 78 publicly listed Japanese regional banks during the 2007-2008 crisis period.

Banks that were more diversified in the run-up to the crisis were associated with higher default risk during the crisis. Foreign shareholders may have prompted banks to engage in higher risk-taking activities in pursuit of higher returns, putting banks at a higher risk of default. On the other hand, board-level risk management committees may have mitigated the risks to protect firms from rising default. Finally, banks perceived to have better quality accounting information, by being audited by one of the Big 4 auditors, benefitted by mitigating price misevaluation and thus reducing default risk during the crisis.

Different from the majority of previous related studies on the relationship between governance and performance of stock returns, the current study focuses on the relationship between governance and default risk during the crisis which has a more direct link through which governance practices can affect risk-taking behaviors and thus the default risk during the crisis. In addition to examining conventional governance aspects, this study also focuses on the more relevant aspects of banks’ risk monitoring functions.

This article surveys available research on the contingent‐claims approach to risky debt valuation. The author describes both the structural and reduced form versions of contingent claims models and summarizes both the theoretical and empirical research in this area. Relative to the progress made in the theory of risky debt valuation, empirical validation of these models lags far behind. This survey highlights the increasing gap between the theoretical valuation and the empirical understanding of risky debt.